The elimination of OBL might not accelerate US withdrawal from Afghanistan, but in all probability this marks the beginning of the end of active US military presence in Afghanistan.
The death of Osama bin laden, is not the end of al Qaeda. It may disable it, but will not kill ‘al Qaeda the idea or movement’. We need to remember that bin Laden and al Qaeda articulated a political grievance which will not disappear with his elimination. The 'war of ideas' is still on.
India should seek a regional solution to the Afghan conflict, involving a regional force under a UN flag to provide a stable environment for governance and development till the Afghan National Army can take over.
India must stay engaged, keep a low profile, earn the goodwill of the Afghan people through its multifaceted assistance programme, and stay away from any costly misadventure in the security sector.
Indonesia, which has been taking significant measures to curb terrorism, scored another success with the arrest of Abu Bakar Ba'asyir aka ABB, suspected of having funded and ideologically motivated Al Qaeda Aceh, in early August 2010. The arrest is just one of the steps in a long, consistent and protracted fight to maintain Indonesia’s secular, democratic and republican credentials.
Spilling of gas from a chemical factory can happen either because of accidental release or sabotage. In this era of terrorism such threats need to be reviewed on a much broader canvas.
If Pakistan succumbs to American pressure, it will continue to be engaged in a long war of attrition on its western borders. If Pakistan resists American pressure, it will be isolated in the world and the international community will have to fall back upon India to put a firewall around the AfPak region.
India is justified in seeing the US move to go ahead with the sale of the F-16s as an attempt to balance America’s strategic partnership with India by once again propping up Pakistan as a regional challenger.
Getting the hard core Taliban to concede the fight without loss of face is preferable to destroying them. The latter course is rendered risky by the linkages between the Afghan Taliban, Pakistani Taliban and Punjabi Taliban and their penetration of the Pakistani state and society.
