India and GCC Countries Amid COVID-19 Pandemic
Driven by the Covid-19 pandemic, the economic challenges for India emanating from the Gulf region are highly imminent and discernible.
- Prasanta Kumar Pradhan
- May 13, 2020
The West Asia Centre seeks to cover issues, themes and countries of the region which are undergoing rapid political transformation impacting the political and security situation of the region and beyond. Popular protests demanding political and economic reforms and the subsequent fall of some long ruling authoritarian rulers and the rise of Islamists to power have significantly changed the region’s political landscape. GCC-Iran rivalry, Shia-Sunni sectarian conflict, external intervention in the region, and the rise of religious radicalism have further aggravated the situation. The Centre is closely following the unfolding internal political developments in individual countries as well as the regional political scenario.
The historical shifts in the region and domestic political developments will have a significant impact on India’s external environment. With huge stakes in the region such as energy, trade and safety of Indian citizens in the region, it has become important for India to carefully watch developments taking place in its ‘extended neighbourhood.’ These and other related issues are being focused upon by the scholars at the Centre. The Centre continues to hold regular bilateral dialogues with some leading think tanks in West Asia thus facilitating exchange of ideas and perspectives.
Current projects being pursued in the Centre are:
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Driven by the Covid-19 pandemic, the economic challenges for India emanating from the Gulf region are highly imminent and discernible.
The abidance to ceasefire does not mean an end to the conflict, but it surely would work as a confidence-building measure, at least for now, to address the bigger challenge of
coronavirus.
The COVID-19 crisis would severely impact the four countries at the social, political, economic and humanitarian levels, as these states were already facing multi-vector exigencies at the time of the pandemic’s outbreak.
While it is unlikely that the Iranian regime will be able to weather the COVID-19 crisis without the support of the international community, its efforts at seeking international support largely remain a work in progress.
As the COVID-19 cases continue to rise, the key priorities for the GCC countries are to contain the spread of the pandemic, maintain the flow of trade across their borders and preserve their economies from adverse impacts.
The political divisions and economic challenges facing the country have complicated the government’s response to the pandemic, putting the population at risk and threatening to undermine the popularity of President Erdogan.
Syria’s fragile health care system on account of the continuing conflict hinders the country’s effort to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic.
The situation in Persian Gulf has been on the boil with several tit-for-tat actions raising the chances of a direct confrontation. However, Iran will be cautious in choosing an all-out war given its vulnerabilities against the US military might.
The September 14 strikes targeting Saudi oil refineries demonstrated an exceptional level of mission accomplishment that is possible with drones today. In the coming times, drones are likely to get an increasing share in augmenting the decisive role of air power.
Turkish President Erdo?an has made the issue of establishing a ‘safe zone’ inside Syria a domestic political issue, linked to national security. However, given the complexities of the Syrian crisis, the differences between the United States and Turkey over the expanse of the planned safe zone, and lack of Russian and Iranian support for the plan, the chances of establishing the safe zone appears bleak.



