Myanmar

The many links between drugs, small arms and insurgency have been widely discussed and addressed by scholars. The literature in particular has convincingly shown how several insurgent groups in Myanmar have used the drug business to finance and sustain their violent movements. Funds generated from drug production and circulation help the insurgent groups to procure arms, and are widely believed to be supporting the protracted nature of these movements.

The message President Kyaw took back from New Delhi is that India stands ready to support Myanmar in every possible way on its march to security, reconciliation and prosperity.

This backgrounder offers an overview of the two most challenging concerns for Myanmar’s democracy – ethnic unrest and economic hardships – and how the new government is planning to address these issues in particular and also more generally the influence of the Tatmadaw in politics.

China wants to regain the position it once enjoyed under the military government in Myanmar. However, its efforts at securing a direct access to the Indian Ocean through Myanmar are unlikely to see an early fruition.

Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won by a landslide majority in the openly contested elections Myanmar held on Sunday, November 8, 2015.The NLD won a convincing majority with 255 seats in the lower house, 135 in the upper house and 496 seats in the state and regional legislatures. This paves the way for election of President of its choice and forming a government. The election had 33.5 million eligible voters (over 18 years) of Myanmar’s 52 million population.

It may be an over-optimistic assessment to expect the present Thein Sein regime to achieve a substantive and comprehensive political accord in the run-up to the elections.

Myanmar and India have followed separate political paths only to find it converging in recent times. Myanmar’s other neighbour China has had a much larger footprint in the country. India has to calibrate its engagement with Myanmar to not just effectively implement its Look East policy but also manage the contiguous border regions of Northeast India given the ground realities.

Burma’s two decades-old alignment with China, which was always an uneasy one, is being reordered to better reflect Burmese national interests. In an attempt to reach out to the West, partial democratisation has been permitted. The military remains highly influential in Burmese politics, but its desire to avoid the pitfalls of over-dependence on Beijing, together with confidence that separatist movements pose a lesser threat than in the past, have led to a loosening of political control.

With increased cross-border mobility, instantaneous access to information and easy reach to small arms, terror attacks in India are finding new targets.