Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
मनोहर पर्रिकर रक्षा अध्ययन एवं विश्लेषण संस्थान

The Mistaken History of the Korean War: What We Got Wrong Then and Now by Paul M. Edwards

 For Koreans, the Korean War was undoubtedly a watershed moment, which cemented the bifurcation of Korean Peninsula that continues more than seventy years after the fact. It is impossible to segregate the Korean War from the history of United States. US had, after all, provided for around 5.7 million personnel in the UN initiative against North Korean ingression into South Korea. Read More

The Arctic Frontier: Geopolitical Chessboard of Major Powers?

 The Arctic region, once considered a distant and inhospitable corner of the world, is rapidly emerging as a focal point in global geopolitics. Harvard International Review (HIR) argues that “nations have begun to engage in a modern gold rush over the region’s unclaimed territory, natural resources and strategic position”.1 This transformation is driven by a confluence of factors: the region’s substantial mineral wealth,2 the strategic importance of newly accessible maritime shipping lanes,3 the unique opportunities for scientific discovery,4 and the broader implications for global politics.5 As the Arctic ice cover diminishes at an unprecedented rate due to climate change, the region’s significance is magnified, drawing the attention of major global powers and reshaping international relations. Its vast mineral resources are at the heart of the Arctic’s growing importance. Estimates suggest that the region harbours a significant portion of the world’s untapped reserves of oil and natural gas, with projections indicating that the Arctic could contain about 13 per cent (90 billion barrels) of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30 per cent of its undiscovered natural gas (USGC).6 These figures highlight the Arctic as a critical energy security and economic opportunity area, particularly as traditional reserves in more accessible regions become depleted. Read More

Outer Space as a Global Commons: Evolving Governance and the Challenges of the 21st Century

 Space has long been considered a domain beyond territorial claims, governed by international treaties that emphasised cooperation and peaceful exploration. However, in the face of rapid technological advances, the increasing involvement of private entities in space, and the rise of new space powers, the concept of space as a global commons is being fundamentally redefined. While the 1967 Outer Space Treaty (OST) laid the foundational principles for the peaceful use of outer space, it has become increasingly inadequate in addressing the complex dynamics of 21st-century space exploration. This commentary explores the challenges and opportunities in rethinking the governance structures for outer space, emphasising the need for updated international legal frameworks to safeguard space as a domain for the benefit of humanity. Read More

A NATO Sans USA

 The newly elected American President’s constant threat on pulling America out of NATO labelling them as potential liabilities has not gone well with its European partners. His far from charitable description that he would cease defending allies that spend less than the stipulated percentage on defence has got the nations thinking on an alternate arrangement if the USA chooses to abandon the alliance. The Europeans should quit underestimating themselves and brace up for joint efforts to ward off American bullying. The Europeans are undoubtedly technological powerhouses and all have standing armies which cross-exercise at regular intervals and keep themselves battle-ready. It is necessary for NATO to step out on its own and create its own individuality sans the USA. Read More

Enhancing Ballistic Missile Defence: Comparing AI-Integrated Systems with Traditional Approaches

 The Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) systems play a significant role in national security, and are designed to detect, track and intercept incoming missiles. Beginning in the 1950s, they have undergone rapid evolution in consonance with the advancement in technology. Artificial Intelligence (AI), in particular, has proven to be a transformative force in bolstering the capabilities of BMD systems. Against this backdrop, this article analyses the efficiency and effectiveness of AI-integrated missile defence systems compared to traditional non-AI systems under different operational conditions and scenarios. Leveraging machine learning algorithms, neural networks and real-time data processing, AI increases detection accuracy, reduces false positives and improves interception success rates. The article relies on quantitative analysis based on t-tests, statistical performance analysis and simulations under diverse conditions. The findings indicate that AI-integrated systems significantly outperform traditional systems in detection latency, false positive rates and interception success. Furthermore, the article analyses the potentially vulnerable sites, challenges and ethical considerations related to AI integration in missile defence, stressing the need for human oversight in the decision-making process. This research underscores the strategic advantages and limitations of AI-enhancing defence capabilities against advanced missile threats. Read More

Safeguarding National Interests: Evaluating the Risks of Defence – Civilian Airport Proximity

 This article examines the risks posed by the proximity of military facilities to civilian airports, particularly in the context of the Indian Air Force (IAF) as well as Indian Naval Air Station sites adjacent to commercial hubs. It highlights concerns regarding unauthorised access to sensitive information, infrastructure and potential terrorist threats. The article advocates for relocating civil installations away from military airports to bolster national security. Given the rapid expansion of both civilian and military aviation, the current joint-use model will become increasingly strained, leading to operational inefficiencies and heightened security risks. Implementing advanced monitoring, enhanced cybersecurity protocols, and stronger coordination between civilian and military authorities is essential in the short-term. However, relying solely on security enhancements within existing limitations offers only a partial solution, as the continued growth of air traffic will exacerbate congestion and security concerns. A phased transition towards dedicated civilian and military airport infrastructure remains the most viable long-term approach to safeguarding national security while ensuring sustainable aviation growth. This article underscores the importance of balancing immediate security needs with long-term infrastructure planning to address the evolving challenges of the aviation sector. There is a need for stringent security measures, including enhanced monitoring and cybersecurity protocols, and cooperation between civilian and military authorities. This article also addresses technological vulnerabilities such as electronic eavesdropping and GPS spoofing, thereby urging the development of strategies to mitigate these risks. Read More

India’s Quest for Self-Reliance in Defence Sector: Reality Check, Challenges and Way Ahead

 Given the prevalence of numerous security challenges, India’s high dependence on other countries for its defence requirements stands out as a serious vulnerability in the national security calculus. In 2024, India was the world’s second largest importer of arms, just behind Ukraine, with an 8.3 per cent share of global arms import between 2020 and 2024. This situation can be largely attributed to the absence of a long-term national security strategy due to lack of political direction marked by narrow perspective, absence of indigenous research and pursuit of technology unaligned with military objectives. While India did make attempts to achieve self-reliance, the outcome was not encouraging due to the domination of the public sector entities coupled with bureaucratic gridlocks. To revitalise India’s armament industry, the present government, under ‘Atmanirbharta/Make in India’ programme has initiated slew of defence reforms which include rationalisation of the acquisition and procurement procedures, restructuring of the key bodies and the establishment of Defence Industrial Corridors (DICs). While the Indian defence industry has made significant progress, including increase in defence exports, it still has a long way to traverse. The indigenisation achieved so far pertains to low-technology items, while many initiatives remain non-starters. To overcome these challenges, India requires a National Security Strategy, robust ecosystem to scale up the overall industrial capacity, deregulation and initiation of a second round of defence reforms. Read More

Manned Fighter and Unmanned Systems: Future is Collaborative

 The application of unmanned systems during recent conflicts has stimulated an alternative thought in military capability. While these systems have accrued reasonable tactical and operational successes, their ability to do so independently is a matter of debate. The operational imperatives indicate a necessity to invest in these capabilities, but in collaboration with the manned fighters. Unmanned systems exhibit some fundamental flaws when evaluated through the prism of ‘Nature’, and ‘Morals and Ethics’ of War. Since war fundamentally is a means of human conflict resolution, a human element would have to remain as the chief protagonist at all the levels of war. Similarly, in the Indian context that is characterised as No War No Peace (NWNP), complete military solutions to various security scenarios are possible only through the complementary application of manned and unmanned aircraft. At the operational level, when assessed through the seminal concepts of OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide and Act) loop as well as combat effectiveness, risk, and cost, the capabilities of unmanned systems can be maximised through their application in conjunction with manned fighters. Globally, to harness this potential, there is an impetus on 6th generation fighter aircraft, which are inherently MUM-T capable. These programmes foster human–machine teaming in which humans would be responsible for the higher cognitive functions [combat strategy design, command and control (C2), etc.], while less demanding cognitive functions (tactical manoeuvres, observation, etc.) would be left to UAVs/ UCAVs. At the current pace, in this field, India will remain at least one generation behind all major powers, including China. Therefore, to curtail this trend, and to boost indigenous ecosystem and make it export-worthy, in short-term (till 2030), for stabilisation of LCA and realisation of AMCA and CATS, primary focus should be on manned fighters with a proportional focus on unmanned systems as per their identified complementary roles (ISR, limited strike, high-risk, etc.). In the long-term (beyond 2030), the focus should shift to a collaborative approach to achieve the ‘Collaborative Peak’ of manned–unmanned teaming by 2047 (Amrit Kaal). Read More

Chinese Human Intelligence (HUMINT) Through Public Diplomacy in South Asia: A Critical Assessment

 China’s Human Intelligence (HUMINT) collection through public diplomacy has been instrumental in overcoming its ‘century of humiliation’ and emergence as a global economic and military power for pursuing her ‘Middle Kingdom Dream’ without raising major alarms. With deep pockets and surplus construction capabilities, China has placed its citizens and proxies at strategic chokepoints of the world by using innocuous-looking ‘thousand grains of sand, mosaic approach, human wave, or citizen spying’ methods for HUMINT collection. The trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative has further facilitated China’s economic growth and global expansion through HUMINT operations. As China shifts its focus to the South Asian region in the 21st century to support its growth engine, it inevitably affects India’s strategic interests. India, with comparable public diplomacy assets, must implement a comprehensive policy to enhance its HUMINT capabilities. Learning from China’s approach is crucial for India to counter China’s expanding influence and protect its strategic interests. Read More
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