Strategic Analysis

US–India–China Relations in the Indian Ocean: A Chinese Perspective

The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is becoming increasingly significant in the world arena, with the United States, India and China—the most important stakeholders in the region—playing substantial roles. Judging from the three countries' strategic thought, concerns, interests and power balances, it is the US–India potential competition for maritime dominance in the IOR that demands the most attention. However, competition does not mean confrontation.

The US–India Nuclear Agreement: Revisiting the Debate

The 2005 US—India nuclear pact created ripples of controversy and debates within in a short period of time. In the US, the nuclear agreement was weighed vis-à-vis the non-proliferation regime—does it strengthen or weaken the regime? On the contrary, in India concerns were raised regarding the implications for India's strategic as well as civilian nuclear programmes. This article highlights the disjuncture in the concerns raised in the US and India.

The Diamer Bhasha Dam in Gilgit Baltistan: India’s Concerns

This article is an attempt to understand India's concerns over the Diamer Bhasha dam project within the overall ambit of India's approach towards Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). It makes a holistic assessment of the feasibility of the project, the political and technical issues involved in it, the long-term strategy of Pakistan and China in the region, and the local reactions, which must inform India's future policy preferences regarding PoK. The article is divided into three parts.

Evaluating the Political and Economic Role of the IRGC

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is Iran's most powerful security and military organisation, responsible for the protection and survival of the regime. Over time, the IRGC has attained a position of dominance vis-à-vis the regular army (Artesh). In due course, the Guards have also been transformed into a leading political and economic actor. The major political role of the IRGC started with the election of the reformist presidency. However, the Guards' involvement in the Iranian economy began during Rafsanjani's presidency.

India’s Afghan Policy: Beyond Bilateralism

The India–Afghanistan relationship is not a simple bilateral engagement. India's Afghan policy is driven by, and is dependent on, many extraneous factors such as India's troubled relationship with Pakistan, its search for a land transit to Central Asia through Iran and Afghanistan and its concerns regarding use of Afghan territory by Pakistan to the detriment of Indian interests. Given the geographical constraints, India has relied on Iran for land access to Afghanistan. This has been complicated by Iran–US relations —the two countries with whom India shares common interests.

Securing Central Asian Frontiers: Institutionalisation of Borders and Inter-state Relations

This article develops the message that the artificially introduced administrative borders during the Soviet era, which were subject to the processes of re-delimitation after 1991, whether for reasons of security, administration, mutual distrust or the population's ethnic attachment, have become results and means of political manipulation and pressurisation. This has resulted in further pushing regional states to follow mutually exclusive policies.

Re-examining India’s Counterterrorism Approach: Adopting a Long View

This article looks at the status quo of Indian counterterrorism policy—which largely favours ‘physical’ or ‘hard’ measures—and proposes that the government adopt a more holistic strategy. Termed ‘Countering Violent Extremism’, this would involve measures geared towards long-term prevention, with greater attention paid to the reasons for which people commit terrorism and to the impact of counterterrorism on communities.

Political Decision-Making and Nuclear Retaliation

Currently, India's nuclear doctrine is one of inflicting ‘unacceptable damage’ in case of nuclear first use against it or its forces anywhere. The problem with this is that at current levels of vertical proliferation it is liable to face a counter strike of equal proportions. This may not be in India's interests when viewed in relation to the inevitable setback to its trajectory of progress. Therefore, there is a case for terminating nuclear exchanges at the lowest possible level in case of nuclear first use of low opprobrium quotient or violence.

Making the Law of the Sea – A Study in the Development of International Law by James Harrison

The cornerstone of international law is ‘applicability of law based on consent’. Being bereft of any legislative machinery to legislate international law in the international sphere, the statute of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) adumbrates ‘treaty, customary international law and general principles of law, etc.’, as the sources of international law. Treaties (both bilateral and multilateral) formulation, however, is one such mechanism of codification of international law in which consent is given explicitly to a rule of international law.

Indian Naval Strategy in the Twenty First Century by James R. Holmes, Andrew Winner and Toshi Yoshihara

The 44th book in the Cass Series on Naval Policy and History, this book is an academic study of India's emerging maritime strategy from a Western perspective. Not surprisingly, therefore, it attempts to offer a systematic analysis of the shadow play between Western military thought and Indian maritime traditions.

Asian Maritime Power in the 21st Century: Strategic Transactions, China, India and Southeast Asia by Vijay Sakhuja

The rise of Asian maritime power is a sequel to Rising Powers in Asia. Maritime power in the age of globalisation has been a critical instrument for the emergence of the latent powers and capabilities of the once pre-eminent ‘civilisational states’ in the contemporary international order. It is important to note here that the rise and fall of maritime power determined the rise and fall of ancient civilisations.

Security in the Indian Ocean Region: Role of India by Rockin Th. Singh

Maritime strategy is playing an ever greater role in Indian strategic thinking. As India reaches for great power status, it is increasingly turning to the Indian Ocean to expand its strategic space. Although it currently operates in co-operation with the United States, India has long-term aspirations towards attaining naval predominance throughout much of the Indian Ocean. In conjunction with an expansion of India's naval capabilities, there has been a significant strengthening of India's maritime security relationships throughout the region.

Chinese Views of India in the Indian Ocean: A Geopolitical Perspective

In recent years, China's strategic community has emerged as an increasingly vocal and influential constituent of Chinese policy debates. This article focuses on Chinese analysts steeped in the realpolitik tradition. These intellectuals and strategists discern a troubling trend towards intense competition and zero-sum interactions in the Indian Ocean. In their view, a progressively assertive India will set the pace of the impending maritime rivalries among the great powers.

The Chinese Navy, Its Regional Power and Global Reach

The Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)’s recent accomplishments are impressive but have not gone beyond ‘pocket excellence’, as its overall structure and equipment are still out of date. However, the PLAN now has ships and powerful weapons that enable it to extend its combat range and engage its foes in a relatively large-scale maritime campaign beyond the Yellow Sea—its traditional battlefield. Depending on the nature of operations, it may already be able to carry out blue water missions around the first island chain in the West Pacific.

You Ji |
May 2012 |
Strategic Analysis

China’s Post-1978 Maritime Relations with South Asia: Towards Greater Cooperation

The objectives of this article are, firstly, to identify the place occupied by the Indian Ocean and South Asia in China's maritime strategy, and secondly, to identify the appropriate means of dealing with the global and regional maritime security concerns arising from China's maritime strategy as far as the Indian Ocean and South Asia are concerned.

The Creation of Indian Integrated Commands: Organisational Learning and the Andaman and Nicobar Command

India took an unprecedented step 10 years ago by setting up a joint theatre operational command for the Andaman and Nicobar Islands (ANC). This article seeks to examine the following questions: why did India decide to establish its first joint operational command? Why has the creation of this and other unified commands been so incremental in the Indian context? What are the arguments for and against jointness, integration and joint operational commands in the Indian context?

Maritime Developments in the South Western Indian Ocean and the Potential for India’s Engagement with the Region

The Indian Ocean region, being a vast geographical entity, is composed of various regional and sub-regional entities. This article addresses prominent maritime developments in the South Western Indian Ocean (SWIO) region of the Indian Ocean Rim and highlights the multi-dimensional growth of strategic maritime activities in the region.

India’s Maritime Core Interests

While the maritime doctrine was published by the Indian navy in 2004 and improved upon in 2007, the core interests identified were as seen through the prism of the navy. The national maritime interests of India are distinctly different from the ones identified by the Indian navy and need to be analysed to understand the nuances and the dimensions of such interests so as to promote India's maritime power potential.

Charting a Maritime Security Cooperation Mechanism in the Indian Ocean: Sharing Responsibilities among Littoral States and User States

The main objective of this article is to highlight the challenge of maritime security in the region geographically bounded by the Indian Ocean. It studies the current status of maritime security in the region from both the traditional and non-traditional points of view. From the traditional security perspective, it examines the strategic interests of the major Indian Ocean players—the China–India competition and India–US relations in particular—in addition to the existing maritime disputes among the littoral states.

A Neo-Nixon Doctrine for the Indian Ocean: Helping States Help Themselves

In recent years the Indian Ocean has received significant attention from the defence-intellectual community in the United States. However, the actual strategic importance of the region to US interests is less clear. In an environment of fiscal austerity, if commitments abroad are not firmly linked to interests, any significant involvement in a region of secondary concern could contribute to ‘imperial overstretch’.