IDSA Comments

For 62 hours, from the night of November 26 to the morning of November 29, the city of Mumbai was held hostage to terror attacks. A significant element in these attacks was the willingness of the terrorists to engage security forces in a frontal gun battle. Earlier attacks have generally involved simultaneous bomb blasts in crowded market places, hospitals and office complexes. The intensity and meticulous planning that went into the attacks are of an unprecedented nature.

• Namrata Goswami |
• December 05, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

The global financial crisis which had been brewing for some time began to unfold in the middle of 2008. Stock markets around the world have nosedived, large financial institutions have collapsed or been bought out, and governments of even the wealthiest nations have had to come up with rescue packages to rescue their financial systems. The crisis stemmed from the collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market and the reversal of the housing boom in other industrialised economies.

• Gunjan Singh |
• December 04, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

The November 2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai which left more than 170 people killed and close to 300 injured did not conform to the pattern to which Indian security agencies have got accustomed to over a period of time. Except for the suicide attack on the CRPF Group Centre, Rampur (UP) at the beginning of 2008, terrorists had generally resorted to detonating improvised explosive devices in crowded places to cause maximum casualties.

• Satinder K. Saini |
• December 03, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

Evidence gathered in the aftermath of by far the most deadly terrorist attack in Mumbai indicates conclusively that the attack was planned by the Pakistan based Lashkar-e-Toiba. The attack on Mumbai was executed by a well trained and indoctrinated suicide squad comprising of ten Pakistani terrorists. This testifies to the long gestation planning and preparation that can only have been made possible by the resources of a well established terrorist organization. The recruitment was from Punjab, training was in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, and maritime training was conducted in Karachi.

• Ali Ahmed |
• December 03, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

The number of violent incidents in Pakistan increased from 309 in September 2008 to 346 in October 2008. Yet, casualty figures decreased from 1342 to 1081.1 This shows that Pakistan’s security forces have succeeded in controlling the level of violence, even though current levels are still unacceptably high. 582 suspected militants, most of them from the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) were also arrested by the security forces during the month, in military operations as well as during searches in various areas.

• T. Khurshchev Singh , Alok Bansal |
• December 02, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

During his November 2008 visit to Oman and Qatar, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh signed two memoranda of understanding with Oman and three with Qatar. The MOUs with Qatar were on defence and security, investment, energy and manpower development.

• Zakir Hussain |
• December 02, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

Hydrocarbon rich Bay of Bengal seems to be emerging as another centre of oil politics. This was recently manifested by a standoff between Myanmar and Bangladesh, when Dhaka sent three naval vessels to stop Myanmar from conducting exploration activities in their disputed Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). The crisis has since been diffused, though it is far from over.

• Anand Kumar |
• November 27, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

The dust might have settled on the US Elections with Barack Obama ensuring a place in history as the first African American President to occupy the White House. The moot question now is whether the dust will begin to fly in South Asia as the new Administration begins to formulate new policies with regard to the region. It is also inevitable that existing policies would also be modified to bring them in synch with the substantially different worldview of the Democratic Party which has reclaimed the White House after eight years.

• Cherian Samuel |
• November 24, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

It has been reported that Russia has demanded US $3.5 billion from India for the aircraft carrier, Gorshkov, which is currently undergoing repairs. This is the second time that Russia has sought a price increase from the original contracted amount of $1.5 billion. Given the hike in its price and the further delay in the date of delivery, the deal has naturally attracted comment, with some people even questioning the very wisdom of having gone for the ship.

• N. Neihsial |
• November 21, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee's recent outburst that China poses a security challenge indicates a dangerous ambiguity in India’s China policy. The fact that Mukherjee has aired such a view after his intense and long diplomatic rapport with the leadership of that country needs to be noted seriously. It is not that China has not been a puzzle to Indian strategic thinkers. Even former Defence Minister George Fernandes considered China as India’s number one enemy, but his views were transformed after he paid an official visit to Beijing.

• P. Stobdan |
• November 18, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

The contention that stability in Afghanistan is linked to the resolution of the Kashmir issue is fallacious. It only serves the interests of a particular interest group, which has consistently tried to link stability in the subcontinent to the Kashmir issue, and which is now illogically stretching this argument to include stability in Afghanistan. This argument gives the impression that the dynamics in the two cases are interlinked, when they clearly are not.

• Smruti S. Pattanaik |
• November 18, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

If current developments are any indicator, the long road to economic integration on either side of the Taiwan Straits has commenced. In a first of its kind, a sixty member delegation led by Chen Yunlin, Chairman of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) visited Taiwan from November 3-7, 2008 to hold talks with his counterpart Chiang Pin-kung, Chairman of the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF). ARATS and SEF are two non-governmental organisations authorised by China and Taiwan in the early 1990s to examine the entire gamut of cross-Strait relations.

• Raviprasad Narayanan |
• November 14, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

The year 2008 has seen terrorist attacks in Jaipur, Bangalore, Ahmedabad, New Delhi, Agartala, Imphal, and now Assam. The month of October alone witnessed terrorist attacks in Tripura and Manipur, before the October 30 serial bomb blasts in Assam. On October 1, four explosions in Agartala left two civilians dead and nearly 100 injured, while the blasts in Imphal on October 21 killed 18 civilians. The 9 serial blasts in Assam on October 30 killed 83 civilians and injured more than 300.

• Namrata Goswami , Dilip Gogoi |
• November 14, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

In August 2006, IDSA published a web commentary titled “Is Kerala emerging as India’s new terror hub?” The events of the past few months, especially the shocking revelation of militants from Kerala operating in Kashmir, have validated the concerns raised by this report.

• A. Vinod Kumar |
• November 11, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

In the just concluded two-day conference at the IDSA on “Changing Political Context in India’s Neighbourhood: Prospects of Regional Cooperation”, Dr Hari P. Bhattaria from Tribhuvan University, Nepal alluded to the problem of integration of over 19,000 former Maoists in the Nepal Army or para-military forces in Security Sector Reforms.

• P. K. Gautam |
• November 11, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

While the Draft Nuclear Doctrine of August 1999 was an elaborate document, the press release of the Cabinet Committee on Security on India’s operationalisation of its nuclear doctrine of January 4, 2003 was, on the other hand, very succinct.

• Ali Ahmed |
• November 11, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

President Bush will host the first ever financial summit of the G-20 on November 15, 2008 in Washington to discuss the current global financial crisis which threatens the economic and political stability through out the world. The crisis comes on the heels of an economic crisis in the global economy in the first half of 2008 which was characterised by a record level of oil prices, global food shortages, high inflation and rising inflation in most countries.

• Arvind Gupta |
• November 05, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

Although September coincides with the holy month of Ramzan in the Islamic calendar, the violence in Pakistan during the month surpassed that in August, which itself was the most violent month. Despite the fasting and sanctity accorded to Ramzan in Islam, it is also associated with Shahadat (martyrdom) and people laying down their life during this holy month are often considered Shaheeds (martyrs). This probably explains to some extent the extremely enhanced level of violence in Pakistan during September 2008 and why various Ramzan ceasefires negotiated in August and September floundered.

• T. Khurshchev Singh , Alok Bansal |
• November 03, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

The two recent glorious achievements - the Olympics and spacewalk mission – seem to have transcended China to a new global height with wide implications for the world’s strategic balance. From all accounts, analysts suggest that China will not only survive but has also gained from the recent global financial meltdown.

• P. Stobdan |
• October 27, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

As the saying goes, everything that goes up had to come down. The same holds true for the price of oil, which has seen a slide of around 55% in just three months. At one point of time there were even predictions that prices would reach $200 a barrel. However, currently, the price of oil has dropped to $68 a barrel, from a high of over $147 in July this year. But the question is how and more importantly, why did this happen, and in such a short time.

• Shebonti Ray Dadwal |
• October 24, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments