Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
मनोहर पर्रिकर रक्षा अध्ययन एवं विश्लेषण संस्थान

Africa Trends

Understanding Maritime Security

 The oceans, covering seventy percent of the Earth’s surface, are not just natural frontiers but important domains in the evolving global security agenda. According to the World Bank Group, “Maritime transport is the backbone of global trade, as more than eighty percent of goods are transported by sea”. The idea of maintaining “good order at sea” emerged through this and has gained momentum with globalization, as stable maritime trade became vital for peace and prosperity. The Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are heavily reliant on the oceans for their economic development. Problems such are terrorism and piracy, climate change, maritime border issues, and others have hindered the economic and sustenance activities in the oceans, in turn hampering the economies of SIDS and global maritime sector. Read More

The Security Implications of Africa’s Crypto Boom

 Africa's rapid adoption of cryptocurrencies and decentralised finance (DeFi) reflects both structural economic pressures and technological opportunity. Driven by currency volatility, inflation, financial exclusion, and a young, mobile-first population, crypto assets, particularly stablecoins have become embedded in everyday transactions, remittances, and value storage across the continent. However, this digital transformation has generated significant security risks. Drawing on recent law-enforcement operations such as INTERPOL-AFRIPOL's Operation Catalyst, this paper examines how cryptocurrencies and DeFi platforms are increasingly exploited by organised crime networks and terrorist groups for money laundering, fraud, extortion, and terror financing. The analysis highlights how pseudo-anonymity, weak regulatory frameworks, peer-to-peer exchanges, and crossborder ease of transfer enable a growing crime-terror nexus in Africa. While crypto technologies offer pathways for financial inclusion and economic resilience, their unregulated expansion threatens to undermine regional security and governance. The paper argues for calibrated regulation, institutional capacity-building, and financial literacy as essential to balancing innovation with security imperatives. Read More

Sudan Conflict and the UAE’s Strategic Engagement

 The civil war in Sudan, ongoing since April 2023, has evolved into a protracted power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), with severe humanitarian and regional consequences. This article examines the conflict through the lens of the United Arab Emirates' strategic engagement, highlighting how Sudan's geopolitical location, gold resources, agricultural potential, and Red Sea access have positioned it as a key node in Abu Dhabi's regional ambitions. It traces the historical evolution of UAE-RSF ties, particularly through Sudan's participation in the Yemen war and the consolidation of RSF control over gold mining and trade networks linked to Dubai. The analysis further explores allegations of Emirati arms transfers to the RSF, the role of transnational logistics corridors, and the paradox of the UAE's dual posture as both mediator and alleged enabler of violence. The article argues that external economic and military involvement has intensified Sudan's internal conflict, prolonging instability and exacerbating humanitarian suffering across the Horn of Africa. Read More

The Russia-Ethiopia Nuclear Partnership: A Catalyst for Regional Influence and Multi-polar Geopolitics

 The Russia-Ethiopia nuclear partnership marks a significant shift in Africa's energy and geopolitical landscape, positioning nuclear power as both a developmental tool and an instrument of strategic alignment. Formalised in September 2025 between Rosatom and Ethiopian Electric Power, the agreement reflects Ethiopia's pursuit of long-term energy security, industrialisation, and technological autonomy amid rising domestic demand, climate-induced vulnerabilities, and strained relations with Western partners. Embedded within Ethiopia's accession to BRICS and engagement with the New Development Bank, the nuclear deal underscores Addis Ababa's recalibration towards a multipolar order and diversified alliances. For Russia, nuclear diplomacy has emerged as a key mechanism to expand influence in Africa by offering concessional financing, technology transfer, and integrated infrastructure solutions. Regionally, Ethiopia's nuclear ambitions intersect with existing Nile Basin rivalries, particularly with Egypt, raising implications for energy geopolitics within BRICS and the Horn of Africa. The paper argues that nuclear cooperation functions as a strategic infrastructure of alignment, reshaping regional power dynamics and global governance pathways. Read More

The G20 in South Africa: Outcomes and Assessment

 The 2025 G20 Summit under South Africa's presidency marked a pivotal moment in contemporary multilateralism, highlighting Africa's growing role in global governance. Building on successive Global South presidencies, the summit foregrounded debt distress, climate vulnerability, and critical mineral governance within a fragmented geopolitical context. While the adoption of a leaders' declaration demonstrated diplomatic success, outcomes remained largely incremental, with limited structural reform in global financial and trade architectures. The summit exposed a key paradox, normative recognition of developing country concerns without substantive redistribution. Ultimately, it underscored both the persistence of multilateralism and the need for deeper institutional transformation to address systemic inequalities. Read More

Africa’s Quest for Modernity: Lessons from Japan and China

 The volume under review draws from noted scholar Ali Mazrui’s definition of modernisation, which integrates epistemic advancements with capability-based arguments. It looks to East and Southeast Asia as models for Africa’s development. As he states in his introduction, Africa ‘has to be able to conscript both China and Japan’ in service of its developmental goals (p. 5). He argues that ‘Africa can partner with China and learn from Japan’ while being cognisant of the diversity of developmental paths in East and Southeast Asia. Read More

The Cycles of Violence That Have Fuelled Burkina Faso’s Insecurity

 Burkina Faso, once among Africa’s most peaceful states, has become the world’s most terrorism-impacted country, driven by cyclical violence between jihadists, state forces, and self-defense militias. This paper examines how indiscriminate and ethnically targeted violence, particularly against the Fulani, has fuelled al-Qaeda’s Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) expansion. Under Captain Ibrahim Traoré, the Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP) have become central to counterterrorism efforts, yet their rapid expansion has coincided with escalating atrocities. The March 2025 “Solenzo massacre” triggered JNIM’s “revenge” campaign, showcasing the group’s capacity to attack and temporarily occupy urban centres. Traoré’s domestically focused but repressive strategy has deepened insecurity, enabling JNIM to advance its governance ambitions. By analysing the role of persecuted communities, militia centrality, and state violence, this study argues that Burkina Faso’s counterproductive tactics have entrenched insurgency and offer critical lessons for regional and international actors confronting extremism in the Sahel and Gulf of Guinea. Read More

From Peacekeeping to Partnership: India’s Evolving Role in South Sudan

 India’s engagement with South Sudan began before its independence with signing of Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that supported by India in 2005. India remained committed in extending the support to South Sudan through investments in the region’s hydrocarbon sector since 2003 giving economic support to the new nation. India’s support to South Sudan remained primarily in the areas of security, bilateral trade and capacity building. However, it is pertinent that the strategic cooperation between India and South Sudan should be derived by the objectives of the India’s foreign policy towards Africa and South Sudan’s development priorities considering the regional challenges like South Sudan’s civil war from 2013 to 2018 and ongoing tribal skirmishes till today. After the civil war ended South Sudan adopted Revised – National Development Strategy (R-NDS) 2021 - 2024 with focus on stabilizing economy and sustainable development. To ascertain the level of cooperation achieved between the two nations an analyses of cooperation achieved from 2005 till 2024 has been drawn. Also, India’s interest, South Sudan’s development priorities and regional challenges have been ascertained for identifying the emerging opportunities to secure India’s interest in the region and realigning the strategic cooperation framework. Read More

Russia’s Nuclear Energy Diplomacy in Africa

 The strategic withdrawal of the United States from key energy initiatives in Africa, including the winding down of Power Africa and reduced support for Just Energy Transition Partnerships, has created a significant vacuum in the continent’s energy diplomacy. This retreat coincides with Africa’s acute energy deficit, where over 600 million people lack electricity access, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa. Russia has capitalised on this gap through its state-owned Rosatom corporation, aggressively expanding nuclear energy partnerships across over 20 African countries. Beyond addressing energy shortages, Russia’s nuclear diplomacy serves as a geopolitical tool to deepen influence, foster long-term dependencies, and secure strategic alliances. While Russia offers comprehensive nuclear infrastructure solutions backed by flexible financing and political support, challenges remain, including financing constraints, institutional capacity gaps, and safety concerns. Despite symbolic agreements and ambitious projects, the long-term success of Russia’s nuclear ambitions in Africa depends on genuine local engagement, transparency, and alignment with the continent’s developmental priorities amid growing competition from China and Western actors. Read More

Forging Strategic Bonds: India’s Expanding Defence Footprint in North Africa

 India has increasingly become a key defence partner for North African nations like Egypt, Morocco, and Algeria, with significant potential for defence industry collaboration and arms exports. The North African region presents a strategic opportunity for India to expand its defence diplomacy and strengthen ties with the African continent. This article explores how India aligns with North African countries' defence modernisation goals and industrial cooperation efforts. Given North Africa's position as a gateway to Europe and Africa, fostering strong economic and defence ties could enhance India's regional influence through arms trade, industry partnerships, and capacity-building initiatives. Read More
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