Jordan’s Tightrope Walk: Strategy and Survival in the Israel-Palestine Conflict

Despite its limited resources and modest military capabilities, Jordan has long exercised outsized influence in West Asia through its central role in the Israel-Palestine conflict and its credibility as a security partner of the United States. The kingdom's strategic interests are deeply intertwined with developments in the West Bank and Gaza due to its geography, demographic sensitivities, and custodianship over Islamic holy sites in Jerusalem. The Israel–Hamas war has intensified Amman's anxieties over potential displacement scenario and unilateral Israeli expansionist ambitions. This paper examines the drivers of Jordan's foreign policy, its historical approach to the Palestinian question, its evolving engagement with Israel, and the kingdom's diplomatic and security posture during the said war and potential post-war dynamics. Read More

Taliban’s “Contact Commission”: Three Years Later

Looking beyond high optics associated with the return (often the deportation) of members of the former Afghan Republic to the country, the Contact Commission set up by the Taliban regime in 2022 comes across as a strategic move to present itself as a conciliatory and legitimate state entity on one hand and undercut the support base of the fragmented exiled political opposition on the other. This is best manifest in the fact that the Taliban has opened a pathway for exiled political opposition and former civil and military personnel to return to the country but without yielding any political space or making any provision to integrate the returnees into its governing structures. The commission’s efforts are stymied by violations of the ‘general amnesty’ announced for members of the former regime, lack of employment avenues for the educated non-Taliban workforce, and the ban on higher education for girls and work opportunities for women. In such a scenario, the commission cannot bridge the divide between the regime and the exiled or returnee Afghans, unless the regime itself acts as a bridge connecting diverse ethnicities and identities that make up the Afghan Nation. Read More