Jagannath P. Panda

The turn of the twenty-first century brought with it the miraculous economic rise of China in Asia and beyond; American strategy towards the region, denoted by the ‘pivot to Asia’ and acceptance of a ‘Pacific Century’ for the US,1 became increasingly China-centric. Building partnerships, forging security and commercial pacts with Asian countries and enhancing maritime presence across the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) eventually became the fulcrum of America’s Asia strategy, with mainstream strategic perception in the United States on China becoming increasingly negative.

• Published: January 2021
• Strategic Analysis

Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, Dr. Jagannath Panda's Guest Edited special issue on 'Quad Plus: Form versus Substance' has been published in the Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, Vol.3, No.5, 2020, Air University, USA. 

This special issue brings together different national and scholarly perspectives to analyze the potential of the Quad Plus from varied national and regional connotations, having 18 articles together. The special issue considers whether the Quad Plus framework can emerge as a central focus of the emerging Indo-Pacific synergies or approaches of various regions and nation states. In fact, taking into account the changing realities in the post-pandemic world, there are crucial questions that must be addressed to better understand the future trajectory of international relations in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. First, what is the significance of the Quad Plus dialogue, and what are its implications for the post–COVID-19 Indo-Pacific and Asian order? Second, who are the major stakeholders in the Quad Plus mechanism, including and beyond the Quad 2.0 nations? Last and more importantly, how can the Quad Plus mechanism grow beyond its current abstract existence to find synergy with national and multilateral Indo-Pacific initiatives? In reference to these questions, this special issue seeks to assess the prospects of the Quad Plus proposition and to test its feasibility as well as its future. 

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• Published: 23 December, 2020

Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, Dr. Jagannath Panda's article “India's ‘Africa Adventure’ in the Indian Ocean Commission” has been published in Fletcher Security Review, Vol.7, No.1, 2020.

The article argues, India's inclusion in the IOC as an observer member echoes its "continental connect" inclusive construct that New Delhi seeks to establish between Asia and Africa through the maritime domain.

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• Published: 16 December, 2020

Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, Dr. Jagannath Panda's article 'Biden and the US-Japan-South Korea Trilateral' has been published in Japan Forward, on December 11, 2020.

The article analyses limitations to the US role as a mediator in Japan-South Korea ties. Despite Biden’s attempts to assuage the rather complex historical dispute between Japan and South Korea, success might be unlikely. Nevertheless, continued U.S. efforts to ensure open dialogue and diplomatic exchanges between Seoul and Tokyo will be crucial to regional - and by extension, global security.

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• Published: 11 December, 2020

Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, Dr. Jagannath Panda's article ‘Japan Is Ready to Become a Formal Member of Five Eyes’ has been published in Debating Japan (Vol.3, Issue 8) at the CSIS, Washington DC, on December 08, 2020.

The article argues that the intelligence advantages that Tokyo can bring to the Five-Eyes table are clear. However, for being accepted to the rather elite alliance, Japan must convince the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada that its domestic counterintelligence measures and new legislations can sufficiently protect state secrets while adding substance to the Five Eyes grouping. This will require not only a bolstering of its domestic laws and technological apparatus but also a sophisticated diplomatic approach.

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• Published: 8 December, 2020

Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, Dr. Jagannath Panda's article ‘Suga's Strategic Choices in 2021’ has been published by the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies.

The article argues that Suga's most pressing challenge in 2021 will be reviving Japan's dwindling economy that has rescinded into a recession – the worst since the Second World War – amidst COVID-19. Critical issues such as a prolonged deflation, quick growing government debt, a declining global demand for Japanese exports and weak productivity outputs have been exacerbated by the pandemic. These have been further complicated by an overall shrinking population and an ageing society. Such challenges cannot be resolved in the short term; even in the long-run, they have remained persistent problems despite Abe's flagship “Abenomics” outlook.

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• Published: 27 November, 2020

Research Fellow, MP-IDSA, Dr. Jagannath Panda's article ‘Australia-Japan pact heightens China’s ‘regional NATO’ fear’ has been published in the Asia Times on November 23, 2020.

The article argues that the RAA is thus far agreed upon only in principle, with its implementation contingent upon approval of the Japanese Diet. Irrespective of the challenges the RAA needs to overcome, the strategic imperatives of the agreement for bilateral ties, trilateral groupings, the Quad 2.0 as well as the Indo-Pacific region vis-à-vis China are unmistakably abundant. The RAA therefore forms a prudent and necessary step for the future security of the region – which must be a critical priority for all Indo-Pacific nations.

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• Published: 23 November, 2020

Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, Dr. Jagannath Panda's Special Featured Article ‘The Trans-Himalayan 'Quad', Beijing's Territorialism, and India’ has been published by China Brief in Jamestown Foundation, USA, on November 12, 2020. 

The article argues that China is seeking to combine economic cooperation with geopolitical gains in the trans-Himalayan region through multiple new assemblages and pathways. The fluid and open-ended nature of the BRI projects have been easily repackaged in China’s post-pandemic diplomacy. In such a scenario, it is imperative for India to abandon its languid foreign policy approach, exercise more pre-emptive authority and delineate its agenda well, not only to secure its border territories but also exude more confidence as a strong middle power in the Indo-Pacific.

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• Published: 12 November, 2020

Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, Dr. Jagannath Panda's article ‘Tokyo's Search for Security Through Aegis-equipped Warships’ has been published in Japan Forward on November 10, 2020.

The article argues that the decision to order the two Aegis-equipped warships and more importantly to increase the defense budget is derived from Tokyo’s security outlook towards the region.

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• Published: 10 November, 2020

Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, Dr. Jagannath Panda's co-authored Brief ‘Balancing China in the Indo-Pacific: France Joins Hands with India and Australia’ has been published by the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Sweden, on November 02, 2020.

The brief argues that balancing China’s unilateral authoritarian outreach is increasingly becoming a priority for democratic powers. Among European powers, France has taken the lead in shoring up defenses against China. France is also an Indo-Pacific power, and Paris has now joined hands with India and Australia to advance a trilateral that appears to be balancing out China.

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• Published: 2 November, 2020