Nawaz Sharif having expressed his intentions of improving relations with India will try to give trade a big push. Yet, one should not expect policy changes related to terrorism targeted at India or its aversion to India’s presence in Afghanistan.
The new government to be led by Nawaz Sharif will have to tread a very difficult path to manage, if not solve, the monumental problems that confront the Pakistani state and society.
The External Affairs Minister has returned back from his visit to China. Despite this seemingly happy ending to the sordid border incident, inconvenient questions about China’s intentions and assertiveness persist.
What we are seeing in Pakistan is the ushering in of an anti-democratic Islamic order through the ballot box. What is more, the Pakistan Army has decided to also indirectly ensure that Islam is never “taken out of Pakistan”.
Rockets in the Maoist arsenal may seem, presently, to have nuisance value. However, the possibility of the Maoists acquiring greater capability to fire the rockets with accuracy cannot be ruled out. Many strategic and static locations would come under threat with disastrous consequences.
With an expected fractured poll results, Pakistan is further heading towards uncertainty. The question is not so much as to who forms the next government but more importantly on how it functions. Chances are that the May 11 elections could well end up making Pakistan further ungovernable.
Most developed economies are already feeling threatened by increasing equity investments sponsored by foreign government-owned and/ or foreign government-controlled entities in the defence and high-tech industries. A coordinated government response for supervision of foreign investments will emerge on the horizon sooner than later.
Incursions and incidents of escalation are not new to India-China relations. Importantly they have been successfully diffused by a combination of adroit diplomacy, ‘show of force’ and political statesmanship.
