Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
मनोहर पर्रिकर रक्षा अध्ययन एवं विश्लेषण संस्थान

Strategic Analysis

India in SCO: India’s Diplomatic Balancing in a Constrained Multilateral Order

 Given the continuing expansion of India’s multilateral experiments and engagements, now is an opportune time to ponder over how India reconciles its cosmopolitan moral principles with strategic pragmatism in multilateral forums often dominated by other great powers. To appreciate the above issue, this commentary focuses on India’s CT (counter-terrorism) diplomacy and strategy against the 25th Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit at Tianjin in China from August 31 to September 1, 2025. Read More

Shifting Dynamics: The Fraying Pakistan-Taliban Ties and the Contest for Strategic Influence

 In a recent escalation, Pakistan conducted air strikes inside Afghanistan against what it claimed were terrorist hideouts on October 9, 2025. The attack marked a remarkable escalation in the souring relationship between the two neighbouring countries. Following this there was a heated exchange of fire along the Durand Line with the Afghan-Taliban forces attacking border outposts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. The retaliation from Pakistan, on the intervening night of October 11–12, was predictably disproportionate as its army claimed to have neutralised over 200 Taliban fighters and destroyed about 21 hostile positions including Afghan border check posts. Read More

Indus Waters Treaty: Looking Back, Looking Ahead

 On September 19, 1960, in Karachi, the bustling port city and economic hub of Pakistan, two political leaders and a distinguished international banker convened to sign a document that would define the political and hydrological landscape of the Indian subcontinent. Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s Prime Minister; Field Marshal Ayub Khan, Pakistan’s military ruler; and William Illif, Vice President of the World Bank, affixed their signatures to what became the Indus Waters Treaty. The World Bank (International Bank for Reconstruction and Development) was no mere bystander; it was the architect behind the scenes, lending its institutional weight to broker a deal that neither nation could have achieved alone. Read More

Demanding an Inclusive Governance: Nepal’s 2025 Youth Uprising in Perspective

 The youth uprising in Nepal in September 2025 must be understood not as an isolated incident but as a striking manifestation of a global trend of increasing visibility and influence of Generation Z (Gen Z; born between 1997 and 2012) in political and social discourse. Keeping the cases of Sri Lanka (2022) and Bangladesh (2024) aside in the South Asian region, there have been such youth-led movements in Indonesia (‘Peringatan Darurat’ in 2024 and ‘Indonesia Gelap’ or Dark Indonesia in 2025) and Madagascar (2025). Similar movements have also emerged elsewhere, such as in Morocco, where young people used TikTok, Instagram, and Discord to demand better education and healthcare, as well as in the Philippines, where student-led campaigns have increasingly challenged corruption and called for greater political accountability. Read More

India’s Role as ‘Preferred Security Partner’ in the Indian Ocean Region: A Strategic Assessment of Maritime Leadership and Regional Cooperation

 Over the last few years India has been progressively attempting to establish itself as a ‘preferred security partner’ in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). This transformation represents a fundamental shift from India’s historically passive maritime posture described by strategic thinkers as a manifestation of its ‘sea blindness’ to a robust maritime-oriented outlook characterised by proactive regional leadership, enhanced naval capabilities, multilateral security arrangements and comprehensive engagement with littoral states. This essay examines the evolution, mechanisms and implications of India’s emergence as a preferred security partner in the IOR. Read More

The Nehru Years: An International History of Indian Non-Alignment

 Originating in the wake of cold war bipolarity, non-alignment became the dominant approach under Nehru, until the early 1960s to navigate India’s engagement with the international system. Faced with volatility of superpower contestation, the policy of non-alignment described as ‘leading ourselves’Footnote1 served as the basis for India’s diplomatic interventions in addressing cold war politics around decolonisation, regional conflicts, disarmament and nuclear arms control. The military rout in the 1962 Sino-Indian war which knocked India out of the ‘world of its own making’, marked a major rupture point in the Indian strategic outlook. A re-evaluation of India’s foreign policy objectives and strategies in the aftermath of the conflict led to reduced enthusiasm for non-alignment as New Delhi engineered an insular foreign policy approach, with more focus towards its immediate periphery and regional interests and recalibrating ties with major powers like the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK) and the Soviet Union (SU). Read More

China’s Air Power and Maritime Strategies Towards the Indian Ocean Region

 Joshy M. Paul’s China’s Air Power and Maritime Strategies Towards the Indian Ocean Region offers a detailed account of Beijing’s evolving air and naval posture towards the wider Indo-Pacific region, with a keen focus on the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). As a distinguished researcher with immense experience in airpower and maritime security of the Indo-Pacific, Paul uses a comprehensive set of data, starting from the onset of China’s shift towards air and maritime power, to unpack the dynamics of the strategies Beijing formulated to address the Indian Ocean Region. Read More

Decision Making in Defence

 The post-second World War period has seen rapid development of new strategic doctrines, consequent on major technological breakthroughs in weapons systems, transport and communication capabilities. These doctrines in turn have had a profound impact on the decision- making processes, command and control apparatus and civil-military relationships in different countries, which maintain sizeable military establishments. The new strategic doctrines emphasise deterrence through an arms race, both quantitative and qualitative, readiness to react with forces in being and strategic mobility, watching all other nations continuously and long-range as well as short-term planning. Though a number of doctrines have been categorised, they are all derived from one basic doctrine- deterrence through preparedness. Read More

Maldives, Populism and Politicisation of Foreign Policy: India in between India First and India Out?

 This article posits that Mohamed Muizzu coming to power, and the shifting tectonics of India First and India Out fits in the template of populism, and politicisation of foreign policy. Deploying the discursive method, the article focuses on Muizzu’s speeches (2023–2025), and argues that the India factor was deployed for the purpose of politicisation and domestic mobilisation. However, I underline that politicisation of foreign policy may not always lead to tangible shifts in foreign policy orientation. This highlights the limits of populist politicisation by Muizzu, especially in the wake of economic crisis, and strategic passivity by China. Read More

From Cold War Distance to Indo-Pacific Partnership: An Overview of the Past, Present, and Future of India-ASEAN Strategic Engagement

 The year 2022 marked the 30th anniversary of diplomatic ties between India and ASEAN and its progression into a comprehensive strategic partnership. Meanwhile, the unfolding geopolitical developments in the form of great power competition are fast eroding ASEAN’s centrality, thereby shrinking the diplomatic space that ASEAN needs to balance the two big powers (Zhiqun Citation2024). Amid increasing great power competition, ASEAN’s act of straddling between the US-led security guarantee and the economic benefits of engaging with China is becoming increasingly difficult (Thompson Citation2024). This shift in the geopolitical environment in Southeast Asia is also pressurising India to recalibrate its regional strategies. A historical analysis of Indo-ASEAN relations is necessary for situating the evolving dynamics between the two in the Indo-Pacific context, as past choices and constraints continue to shape Indo-ASEAN engagement. This Commentary analyses three major geopolitical factors involving India and ASEAN from India’s independence to the Indo-Pacific era. The factors are: the similarity in their geopolitical objectives, the degree of convergence in their geopolitical alignment with the United States (US) and China, and the relative power dynamics between India and ASEAN. Drawing on this analysis, the Commentary highlights the extent of strategic convergence between India and ASEAN during each period, showing how Indo-ASEAN relations have evolved from symbolic diplomacy to substantive strategic cooperation. Read More

Friends: India’s Closest Strategic Partners

 In an era marked by geopolitical flux, strategic rivalries, and an increasingly multipolar world order, the question of how India can safeguard its national interests while asserting itself as a global power has become more pressing than ever. In his book titled Friends: India’s Closest Strategic Partners, Sreeram Chaulia offers a compelling response: the key lies in cultivating and sustaining dependable international partnerships. Through detailed case studies of India’s bilateral relations with seven pivotal countries—Japan, Australia, the United States, Russia, France, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates—Chaulia examines how strategic friendships are shaping India’s foreign policy and global positioning. His analysis provides a timely reflection on the evolving nature of diplomacy and India’s quest for strategic autonomy amid shifting global dynamics. Each of these countries gets its own chapter in the book, where Chaulia explains how the friendship with India developed over time, what it looks like today, and what challenges lie ahead. Read More

Emerging from the Shadows: Essays on Disarmament by Indian Women

 After prolonged negotiations, 94 non-nuclear weapon States signed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) in 2017 without the participation of any nuclear weapons States. In February 2023, Russia suspended its participation in New START, the nuclear arms reduction treaty signed in 2010, citing the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The doomsday clock is ticking alarmingly, 89 seconds away from midnight mayhem. How does one make sense of a world where humanity has chosen to co-exist with nuclear weapons? Emerging from the Shadows: Essays on Disarmament by Indian Women is a series of essays discussing the art of nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament and its journey, fused with India’s engagement with the issue. The diverse topics it addresses range from the interlinkage of non-proliferation, disarmament and foreign policy, confidence building measures, verification processes, nuclear risk reduction, nuclear energy market and its trends, biosecurity and the Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) agenda. It is an analytically crafted account and a review of contemporary discourse around disarmament entwined with non-proliferation. The authors place great emphasis on the interconnected nature of the disarmament and non-proliferation approaches, where the latter draws credibility from, and lays groundwork for, the former. Read More

The Silk Road

 Historical background Traditionally, an improvised caravan route used by both the Chinese and European traders for transporting once famous Chinese silk to West Asia and Europe, the legendary ‘Silk Road’ between Chinese-occupied Sinkiang and Gilgit (Pakistan-occupied Kashmir) has become the focus of world attention with the re-opening on August 24, 1969, of Pakistan-China border trade on this route after 20 years (since 1949). The subject has assumed further importance recently as it came to light that the Chinese were building a new road connecting the Tibet-Sinkiang road with the Gilgit-Sinkiang road through Khunjerab Pass (16,000 ft). Read More

Colonial Legacies and Contested Territories: Unravelling UK-PoK Relations with a Focus on Mirpur

 This Article examines the UK’s historical and contemporary ties with PoK, focussing on ‘AJK’, and, in particular, the Mirpuri diaspora in the UK, through the lenses of colonial legacies, mass migration, and recent developments. Focusing on the 1967 Mangla Dam-induced migration as a pivotal moment, it analyses the socio-political influence of the Mirpuri diaspora in the UK and the geopolitical implications of recent events like British Envoy Jane Marriot’s 2024 Mirpur visit, which sparked India’s protest. By focusing on human-centric dimensions—migration patterns, identity tensions, diaspora activism—the Article highlights the complexities of UK-PoK relations and their ripple effects on India-UK-Pakistan ties. Colonialism, Kashmir, Migration, Diaspora, Identity, Radicalisation. Read More

Xi’s Call to ‘Tell the China Story Well’ – An Understanding of China’s Discourse Power

 To contest the discursive hegemony of the West, China has been striving to have a greater say in the way it is represented on the world stage. It is believed that China’s voice in international affairs is not commensurate with its increasing hard power. In this context, the article seeks to approach China’s quest for international discourse power from a three-fold framework: first, explore the concept of discourse power; second, assess the Chinese understanding of discourse power; and third, examine China’s efforts to enhance its discourse power with a special focus on the role of the Chinese State media. Read More

Competitiveness in India’s Defence Industry Ecosystem: An Analysis

 India has undertaken multi-pronged reforms to achieve self-reliance in defence sector. It has gained momentum based on the success of the indigenous weapon system during Operation SINDOOR. However, creating an ecosystem for defence industrialisation or indigenisation is an arduous and protracted journey. It calls for constant review of the system and dynamic formulation of strategies. This article attempts to assess the competitiveness of the defence industry ecosystem in India by using Porter’s Diamond Model. It emerges that India is moving in fast-track mode to promote indigenous development and manufacturing of defence products and achieve atmanirbharta or self-reliance. The analysis also discusses the ‘Way-Ahead’ to maintain momentum for indigenisation and ensure the competitive advantage of the Indian defence industry. Read More

The Geopolitical Trap: War in Ukraine and Strategic Takeaways

 Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and the Ukraine–Russia War began in Europe.Footnote1 The War has lasted for more than three years, resulting in around 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed, 370,000 injured (as of December 2024), and 6.8 million Ukrainians displaced across Europe (as of January 2025), including women, children, and the elderly (Binley and Beale Citation2024; Statista Citation2025). Russia has also suffered significant deaths and casualties in the War, as well as faced economic sanctions from Western powers. Read More

Chinese Air and Missile Power

 Air force Built up with Russian aid in the wake of the Korean War in the early fifties, the Chinese Air Force grew up around 1960 to be the third-largest in the world with about 3,000 fighter interceptors (mostly MiG-15s, MiG-17s and a few MiG-19s) and about a thousand light jet bombers (mostly JL-28s) and transport aircraft. There were about 10,000 pilots. Flying schools, training depots and instructional centres were developed under Russian guidance and there was a regular flow of supply and replacement of craft and spares. A division of parachute troops was also in the process of formation during 1959–60 with Russian help. China’s first Air Force Chief Liu Ya-lou spelt out the magnitude of Soviet assistance, when he said in July 1957 that, ‘the Soviet Union has not only given us first-class modern equipment, but also sent here a large number of very learned and experienced experts to teach us aviation science, tactics, superior aviation techniques and air force tactics, and all kinds of advance experience’. Read More

Prioritising Human Development: A Blueprint for the World from India’s Journey from Pre-MDG Successes to SDGs

 This article examines India’s comprehensive journey towards sustainable development, demonstrating the deep alignment between its national priorities and the global development agenda even before the advent of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The article highlights the nation’s significant achievements in critical areas such as poverty reduction, health, financial inclusion, and environmental sustainability. Acknowledging persistent challenges in achieving all targets, we identify key areas requiring focused intervention for future progress. Ultimately, India’s distinctive development model, characterized by its immense scale, profound diversity, and global engagement, serves as a valuable blueprint for sustainable development in the Global South and beyond. Read More

India’s Neighbourhood First Policy: Navigating Power, Trust, and Rivalry in South Asia

 India’s Neighbourhood First Policy (NFP) is a touchstone of its foreign policy, aimed at promoting peace, stability, connectivity, and cooperation in South Asia to enhance India’s regional and global influence. It is a defining subset of its overall foreign policy. While the groundwork for this policy was laid during the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, under then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, through enhanced regional engagement, it was given emphatic currency by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the shape of the NFP, and formally launched in 2014. The NFP reflects India’s strategic imperative to cultivate a cooperative periphery, counterbalance external influences (especially from China), and project India’s influence within Asia and beyond. This Essay traces the origins of India’s approach to the neighbourhood from the pre-independence colonial period, its evolution under Jawaharlal Nehru and subsequent Congress and non-Congress governments, critically analyses the functioning of the NFP under the Modi government, and suggests ways in which India can retain its influence in the neighbourhood. Read More
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