US-Russia Relations

Although the US–Russia relations are hardly the central axis of contemporary international relations, the systemic confrontation between Moscow and Washington, which began in 2014, will become a decisive factor for the emerging international order. This confrontation was caused by factors much deeper than a mere clash of national interests in Ukraine or Syria.

The Kerry-Lavrov agreement did not work because those who had to cease fire were not willing to abide by it.

The new contours of a Russia-U.S. engagement appear to be shaping up. There is a growing realization in the U.S. that treating Russia as an adversary can be counter-productive.

Putin seems to have concluded that Russia must draw the line at Ukraine. The EU bid to sign trade agreement with Ukraine in December drew Russia’s ire and now Russia has moved to make Crimea its part thus changing the borders in Europe once again and deepening the distrust between Russia and the West at a time when serious issues like Syria, Iran and Afghanistan are yet to be resolved.

The West will be compelled by their own threats to impose economic sanctions against Russia. But Russia is no Iraq or Iran and may very well retaliate against Western companies, for example, Exxon Mobile is active in Russia and there are 6,000 German companies in Russia.

While President Putin has conveyed the message of tough military action, it is highly unlikely that he will order his troops to invade the majority ethnic Russian region of Crimea. Military brinkmanship can be seen as an attempt to force the West to include Russia as a partner in settlement of the crisis.

The durability of the New START will depend largely on how both sides value it as a means towards disarmament rather than for strategic competition.

With the Senate Committee on Foreign Relatons agreeing on September 16 to send the New START to the full Senate for ratification, the prospects of realising the potential of the Obama administration’s signal foreign policy achievement seem to have improved considerably.

While the US may continue to keep its contacts with the Pakistani army and its political leadership and strengthen its presence in Pakistan, can it contain the tide of Islamic radicalism prospering within Pakistan?

Russia has considerably enhanced its international position by leveraging Western weaknesses stemming from the unwinnable war in Afghanistan and the adverse impact of the financial crisis, as well as Western dependence in dealing with Iran and North Korea.