Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
मनोहर पर्रिकर रक्षा अध्ययन एवं विश्लेषण संस्थान

The US-China Competition in Southeast Asia from the Perspective of Offensive Realism

 In the aftermath of the Cold War, the international order has undergone profound transformation with China’s rapid rise posing a challenge to the US hegemony. The competition between these two great powers extends beyond the economic sphere into geopolitics, with Southeast Asia emerging as a focal point in their struggle for influence. From the perspective of offensive realism, John Mearsheimer argues that in the anarchic international system, great powers relentlessly seek to maximise their power to ensure security, making conflict inevitable. Employing the offensive realism approach, this study analyses the reasons why Southeast Asia has become entangled in US-China competition, examines the opportunities and challenges it faces, and assesses the responses of Southeast Asian countries in safeguarding their strategic interests. Read More

How Does Fear Motivate States to Go Nuclear? The Case of Pakistan

 This article examines how fear motivates the states to pursue nuclear weapons, contributing to the growing literature on emotions in International Relations and strategic studies. It reviews the concept of fear in IR theory and links it to established models of nuclear motivation. Using discourse analysis, the article investigates Pakistan’s nuclear programme, arguing that fear played a critical role in accelerating its pursuit of nuclear capability. The findings suggest that fear operates dynamically, varies over time and shapes the urgency and pace of nuclear development. Finally, the article proposes a framework for analysing fear as a driver of nuclear proliferation. Read More

Transformation of Islam in Central Asia: From Faith to Traditional Islam

 The article contends that the expanding regional and global terrorism, purportedly by the ‘Islamists’, led to the transformation of Islam in post-Soviet Central Asia, from ‘faith’ to ‘traditional’ Islam. This change was the nadir of a process that commenced with the origin of Islam in the region. The evolution, which was gradual till the pre-Soviet times, pronounced with the emergence of post-Soviet regimes, mainly due to security compulsions. The article further asserts that though this change seems innocent, it has serious implications for the region, per se, increased security threats to existing regimes, their ‘reimagined’ Islam, and the region’s pristine legacy of inter-cultural and intra-faith bonding. Read More

Maritime Security and Processes in India: A Need for Review/Revamping

 India’s maritime sector is central to the country’s security and economic well-being, given its vast coastline and strategic position. India’s approach to maritime security has evolved in response to new types of threats, learning key lessons from incidents such as the Kargil conflict and the 2008 Mumbai attacks. There have been major positives—through the Coastal Security Scheme and the creation of institutional mechanisms like the National Maritime Security Coordinator (NMSC). However, gaps in coordination and resources remain. There is, therefore, a need to address these. This would include making the maritime security apparatus more robust, including empowering the NMSC, greater involvement of coastal communities, and adopting smarter technology and data-driven practices to enhance coastal vigilance and response mechanisms. Read More

Legitimising Proactivity: Japan’s Use of the FOIP in Defence Export Policy

 Japan’s security policy has transitioned through three distinct phases: passive, active and now proactive. Initially, Japan adhered to a defensive stance, avoiding active engagement beyond its borders. In the active phase, Japan began taking limited regional and global responsibilities, though its actions remained reactive. This period hinted at a move towards ‘normalisation’, yet significant limitations persisted. In the current proactive phase, Japan has adopted a leadership role in regional and global security, with the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) policy playing an important legitimising role as a source of widely accepted norms. This paper uses Japan’s Defence Export Policy as a case study to highlight its security evolution and the role of the FOIP narrative in legitimising its proactive stance. Read More

Dual-Use Satellites and Strategic Ambiguity: Toward Robust Legal and Normative Frameworks

 The increasing inability to distinguish between civilian and military uses of satellite systems has created a governance gap that undermines crisis stability and confidence-building measures. Dual-use satellites blur the line between peaceful and military space activities, complicating arms control and international security. This paper analyses the technological, strategic, and legal implications of such systems that heighten strategic ambiguity and instability. It qualitatively evaluates governance frameworks, including the Outer Space Treaty and recent non-binding measures. Findings show that current mechanisms are inadequate, exacerbating mistrust and risks of miscalculation, underscoring the need for adaptive legal tools and sustained international dialogue. Read More

Saudi-Pakistan Defence Pact and India’s Evolving Engagement in West Asia

 The Saudi-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA), signed on September 17,2025, is a dramatic development amidst a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape in West and South Asia. Pakistan’s strategic elite has once again shown itself adept at geopolitical rent-seeking by leveraging the country’s nuclear status, religious identity, and geographical proximity to the Arab World to cultivate partnerships that can bail out its crisis-ridden economy. However, Pakistan’s primary objective is to counter India’s new assertive deterrence posture in ‘Operation Sindoor’, which established new rules of engagement, challenging Pakistan’s policy of using terrorist groups to secure its geopolitical goals under its nuclear umbrella. Saudi Arabia, for its part, seeks to shore up flailing deterrence against Iran and Israel. By asserting an outsized security role in the Gulf region, Pakistan is also holding out the promise of burden-sharing to the United States, increasingly viewed as an unreliable security guarantor despite its longstanding military preponderance in the region. Read More

India in SCO: India’s Diplomatic Balancing in a Constrained Multilateral Order

 Given the continuing expansion of India’s multilateral experiments and engagements, now is an opportune time to ponder over how India reconciles its cosmopolitan moral principles with strategic pragmatism in multilateral forums often dominated by other great powers. To appreciate the above issue, this commentary focuses on India’s CT (counter-terrorism) diplomacy and strategy against the 25th Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit at Tianjin in China from August 31 to September 1, 2025. Read More

Shifting Dynamics: The Fraying Pakistan-Taliban Ties and the Contest for Strategic Influence

 In a recent escalation, Pakistan conducted air strikes inside Afghanistan against what it claimed were terrorist hideouts on October 9, 2025. The attack marked a remarkable escalation in the souring relationship between the two neighbouring countries. Following this there was a heated exchange of fire along the Durand Line with the Afghan-Taliban forces attacking border outposts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. The retaliation from Pakistan, on the intervening night of October 11–12, was predictably disproportionate as its army claimed to have neutralised over 200 Taliban fighters and destroyed about 21 hostile positions including Afghan border check posts. Read More

Indus Waters Treaty: Looking Back, Looking Ahead

 On September 19, 1960, in Karachi, the bustling port city and economic hub of Pakistan, two political leaders and a distinguished international banker convened to sign a document that would define the political and hydrological landscape of the Indian subcontinent. Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s Prime Minister; Field Marshal Ayub Khan, Pakistan’s military ruler; and William Illif, Vice President of the World Bank, affixed their signatures to what became the Indus Waters Treaty. The World Bank (International Bank for Reconstruction and Development) was no mere bystander; it was the architect behind the scenes, lending its institutional weight to broker a deal that neither nation could have achieved alone. Read More
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