Strategic Analysis

For the last 15 years, the war in Afghanistan has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and the United States has sent thousands of troops and spent billions of dollars supporting strategies that have been unable to curtail the violence in the country. In addition to deploying over 130,000 troops from 51 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries and its partner nations, the United States alone spent over $686 billion in the ‘Afghan war’.

• Aref Dostyar |
• January 2017 |
• Strategic Analysis

Over the last decade we have seen a race to build ports in the Indian Ocean as the two Asian powerhouses, China and India, compete to assert their regional influence. The newest addition to this power struggle is the Chabahar Port, located in Chabahar, a coastal town in the Sistan–Baluchistan region in south-eastern Iran, next to the Gulf of Oman, and at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz (Figure 1). Its strategic importance and economic value have drawn attention from many countries; however, India was the quickest to secure a deal to develop the port.

• Shawn Amirthan |
• January 2017 |
• Strategic Analysis

This article explores the possibility of conceiving South America and Southern Africa as subsystemic unipolarities under Brazilian and South African primacy, respectively. It argues that this concept, when applied to these regions, sheds light not only on the long-term strategies behind the Brazilian and South African foreign policies towards their neighbourhood, but also on the behaviour of secondary regional powers and small states. This hypothesis questions the maxim that considerations related to polarity affect great powers only.

• Luis Leandro Schenoni |
• January 2017 |
• Strategic Analysis

One of the campaign promises of President Muhammadu Buhari was that he would eliminate Boko Haram six months after assumption of office. By December 2015, the Buhari-led government gave itself a pass mark for countering the terrorists. The government declared that the group had been ‘technically defeated’. This declaration has led to debates in the public space as to the veracity of this claim. This article aims to critically appraise the on-going attempt to eliminate the Boko Haram threat under the Buhari administration.

• Hakeem Onapajo |
• January 2017 |
• Strategic Analysis

Southeast Asia’s international shipping lanes (ISL) are essential to the economic security of the Asia-Pacific region. Maintaining good order at sea serves to protect regional trade and can be achieved through collaboration between civil maritime security agencies (coast guards). Japan and China both have significant coast guard capabilities and diplomatic influence in the region that could be harnessed to promote civil maritime security cooperation with the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

• James D. Llewelyn |
• January 2017 |
• Strategic Analysis

The many links between drugs, small arms and insurgency have been widely discussed and addressed by scholars. The literature in particular has convincingly shown how several insurgent groups in Myanmar have used the drug business to finance and sustain their violent movements. Funds generated from drug production and circulation help the insurgent groups to procure arms, and are widely believed to be supporting the protracted nature of these movements.

• Anshuman Behera |
• January 2017 |
• Strategic Analysis

China’s aggressive rise and strained relations with its Asia-Pacific neighbours—a region with immense economic and strategic potential—have forced the US to forge a strategy of Asian rebalance. Besides making China suspicious, this strategy has aroused the possibility of a new cold war. In contrast, though India’s relations with China have improved considerably since the 1962 War, the unresolved border issue and the threatening Chinese attitude do not allow India to trust China.

• Annpurna Nautiyal |
• January 2017 |
• Strategic Analysis

This article has two parts. The first part aims at analysing why nations are increasingly going beyond their multilateral and regional moorings to secure and advance their national interests. In doing so, why and how do they indulge in sub-regional engagements? It has been empirically seen across the board in almost every part of the world that sub-regional growth initiatives play a significant role in regional integration.

• Vikash Kumar |
• January 2017 |
• Strategic Analysis

This article contributes to the rich body of literature on Russian security perceptions and analyses how Russian security thinking evolved over the last 20 years. The focus of the article is on how Russian security perspective shifted from the goal of assuring Russian security by integration and cooperation with the West to the idea of Russia’s own separate geo-economic project and the goal of reducing the country’s dependencies on the West. Security in this article is understood both as a military-political and as an economic phenomenon.

• Maxim Bratersky |
• November 2016 |
• Strategic Analysis

The article discusses two major trends in contemporary world politics—the disintegration of the nation-state and supranational integration—and analyses their nature, causes and significance.

• Ivan Krivushin |
• November 2016 |
• Strategic Analysis

While environmental issues attract growing interest all over the world Russia has kept aside from this trend for a long time. Its participation in international environmental cooperation has always been determined primarily by the external policy’s objectives. In Soviet times, participation in global environmental initiatives was a channel of collaboration with the West. In the 1990s, it was a means of integration into the international community and one of the major areas of cooperation with the US.

• Igor A. Makarov |
• November 2016 |
• Strategic Analysis

Although the US–Russia relations are hardly the central axis of contemporary international relations, the systemic confrontation between Moscow and Washington, which began in 2014, will become a decisive factor for the emerging international order. This confrontation was caused by factors much deeper than a mere clash of national interests in Ukraine or Syria.

• Dmitry Suslov |
• November 2016 |
• Strategic Analysis

The current crisis and pause in development of the EU–Russia relations provide a unique chance to shed the burden of past problems and start new relations from scratch. Both sides should sort out their values and get rid of the ballast generated by the bureaucratic inertia or false understandings of partnership. Russia and Europe are unlikely to evolve a common vision for the future. Their future is not in unity but in co-existing next to each other. It is time that Russia and the EU clearly formulate their real interests and try to make relations predictable.

• Timofei Bordachev |
• November 2016 |
• Strategic Analysis

The article discusses the changes in Russia’s policy towards Asia, arguing that Russia’s pivot to Asia is a reality, one that is motivated by both political and economic interests. And although that shift is not progressing as quickly as some might want and occasionally encounters difficulties, the process has definitely begun and is in all likelihood irreversible. Only a small, marginal segment of Russian society continues to dream of unity with Europe—which itself has entered a period of severe crisis.

• Alexander Lukin |
• November 2016 |
• Strategic Analysis

A lot of literature has appeared in recent years on how Russia and China have come to present a common challenge to the US-led world order. But the author of the book Power Politics: How China and Russia Reshape the World, Rob de Wijk, has propounded a different theory to prove a case rather in an ominous way that the old-style power politics has never gone away from the global scene even after the end of the Cold War.

• P. Stobdan |
• November 2016 |
• Strategic Analysis

Eurasia’s preponderance in global politics is gaining because of its location, resources, as well as mosaic population having diverse ethnic backgrounds. Since the invasion by the Mongolians in the 13th century, Eurasia as a geopolitical unity, attempted by Chengiz Khan, has been the foundation for Russia’s policies towards this region, which has been a hotbed of competition among the Persian, Turkic and Russian Tsarist empires, and the British Empire also competed for influence in the region.

• Nalin Kumar Mohapatra |
• November 2016 |
• Strategic Analysis

Key ideas associated with Eurasianism were developed in the 19th century. The narrative of classical Eurasianism in the 1920s was developed to explain that Western civilisation was not superior to other civilisations. Eurasia is the middle continent between other parts of Europe and Asia. There are historical, geographical, and cultural impetuses here which push nations to different forms of association. However, the dissolution of the USSR gave birth to new ideologies and political theories of Eurasianism.

• Mark Entin , Ekaterina Entina |
• November 2016 |
• Strategic Analysis

After the Ukrainian crisis and Russia’s actions in Crimea and Donbass, there is a growing lack of understanding about Russian interests in the post-Soviet space. Russian authorities have been accused of having a desire to expand its territory, trying to re-Sovietise the region, and using neo-imperial approaches of doing business with its neighbours. However, the genesis of Russian strategy towards post-Soviet space is much more complicated.

• Andrei Skriba |
• November 2016 |
• Strategic Analysis

On December 25 of this year we will mark 25 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Many in Russia and the West were optimistic about the seeming imminent integration of Russia into a Western-led liberal democratic global order. The United States, in particular, fresh off its ‘victory’ in the Cold War, could hardly restrain its triumphalism as it stood astride the world as the sole superpower.

• Andrew C. Kuchins |
• November 2016 |
• Strategic Analysis

Inhabited by numerous tribes and sub-tribes with fierce clan loyalties, the north-east of India has been plagued by identity-inspired insurgencies since independence. The first of these insurgencies was that of the Naga National Council (NNC) in the mid-1950s. Subsequent decades saw the outbreak of other, similar, insurgencies among the Meiteis, Mizos, Assamese and Boroks.

• Pushpita Das |
• September 2016 |
• Strategic Analysis