Regardless of the concessions Beijing is willing to offer on the NSG and bilateral issues, New Delhi has reason to continue viewing China’s maritime manoeuvres in the Indian Ocean Region with suspicion.
The South China Sea is a zone of contention between China and other nations in the region. The US Navy has decreased the number of ships available to counter Chinese encroachments here and this power vacuum may be exploited by the Chinese Maritime Militia (CMM). The militia is comprised of fishing vessels that are used to augment the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), and possesses sophisticated communication and GPS technology.
Raising a Central Marine Police Force and wasting resources on their training and equipment is neither necessary nor advisable given that the country already has a central organisation to protect the coast – the Indian Coast Guard.
A sound sensor array in the Indian Ocean could prove invaluable for India which has a major anti-submarine warfare handicap and a lack of operational submarines.
India’s future submarine fleet operations are likely to involve SSKs and SSNs operating in the littoral spaces, in a strategic environment sanitized and protected by SSBNs. If New Delhi can ensure compliance with present construction deadlines, it could put its submarine modernization plans back on track.
Maritime security challenges in the Indian Ocean Region continue to be an issue of concern and this effective regional mechanism needs to be strengthened to deal effectively with them.
For Indian observers, it is useful to extrapolate known Chinese position in the Indian Ocean Region and assess Beijing’s likely strategic behaviour. Indian policymakers might well recognise the fact that once China finds itself in a position of maritime advantage, diplomatic engagement has limited utility as a bargaining tactic.
