IDSA Comments

Global Financial Crisis: Is there a Way Out?

President Bush will host the first ever financial summit of the G-20 on November 15, 2008 in Washington to discuss the current global financial crisis which threatens the economic and political stability through out the world. The crisis comes on the heels of an economic crisis in the global economy in the first half of 2008 which was characterised by a record level of oil prices, global food shortages, high inflation and rising inflation in most countries.

Read More

Violence in Pakistan: Trend Analysis September 2008

Although September coincides with the holy month of Ramzan in the Islamic calendar, the violence in Pakistan during the month surpassed that in August, which itself was the most violent month. Despite the fasting and sanctity accorded to Ramzan in Islam, it is also associated with Shahadat (martyrdom) and people laying down their life during this holy month are often considered Shaheeds (martyrs). This probably explains to some extent the extremely enhanced level of violence in Pakistan during September 2008 and why various Ramzan ceasefires negotiated in August and September floundered.

Read More

Can India ever Trust China?

The two recent glorious achievements - the Olympics and spacewalk mission – seem to have transcended China to a new global height with wide implications for the world’s strategic balance. From all accounts, analysts suggest that China will not only survive but has also gained from the recent global financial meltdown.

Read More

The oil price Conundrum

As the saying goes, everything that goes up had to come down. The same holds true for the price of oil, which has seen a slide of around 55% in just three months. At one point of time there were even predictions that prices would reach $200 a barrel. However, currently, the price of oil has dropped to $68 a barrel, from a high of over $147 in July this year. But the question is how and more importantly, why did this happen, and in such a short time.

Read More

Piracy off Somalia: Can Naval Patrolling be the ‘Antidote’?

Since 2005, the ‘centre of gravity’ of Asian piracy has clearly shifted westwards from Southeast Asia to the western Indian Ocean. The Somalia-based pirates are on the rampage, capturing vessels of all sizes ranging from yachts to super-tankers and their crew for ransom. This is hardly surprising, considering that the writ of Somalia’s Transitional Government (TFG) does not even run on the entire Somali land territory, and much less on its adjoining seas.

Read More

Resolving the Bodo Militancy

Bodo militancy can be effectively resolved by accommodating the only surviving Bodo militant outfit within the existing self-governing territorial council that came into existence in 2003. In the mid-1980s, the Bodos of Assam under its influential student body, the All Bodo Students’ Union (ABSU), which began a vigorous mass movement demanding a separate Bodoland state on the North of the Brahmaputra. The movement lasted for about a decade and resulted in the establishment of a territorially defined self governing council known as Bodoland Autonomous Council (BAC) in 1993.

Read More

HUJI as a Political Party: Where is Political Reform in Bangladesh Headed?

The caretaker government in Bangladesh had assumed power with the objective of bringing about a new political culture in the country. This aim had made them decide upon a crackdown against corruption and the introduction of a slew of political reforms. One such reform was the need for all parties to abide by the constitution the non-registration of religion based parties.

Read More

The Significance of Shenzhou-VII

On October 7, 2008, the PLA Daily reported that the Central Military Commission (CMC) and the four general departments of the Chinese military celebrated in great style the success of the Shenzhou-VII manned space flight mission. Shenzhou-VII, carrying three astronauts (Zhai Zhigang, Liu Boming, and Jing Haipeng) returned successfully on September 28 after conducting a historic spacewalk mission. This success made China the third country after the United States and Russia to conduct a space walk mission.

Read More

Is India on the Path to Vibrant Defence Industry?

What does it take to be ‘a vibrant industry’ or more specifically ‘vibrant defence industry’? Broadly, it would demand that the industry should be innovative in terms of processes and products, its base and structure should have large dimensions horizontally, vertically, and technologically to be responsive enough to keep pace with the changing strategic expectations of the nation. Defence exports and imports should be a matter of deliberate political or commercial policy choices and not a result of security compulsions.

Read More

Prachanda’s Visit to India: Beginning of a New Dawn

No other recent visit to India has been so eagerly awaited as that of Pushpa Kumar Dahal, alias Prachanda, the Maoist revolutionary turned democrat and Prime Minister of ‘New Nepal’. His party received a thumping mandate from the electorate in the last elections and but for the fact that 50 per cent of the seats were to be filled up by proportional representation, it could have easily crossed the half way mark in the constituent assembly. Thus, under the existing electoral procedure, the Maoists were forced to bank on other political parties to form a government.

Read More

Violence in Pakistan: Trend Analysis for August 2008

The recent suicide attack on Mariott Hotel in Islamabad has once again focussed international attention on Pakistan. Violence in Pakistan is now moving from the periphery to the heartland. The level of violence has been rising continuously for the last few months. Drawing upon media reports, an attempt is made here to analyse violence in Pakistan during August 2008.

Read More

Averting Terror Attacks

On September 13, five serial bombs shattered the weekend peace across several popular market complexes in New Delhi, killing 30 innocent civilians and injuring nearly 90. An elusive outfit calling itself “Indian Mujahideen” (IM) claimed responsibility for the bombings via an email sent to national media houses 10 minutes after the first blast at Karol Bagh.

Read More

An Overview of the Russo-Georgian Conflict

Georgia was a constituent republic of the former USSR. In 1991, the dissolution of the Soviet Union led to the independence of Georgia. In turn, the autonomous regions of Georgia, namely South Ossetia and Abkhazia, attempted to break away from Georgia, resulting in civil strife in the early Nineties. These conflicts were settled with Russian involvement with the United Nations Mission in Georgia deploying in a peacekeeping role in Abkhazia and a Russian peacekeeping force deploying under a Joint Control Commission in South Ossetia.

Read More

Taiwan’s Failure at the UN

Will Taiwan ever participate in the United Nations? Pessimist views have started flowing after the rejection of Taiwan’s fresh bid for ‘meaningful participation in international agencies’ at the UN on September 18, 2008. This proposal was submitted by sixteen “diplomatic allies” of Taiwan to the UN Secretariat on August 14, 2008. Blocking Taiwan’s new attempt, a UN subcommittee decided that it would not let the 63rd UN General Assembly (UNGA) consider their request for permission to join ‘UN activities’.

Read More

Iraq beyond the Troop Surge: Fragile Security Gains, Tenuous Political Stability

The military commander most associated with executing President George Bush’s ‘troop surge’ in Iraq, Gen. David H. Petraeus, handed over command of US forces to Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno on September 16, after completing nearly 18 months of duty at the helm. He had taken over from the then commander Gen. George Casey in early February 2007, at a time when rising American and Iraqi civilian casualties threatened to engulf the whole region with its attendant negative consequences.

Read More

Revisiting the Kosi Agreement: Lessons for Indo-Nepal Water Diplomacy

The year 2008 has witnessed yet another disastrous flood in North Bihar. Floods in Bihar have been almost an annual phenomenon. Though the capacity of the river flow was well below the danger line this time around, the situation was in fact aggravated by a breach in the Eastern embankment. Estimates indicate that around thirty lakh people have been displaced and their livelihoods devastated in sixteen districts of north-eastern Bihar. At the same time, around 50,000 people have been affected in Sunsari district of Nepal.

Read More

Explaining China’s India Policy

Let the fact speak for itself. China was not happy about India gaining the waiver in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and it played the role of a spoiler till such time it could. The Indian Government now feels betrayed. Perhaps India expected China’s reciprocity in exchange for its gracious support for the successful tour of the Olympic Torch. Indeed, it was naiveté that led India to believe Chinese rhetoric.

Read More

NATO Expansion Hits Russian Roadblock in Georgia

The Russian military blitzkrieg to counter the Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili’s dispatch of his Israeli and US trained and equipped forces to retake the breakaway region of South Ossetia on August 7, 2008 took many by surprise. Moscow brazenly took the war straight into the Georgian heartland routing the Georgian forces in South Ossetia and expelling them from the other main Georgian separatist region of Abkhazia.

Read More

US To Begin Troop Withdrawal from Iraq

After prolonged political and diplomatic negotiations between Iraq and the United States, President George Bush announced on September 9 the decision to withdraw around 8000 troops by the end of February 2009. The withdrawal would be done in a phased manner - a Marine battalion by November 2008 and an Army brigade by February 2009.

Read More