Northeast India

Myanmar and India have followed separate political paths only to find it converging in recent times. Myanmar’s other neighbour China has had a much larger footprint in the country. India has to calibrate its engagement with Myanmar to not just effectively implement its Look East policy but also manage the contiguous border regions of Northeast India given the ground realities.

The recent violent incidents carried out by the Kamtapur Liberation Organisation (KLO) in the sensitive eastern and north-eastern parts India have serious security implications. Conscious intervention of the centre in concert with the state governments of West Bengal and Assam and even Sikkim, as well as with cooperation of the Bhutan government is required at the earliest.

India’s security strategy for the economic corridors and connectivity will have to entail water tight anti-drugs control measures and mechanisms to snuff out the possibilities of surges in narcotics trafficking that may result from better connectivity and established networks of peoples across the region.

The internal security situation in India reflected a marked improvement in 2012-2013 relative to previous years. This Issue Brief offers an assessment of the major trends in 2013 for Jammu and Kashmir, the land borders of India, Naxalism, the Northeast, terrorism and radicalism in India. It also offers a prognosis for the year ahead.

The recent violence indicates that armed groups have not disarmed and that state forces are simply unable to keep “extortion” networks in check. While the cease-fire agreement signed in 1997 has been the harbinger of the subsequent peace talks, blatant violations of the agreement by the outfit render the framework of the talks weak and question its effectiveness and legitimacy.

The importance of the road network in the north-east needs no emphasis. India is now raising the 17 Mountain Corps to augment its strategic strike capability vis-à-vis China. The BRO is the key instrument to realise the road network objective and provide the required logistical capability to this Corps.

The State hardly has any `balance from its current revenues` to take on additional internal security expenditure or fund its own development activities. In this backdrop, the State has perforce to depend on the Centre to maintain a security establishment and sustain it on a long-term basis.

It is well established that the armed ethnic groups in Myanmar act as the interlocking chain for the illegal weapons flow from Yunnan in China via Myanmar to the Northeast India. Reports indicate that the most effective illegal weapons trader in Myanmar is the armed ethnic group, the United Wa State Army (UWSA).

Gestures for peace talks in Manipur by the government indicate a willingness to engage in dialogue with armed groups, which in itself is a step towards reconciliation. Equally important is to ensure that these gestures are seen as a genuine desire to engage with the real issues.

Creation of new states is likely to undermine India’s polity and governance and consequently the socio-economic progress. Cost-benefit analysis suggests that only in some respects the newly-created states have performed better.