Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
मनोहर पर्रिकर रक्षा अध्ययन एवं विश्लेषण संस्थान

Publication

India’s Act East Policy and Engagement with Southeast Asia and Oceania, 2014-2025

Over the past decade, India's Act East Policy has shifted from occasional interaction to a steady, institutionalized presence across Southeast Asia and Oceania. This monograph argues that by prioritizing normative alignment, maritime security, and collaborative partnerships over coercive power, India has solidified its standing as a credible regional stakeholder. Future success depends on deepening functional cooperation and improving project execution to translate this established influence into long-term strategic relevance and regional stability.

Understanding Maritime Security

The oceans, covering seventy percent of the Earth’s surface, are not just natural frontiers but important domains in the evolving global security agenda. According to the World Bank Group, “Maritime transport is the backbone of global trade, as more than eighty percent of goods are transported by sea”. The idea of maintaining “good order at sea” emerged through this and has gained momentum with globalization, as stable maritime trade became vital for peace and prosperity. The Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are heavily reliant on the oceans for their economic development. Problems such are terrorism and piracy, climate change, maritime border issues, and others have hindered the economic and sustenance activities in the oceans, in turn hampering the economies of SIDS and global maritime sector.

The Security Implications of Africa’s Crypto Boom

Africa's rapid adoption of cryptocurrencies and decentralised finance (DeFi) reflects both structural economic pressures and technological opportunity. Driven by currency volatility, inflation, financial exclusion, and a young, mobile-first population, crypto assets, particularly stablecoins have become embedded in everyday transactions, remittances, and value storage across the continent. However, this digital transformation has generated significant security risks. Drawing on recent law-enforcement operations such as INTERPOL-AFRIPOL's Operation Catalyst, this paper examines how cryptocurrencies and DeFi platforms are increasingly exploited by organised crime networks and terrorist groups for money laundering, fraud, extortion, and terror financing. The analysis highlights how pseudo-anonymity, weak regulatory frameworks, peer-to-peer exchanges, and crossborder ease of transfer enable a growing crime-terror nexus in Africa. While crypto technologies offer pathways for financial inclusion and economic resilience, their unregulated expansion threatens to undermine regional security and governance. The paper argues for calibrated regulation, institutional capacity-building, and financial literacy as essential to balancing innovation with security imperatives.

Sudan Conflict and the UAE’s Strategic Engagement

The civil war in Sudan, ongoing since April 2023, has evolved into a protracted power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), with severe humanitarian and regional consequences. This article examines the conflict through the lens of the United Arab Emirates' strategic engagement, highlighting how Sudan's geopolitical location, gold resources, agricultural potential, and Red Sea access have positioned it as a key node in Abu Dhabi's regional ambitions. It traces the historical evolution of UAE-RSF ties, particularly through Sudan's participation in the Yemen war and the consolidation of RSF control over gold mining and trade networks linked to Dubai. The analysis further explores allegations of Emirati arms transfers to the RSF, the role of transnational logistics corridors, and the paradox of the UAE's dual posture as both mediator and alleged enabler of violence. The article argues that external economic and military involvement has intensified Sudan's internal conflict, prolonging instability and exacerbating humanitarian suffering across the Horn of Africa.

The Russia-Ethiopia Nuclear Partnership: A Catalyst for Regional Influence and Multi-polar Geopolitics

The Russia-Ethiopia nuclear partnership marks a significant shift in Africa's energy and geopolitical landscape, positioning nuclear power as both a developmental tool and an instrument of strategic alignment. Formalised in September 2025 between Rosatom and Ethiopian Electric Power, the agreement reflects Ethiopia's pursuit of long-term energy security, industrialisation, and technological autonomy amid rising domestic demand, climate-induced vulnerabilities, and strained relations with Western partners. Embedded within Ethiopia's accession to BRICS and engagement with the New Development Bank, the nuclear deal underscores Addis Ababa's recalibration towards a multipolar order and diversified alliances. For Russia, nuclear diplomacy has emerged as a key mechanism to expand influence in Africa by offering concessional financing, technology transfer, and integrated infrastructure solutions. Regionally, Ethiopia's nuclear ambitions intersect with existing Nile Basin rivalries, particularly with Egypt, raising implications for energy geopolitics within BRICS and the Horn of Africa. The paper argues that nuclear cooperation functions as a strategic infrastructure of alignment, reshaping regional power dynamics and global governance pathways.

The G20 in South Africa: Outcomes and Assessment

The 2025 G20 Summit under South Africa's presidency marked a pivotal moment in contemporary multilateralism, highlighting Africa's growing role in global governance. Building on successive Global South presidencies, the summit foregrounded debt distress, climate vulnerability, and critical mineral governance within a fragmented geopolitical context. While the adoption of a leaders' declaration demonstrated diplomatic success, outcomes remained largely incremental, with limited structural reform in global financial and trade architectures. The summit exposed a key paradox, normative recognition of developing country concerns without substantive redistribution. Ultimately, it underscored both the persistence of multilateralism and the need for deeper institutional transformation to address systemic inequalities.

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