The Political Chaos and Prevailing Uncertainty in Pakistan

Summary

The imposition of Governor’s rule in KP undermines the spirit of the 18^th constitutional amendment, which granted legislative and financial autonomy to provincial authorities. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s ongoing long march allows it to intensify mobilisation in the province, which may cripple the provincial machinery in the coming days.

Ever since the removal of Imran Khan from office through a No Confidence Motion in April 2022, Pakistan has been witnessing intense bouts of political instability and chaos. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has a long list of grievances against the ‘hybrid’ regime in Islamabad and Rawalpindi, which includes, inter alia, the removal of its leader Imran Khan from office at the behest of a foreign power,[i] targeting of workers and activists, conducting unfair elections and stealing the mandate given by the people to PTI, and wrongfully implicating a number of its leaders, including Imran Khan, in false and fabricated cases of corruption, riots, terrorism, and violation of official secret act.

It has been more than three years since Imran Khan, his wife Bushra Bibi, Yasmin Rashid, Omar Sarfraz Cheema, Shah Mahmood Qureshi and many other leaders have been in jail.  The government, on its part, claims that PTI leaders and activists are behind bars because of their unlawful deeds in the past. They are serving their respective prison sentences as awarded by the judiciary following the thorough legal processes. Imran Khan’s incarceration is unprecedented in the sense that no head of any other political party in the past remained in jail consecutively for more than three years. Unlike other politicians, he even refused to go into exile or be confined to his Bani Gala residence when the powers that be reportedly offered him a deal.

Despite being in jail, Imran Khan remains the country’s most popular political leader. In fact, his jail term has massively increased his popularity across the country. His supporters see him as someone who defied all odds and made no compromises, even under adverse circumstances. PTI’s provincial government, with a two-thirds majority in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), a sensitive province bordering Afghanistan, allows it to remain relevant and sustain its efforts to secure relief for its jailed leaders. Besides, the release of its leaders, one of the biggest bones of contention between the government and PTI, is the lack of flexibility in access to Imran Khan. Because of the hardened stance of the hybrid regime in Islamabad, PTI leadership and family members often find it difficult to meet Imran Khan in jail.

Whenever possible, the PTI leadership uses meetings to discuss key developments and receive broader guidance from Imran Khan. At PTI’s request, the Islamabad High Court directed the Adiala Jail administration in 2025 to allow visitors to meet Imran Khan twice a week, on Tuesdays and Thursdays.[ii] However, despite a clear court order, the government often blocks visitors from meeting the jailed leader. Over time, the issue has become one of the most sensitive in the country, around which intense political polarisation is taking place. To address the situation, PTI has adopted a two-pronged strategy. On the one hand, it has been using legal and constitutional remedies available under existing laws and the constitution; on the other, it has been applying constant political and moral pressure on the ruling dispensation and the security establishment.

The Demand for New Units amid Voices of Systemic Collapse

Pakistani society is internally fractured, whereas its polity is deeply polarised and divided over several issues. In recent years, various South Asian countries, including Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and India, witnessed varying degrees of youth mobilisation over issues related to corruption, governance and rising unemployment rates. Pakistan’s security establishment knew the internal situation was ripe for such a possibility. Therefore, to divert people’s attention from pressing issues in the country, it facilitated discussions on creating new administrative units. On 30 July 2026, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, speaking at the Pakistan Economic Summit 2026, stirred a political storm by saying Pakistan’s system had collapsed.[iii] He argued for creating new administrative units to provide good governance to the people. Director General Inter Services Public Relations (DGISPR) Gen. Ahmad Sharif Chaudhry seconded this, stating at a news conference on 31 July that good governance is essential to Pakistan’s security and stability, without which none of Pakistan’s issues can be resolved.[iv]

Both the PPP and PML-N believe that creating new provinces may adversely affect their political fortunes. Although PML-N did not reject the proposal for obvious reasons, its provincial government in Punjab took initiatives to conduct local government elections. In early August, the Punjab provincial cabinet approved more than PKR 12.52 billion to hold the long-delayed local government elections.[v] Many see the move as an attempt to counter the idea of new administrative units.  Sindh Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah completely dismissed the proposal as a stereotype and unacceptable to the people of Sindh.[vi] The Sindh Assembly then passed a unanimous resolution rejecting any proposal to divide the province or alter its territorial limits.[vii]

PTI’s Call for Protest

PTI leadership has repeatedly complained about the denial of access to Imran Khan amid his deteriorating health condition. In mid-July, the PTI parliamentary party, in a meeting chaired by its Chairman Gohar Ali Khan, decided to launch a nationwide movement from 5 August 2026 to secure Imran Khan’s release from jail.[viii] The day marked the completion of his three-year term in prison. PTI General Secretary Salman Akram Raja later made it clear that the programme would include public meetings, demonstrations and a long march.[ix] The situation worsened for the ruling dispensation when Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) Emir Hafiz Naeemur Rehman, on 21 July, announced a separate nationwide highway blockade and sit-ins on 7 August over the government’s high petroleum levy.[x] At a press conference, he said JI would mobilise public support ahead of the protest by holding 20,000 nationwide corner meetings.[xi] Given the possibility of PTI and JI holding simultaneous yet separate protests sent shock waves in Islamabad and Rawalpindi.

The politico-security elites in Pakistan knew JI’s street power, particularly in Punjab and Sindh, and PTI’s ability to mobilise large crowds in KP quickly. Therefore, serious efforts to diffuse the situation began soon. As preparations for PTI’s upcoming rally were in full swing, its leader, Zubair Ahmad Qureshi, announced that 5 August would be observed as a black day and a day of referendum, on which KP Chief Minister Sohail Afridi would make an important announcement.[xii] On the eve of the 5 August rally, Gohar Ali Khan reiterated that the movement would end only with the release of PTI founder and his spouse, Bushra Bibi.[xiii] Speaking at the Peshawar rally the next day, Sohail Afridi underlined that Imran Khan completed three years in prison and people have come out throughout the country to protest against his illegal incarceration.

The Chief Minister also argued that despite following various constitutional and legal ways, Imran Khan did not get justice. He went on to underline PTI’s demands such as ensuring justice for Khan and his spouse Bushra Bibi, and removing the restrictions imposed on him regarding meetings with friends, family members and his personal physician.[xiv] He warned that if these demands were not met before 20 September, PTI would march towards Islamabad on 27 September. This was followed by JI’s nationwide protests against the soaring fuel prices on 7 August. Although the protests across the country remained peaceful, the government remained on tenterhooks throughout the day. While addressing party workers in Lahore, JI Emir announced that the party would soon launch historic sit-ins outside Governor Houses in all four provinces.[xv]

PTI, meanwhile, tried to enlist allies for its own long march. On 10 August, while speaking to Hamid Mir on his show Capital Talk, Sohail Afridi said PTI’s entire political leadership and its ally, the Tehreek Tahaffuz-i-Ayeen Pakistan (TTAP), were fully on board with the long march call.[xvi] As preparations for the march were underway, the judiciary offered important relief to its jailed leader. On 18 August 2026, agreeing to PTI’s demands, a three-member Supreme Court bench directed the government to shift Imran Khan from Adiala Jail to Shifa International Hospital within 48 hours.[xvii] Uzair Bhandari, one of the former Prime Minister’s lawyers, told Al Jazeera that they expected Imran Khan to remain in hospital until at least the next hearing on 16 September 2026.[xviii]

The court order came as PTI repeatedly demanded that the government facilitate meetings with Imran Khan in jail. An enthusiastic yet conscious PTI did not want to complicate matters and issued an advisory to its workers and supporters to stay away from the hospital where Imran Khan was to be shifted. As the Supreme Court deadline approached, the government, instead of shifting the former Prime Minister to Shifa International Hospital, took him to Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences and, after a brief stay, transferred him back to Adiala jail. This clear violation of the Supreme Court order irked the PTI, which went on to file contempt of court proceedings against the government.

Meanwhile, JI embarked on a long march to Islamabad to press its demands for lower fuel prices. The March began on 20 September from Karachi and headed towards Islamabad.[xix] JI’s Emir had earlier warned the government that if it did not withdraw the high levy on petroleum products, the protest could turn into a movement to oust the government.[xx] Given the severity of the situation, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif intervened and called the JI Emir, asking him to cancel or postpone the super long march. Prime Minister’s office confirmed that the two leaders agreed to meet after the Prime Minister returned from New York.[xxi] After that, JI temporarily paused the march in hopes of getting relief from the government.

Government’s Strategy

As the JI threat got postponed, the government focused its entire attention towards the PTI protest. The hybrid regime in Islamabad had neither the appetite nor the patience to deal with another round of PTI protests at a time when people on the ground were suffering from rising prices of essential commodities and looking to the government for some relief. Therefore, the ruling dispensation swung into action and adopted a three-pronged strategy to diffuse the situation. First, it sent feelers to PTI about a possible negotiation to defuse the situation. Secondly, leaders from the ruling party suddenly started talking about imposing emergency or Governor’s rule in KP. On 21 September, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi hinted that the federal government was consulting the Law Ministry on legal options for KP, including Governor’s rule.[xxii] Thirdly, the ruling dispensation took measures to secure entry and exit points in Islamabad.

Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan’s former representative to the UN, claims that to deal with a possible protest march, the government turned the country into “Containeristan” by placing a large number of containers and barricades to stop the protesters from entering the capital territory.[xxiii] It seems PTI was not fully prepared for a long march. Therefore, it responded positively to the government’s offer of a negotiated settlement and postponed its long march till 4 October. However, it strongly reacted to calls to impose emergency or Governor’s rule in the province and warned of dire consequences. The postponement of the march for one week, however, gave both PTI and the government time to seriously consider their available options. As the deadline approached, the two sides held two rounds of talks on 3 and 4 October before parting ways.

PTI was represented by Barrister Gohar Khan, Raja Nasir Abbas, Amir Dogar, Asad Qaiser, Haleem Adil Sheikh and Salam Akram Raja. The government delegation also included Federal Ministers Amir Muqam, Syed Mushtaq Raza Naqvi, Minister of State Talal Chaudhry, and Rana Sanaullah. PPP’s Sherry Rehman, Naveed Qamar and Ijaz Hussain Jakhrani were also part of the negotiation. The deadlock persisted in the second round of talks over the government’s insistence on PTI’s cooperation in handling terrorism in KP, its repeated threat of emergency and Governor’s rule, and PTI’s demand to meet Imran Khan before finalising its approach.

Finally, before 3:00 am on 4 October, the negotiators left the meeting room. Asad Qaiser later claimed the PTI delegation informed the government of its demands, including a meeting with Imran Khan. He said PTI stipulated that a meeting with Imran Khan was required before proceeding with the matter.[xxiv] PTI General Secretary Salman Akram Raja accused the government of not being ready to allow PTI leaders to meet Imran Khan. He also blamed the government for its unilateral decision to deal with terror issues in KP without taking the provincial government on board. Minister of State for Interior Tallal Chaudhry, however, said the talks failed primarily because the KP government could not assure whether it would cooperate in the fight against terrorism in the future.[xxv]

The Ongoing Long March and Imposition of Governor’s Rule

As talks failed in the early hours of 4 October, PTI went ahead with its proposed long march, and the government has been flexing its muscles to impose emergency or Governor’s rule. Soon after the deadlock, Mohsin Naqvi met KP Governor Faisal Karim Kundi to discuss the political and security situation amid speculations of ‘imminent’ governor’s rule in the province.[xxvi] KP Chief Minister Sohail Afridi has been leading the march, which started from Lakki Marwat on 4 October and was expected to reach Swabi on 14 October, from where it could advance towards Islamabad. The last leg of the March has yet to be officially announced. Some quarters were still hopeful of a third round of talks before the final leg of the march was announced.

On 10 October, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, along with Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, Advisor to Prime Minister Rana Sanaullah, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, Attorney General Mansoor Usman Awan, and Law Minister Azam Nazeer Tarar, met President Asif Ali Zardari to discuss the prevailing security and political situation in the country.[xxvii] PPP’s Sherry Rehman and Syed Naveed Qamar were also present. During the meeting, the leaders agreed to convene separate sessions of the National Assembly and the Senate on 13 October. It is believed that the decision to impose emergency and Governor’s rule was also finalised. The next day, the Prime Minister chaired the federal cabinet, in which it was decided that the Prime Minister would advise the President to exercise his constitutional authority and impose an emergency in KP under Articles 232 and 234 of the Constitution.[xxviii]

Sometimes, Emergency and Governor’s Rule are used interchangeably in Pakistan. However, these are two different provisions. Emergency is imposed under Article 232

if the President is satisfied that a grave emergency exists in which the security of Pakistan, or any part thereof, is threatened by war or external aggression, or by internal disturbance beyond the power of a Provincial Government to control, he may issue a Proclamation of Emergency.[xxix]

Article 234 applies when a provincial government cannot be carried out in accordance with the Constitution. This is called Governor’s rule. Article 232 specifically deals with security concerns and disturbances, including war and internal aggression, whereas Article 234 deals with situations where constitutional breakdown has taken place in a province.[xxx] In the present circumstances, both provisions have been applied in KP, meaning an emergency has been imposed and the Governor has been made in charge of the province.

PTI chairman Gohar Ali Khan strongly condemned the imposition of emergency and said the decision “is an extremely alarming and grave political mistake and an undemocratic measure – the people will never accept such actions against their rights”.[xxxi] It is too early to predict the impact on socio-political stability in KP and how people of the province would react to this extraordinary move. It is also unclear what the fate of PTI’s long march will be. PTI will most certainly challenge the imposition of emergency and Governor’s rule in the judiciary on the one hand and go for intense mobilisation of people on the other.

Conclusion

Political uncertainty and chaos has become the new normal in Pakistan and those at the helm of the hybrid regime in Islamabad and Rawalpindi no longer care about it as long as it does not threaten their own position. The decision to impose emergency and Governor’s rule in KP appears to be the handiwork of the security establishment. An image-conscious Pakistan Army was unable to deal with criticism over its inability to effectively deal with internal security issues, often plagued by the rising tide of terror attacks in KP and Balochistan. Unlike the federal government, PTI’s provincial government in KP did not give the security establishment a free hand to carry out military operations. It argued that past military operations failed to yield the expected outcome. Instead, people in KP suffered a lot due to large-scale violence resulting in death, destruction and displacement.

Dismissing a provincial government enjoying two-third majority in the assembly has its own set of challenges. History suggests that imposing governor’s rule or emergency in the provinces creates more problems than it solves. Instead of forging unity, it further alienates the people. In 1947, the dismissal of Khan Sahib’s ministry in the erstwhile North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) led to large-scale disgruntlement in the region. Similarly, the dismissal of the provincial governments of Balochistan and NWFP during Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1973 resulted in a major political crisis. Moreover, the recent move undermines the spirit of the 18th Amendment, which gave legislative and financial autonomy to provincial authorities.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the Government of India.

[i] Imran Khan and PTI had accused the security establishment for bringing down the PTI government at the behest of United States. On the basis of a classified cable, sent to Islamabad by Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States in 2022, Imran Khan had claimed that US had a hand in his removal. For details, see “What is the cypher case that led to jail term for Pakistan’s Imran Khan?”, Al Jazeera, 30 January 2024.

[ii] Malik Asad and Ikram Junaidi, “Imran allowed twice-a-week meetings, sans press talks”, Dawn, 25 March 2025.

[iii] “Accept It or Not, the System Has Already Collapsed: Mohsin Naqvi’s Fiery Speech”, Sama TV, 30 July 2026.

[iv] Baqir Sajjad Syed, “Military throws its weight behind call for governance reset”, Dawn, 1 August 2026.

[v] “Punjab CM Maryam okays Rs12.52b funds to hold local govt elections”, The Nation, 7 August 2026.

[vi] Mohammad Hussain Khan, Wajih Ahmad Sheikh and Amir Wasim, “Naqvi’s remarks ignite fresh debate in political circles”, Dawn, 1 August 2026.

[vii] Muhammad Saleem Jhandeer, “‘Sindh is one, shall remain one’: Assembly passes resolution against division of province”, The Express Tribune, 3 September 2026.

[viii] Ikram Junaidi, “PTI to launch nationwide movement from Aug 5”, Dawn, 16 July 2026.

[ix] Ibid.

[x] Ahmed Faraz Khan, “Jamaat-i-Islami announces nationwide road blockade against petroleum levy”, Dawn, 21 July 2026.

[xi] Ibid.

[xii] “PTI gears up for August 5 rally”, The Express Tribune, 29 July 2026.

[xiii] “PTI to launch movement for Imran Khan’s release on August 5”, The Nation, 4 August 2026.

[xiv] “CM KPK Sohail Afridi Speech in 5 August Jalsa , Final Call Announced in Peshawar Jalsa”, Naya Pakistan YouTube, 5 August 2026.

[xv] “JI stages nationwide protests against inflation, soaring fuel prices, The News International, 7 August 2026.

[xvi] “PTI leadership, TTAP on board for September 27 long march to Islamabad: Sohail Afridi”, Dawn, 10 August 2026.

[xvii] Olivia Ireland, “Pakistan top court orders ex-PM Imran Khan be moved to hospital from jail”, BBC, 18 August 2026.

[xviii] Abid Hussain, “Pakistan top court orders Imran Khan’s hospital transfer amid access battle” Al Jazeera, 18 August 2026.

[xix] Sajjad Hussain, “Pakistan’s right-wing Jamaat launches long march against soaring fuel prices”, Press Trust of India, 20 September 2026.

[xx] “JI threatens movement to oust govt”, The Express Tribune, 16 September 2026.

[xxi] Ahmad Fraz Khan, “Jamaat heeds PM’s request to postpone capital march”, Dawn, 23 September 2026.

[xxii] Rameez Khan, “Kundi rules out governor’s rule in K-P”, The Express Tribune, 24 September 2026.

[xxiii] Maleeha Lodhi, “Back to the future”, Dawn, 5 October 2026.

[xxiv] “Deadlock persists as hours-long govt, PTI talks end without breakthrough”, The Express Tribune, 3 October 2026.

[xxv] Ikram Junaidi, “After hours of negotiations, second round of govt-opposition talks ends in a ‘deadlock’”, Dawn, 3 October 2026.

[xxvi] Syed Irfan Raza, “Naqvi, Kundi mull governor’s rule”, Dawn, 5 October 2026.

[xxvii] “PM Shehbaz meets President Zardari as Centre mulls imposition of emergency in KP”, Dawn, 10 October 2026.

[xxviii] Syed Irfan Raza, “Emergency, governor’s rule imposed in KP as president approves cabinet decision”, Dawn, 11 October 2026.

[xxix] The Constitution of Islamic Republic of Pakistan, Islamabad, National Assembly of Pakistan, 2025, p.143.

[xxx] Zebunnisa Burki, “Explainer: Emergency or governor’s rule or both?”, The News International, 11 October 2026.

[xxxi] Syed Irfan Raza, “Emergency, governor’s rule imposed in KP as president approves cabinet decision”, no. 28.