Umar Cheema’s abduction and torture by ISI officials recently is part of the strong arm tactics employed by the Pakistan Army and its intelligence wing to force journalists to fall in line.
India must stay engaged, keep a low profile, earn the goodwill of the Afghan people through its multifaceted assistance programme, and stay away from any costly misadventure in the security sector.
India has been fairly successful in firewalling the radical blowback emanating from Pakistan in the past and need not be overly worried about the impending US withdrawal.
A recent New York Times report that 11,000 soldiers of the Peoples’ Liberation Army have been stationed in the Gilgit-Baltistan region of the PoK, carries important implications for India. For India to put forth its legitimate claim to the whole of Kashmir, the time is now or else, never.
At their second Summit in Sochi on August 18, 2010, Russia, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan agreed to reinforce their cooperation. The United States has supported the Russian initiative due to its own compulsions and the China factor. India needs to pursue a well considered “Eurasian Heartland” policy in the context of these developments.
The ISI threat assessment may be received with great enthusiasm in Western capitals and policy circles, but for observers from the subcontinent it is neither ‘fundamental’ nor a ‘shift’.
Apart from alleviating the material plight of the people, transforming the feudal mindset and operationalising reforms to induce fair play and social justice should be one of the long term priority areas for the civilian government in Pakistan.
A clean-up operation by the Pakistan Army could actually end up sharpening the ethnic polarisation in the city, which in turn could lead to the conflagration that everyone in Karachi fears.
The anger and frustration of the people against the political parties and the nimble footed response of the Islamists will result in disaffection of people towards the state and rising support for the jihadis.
