Sino-Indian Ties Critical for Emerging Strategic Systemic Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao's visit to New Delhi on April 11-12 comes soon after that of US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice (March 16) and will be followed by Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's visit in end-April. While this scheduling may be a matter of coincidence, the outcome of the Wen visit and the manner in which it impacts the Sino-Indian relationship has the potential to significantly shape the emerging Asian strategic systemic and related security landscape. C Uday Bhaskar | April 11, 2005 | IDSA Comments
Global Oil Politics and the Energy Security in the Asian region The oil price in the international energy market appears set to remain high for the rest of this year despite the attempt of the oil giants to increase production. The major sufferers of the price hike are those Asian countries whose dependency on Persian Gulf oil is alarmingly growing day by day. Meanwhile, the OPEC countries’ plan to revise the price band of oil to a higher level, currently set at $22-$28 per barrel, suggests that the international oil price would not come back to a ‘pre-Iraq level’. J Nandakumar | April 11, 2005 | IDSA Comments
Major Shift in U.S. Policy to South Asia: Democracy in Pakistan More Critical Than F 16s The visit of US Secretary of State Ms. Condi Rice to Delhi on March 16 had generated considerable optimism about where India-US ties are headed and this was highlighted in my last column (March 24). However events over the last week have been even more promising and the telephone conversation between US President Mr. Bush and the Indian PM Dr Manmohan Singh on March 25 and the subsequent background briefing by the US State Department indicate that the Bush team has outlined an ambitious policy towards South Asia. C Uday Bhaskar | April 05, 2005 | IDSA Comments
Tug-of-possible-war over Taiwan On March 7, China unveiled a new Anti-Secession Law in its third session of the 10th National People’s Congress meeting. The law legalizes China to take military action against the renegade province, Taiwan. The full text of the Anti-Secession Law stated a three-point scenario for ‘‘non-peaceful action’’ against Taiwan. Abanti Bhattacharya | April 05, 2005 | IDSA Comments
F-16s: Can we trust Uncle Sam? The US offer to sell F16s and F18s to India, announced on March 25, has to be seen in context. True, this initiative is linked to the White House decision to lift the ban on supplying F16s to Pakistan and the more cynical view is that the US manufacturers of these aircraft will now laugh all the way to the bank as the sub-continent gets sucked into an arms race. C Uday Bhaskar | April 05, 2005 | IDSA Comments
Securing the Sea Frontier: China’s Pursuit of Sovereignty Claims in the South China Sea China’s maritime territorial claims, and its diplomatic and military measures to attain them, have caused much regional concern in recent years. The expansive maritime sovereignty claims of China in the South China Sea flow from three key goals: the completion of its incomplete nationalist project of territorial consolidation and unifying the state; the desire to control the contested maritime periphery; and the garnering of sea-based resources such as oil and gas that have assumed critical importance for fuelling the economy of a rapidly modernising China. Sujit Dutta | April 2005 | Strategic Analysis
Indo-US Relations: Perception and Reality This paper attempts to provide an overview of significant recent developments in US policy towards South Asia and their implications for India. It examines the proposed cooperation between India and the US, focusing on advanced technology issues. It also places this issue in the context of US-Pakistan ties, as this provides a relevant referent for comparison. This paper concludes that while the US and India are formally expanding their strategic cooperation, the results on the ground are still not in step with the rhetoric. G. Balachandran | April 2005 | Strategic Analysis
Politics in Post-Taliban Afghanistan: An Assessment The Afghan war is far from over. With the political process that began in December 2001 having completed three years, it is pertinent to revisit and examine the course of the post-Taliban Afghan politics. Afghanistan’s attempt to move towards peace and democracy has been perilous and remains so. The ouster of the Taliban and subsequent signing of the Bonn Agreement at the end of 2001 marked yet another turning point in the long-drawn Afghan conundrum. Vishal Chandra | April 2005 | Strategic Analysis
The Revival of Insurgency in Balochistan Four times since Pakistan’s creation, the Baloch, who never wanted to be part of Pakistan, have rebelled, demanding autonomy or an independent state. After three decades, Balochistan is in turmoil again; the Baloch rebels have been targeting the government institutions with impunity. The insurgents appear well versed in military craft as well as appear to be flush with arms and ammunition. An insurgency of this magnitude cannot be sustained without any external assistance. This paper attempts to analyse the foreign hand in Balochistan. Alok Bansal | April 2005 | Strategic Analysis
Cooperation Among Maritime Security Forces: Imperatives for India and Southeast Asia The end of the Cold War witnessed a realignment of equations amongst states to adapt to the changed world order. Within its ‘Look East’ policy, India initiated an economic engagement with its extended eastern neighbourhood to generate political trust and eventually forge multifaceted bonds. Due to the salience of Southeast Asia in geo-strategic terms, cooperation among maritime security forces has lately become imperative to respond to transnational security threats and realise common politico-strategic objectives. Gurpreet S Khurana | April 2005 | Strategic Analysis
