Geopolitics and South Korea’s Growing Arms Exports

Summary

South Korea’s increased arms exports, against the backdrop of a changing geopolitical landscape in Northeast Asia, have driven economic growth for this export-oriented country. Seoul aims to emerge as the world’s fourth-largest arms exporter, after the United States, France and Russia.

Introduction

South Korea has emerged as one of the world’s major weapons exporters.[1] South Korea exports defence products such as howitzers, fighter jets, rocket launchers, tanks and submarines worldwide. The beginning of the Russia–Ukraine war in 2022 has further increased the demand for arms from South Korea.

South Korea has been exporting weapons to the countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which are supporting Kyiv in its war against Moscow. South Korean weapons producers have gained a reputation for timely delivery, good quality and reasonable prices.^[2] To meet the growing demand, South Korean defence industries have expanded arms production and poured resources into developing more innovative weapon systems. The South Korean defence industry showcased its advancements during South Korea’s 76th Armed Forces Day in October 2024.[3]

Since the 1970s, the South Korean state has played a crucial role in the country’s arms production.[4] Constant threats of North Korean aggression and South Korea’s export-oriented economic development strategy drove the rise of the defence industry in this Northeast Asian country. South Korea’s recent emergence as a major arms exporter also reflects the region’s changing geopolitical landscape. The current Lee Jae Myung administration in Seoul, after coming to power in June 2025, has made promoting arms production and achieving self-reliance in national defence its major security objectives.[5]

Rise of South Korean Defence Industry

The arms race between Seoul and Pyongyang largely drove the development of South Korea’s defence industry.^[6] The recent rise of South Korea’s arms exports can be traced back to the 1970s, during the Heavy and Chemical Industrialisation (HCI) drive, against the backdrop of American threats to reduce military support to South Korea. The Park Chung-hee administration (1961–1979) promoted arms industrialisation alongside the country’s rapid economic development. This strategy of “militarised industrialisation” aimed to make South Korea self-reliant in arms production.[7] The South Korean government under Park collaborated with family-controlled mega business groups, or chaebol, such as Hyundai, Samsung and Daewoo, to produce arms for the country.

As an export-oriented development strategy, arms exports have also been regarded as a ‘driver of economic growth’ in South Korea. In this regard, the sudden increase in South Korea’s arms exports has indeed taken the world by surprise. Notably, South Korea’s arms exports increased more than five-fold between 2017 and 2022.[8] Amid the war in Ukraine, which began in 2022, South Korea’s defence exports to Poland and other European countries have increased substantially. Several Asian countries, such as India, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia, have also been buying arms from South Korea or co-producing arms in collaboration with South Korean companies. According to the Export-Import Bank of South Korea, Seoul was estimated to export weapons worth US$ 27 billion in 2026 (Table 1).

Table 1. South Korea’s Weapon Exports

(Unit: US$ 1 billion)

Source: Export-Import Bank, South Korea, cited in Lee Min-hyung, “K-Defense Exports Enter New Phase”, The Korea Times, 19 September 2026.

South Korea has also expanded research and production of newer, innovative weapon systems that apply artificial intelligence (AI), robotics and drone technology. Remarkably, the former Yoon Suk Yeol administration (2022–2025) in South Korea sought to benefit from the boom in arms exports and become the fourth-largest exporter of defence equipment, after the United States, Russia and France.[9] In this regard, South Korea is striving to build modern weapon systems that can compete with the world’s leading arms manufacturers.

President Lee Jae Myung and South Korea’s National Defence

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung belongs to the ‘progressive’ ideological camp, which calls for a fairer relationship with the United States and aims to establish South Korea’s autonomy in international affairs. Therefore, soon after coming to power in June 2025, President Lee floated the idea of regaining the wartime operational control (OPCON) of South Korean defence forces from the United States.[10] Notably, regaining wartime OPCON is a major goal for the Lee administration. While Washington has held wartime OPCON since the Korean War (1950–1953), it returned peacetime OPCON to Seoul in 1994. Reportedly, President Lee has also secured “approval” from the United States to build South Korea’s own nuclear-powered submarines.[11]

President Lee Jae Myung has also supported increasing the country’s weapons exports. Like former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s ambition, the current South Korean administration under Lee Jae Myung aims to elevate Seoul as the world’s fourth-largest “defence and aerospace power” by 2030.[12] Through this strategy, the Lee administration aspires to achieve self-reliance in arms production and reduce South Korea’s dependence on foreign countries for security. President Lee Jae Myung has also pledged to enhance the funding for research and development in arms production and build South Korea into a major defence industrial power.

The rising strategic competition and trade war between the United States and China have also been a cause of concern for Lee Jae Myung’s leadership in South Korea. As a result, President Lee has been trying to develop cordial ties with all major powers in the Northeast Asian region through a ‘pragmatic diplomacy’, aimed at safeguarding South Korea’s national interests. However, the deepening Sino-American conflict has challenged Seoul and constrained its autonomy in regional and international affairs. Rising regional confrontations are also testing President Lee’s ‘pragmatic diplomacy’.[13] Therefore, self-reliance in arms production and national defence could provide South Korea ‘strategic autonomy’ and reduce dependence on the United States. President Lee has even referred to self-reliance in national defence as “the most basic of basics” for South Korea.[14]

Further, unlike his ‘conservative’ predecessor Yoon Suk Yeol, President Lee has been eager to improve ties with the North Korean regime.[15] Since June 2025, the Lee Jae Myung administration has taken measures to normalise inter-Korean relations. But despite these rapprochement efforts with Pyongyang, Seoul under Lee has also increased military preparedness to counter North Korean belligerence. On the day President Lee Jae Myung came to power, he called the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) Chairman, Adm. Kim Myung-soo, to maintain a “watertight” military alert vis-à-vis North Korea.[16]

Why is South Korea Increasing Its Arms Production?

South Korea’s arms production has gained significant state support and attention in recent years. Although South Korea’s quest for self-reliance in arms production is several decades old, the recent push to develop more innovative weapon systems is noteworthy. There are probably four major reasons for South Korea’s urgency to achieve self-reliance in producing new arms with cutting-edge technology and increase exports of weapons from the country.

First, North Korea has been catching up very fast in the field of developing highly lethal weapon systems. The Kim dynasty regime in Pyongyang has been building more innovative arms which apply artificial intelligence (AI) and drone technology.[17] In October 2025, North Korea showcased its most advanced and sophisticated weapons during the military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the Workers’ Party of (North) Korea.[18] During this event, the powerful nuclear strategic asset of North Korea, the Hwasongpho-20 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which is believed to be capable of reaching the mainland United States, was also unveiled by the North Korean regime. The forging of the Russia–North Korea ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’ in June 2024 has also increased technological cooperation between the two countries in the field of arms production. Therefore, South Korea has been making all efforts to counter the development of new military technologies by the Kim Jong-un regime in North Korea.

Second, the advent of a second Donald Trump administration in the United States has increased apprehensions within South Korea’s security establishment. Trump’s ‘transactional diplomacy’ and his administration’s unpredictability have challenged South Korea.  In May 2025, South Korean media reported that Trump planned to withdraw several thousand American troops from South Korea and relocate them to other territories in the Indo-Pacific.[19] Soon after coming to power in January 2025, Donald Trump even referred to North Korea as a “nuclear power”, which caused concerns in Seoul.[20] Therefore, the Lee Jae Myung administration’s emphasis on self-reliance in arms production is meant to prepare for South Korea’s new security challenges.

Third, South Korea is increasingly facing problems with China’s aggressive behaviour in the maritime domain.[21] Chinese activities in South Korea’s territorial waters and Beijing’s efforts to appropriate Korean historical and national symbols have triggered anti-China sentiment among the South Korean people. Evidently, anti-China protests have surged in South Korea recently.[22] In August 2025, South Korea’s Foreign Minister Cho Hyun, under the Lee Jae Myung administration, also raised concerns about China’s contempt for the rules-based order in Northeast Asia.[23] China’s close partnership with Russia and North Korea and the emerging ‘new Cold War’ in the region have pushed Seoul to reinforce its military readiness and focus on arms production in the country.

Fourth, defence exports have also emerged as an ‘engine of economic growth’ for South Korea. South Korea’s export-oriented economy has faced challenges from economic protectionism in the United States and rapid shifts in the technological paradigm. The advent of the ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution’, which has increased the use of artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and 3D printing technology, requires new technological innovations in South Korea. Similarly, nations worldwide are engaged in cut-throat competition in arms production. South Korea aspires to emerge as one of the world’s largest arms exporters and to benefit from this ‘new arms race’. Arms exports could support South Korea’s economic development strategy. In this regard, President Lee has proposed building the defence industry as a new driver of the country’s economic development.[24]

Conclusion

The exponential increase in South Korea’s defence exports is truly remarkable. A country which lacks most of the basic natural resources needed for industrial development has transformed itself into an industrial powerhouse. This ‘Miracle on the Han River’ resulted from a well-crafted strategy by the South Korean government. The South Korean state played a leading role in guiding the country’s industrial transformation and defence industrialisation. The focus on heavy and chemical industrialisation in the 1970s aimed to build an indigenous defence industry in South Korea, which also helped develop civilian industries in automobiles, shipbuilding, telecommunications and electronics. As a result, South Korea emerged as a leading exporting nation.

The legacy of the state support for arms production has continued under the Lee Jae Myung administration in South Korea. President Lee has strongly supported expanding arms production and transforming South Korea into a global powerhouse in defence equipment manufacturing. South Korea-made arms are finding markets worldwide because of their competitive price, reliable quality and fast delivery. Although the defence industry has emerged as a driver of economic growth for South Korea’s export-oriented economy, geopolitical factors have also pushed the Lee Jae Myung administration to increase arms production and exports. The deepening Russia–North Korea military alliance, the unpredictability of the Donald Trump administration, and China’s aggressive military expansion are among the reasons Seoul has focused on the defence industry and sought self-reliance in arms production.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the Government of India.

[1] Wooyeal Paik, “South Korea’s Emergence as a Defense Industrial Powerhouse”, Asie.Visions, Ifri, No. 139, February 2024.

[2] Sangmi Cha and Soo-Hyang Choi, “South Korea is Making Weapons Faster and Cheaper Than the US”, Bloomberg, 6 June 2024.

[3] Sarah Kim, “Korea’s Latest Weapons Revealed on Armed Forces Day—In Pictures”, Korea JoongAng Daily, 2 October 2024.

[4] Peter Banseok Kwon, “Building Bombs, Building a Nation: The State, Chaebŏl, and the Militarized Industrialization of South Korea, 1973–1979”, The Journal of Asian Studies, Vol. 79, No. 1, February 2020, pp. 51–75.

[5] Son Ji-hyoung, “Lee Vows Aggressive R&D Push For Defense Exports, Military Self-Reliance”, The Korea Herald, 20 October 2025.

[6] Chung-in Moon and Sangkeun Lee, “Military Spending and the Arms Race on the Korean Peninsula”, Asian Perspective, Vol. 33, No. 4, 2009, pp. 69–99.

[7] Peter Banseok Kwon, “Building Bombs, Building a Nation: The State, Chaebŏl, and the Militarized Industrialization of South Korea, 1973–1979”, no. 4.

[8] Defense Acquisition Program Administration, South Korea, cited in Michael Lee, “Korea Rising as a Defense   Supplier amid Global Tensions”, Korea JoongAng Daily, 1 May 2023.

[9] “South Korea’s Yoon Eyes Arms Exports As ‘Future Growth Engine’”, Al Jazeera, 24 November 2022.

[10]  Lee Hyo-jin, “Korea Weighs Reclaiming Wartime Military Control from US”, The Korea Times, 11 July 2025.

[11]  Lee Yu-Jung and Chung Yeong-Gyo, “Nuclear Submarines Potential Game-Changer for South Korea”, Korea JoongAng Daily, 30 October 2025.

[12] Anna J. Park, “Lee Vows ‘Bold Investments’ to Elevate Korea to Top-Tier Defense Power”, The Korea Times, 20 October 2025.

[13] Anna J. Park, “Lee’s ‘Pragmatic Diplomacy’ Faces Major Test at Gyeongju APEC Summit”, The Korea Times, 22 October 2025.

[14] Yonhap, “Lee Calls Achieving Self-Reliant Defense ‘Most Basic of Basics’ Over New US Defense Strategy”, The Korea Times, 25 January 2026,

[15] Seo Ji-Eun, “President Yoon Was Harsh On North Korea. President Lee Wants To Do Things Differently”, Korea JoongAng Daily, 18 June 2025.

[16]  Yonhap, “Lee Calls for ‘Watertight’ Military Readiness in Phone Talks with JCS Chairman”, The Korea Times, 4 June 2025.

[17] Seo Ji-Eun, “Not Just Nukes: North Korea Weaponizes AI, Drones in High-Tech Arms Race”, Korea JoongAng Daily, 21 October 2025.

[18] “Military Parade Marks 80th Founding Anniversary of WPK”, KCNA, 11 October 2025.

[19] Yonhap, “US Considers Withdrawing Thousands of Troops From S. Korea: Report”, The Korea Times, 23 May 2025.

[20] Lee Hyo-jin, “Trump’s ‘Nuclear Power’ Reference to Pyongyang Alarms Seoul”, The Korea Times, 21 January 2025.

[21] Seo Ji-Eun and Yonhap, “Chinese Embassy Defends Steel Structures’ Installation in Yellow Sea”, Korea JoongAng Daily, 26 March 2025.

[22] Lee Hae-rin, “Anti-China Rallies Increase in Korea amid Visa-Free Tourism Policy”, The Korea Times, 1 October 2025.

[23] Son Ji-hyoung, “S. Korean Presidential Office Downplays Foreign Minister’s China Remarks”, The Korea Herald, 5 August 2025.

[24] Kim Eun-jung, “Lee Vows to Foster Defense Industry as New Growth Driver”, Yonhap News Agency, 8 July 2025.