IDSA Comments

Nagaland has been up in flames for quite sometime now. For the past eight months or so, heavy inter-factional killings between the National Socialist Council of Nagalim-Isak-Muivah [NSCN (IM)], the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang [NSCN (K)], and the newly formed National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Unification [NSCN (U)], have been vitiating the atmosphere there. On July 9, clashes between the NSCN (IM) and the NSCN (U) in Diphupar village led to the death of a few insurgents.

• Namrata Goswami |
• July 23, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

The July 7 attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul which left 58 people dead including four Indians and more than 140 wounded was a highly provocative act. Those responsible for the attack are well known, and their objectives are also not a matter of speculation. It is understood that the Indian government should be taking far more stringent security measures to minimise the recurrence of such attacks on its embassy, consulates, and reconstruction projects in Afghanistan.

• Vishal Chandra |
• July 18, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

In many ways the story of Punjab is anomalous to the stylized facts of civil war literature. Empirical literature on civil wars points to a negative correlation between income and likelihood of conflict. There is also cross-country evidence to suggest that rough terrain contributes to greater possibility of violence. Both these facts did not hold in the case of Punjab. However, recent research on terrorism supports the view that terrorism is not correlated with poverty and lower education levels.

• Prakarsh Singh |
• July 18, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

Ordnance Factories constitute a major segment of India’s defence industrial set- up, whose other constituents are the Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs), the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and varied Service-specific workshops, repair and maintenance establishments. The gross production of ordnance factories during the year 2005-06 was Rs. 8811.59 crores. Total sales including issues to armed forces and other agencies and civil trade in the same year was Rs. 6891.68 crores. This constitutes approximately 40 per cent of domestic supplies to the armed forces.

• N. Neihsial |
• July 17, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

Now that the IAEA Draft Agreement is on the World Wide Web and the Communists have withdrawn their support to the UPA, it is reasonable to assume that the next few steps will also follow in good time. The alacrity with which the Americans have drafted their letter to the 45 members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group is remarkable and shows that the Bush administration is indeed very keen to see the deal through before its term ends at the end of the year. What we are not so sure of, however, is the future of the UPA and the Congress.

• Ramesh Phadke |
• July 17, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

The July 7 gruesome attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul, which resulted in the loss of over 40 lives including those of two senior diplomats, is clearly a high value symbolic attack directed at coercing India into scaling down its growing presence in rebuilding war ravaged Afghanistan. It is a clear reminder, following as it does a series of low and small scale attacks on Indians in previous months and years, that the Indian presence is continuing to hamper the interests of Pakistan which is bent upon regaining its lost ‘strategic depth’ in that country.

• Shanthie Mariet D'Souza |
• July 09, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

On the face of it, India and NATO are poles apart. NATO is a military alliance. India is a non-aligned country with an independent foreign policy. Any engagement between India and NATO is, therefore, problematic.

• Arvind Gupta |
• July 08, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

France has taken over the half-yearly presidency of the European Union (EU) Council from Slovenia on July 1. The change of guard at the helm of the EU is a routine affair. However, the French presidency of the Union seems to point to a new impetus in EU affairs, as it is the first opportunity after Nicolas Sarkozy took the reins at The Élysée Palace. At present European affairs are more or less a rerun of the summer of 2005 when the French and Dutch electorates rejected the EU Constitution. This experience is again being enacted with Irish voters rejecting the Lisbon Treaty in June.

• Alok Rashmi Mukhopadhyay |
• July 07, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

On May 27, 2008, participants from 91 countries assembled in Washington to commemorate the fifth anniversary of the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) – a controversial counterproliferation initiative launched by President George W. Bush in Krakow, Poland on May 31, 2003, with a view to improve global coordination to intercept shipments of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and related materials by ‘rogue’ states and terrorist groups.

• A. Vinod Kumar |
• July 07, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

Every year the United States releases a report on global terrorist activities as required by its domestic law. The latest report is titled Country Reports on Terrorism and includes developments in countries in which acts of terrorism occurred as well as countries that are state sponsors of terrorism. It also provides information on terrorist groups responsible for the death, kidnapping, or injury of Americans. An analysis of these reports over the last few years reveals significant changes in the American perspective on terrorism over the years, especially with reference to Pakistan.

• Satinder K. Saini |
• July 02, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

The central leadership of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) is under pressure following the announcement of a unilateral ceasefire by a section of its cadres. ULFA’s top leaders are likely to have a tough time ahead in keeping their outfit together. However, for the sake of peace and security of Assam, it is advisable for the Government of India to pursue the peace dialogue with a united ULFA rather than with a breakaway faction.

• M. Amarjeet Singh |
• July 02, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

Kabul has for long been wary of Pakistan’s idea of negotiating ‘peace’ deals with Taliban militants operating out of its north-western tribal areas. Pakistan’s earlier peace deals in 2004 and in 2006 were short-lived and had helped the Taliban emerge stronger. Moreover, the 2006 North Waziristan Pact had led to a notable surge in Taliban attacks west of the Durand Line.

• Vishal Chandra |
• June 30, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

Encouraging developments on either side of the Taiwan Straits have taken place recently, considerably reducing the ‘shrill atmospherics’ surrounding ‘independence’ and ‘invasion’ by several notches. The primary determinant driving these developments has undoubtedly been the Kuomintang’s (KMT) coming to power in the legislative elections held in March 2008.

• Raviprasad Narayanan |
• June 23, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

Where are India-China relations heading, given repeated Chinese claims in recent years to Indian territory and a noticeable hardening of its position beginning with Sun Yuxi’s statements on Arunachal Pradesh in 2006? The latest Chinese claim is on Sikkim’s finger tip region, which came up a few weeks before Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee’s four-day visit to China between 4 and 7 June 2008.

• Abanti Bhattacharya |
• June 23, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

Insurgency movements in India’s northeast would appear to be even more intractable and beyond solution if not for the ongoing ceasefires and peace negotiations between the government and two dozen outfits in various states. Products of the efforts by community based organisations, official initiatives or the plain bankruptcy of ideas of the rebel outfits, such negotiations have been the harbinger of tranquillity in many areas of the region.

• Shanthie Mariet D'Souza |
• June 19, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

In early May 2008 Tata Group of India and Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd (IAI) signed an agreement to establish a joint venture (JV) in India to develop, produce and support defence products such as missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), radars, electronic warfare (EW) systems and homeland security (HLS) systems. The agreement is in sync with Tata’s broader objective of becoming a “lead system integrator” in the Indian private sector, by consolidating its own resources, diversifying into various fields of production and forging partnerships with major global defence companies.

• Laxman Kumar Behera |
• June 17, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

With elections looming large in both countries and the Indo-US nuclear deal facing its moment of truth, the inevitable question will arise as to who has gained how much from the Strategic Partnership that was signed with great fanfare in July 2005. This is not withstanding the fact that the failure of the nuclear deal would undoubtedly be a setback for both countries and besmirch the reputations of those leaders who had put their personal prestige on the line. It would also reflect poorly on the political parties and the governments involved in various ways.

• Cherian Samuel |
• June 16, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

The release of Sheikh Hasina on ‘parole’ for two months has generated hope for the stalled political dialogue and uncertainty over the scheduled Parliamentary elections in December 2008. The Awami League (AL) had earlier demanded the unconditional release of Hasina. But it appears that after hectic negotiations between some of the advisors of the Caretaker Government (CTG) and Hasina, a political understanding was worked out that ultimately saw her being freed. It has given hope to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) about the release of their leader as well from jail.

• Smruti S. Pattanaik |
• June 16, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

In a disturbing sign, the Chinese seem to have brought up Sikkim and not Arunachal Pradesh back to the table during the recent visit of Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee to China. The belief was that China had implicitly recognised Indian sovereignty over Sikkim in 2003, and as such there was no dispute on the matter with China. China’s recognition of Sikkim was interpreted as a quid pro quo for India’s recognition of total Chinese sovereignty over Tibet in 2003.

• P. Stobdan |
• June 13, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

As the new political dispensation in Pakistan negotiates new deals with militants in the country’s Pakhtoon belt, it is causing consternation among its neighbours. The deals have been signed in Swat Valley, Mardan, Mohmand and Bajour Agency, and in all probability with Baitullah Mehsud the leader of ‘Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan’ in Waziristan. However, the Pakistan government would like to retain deniability vis-à-vis the last of these deals, so as not to ruffle too many feathers in the United States or Afghanistan.

• Alok Bansal |
• June 13, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments