IDSA Comments

With elections looming large in both countries and the Indo-US nuclear deal facing its moment of truth, the inevitable question will arise as to who has gained how much from the Strategic Partnership that was signed with great fanfare in July 2005. This is not withstanding the fact that the failure of the nuclear deal would undoubtedly be a setback for both countries and besmirch the reputations of those leaders who had put their personal prestige on the line. It would also reflect poorly on the political parties and the governments involved in various ways.

• Cherian Samuel |
• June 16, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

The release of Sheikh Hasina on ‘parole’ for two months has generated hope for the stalled political dialogue and uncertainty over the scheduled Parliamentary elections in December 2008. The Awami League (AL) had earlier demanded the unconditional release of Hasina. But it appears that after hectic negotiations between some of the advisors of the Caretaker Government (CTG) and Hasina, a political understanding was worked out that ultimately saw her being freed. It has given hope to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) about the release of their leader as well from jail.

• Smruti S. Pattanaik |
• June 16, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

In a disturbing sign, the Chinese seem to have brought up Sikkim and not Arunachal Pradesh back to the table during the recent visit of Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee to China. The belief was that China had implicitly recognised Indian sovereignty over Sikkim in 2003, and as such there was no dispute on the matter with China. China’s recognition of Sikkim was interpreted as a quid pro quo for India’s recognition of total Chinese sovereignty over Tibet in 2003.

• P. Stobdan |
• June 13, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

As the new political dispensation in Pakistan negotiates new deals with militants in the country’s Pakhtoon belt, it is causing consternation among its neighbours. The deals have been signed in Swat Valley, Mardan, Mohmand and Bajour Agency, and in all probability with Baitullah Mehsud the leader of ‘Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan’ in Waziristan. However, the Pakistan government would like to retain deniability vis-à-vis the last of these deals, so as not to ruffle too many feathers in the United States or Afghanistan.

• Alok Bansal |
• June 13, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

Integration of Maoists combatants into the Nepal Army (NA) has become a contentious issue. Despite the Constituent Assembly (CA) elections and the declaration of Nepal as a Republic, a new government has not been formed. The Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal (UML) have been demanding adjustments and rehabilitation of the combatants through a proper modality before the CPN-Maoist forms the new government. The Maoists, on other hand, demand ‘collective’ entry of UNMIN-verified armed cadres into the NA.

• Nihar R. Nayak |
• June 13, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

At a time when the India-China border dispute is hogging the limelight and causing unease in the Indian establishment, many festering inter-state border disputes in the Northeast that are sowing seeds of discord seem to elude the attention of policymakers at the Centre. The issue of inter-state border disputes came to the fore recently, when tensions erupted along the Assam-Meghalaya border following the Assam government’s attempt to lay a foundation stone for a primary health sub-centre at Langpih, a border village claimed by both Assam and Meghalaya.

• Pushpita Das |
• June 12, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

Sri Lanka’s Eastern province is transitioning to a new era. First came Karuna’s exit and subsequent co-operation with the government in Colombo. This was followed by the expulsion of the Tigers soon thereafter. And the latest is the successful completion of Eastern Provincial Council (EPC) elections on May 10, 2008 and the coming into existence of a democratically elected government under Sivanesathurai Chandrakanthan alias Pillayan after two decades of civil conflict.

• M. Mayilvaganan |
• June 12, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

In the ongoing mass arrests in Bangladesh, nearly 20,000 people have been put behind bars. These arrests started on May 28, 2008 after the ban on political activity was lifted. It was expected that after allowing political activity, the government will facilitate the electoral process leading to the holding of elections which were postponed in January 2007. But the mass arrests in the name of deteriorating law and order condition have made the political situation fluid.

• Anand Kumar |
• June 11, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

On June 2, terrorists exploded a car-bomb outside the Embassy of Denmark in the high-security diplomatic area of Islamabad. The explosion instantaneously killed eight people, injured more than twenty five and damaged properties in the vicinity. People killed in the attack were mainly Pakistanis, including the local staff at the embassy and a Danish citizen of Pakistani origin. It is not clear how an explosive-laden car was able to enter such a highly-guarded area without detection.

• Alok Rashmi Mukhopadhyay |
• June 09, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

Recent announcements of major arms acquisition programmes by the Indian government must have given a sense of elation to the armed forces, which have been waiting for long for some of this equipment. These announcements also give greater confidence to the nation about the military’s capability to tackle national security challenges. But there are other long term implications of arms procurement largely through import.

• N. Neihsial |
• June 03, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

On the afternoon of May 27, the people of Jamshedpur were caught unaware. They were exposed to a dense, pale green, pungent and poisonous gas, Chlorine. This gas had leaked from an unused cylinder lying in the Tata Motor’s water treatment plant for the past 10 years. By the next day, around 150 to 200 people had been hospitalised. The affected people also included company employees and their family members. So far no deaths have been reported.

• Monalisa Joshi |
• May 31, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

The practice of converting defence plans into publicly known defence budget is essentially a practice of democratic governments. One reason for public disclosure of defence spending could be that tax payers expect to know directly or through their representative how much is being spent on national defence and on other sectors of economy which affects their security and welfare. Disclosing the defence budget even to the domestic audience was rarely done in the past. In fact, even today, some major powers do not disclose their defence spending to the world.

• N. Neihsial |
• May 30, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

At least nine co-ordinated blasts rocked Jaipur on May 13, 2008, killing more than 70 people and injuring 200. Subsequently, a little known Islamic militant group, Indian Mujahideen (henceforth IM), claimed responsibility for the attacks through an e-mail that contained threatening assertions. The authenticity of the mail has been confirmed by the Indian Intelligence Bureau. Since then, the security establishment in India has been trying to decipher the details of this organisation.

• T. Khurshchev Singh |
• May 30, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

The review of the composite bilateral dialogue process by the Foreign Ministers of India and Pakistan on May 22 at Islamabad was significant in many ways. This was the first ever review, that too during the course of the first ever high level visit by an Indian minister after the new government took power in Pakistan. Both countries have accepted a gradual process of resolving the outstanding issues between them. Pakistan has said that it is important to raise awareness among the people about their stake in the peace process.

• Smruti S. Pattanaik |
• May 30, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

The new ANP-led provincial government in NWFP signed a peace deal with the Islamic militants of Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) led by Maulana Fazlullah, on May 21, 2008. The deal is the most significant initiative taken by the provincial government to end endemic violence that has engulfed the scenic Swat valley since last year and follows another peace deal with Maulana Sufi Mohammad, the father in law of Fazlullah and the founder of TNSM on April 20. Sufi Mohammad had founded TNSM after leaving Jamaat-e-Islami in 1992.

• Alok Bansal |
• May 28, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

Ever since the new democratically elected government assumed office in Pakistan, analysts have drawn up exhaustive priority lists of tasks before it. These range from restoring civilian pre-eminence over the military, countering terrorism, building democratic institutions, freedom of the media, and restoration of the judiciary. The new government, however, will do well to also order a review of the use of covert action as an instrument of state policy, which has been a major factor for the ills that afflict Pakistan and undermines its credibility in the international community.

• Satinder K. Saini |
• May 28, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

The Indian reaction to the terrorist attacks in Jaipur has so far been quite predictable. As usual the media has congratulated the citizens of Jaipur for ‘resilience’ and maintaining communal amity, while at the same time lambasting the security set-up in the state as well as in the centre including each and every security, intelligence and investigative agency and their working procedures, lack of coordination, absence of a central agency, etc. First of all, it has to be underscored that Jaipur was very important in the terror target book.

• Alok Rashmi Mukhopadhyay |
• May 28, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

Sino-Japanese relations were in the doldrums for the past decade because of the repeated visits to the Yasukuni Shrine by former Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. One consequence was a complete freeze in mutual visits at the highest political levels between 2001 and 2006. Even exchanges at other levels were affected. The ice was broken in 2006 when Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe visited China, and the ice began to thaw when Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited Japan in 2007.

• Gunjan Singh |
• May 28, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

At the NATO Summit in Bucharest, Ukraine and Georgia’s loss became Russia’s overall gain. Ukraine and Georgia wanted to get the invitation for the pre-membership programme in NATO, which is the last step to full membership. Before the summit, President Bush went to Kiev and promised Ukrainian leaders that he would do all to support their country’s membership in NATO. But strong opposition from France and Germany put paid to Ukrainian and Georgian hopes.

• Nivedita Das Kundu |
• May 28, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments

The hill district of Assam, North Cachar Hills (N.C. Hills), has been recently in the news all too often but for the wrong reasons. Known for its pristine mountainous landscape and myriad ethnicities, culture and breathtaking bio-diversity, this hill district is now sadly dominating news bytes as a place plagued by a ‘vicious cycle of ethnically slanted indiscriminate violence’.

• Namrata Goswami |
• May 26, 2008 |
• IDSA Comments