IDSA Comments

Learning the right lessons on the just concluded counter insurgency operations in Sri Lanka

The death of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eeelam (LTTE) leader Prabhakran closes a chapter in the first counter insurgency success of the 21st century by military means. A greater challenge in nation building now faces the Sri Lankan people - integrating the Tamils in their society dominated by Sinhala Buddhists.

Purely from a military point of view some important lessons and some areas of further inquiry emerge. In brief they are:

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Space as the Source of Our Future Energy

The idea is to launch giant orbiting solar collectors into space, where there is no night, and beam the power to receivers on the ground, where it is fed as electricity to the grid. Long championed by former President Dr. Abdul Kalam, and the Aerospace Society of India (AeSI), the idea is seen as a long-term solution for energy security and climate change, and the most environmentally benign and scalable renewable energy option, which deserves its own focused development programme.

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India needs to watch the evolving US position on nuclear issues

On April 5, 2009, President Barack Obama delivered a landmark speech in Prague in which he outlined the US policy on nuclear weapons. Speaking of the need to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in national security, he expressed his commitment to a world without nuclear weapons. He said that the US will negotiate a treaty with Russia on the reduction of strategic weapons before the end of this year when the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) expires. He also said his administration would try and secure the ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) from the US Congress.

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Terrorism, ideology and misconceptions

Terrorism is at the forefront of international politics and is a major crisis of our age. Not found in pre-modern times, this phenomenon finds its root in ideological movements and not in religion. While referring to different forms of terrorism several scholars have suggested nihilism in modern times as the source of the problem. They view nihilism as a decline in values, or in other words, a tendency of ‘devaluing all values’.

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The Indian Military and the Environment

Environmental degradation, climate change and ozone depletion are complex challenges which need to be addressed by society. The equipment intensive military with high budgets, fossil fuel consumption, and extensive use of chemicals also owns prime real estate such as military stations and cantonments.

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China’s Inroads into Nepal: India’s Concerns

The political crisis that triggered off in Nepal with Prime Minster Prachanda’s resignation yet again indicates not only the trials and tribulations of a fledgling democratic process but also points to the geopolitical vulnerability of the country sandwiched as it is between the two Asian giants. While India considers Nepal a part of its sphere of influence, it is increasingly being challenged by China’s inroads into Nepal. In fact, the growing Nepal-China nexus should be seen in the context of India-China power competition in Asia.

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Violence in Pakistan: Trend Analysis March 2009

Consequent to the peace deals signed by the Pakistani state with Taliban, the number of terror-related incidents in March came down in regions, which have been afflicted with violence in the recent past such as NWFP, FATA and Balochistan. However, there was an increase in terrorist violence in other parts of Pakistan, thereby indicating a shift of Taliban’s theatre of operations from its traditional conflict zones to the heartland of Pakistan.

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Nepal: Precarious Peace Process

Ever since the peace agreement signed between the Maoists and Nepal government in 2006, Nepal has been in the middle of political crisis delaying the constitution making process. The recent row between the Nepal Army and the government leading to the resignation of Prime Minister, Pushpa Kamal Dahal protesting the President’s intervention in the decision, has aggravated the situation further. The fact is that UCPN-Maoist is not only the largest political party in the Parliament but also important to the success of peace process. The House needs two-third’s majority to pass the bills.

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Rafale: the doomed French bird

Is the French 4th+generation fighter aircraft doomed? This question must be anguishing people in Dassault and the French government. The Rafale has not won any contract in the export market since its entry into service in 2004 and is now apparently out of race for the MMRCA contract. What lies behind all these repeated commercial fiascos? The Rafale lost five major bids against its US counterparts in recent years: in South Korea (2002), Singapore (2005), Saudi Arabia (2007), Morocco (2007) and apparently India.

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Food Price Rise: An Ethanol Twist

The recent food price inflation leading to food insecurity has been one of the immediate and striking outcomes of the recent oil price spikes and the global financial meltdown. This has triggered a chain reaction leading to the diversion of arable land in the form of overseas land grabs, and agreements between commercial food and finance industry. For instance, corns and scare economic resources are being diverted to the production of green bio-fuels such as ethanol and bio-diesel.

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Masses in Flight: The Crisis of Internal Displacement in Sri Lanka

The exodus from the conflict zone in Sri Lanka as well as the plight of those still trapped in it have not only become a major focus of international attention, but also raise questions about President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s ‘peace through war strategy’. The Sri Lankan government’s case for the final assault on a weakened LTTE irrespective of the “human catastrophe” needs to be challenged. Neither is there a guarantee that life for the affected population will change for the better once they leave government-controlled areas, indicating that the war could drag on indefinitely.

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New Challenges Confront ASEAN

The collapse of the ASEAN Summit in Pattaya (Thailand) on April 11 following anti-government protests tarnished Thailand’s image. It also brought the regional group’s age-old policy of non-interference in the domestic trivials of a member state under question. The incident impeded ASEAN’s strategy to define a common approach to current global financial crisis. The Pattaya incident also demonstrated the ineffectiveness of ASEAN as a regional organization.

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Violence in Pakistan: Trend Analysis February 2009

Highlight of the month was the peace deal signed by the NWFP government with the founder of Tehrik Nifaz Shariat-e- Mohammadi (TNSM), Sufi Mohammad. The deal did bring some ‘peace’ to the restive region but virtually handed over half the territory of NWFP to the Taliban by accepting Shariat laws for Malkand Division and Kohistan district of Hazara Division. As a result, the number of terror related incidents in Pakistan decreased from 430 in January to 374 in February 2009.

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Fighting the Taliban : Challenges for Pakistan Army

Rise of the Taliban in the frontier provinces of Pakistan portends several challenges to the Pakistan establishment, a fact that has lately raised much alarm and concern amongst the international community and in the region. The speed and vengeance with which several militant groups have rallied under the leadership of Baitullah Mehsud and Mullah Falazullah undoubtedly puts Pakistan’s military on an acid test. The Pakistan Army to date has tackled the problem half heartedly in the troubled region.

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Obama First 100 Days: Inherited Challenges and the Legacy Tripod

April 29 marked the first 100 days of the presidency of Barack Obama. Urgency, pragmatism and engagement have marked his method of tackling the enormous challenges bequeathed to him by the previous administration. Complimenting this three-pronged approach in dealing with inherited challenges, the Obama administration has also initiated major policy moves with ambitious agendas encompassing a triad of issues - nuclear disarmament, energy independence and climate change.

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Exit Points and the Updation of Cold Start Doctrine

The Army Commander’s conference is a much looked forward to biannual feature in the strategic calendar. The occasion, and like conferences in the other two services, is used by the forces, among other things, to sensitise the nation as to their preparedness and important decisions taken and measures underway. In April 2004, a major initiative of the Army was communicated, that of adoption by the Army of the Cold Start doctrine.

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India and Kuwait: New Hopes and Aspirations

The recent three day visit of Indian Vice President Hamid Ansari to Kuwait fills a three decade diplomatic gap between the two countries. The visit was highly successful to the extent that besides interactions in the fields of science and technology, education and emphasizing the relevance of cultural exchanges, it brought international terrorism within the ambit of bilateral discussions.

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Growing al Qaeda Threat in Yemen

Yemen has witnessed a number of al Qaeda-led activities in recent weeks. A suicide bomber killed four South Korean tourists in the city of Shibam in Hadramaut province on March 15, 2009. Three days later, al Qaeda attempted an attack on the convoy of the South Korean official delegation that was investigating these killings. These are the latest in a series of attacks on foreigners and foreign-run establishments in the country.

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Af-Pak Plan: Responding to Holbrooke’s Diplomacy

Much as the text of Obama’s new ‘Af-Pak’ plan echoes India’s traditional concerns, it may turn out to be contrary to India’s interest with unseen implications in the longer term. Obama’s outlined strategy has been described as a ‘bold bid’ ‘bottom-up’ ‘comprehensive’ ‘pragmatic’ and even a ‘game changer’ approach.

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