IDSA Comments

The latest US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear programme, “Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities” of November 2007 (released on 3 December 2007) notes with “high confidence” that Tehran halted its nuclear weapons programme in the fall of 2003 and with “moderate confidence” that Iran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007.

• S. Samuel C. Rajiv |
• December 20, 2007 |
• IDSA Comments

A little before dawn on December 12, 2007, Naxalites of the Communist Party of India (Maoist) blew up railway track at two different places in Bihar – the first one near Bhalui halt station on Jhajha-Kiul section of East Central Railway, disrupting train services on the Patna-Howrah main line and the other on the single line between Kajra and Urain stations on Kiul-Jamalpur section of Eastern Railway.

• P. V. Ramana |
• December 20, 2007 |
• IDSA Comments

The annual “Heroes’ Day” speech delivered by LTTE chief Velupillai Prabhakaran on November 27, amid continuing attacks by the government forces, brought out in no uncertain terms his dissatisfaction with the international community’s approach towards the Tamils of Sri Lanka. The LTTE supremo came down heavily on the international community for displaying, what he called, “partisan and unjust conduct”, which “severely undermined the confidence” of Tamil people on them.

• M. Mayilvaganan , Ashok K. Behuria |
• December 13, 2007 |
• IDSA Comments

The street violence that gripped Assam’s main city Guwahati on November 24 will not easily fade from public memory. Trouble brewed when a peaceful protest rally organized by the All Assam Adivasi Students’ Association (AAASA),demanding scheduled tribe status for the adivasi community, turned violent leading to chaos and disorder. Some of the younger adivasi protestors went on a rampage between heavily populated areas of Beltola Chariali and Beltola Survey destroying vehicles and shops on the way.

• Namrata Goswami |
• December 10, 2007 |
• IDSA Comments

The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has strongly denied news reports that the launch of an Israeli spy satellite aboard the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) has been delayed or even cancelled because of US pressure. The news reports, while speculative in nature, have certain inconsistencies that need to be contested. Foremost among these being there is a quid pro quo element by way of sharing of data; since the satellite is wholly Israeli owned and operated, ISRO is only providing a commercial service with no quid pro quo involved.

• Cherian Samuel |
• December 07, 2007 |
• IDSA Comments

In the recently concluded ASEAN Summit (November 18-22), apart from issues like Myanmar, ASEAN Charter and ASEAN Economic Community, nuclear energy was also discussed at length. A declaration on safeguarding the environment and the use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes was agreed by the ASEAN members. This was, in spite of the fact that many non-governmental organisations as well as domestic pressure groups in some of the ASEAN countries have consistently raised apprehension about the safety of nuclear power plants which lie in the seismically active zones.

• Pankaj K Jha |
• December 06, 2007 |
• IDSA Comments

Malaysia’s so-called multi-ethnic harmony was deeply shaken when the Hindu Rights Action Force (Hindraf) organised in Kuala Lumpur the largest ever mass protest against the ‘marginalisation’ of ethnic Indians as a consequence of the government’s ‘discriminatory’ policy. The incident has clearly exposed Malaysia’s political class of creating and favouring a unified trans-racial community called Bangsa Malaysia (‘Malaysian race’).

• Udai Bhanu Singh |
• December 05, 2007 |
• IDSA Comments

For the last one year regular installments of reports and analyses have appeared in the media on the challenges countries would face as a result of climate change and its mitigation and adaptation has been on the top of the agenda. The most recent one is the release of the Human Development Report 2007/2008, Fighting climate change: Human solidarity in a divided world or HDR.

• P. K. Gautam |
• December 05, 2007 |
• IDSA Comments

The Maoists continue to advance their violent campaign to capture political power through armed revolution. In the current year, till October 31, 571 lives have been lost in Maoist violence. Another 12, including two civilians and 10 personnel of the Mizo Battalion, were killed in an ambush on November 29 near Konta in Chhattisgarh. Correspondingly, the state response has been inadequate in containing the Maoists’ campaign and their influence. Strikingly various authorities continue to hold a widely divergent perception of the spatial spread of the Maoist movement.

• P. V. Ramana |
• December 05, 2007 |
• IDSA Comments

A China Daily news item on November 22, 2007 states that both China and India will hold their first joint-army exercise in Yunan province of Southwest China in December. The piece titled “China-India Plan Joint Military Exercise” highlights the pledge of both the Chinese and Indian Prime Minister’s intent to push the Sino-Indian strategic partnership to a “new level”. Given the political value and media attention, the nature of this forthcoming exercise is seen as a “need” to fortify a sense of confidence between the Indian Army and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

• Jagannath P. Panda |
• November 30, 2007 |
• IDSA Comments

President Pervez Musharraf’s claim that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are safe as long as he is in charge has raised widespread speculation about the safety of Islamabad’s nuclear arsenal. Musharraf’s statement comes at a time when Pakistan is going through one of its worst period of domestic instability.

• Reshmi Kazi |
• November 29, 2007 |
• IDSA Comments

The United States imposed unilateral sanctions against Iran on October 25, 2007 to complement its efforts towards getting a third set of sanctions through the UNSC.

• M. Mahtab Alam Rizvi |
• November 29, 2007 |
• IDSA Comments

After dilly-dallying for a long period Bangladesh finally signed the Trans-Asian Railway (TAR) network agreement on November 9, 2007 at the UN headquarters in New York. With this 20 of the 28 countries under the network have joined the agreement. India signed the agreement on June 29, 2007. The remaining eight countries have yet to sign citing "procedural" and "technical" reasons, rather than disagreement about the project. Bangladesh failed to sign the agreement earlier as the previous BNP-Jamaat alliance government was undecided on the issue.

• Anand Kumar |
• November 28, 2007 |
• IDSA Comments

The imposition of emergency in Pakistan on November 3, 2007 highlights two significant points: the crisis of political legitimacy for Musharraf and the raging war in the tribal areas which has affected the morale of the Pakistan army. Musharraf highlighted the reason for emergency to save Pakistan from greater crises. He did not hesitate to name the judiciary as one of the problems that triggered the present action.

• Smruti S. Pattanaik |
• November 27, 2007 |
• IDSA Comments

A month after the 17th Party Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) was convened in mid-October, 2007, the Information Office of the State Council published a White Paper titled China’s Political Party System on 15 November. Comprising seven chapters and one appendix, the publication of the White Paper is perhaps reflective of the deliberations within the higher echelons of the Chinese leadership on initiating political reform.

• Raviprasad Narayanan |
• November 23, 2007 |
• IDSA Comments

The Sino-German bilateral relationship has run into rough weather in the last few weeks. What has been described as a relationship based on ‘strategic partnership’ experienced a big chill when the German Chancellor Angela Merkel met the Dalai Lama in Berlin on September 23. Chancellor Merkel seemed to provide at least two messages – one to her domestic constituency and the other to China.

• Alok Rashmi Mukhopadhyay |
• November 23, 2007 |
• IDSA Comments

As the time for North Korea’s “disablement” of its nuclear facilities draws closer, the six- party nations, especially the United States and South Korea, have stepped up their efforts to ensure the process reaches its desired outcome. The sixth-round of the six-party talks successfully reached a ‘Second-Phased Action’ on October 3, 2007 outlining a road map for the disablement of North Korea’s nuclear programme including the 5-megawatt electric reactor, the fuel fabrication plant and the radiochemical laboratory in Yongbyon by the end of the year.

• Hayoun Ryou |
• November 22, 2007 |
• IDSA Comments

Iran began clandestinely developing a uranium enrichment programme in the early 1980s and claims that it is for peaceful purposes and solely for civilian use. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has claimed that firstly, Iran has no need for nuclear weapons and secondly, that nuclear weapons are forbidden by Islam.

• Ryan Clarke |
• November 16, 2007 |
• IDSA Comments

The struggle for control over the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) took a new turn after the reformist faction appointed former finance minister Saifur Rahman as the acting chairman. This decision was taken by the highest policy making standing committee in a five hour meeting on October 29. The committee also made former water resource minister and dissident leader Hafizuddin Ahmed the new Secretary General. However, the meeting allowed Khaleda Zia to remain as the party's chairperson.

• Anand Kumar |
• November 06, 2007 |
• IDSA Comments

Tension has subsided across the Taiwan Strait in recent years. China has adopted a “wait and see” approach and has chosen to focus more on economic growth, scientific development, and securing energy supplies, while Taiwan has been content with the status quo up until recently. Further, trade links between Taiwan and the Mainland are expanding rapidly and there have even been discussions about increasing air traffic in order to promote stronger business ties.

• Ryan Clarke |
• November 06, 2007 |
• IDSA Comments