IDSA Comments

For EU, Trade Will Trump Tibet

The streets of Lhasa have started to become quiet once again. It would be just a matter of weeks if not months before the Forbidden City once again invites tourists to the roof of the world to experience ‘Tibetan culture’, the preservation of which has been one of the central demands of the demonstrators. Tibet would soon show its ‘normalcy’ to the world, with the Olympic Torch passing through it.

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DHD (N) and UPDS Agree to Ceasefire

People living in the two hill districts of Assam – North Cachar Hills and Karbi Anglong –witnessed a dim ray of hope for peace on March 18, 2008, when the Dima Halam Daogah (Nunisa) faction [DHD (N)] and the United Peoples’ Democratic Solidarity (UPDS) signed a ceasefire. The ceasefire came about during a joint meeting at Diphu, capital of Karbi Anglong, which was facilitated by the district’s Deputy Commissioner Dr. M. Angamuthu. The two groups have pledged to co-operate with the district administrations of North Cachar hills and Karbi Anglong for establishing peace.

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India’s Defence Budget 2008-09

Union Budget 2008-09 has allocated Rs. 105,600 crores for India’s Defence. Crossing the one lakh barrier for the first time, and accounting for nearly 14.1 per cent of total central government expenditure, the Defence Budget looks quite impressive (see Box). But when seen in the context of India’s expanding interests, this allocation remains as moderate as ever. Moreover, an in-depth analysis reveals problems in defence and budgetary management, none of which show signs of abating.

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India Woos Africa

India is all set to woo Africa at the forthcoming India-Africa Summit on April 8, 2008 in New Delhi, reflecting the continent’s growing importance to Indian foreign policy in the 21st century. The Summit comes more than a year after China organised a similar event at Beijing in November 2006.

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The Sealed Fate of the Tibetan Unrest

Ongoing protests in Tibet, coinciding with the commemoration of the 49th anniversary of the 1959 March Uprising, was not unexpected given that China is only a few months away from the Beijing Olympics. The hosting of the Olympics is looked upon as China’s formal arrival as a great power and as an event that heralds its potential emergence as a superpower in the years to come. Consequently, the Chinese government has been well prepared to confront any untoward developments that could tarnish its image as a responsible global power.

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Protests in Tibet

Tibet has been an important and controversial issue for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) since it came to power in 1949. The CCP “liberated” Tibet in 1950 and began its official rule in 1951. There have been two previous uprisings in Tibet, in 1959 and 1989. The latest protests have brought to the forefront the fact that all is not well in Tibet as claimed by the CCP. The policy followed by the CCP has been to increase the number of Han Chinese in Tibet, and thus more fully amalgamate the region into the mainland. All top and important official positions in Tibet are held by Han Chinese.

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Pakistan Castigated for Deficiencies in Counter Terrorist Financing Regime

In a statement on February 28, 2008, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) voiced concern about the existing deficiencies in Pakistan’s counter terrorist financing and anti-money laundering system. While acknowledging some progress, the FATF noted that the shortcomings in Pakistan’s national legal framework constituted a money laundering/terrorist financing vulnerability in the international financial system.

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Trouble in the “Queen of Hills”

Peace in the picturesque town of Darjeeling and adjoining areas has been shattered for the last month by an agitation demanding a separate Gorkhaland and the removal of Subhash Ghisingh from the post of Chairman of the Darjeeling Gorkha Hill Council (DGHC). The agitation is part of a protest movement against the Indian government’s plan to grant Sixth Schedule status to the region. The movement is led by the Gorkha Janamukti Morcha (GJMMM), which gave a call for an indefinite bandh on February 13 in support of these demands.

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China’s Designs on Arunachal Pradesh

The recent Chinese Foreign Ministry statement expressing ‘unhappiness’ about Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh has generated a debate in India as to whether China is serious about resolving the disputed border. The statement has set back any possibility for an early and realistic settlement of the border dispute. A week after the verbal protest to the Indian mission in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao stated in an official briefing on February 14: “regarding Mr. Singh’s visit to that area, we have expressed our concern.

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Kosovo Declares Independence, East Asia Feels the Heat

The impact of Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia on February 17 is being felt on both sides of the Taiwan Straits. Apart from plunging the European Union (EU) into a crisis, Kosovo’s independence has escalated the ‘war of words’ between China and Taiwan even as the latter gears up for the March 22 presidential elections, which will also feature a referendum on the island considering membership of the United Nations under the name of 'Taiwan.'

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Naxalite Mayhem in Nayagarh

In a meticulously planned offensive, reminiscent of the February 2004 attack at Koraput in Orissa, around 360 highly trained armed cadres belonging to the outlawed Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) also known as Naxalites, including women cadres, carried out simultaneous attack on district armory, police training school armory, and the police stations of Nayagarh town, Nuagoan, Dasapalla and the Mahipur police outpost in Nayagarh district in Orissa. Nearly 15 police personnel including a civilian were killed and 5 others injured in the attack.

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Satellite Interception: US BMD Survives the Acid Test

Rarely would a defence R&D agency get an actual operational scenario to test the capability of a military system before attaining total technological maturity. The much-maligned U.S. Missile Defence Agency (MDA) silenced its long-time critics by utilising such an opportunity through a successful interception of a dysfunctional military reconnaissance satellite which threatened to hit the Earth with hazardous fuel.

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Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS): Where from…Whither-Bound?

The 2-day Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) in New Delhi (February 14-15, 2008) may well turn out to be a historic event for the countries of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). As an arrangement for multilateral naval and maritime security cooperation among regional countries, IONS not only offered a forum for exchange of views but also showcased its importance and reach.

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HuJI after the Death of its India Chief

The India Chief of Harkat-ul-Jihadi Islami (HuJI), Bashir Ahmed Mir also called as Sabha, was killed in an encounter with the security forces in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) on January 24, 2008. HuJI was allegedly involved in a number of deadly operations in Uttar Pradesh (UP), Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan in the recent past. Bashir Ahmed Mir is believed to be the mastermind behind some of these attacks.

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Pakistan in Doldrums

Pakistan today presents the picture of a nation at war with itself. It is not very often that one sees the armed forces of a state pounding its own citizens with helicopter gunships and heavy artillery. The inferno that had been ablaze in South Waziristan and North Waziristan for some time has now engulfed all the seven agencies of the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) and the flames from FATA have set almost the entire North West Frontier Province (NWFP) on fire.

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The Attempt to Sideline Muivah

The ongoing attempt to unify Naga insurgent groups is unlikely to end the two-decade old factional rivalry and killings in Nagaland. This is because the unification idea is largely seen as a deliberate attempt to sideline Thuingaleng Muivah and his Tangkhul tribe’s hegemony over the Naga insurgency movement. The end result of this effort is likely to be an escalation in fratricidal killings.

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Pakistan Headed for an Uncertain Future

As the time for the election draws near, the tribal frontier is getting hotter with each passing day. Suddenly rumour mills are active that the new Army Chief is bypassing Musharraf in his interactions with the Americans and is going to allow them some foothold in Pakistan. Americans are now claiming that the Afghan resistance is on the wane and the “level of violent activity in the eastern provinces is down about 40 per cent.”

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Sarkozy’s Visit to India

President Nicolas Sarkozy’s first visit to India on January 25-27, 2008 (along with 300 delegates) provided fresh impetus to the strategic partnership between the two countries. The visit reinforced the interests of both countries in maintaining close and friendly ties and in strengthening a multipolar world order. During his visit, Sarkozy had one-to-one talks with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, followed by discussions between the two sides on various sectors. The two countries signed several major agreements related to defence, nuclear research, space and healthcare.

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