IDSA Comments

The Economic Consequences of Military Rule in Myanmar

The recent public protests against the general price rise in Myanmar and the government crack down once again drew the world’s attention to the plight of the Myanmarese. But the focus has generally been on the political aspects, particularly the possibility of peaceful reconciliation and subsequent installation of a democratic government. In contrast, this paper attempts to peep into the economic aspects of military rule and its impact on the general public and concludes with certain possible implications for neighbouring countries like India.

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Conscription is not the answer

Shortage of officers, especially in junior ranks of the Indian Army, has been engaging the attention of policy planners, the public and the media. Armed forces reflect the society from which they are recruited and enrolled. With economic liberalisation and globalization, job opportunities for the educated youth have increased manifold. Traditional professions such as the civil service and the military do not seem to be very popular among the youth. Corporate India has now provided an environment for entrepreneurship.

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Beyond the Arab-Iranian Divide in the Gulf

In an interesting development, the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) invited Iran for the first time last month to attend its summit meeting held in Doha. The GCC was established in 1981 to foster multilateral co-operation in the Persian Gulf, but had adopted an exclusionary policy vis-à-vis Iran though the latter was an important actor in regional politics and economy. The invitation to Iran seems to point to a GCC initiative to overcome differences and act together for the larger good of the region.

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South Korea under Lee Myung-bak

The 17th South Korean Presidential elections were concluded on December 19, 2007. The last serving President Roh Moo-hyun could not contest these elections as he had completed two terms in office. Roh Moo-hyun belonged to the Centrist Reformists Democratic Party, formerly called Millennium Democratic Party (MDP), or Saecheonnyeon Minju-dang, but changed its name to the present form on May 6, 2005. The MDP lost popularity when Roh was impeached in March 2004 by the National Assembly for illegal electioneering and incompetence.

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Chinese Cyber War

In 2007 Chinese hackers gained notoriety in the US after a series of cyber intrusions, including one involving Pentagon systems. Though China denies involvement and the US is reluctant to make it public, the reason for suspecting China stems from the history of Chinese hacking since 2001, when a Chinese hacker community, Honker Union, declared cyber war on US government and business. Since then, there has been a series of Chinese hacking operations.

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Looking Beyond Nuclear Weapons

The year 2008 started with oil prices touching a historic high of US $100 a barrel. This is partly a reflection of the high demand for energy. Today, many countries are factoring ‘energy’ into their planning, be it hydrocarbons or other forms of energy. But in the case of India it appears that its energy future would be decided more by politics than actual energy needs. In the first week of 2008, an Indian delegation has completed the third round of negotiations with the International Atomic Energy Commission (IAEA) on India-specific nuclear safeguards.

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India’s Border in the Northeast: From Buffer to Bridge

There has been a qualitative shift in recent years in the way policy makers perceive borders and border areas. Borders are increasingly being seen as facilitators of easy circulation of goods and people rather physical obstructions. And border regions have transformed from underdeveloped buffer zones to bridges between neighbouring countries. This change in attitude is one factor that has contributed to India’s recent commitment to construct a port in Sittwe.

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Uttar Pradesh Emerging as a Terror Hub

Uttar Pradesh is emerging as a terror hub in the country. The January 1 attack on a Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) camp in Rampur by four militants belonging to the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) is the latest in a series of terror-related incidents to rack the state during the last year. Six serial blasts were earlier trigged on November 23, 2007 by militants belonging to the Harkat-ul-Jihad-i-Islami (HuJI), targeting the Varanasi court premises, the lawyers’ chambers in Faizabad, and a civil court in Lucknow. Two live bombs were also recovered and subsequently defused.

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Private Sector Participation in Indian Defence Industry

India opened up its defence industry to the private sector in May 2001, in a move to enhance the country’s ‘defence preparedness’. To give further impetus to this policy, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) came out with new policy measure related to the concepts of private Industry Leaders [or Raksha Udyog Ratnas (RURs)] “Make” procedure, and defence offsets, in its 2006 Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP). With these policy initiatives, the government’s focus seems to have shifted towards the private sector as far as achieving its long-cherished goal of ‘self-reliance’ is concerned.

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Benazir’s Death and Pakistan’s Democratic Future

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto on December 27, 2007 at an election rally in Rawalpindi raises serious doubts about Pakistan’s peaceful political transition to an era of democratic politics. Eight years of Musharraf’s rule has seen growing fundamentalism, political instability and ethnic disaffection. It was thought that reverting to a troika system would bring about the right balance between a democratically elected leader and the Army, which would help arrest disenchantment and address instability.

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America’s Pakistan Policy in Disarray

While the assassination of Benazir Bhutto has worsened the political turmoil in Pakistan, it has also left in disarray the US policy of attempting to nudge this crucial ally towards a democratic and stable future. The United States underwrote the deal between Pervez Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto in the hope that her return to power would lend legitimacy to the former’s increasingly unpopular rule. In Bhutto and her party, the US found moderation and cosmopolitanism – a counterforce to the growing religious extremism in the country.

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Whose Arctic is it anyway?

2007 will be remembered as the year of climate change and high oil prices. Starting with the first of the four reports of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the debate culminated in the award of the Nobel Peace Prize to Al Gore and the IPCC. Even the ill-fated Bali conference which failed to provide concrete direction to the future of international environmental policy reinforced the need for swift global action to curb carbon emissions.

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Rising Cost of the Global War on Terror

The Global War on Terror (GWOT), now into its sixth year, has become one of the most expensive wars in American history. GWOT covers three military operations: Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF), which broadly covers Afghanistan but ranges from the Philippines to Djibouti; Operation Noble Eagle (ONE), which is meant to provide better security for US military bases and enhanced homeland security; and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) which began with the build-up of troops for the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The cost of these operations has phenomenally increased over the years.

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Generally speaking…

General Asfaq Pervez Kayani’s elevation as the 14th Pakistan Army Chief of Staff in November has been treated in the Indian media as a relatively low key affair. The General has been projected as a Musharraf ‘loyalist’ positioned primarily to retain Musharraf’s influence and hold on the Army. But transitions, particularly in Pakistan’s military etablishment, have rarely followed any given pattern and it can be expected of Gen Kiyani to initiate some new policy direction.

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The Politics of Disaster Relief

Muslim countries and Islamic relief organisations along with the rest of the world have shown unprecedented solidarity with the people of Bangladesh after the devastating impact of cyclone Sidr in mid-November. Ironically, many of these Islamic charitable organizations have been involved in fuelling fundamentalism in Bangladesh. The extremist forces, and not surprisingly, are once again trying to capitalize on the miseries of the people and the inadequacies of the state machinery.

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US Estimate on Iran: Of New Intelligence and New-found Confidence

The latest US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear programme, “Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities” of November 2007 (released on 3 December 2007) notes with “high confidence” that Tehran halted its nuclear weapons programme in the fall of 2003 and with “moderate confidence” that Iran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007.

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Railway a Soft Target for Maoists

A little before dawn on December 12, 2007, Naxalites of the Communist Party of India (Maoist) blew up railway track at two different places in Bihar – the first one near Bhalui halt station on Jhajha-Kiul section of East Central Railway, disrupting train services on the Patna-Howrah main line and the other on the single line between Kajra and Urain stations on Kiul-Jamalpur section of Eastern Railway.

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LTTE has to change its strategy

The annual “Heroes’ Day” speech delivered by LTTE chief Velupillai Prabhakaran on November 27, amid continuing attacks by the government forces, brought out in no uncertain terms his dissatisfaction with the international community’s approach towards the Tamils of Sri Lanka. The LTTE supremo came down heavily on the international community for displaying, what he called, “partisan and unjust conduct”, which “severely undermined the confidence” of Tamil people on them.

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Assam and Aftermath: Reality Check

The street violence that gripped Assam’s main city Guwahati on November 24 will not easily fade from public memory. Trouble brewed when a peaceful protest rally organized by the All Assam Adivasi Students’ Association (AAASA),demanding scheduled tribe status for the adivasi community, turned violent leading to chaos and disorder. Some of the younger adivasi protestors went on a rampage between heavily populated areas of Beltola Chariali and Beltola Survey destroying vehicles and shops on the way.

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