IDSA Comments

Could Pune be a Future Terrorist Target?

Pune, the Oxford of the East and the cultural capital of Maharashtra, is known for its educational institutions and manufacturing industries and as a home for retired service personnel. Lately, it has also become the hub for the automobile and IT sectors in western India. At the same time the city has now emerged as a link in the terrorist chain after the recent 7/11 Mumbai blasts.

Read More

The Indo-US Civil Nuclear Co-operation Agreement in the House of Representatives

On July 27, 2006, the US House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed the bill HR 5682 for United States and India Nuclear Co-operation Promotion Act of 2006. This bill was submitted to the House by its International Relations Committee, after modifying the bill HR 4974 which was referred to the House by the US Administration. The House in an "up-or-down vote" passed this bill by a wide margin, with 359 members voting for and 58 opposing it. A number of amendments seen as killers were defeated on the floor of the House.

Read More

Verification and the BTWC

In the post Cold War world, the term Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) emerged as a usable tool. This usage reached a crescendo with the 2002 Iraq disarmament crisis and the alleged existence of WMD in Iraq, which became the primary justification for the 2003 invasion of that country. The fear of WMD proliferation has generated grave concerns, given the increasing number and greater intensity of terrorist activities and their attempts to acquire WMD. Efforts to restrain the development and further spread of WMD have received greater focus in this environment of insecurity.

Read More

Renewed Conflagration in West Asia

The conflict involving the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) on two of its borders shows all signs of drawing the entire region into a new round of crisis. Though the current conflict may have been set off by years of hostilities between Israel and its regional adversaries, it is not a simple replay of the previous clashes.

Read More

Aceh’s Future Challenges

The Indonesian Parliament passed the Aceh Governance Bill on July 11, 2006. Dissemination of information about the bill started two days later to ensure that the peace building process, which came into force after the peace accord was signed with Free Aceh Movement (GAM, Gerakan Aceh Merdeka) in Helsinki in August 2005, stays on track. One clause of the Helsinki Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) related to laying down of arms by GAM rebels and the passing of the Aceh Governance bill.

Read More

Mumbai Serial Blasts Portend Dangerous Trends

As expected, a lesser-known terrorist group has claimed responsibility for the July 11 Mumbai blasts. After four days, the Lashkar-e-Qahhar claimed responsibility for the seven serial blasts that ripped through Mumbai commuter trains killing at least 228 and wounding approximately 900 people. It is believed that this is a sub-set of the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). According to an email received by a TV channel, Lashkar-e-Qahhar has links with the LeT, which is an armed outfit of Markaz-Dawa Wal-Irshad, an Islamic fundamentalist organisation in Pakistan.

Read More

Prospects for Democracy in Pakistan Appear Dim

The pro-democracy, anti-Musharraf movement launched by the combined opposition in May 2006 will once again put on trial the strength and determination of the people of Pakistan to snatch power from the clutches of the military. The Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD), a conglomerate of 15 parties, has demanded the resignation of President Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz by July 31, 2006, failing which a vote of no-confidence would be moved against the Musharraf regime. The demand was made in a resolution adopted by the Alliance on July 2.

Read More

Border Management and India’s North East

The management of India's international border along its North Eastern States has remained a crucial and complex issue. In an age of increasing interdependence, threats from unconventional sources pose a greater challenge to the country's security. An unmanaged border accentuates such threats by providing easy points of ingress and egress. Travel along India's borders with Bangladesh, Myanmar and Bhutan highlights the porous nature of these borders, which pass through difficult terrain of forest, rivers and mountains and make the task of guarding all the more challenging.

Read More

Taliban Successes: A Matter of Concern

Condoleeza Rice's visit to Pakistan on June 27-28, 2006 before she proceeded to Kabul indicated abundant concern on the part of the US government about the increasing strength of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the expectation that Pakistan would pull its weight to ensure better results in combating terrorism. This was made apparent in her clearly enunciated statement which emphasised the need for increased cooperation between Pakistan and the Afghan government on the one hand, and among the US, Pakistan and Afghanistan on the other.

Read More

Resurgence of Russian Economy

With its economy in a resurgent mode, Russia seems set to regain its traditional influence and power. But in tune with the popular Russian saying that "the bear is still licking its wounds," Russia has to overcome a number of obstacles to sustain its economic growth. Russia's economic resurgence has been made possible by a combination of factors: strong leadership and firm handling of the transition to a free market economy, integration into the world economy, the growth in oil and gas production and increasing oil revenues due to rising prices.

Read More

Hurdles Cleared in the US Congress for Nuclear Deal

After months of excruciating negotiations, testimonies and debates, the two crucial committees of the US Congress voted overwhelmingly in favour of the Indo-US nuclear agreement, setting the stage for a formal Congressional vote. The International Relations Committee of the House of Representatives approved a legislation favouring the agreement with a near three-fourths majority (37 to 5) on June 27. This was followed by a bigger mandate (16 to 2) in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on June 29, thus ensuring a definite "yes" vote at the joint session of the Congress.

Read More

Israel ups the ante in Gaza

Israel has stepped up its military offensive against Palestine. Codenamed Operation Summer Rain, it began on June 28 in response to the kidnapping of Corporal Gilad Shalit of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF). Palestinian militant groups kidnapped Shalit on June 25 when they raided a military post near Kibbutz Kerem Shalom in Israeli territory just outside the Gaza Strip. The militants had infiltrated into Israel through a 300-metre tunnel dug under the Gaza border fence near the military post. Two Israeli soldiers, Lt. Hanan Barak and Sgt. Pavel Slutsker were killed in the attack.

Read More

7/7: One Year On

July 7 marks the first anniversary of the 2005 terrorist attacks on London. These attacks and the thwarted ones on July 21 not only claimed the lives of more than fifty people of different nationalities, but once again brought to the fore a serious threat to global security, i.e., suicide bombing. The four suicide bombers, drawn from the Muslim community in Britain with South Asian and Caribbean origins, have left a permanent scar on the collective British psyche.

Read More

Strategic Implications of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway

On July 1, 2006 China inaugurated the world's highest railway - a 710-mile (1,956 kms) line connecting Golmud with Lhasa. It traverses 550 kms of unstable permafrost, reaching the heights of 16,400 feet above sea level, and completes the journey in forty-eight hours. The inauguration coincided with two other big anniversaries: the 85th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party and the 10th anniversary of Hong Kong's handover from British rule.

Read More

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: A Critical Evaluation

Over the last three years, the Central Asian Republics (CARs) have witnessed significant geopolitical shifts in the region - the resurgence of Russia, China's increasing influence, a colour revolution in Kyrgyzstan, unrest and shift in Uzbekistan's foreign policy, and the growing prominence of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Since 2004, the SCO's influence and role has been growing in the Central Asian region and the last two summits of the SCO are significant in terms of making the international community take notice of this regional grouping.

Read More

Nathu La: Pass To Prosperity But Also A Challenge

Nathu La, identified as the third mountain pass for border trade between India and China, is officially slated to open on July 6, 2006 after a gap of 44 years. Previous attempts to open the border pass had to be postponed due to lack of proper infrastructure. This time around, the infrastructure from the Indian side is complete. A field visit to Nathu La on June 25, 2006 revealed that the approach road has been constructed. And the warehouses, customs and administrative offices, banks etc. at Sherathang, the designated trade mart situated 5 km from Nathu La, have been completed.

Read More

ULFA’s Pressure Tactics

In the third round of talks held in New Delhi on June 22 with the 11-member People's Consultative Group (PCG), the Centre gave an assurance that it would engage with the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) directly within a fixed time frame. Union Home Minister, Shivraj Patil, who represented the Centre, also told the PCG that their demand to release ULFA Vice Chairman Pradip Gogoi, Cultural Secretary Pranati Deka, Publicity Secretary Mithinga Daimary, Executive Committee Member Ramu Mech and Ideologue Bhimakanta Buragohain would be considered in consultation with the Assam Government.

Read More

Sri Lanka’s Uncertain Future

Sri Lanka, which seemed all set to move towards peace and ethnic reconciliation, teeters on the brink of a grim crisis today. In an almost incredible turn of events, the forces of peace and progressive change appear exhausted and there is a sharp rise in tensions and uncertainty. The nagging feeling is growing externally and among the Sri Lankan liberal intelligentsia that yet another round of ethnic confrontation may break out soon. If this happens, it would put the island nation onto the path of an uncertain future.

Read More