Asian Strategic Review 2013

About the Book

It would not be a cliche to describe the strategic contours of Asia as being at the crossroads of history. A number of significant events are influencing the likely course that the collective destiny of the region could possibly take in the future. Some of the key issues and trends have been analysed in this year’s Asian Strategic Review. The assessment of the authors collectively highlights certain overarching trends, which are likely to shape the future of Asia and the world. Some of these trends have been evident in the past, however, with time, their impact on the security of the region has become more pronounced. These include the emergence of China, upheaval in West Asia, instability in the AfPak region and the continuing threat of nuclear proliferation. This issue of Asian Strategic Review focuses on security and military modernization in the backdrop of these trends, with specific reference to military modernization, defence budgets, arms procurement in different Asian countries, the US pivot strategy and its implications for the Asian security environment.

About the Editors

Professor S.D. Muni, presently Visiting Research Professor with the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore, was India’s Special Envoy to Southeast Asian countries on UN Security Council Reforms (2005-06) and served as India’s Ambassador to Lao PDR (1997-1999). In 2005, the Sri Lankan President bestowed on him ‘Sri Lanka Ratna’, the highest Sri Lankan civilian honour for a non-national. He taught and supervised research at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India for 33 years since 1974. In the University he held the prestigious Appadorai Chair of International Relations and Area Studies. He has been a member of India’s University Grants Commission’s Standing Committee on Area Studies, and an expert on the faculty selection boards of various Universities in India. He was the founder Editor of Indian Foreign Affairs Journal (2005-2008), (Cambridge University Press, India) and South Asia Journal (1990-94) (Sage India). He was also a honorary Fellow of the Monash Asia Institute, Melbourne and is the Honorary Distinguished Fellow of IDSA, New Delhi. He served Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi, as Director of Research- International Affairs (2006-2007).

A founder Executive Member of the Regional Centre of Strategic Studies, Colombo, Prof. Muni was nominated to India’s first National Security Advisory Board in 1990-91. He has been an Executive member of the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. Prof. Muni has had visiting assignments for teaching/research in the academic institutions/universities of US, UK, Sweden, Norway, Germany, Australia, Japan and Singapore. He addressed the UN Ad hoc Committee on Indian Ocean as a Zone of Peace at Socci (then USSR) in 1985.

Author and editor of nearly two dozen books, Professor Muni has published more than 150 research papers and articles in various academic journals of repute. His recent publications include China’s Strategic Engagement with the New ASEAN (Singapore, 2002); Maoist Insurgency in Nepal (New Delhi, 2003); India’s Energy Security (New Delhi 2005) Responding to Terrorism in South Asia (New Delhi 2005); IDSA Strategic Review 2007; 2008 (New Delhi, 2007, 2008); India and China: The Next Decade (New Delhi, 2009.); India’s Foreign Policy: The Democracy Factor, (Cambridge, New Delhi, 2009), The Emerging Dimension of SAARC (Cambridge, New Delhi, 2010) and A Resurgent China: South Asian Perspectives (Edited in collaboration, 2011, Routledge, New Delhi).

Colonel Vivek Chadha (Retd) is a Research Fellow at IDSA. He served in the army for over 22 years before joining IDSA in 2011. His current areas of research are defence studies, counter insurgency and terrorism finance. His published books include: Low Intensity Conflicts in India: An Analysis, Company Commander in Low Intensity Conflict and Indo-US Relations: Divergence to Convergence. He has also edited a book titled Armed Forces Special Powers Act: The Debate.

Contents

Foreword
List of Contributors

1. Introduction
— S.D. Muni

SOUTH ASIA

2. Defence Spending in India and its Neighbourhood
— Laxman Kumar Behera

3. Afghanistan Beyond 2014: The China Factor
— Vishal Chandra and Ashok K. Behuria

CHINA

4. Domestic Developments in China: Issues of Stability
— Rukmani Gupta

5. China’s Military Modernisation and India’s Security
— Mandip Singh

6. Recent Developments in India-China Relations
— Rup Narayan Das

7. Emerging Powers: China and India in BRICS
— Jagannath P. Panda

SOUTHEAST AND EAST ASIA

8. Developments in the South China Sea
— Sarabjeet Singh Parmar

9. Japan’s Defence and Security Policies
— Shamshad A. Khan

10. India-Thailand Relations in East Asian Security Dynamics
— Rahul Mishra

WEST ASIA

11. Arab Spring: Redefining Regional Security in West Asia
— Prasanta Kumar Pradhan

12. Iran and the Emerging Gulf Security
— M. Mahtab Alam Rizvi

UNITED STATES

13. US Rebalancing Strategy Towards Asia-Pacific: Understanding Reasons and Implications
— Sanjeev K. Shrivastav

14. Indo-US Defence Relationship
— Vivek Chadha

RUSSIA

15. Russia’s Military Modernisation
— Rajorshi Roy

NUCLEAR ISSUES

16. Nuclear Modernisation in India’s Neighbourhood
— Rajiv Nayan

17. Options on the Table: Iranian Nuclear Imbroglio and US Military Moves
— S. Samuel C. Rajiv

18. North Korean Nuclear Surge and East Asian Security
— Pranamita Baruah

19. A Method in Madness: North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons
— Nupur Brahma

20. Conclusion
— Vivek Chadha

APPENDICES

Appendix 1: Asia’s Inter-State Hotspots
Appendix 2: China’s Strategic Spread in Asia
Appendix 3: Nuclear Weapon States in Asia
Appendix 4: Defence Spending of Major Asian Countries (2008-11)
Appendix 5: Selected Arms Procurements and Deliveries: Asia

Index

List of Contributors

Ashok K. Behuria is a Research Fellow and Coordinator of the South Asia Centre at IDSA, New Delhi.

Jagannath P. Panda is a Research Fellow at IDSA, New Delhi. His research areas are: China & Multilateralism, Sino-Indian relations and BRICS.

Laxman Kumar Behera is a Research Fellow at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. He specializes on issues of military spending, defence industry and arms procurement.

M. Mahtab Alam Rizvi is an Associate Fellow at IDSA. He focuses on politicaldevelopments and energy security issues in Iran and the Gulf Region. His current Project is on Iran-China Relations.

Mandeep Singh is an army officer and a Senior Fellow at IDSA. He specialises on issues pertaining to China in general and PLA and Tibet in particular.

Nupur Brahma is a researcher with IDSA. She mainly works on nuclear proliferation and disarmament with a special focus on North Korea’s nuclear weapons development.

Pranamita Baruah is a researcher at the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses (IDSA). Her area of focus is Japan and the Korean Peninsula.

Prasanta Kumar Pradhan is an Associate Fellow at IDSA. His areas of interest include conflict and human rights, politics and foreign policy of Saudi Arabia.

R.N. Das is a Senior Fellow at the IDSA. His areas of research include China-Hong Kong relations, India-China relations, Chinese foreign policy.

Rajiv Nayan is a Senior Research Associate at the IDSA. He specializes on nuclear issues and arms control at the Institute.

Rahul Mishra is a researcher at Southeast Asia and Oceania Centre, IDSA. He specialises on issues related to Asia-Pacific security, Southeast Asia and Southwest Pacific region.

Rajorshi Roy is a researcher with the Eurasia-West Asia Centre at the IDSA. He is focusing on Russia’s military modernisation programme and Russia’s Arctic strategy.

Rukmani Gupta is an Associate Fellow at IDSA. Her research focuses on China, specifically issues of power, hegemony and social stability.

S. Samuel C. Rajiv is an Associate Fellow, Nuclear and Arms Control Centre, IDSA. His research interests include the Iran nuclear issue, India-Israel relations, among others.

Sarabjeet Singh Parmar is a naval officer presently working as a Research Fellow in IDSA. He looks at maritime security issues.

Sanjeev Kumar Shrivastav is a researcher at the IDSA. He specialises in India-U.S. strategic partnership, foreign policy as well as domestic politics in the United States.

Shamshad A. Khan is a researcher at the IDSA’s East Asia Centre and focuses on various aspects of Japanese security and defence policies.

Vishal Chandra is an Associate Fellow specialising on Afghan Affairs at IDSA.

Vivek Chadha is a Research Fellow at IDSA. His areas of interest include defence studies, counter insurgency, counter terrorist finance and Indo-US relations.

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