Monograph - MP-IDSA

India’s ‘Pacific Islands’ Outreach: Understanding Regional Narratives, Geopolitics & Opportunities

The narrative of ‘the return of geopolitics’ to the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) is gaining traction in the larger discourse of the Indo-Pacific, primarily driven by the anxiety over People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) expanding engagement in the region. The exacerbation of international tensions, amplified by the Sino-US rivalry, comes even as the Islands navigate intra-regional frictions, challenges of economic development, illegal fishing, climate change and issues related to self-determination and decolonisation. India’s renewed outreach to the PICs under PM Modi’s leadership has found wide appeal, as was visible during his visits to the Pacific Islands and his interaction with leaders via the Forum for India-Pacific Islands Cooperation (FIPIC). Given this context, this monograph will attempt to briefly introduce the relevance of this contested geography to regional and extra-regional players. It will unpack the internal dynamics of regional tensions and examine the agency of PICs. It will expand on how China’s actions are redefining geopolitics in the region and discuss these contested narratives. Within this backdrop, it will also explore how Indian engagement has been perceived in the region and conclude with prescriptive options of steps India could take, including with regional partners, to anchor meaningful presence in the PICs region.

Evolving Security Architectures in Southeast Asia: A Study of Regional Security Multilateralism

The central theme of this monograph is to analyse the emerging security architecture in Southeast Asia. The evolving internal and external developments which confronts Southeast Asian countries has led to the emergence of a complex regional security environment. The ongoing United States-China rivalry in which Southeast Asia finds itself at the centre, is a key factor in shaping the regional security outlook. The study examines the role of ASEAN in shaping the security architecture centered on its norms and upholding multilateralism. However, the ineffectiveness of ASEAN as an informal security arrangement raises concern over the future of security multilateralism. Further, at a time of weakening multilateralism, along with the emergence of new and renewed security alignments being witnessed in the Indo-Pacific; the ASEAN's centrality comes under increasing pressure. Therefore, an examination into the role of major powers and the new bilateral and mini-lateral security arrangements, provides the future roadmap for security multilateralism in Southeast Asia.

Assertion of Religion in Sri Lankan Politics: A Critical Analysis

The monograph presents an in-depth analysis of the role of religion in Sri Lankan politics and its impact on the country in the social, political, security, and foreign policy domains. It focuses on the politics of the Sinhala-Buddhist and Muslim communities, as they have explicitly utilised their religions for political purposes in the post-independence period. To comprehend the role of religion in contemporary Sri Lankan politics, the monograph traces the evolution of the country's social and political structures, as well as the relationship between the state and religion, under various political systems and administrations from the ancient period till date. The historical and current political developments are analysed by applying the integrative theory in the context of religion and politics in Sri Lanka.

China’s Role in Afghanistan and Pakistan Post US-Nato Withdrawal: Implications for India

The monograph examines the inception of China's geostrategic/geo-economic pivot towards Pakistan— and more recently, Afghanistan— before charting the trajectory of its expanding role in the Af-Pak region. It assesses the viability of the evolving geopolitical triangle comprising China, Pakistan and Afghanistan, before evaluating possible Chinese strategy behind deepening engagement with a region marked by chronic volatility. The study, in particular, assesses China's strategic interests in Afghanistan and how Pakistan remains central to its Afghan policy. The monograph also seeks to explore whether the return of the Taliban and China's rising profile in the region would signal the evolution and fruition of China's Af-Pak strategy. By examining both convergences and divergences in Afghanistan and Pakistan's bilateral ties with China, the study investigates the contours of a potentially hyphenated approach. It concludes by outlining prominent security paradigms in the region and the inherent dilemmas that shape China's strategic calculus in this complex geopolitical theatre.

म्यांमार: तलाश एक समावेशी राजनीतिक तंत्र की

Iran’s ‘Pivot’ to Asia: Quest for Survival and Regional Cooperation

This monograph attempts to analyse Iran's Look East strategy, which became the macro framework of Iran's foreign policy after the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018 and more effectively under President Ebrahim Raisi. It delves into various geopolitical and economic drivers of Iran's pursuit of long-term partnerships with China and Russia. It seeks to understand how Iran's regional policy is responding to the new geopolitical dynamics in Central Asia and the Caucasus following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Azerbaijan's victory in the second Nagorno-Karabakh war. It also examines the problems and prospects in India-Iran ties, especially in the context of Iran's Look East strategy.

Taliban’s Amnesty: An Assessment

The Taliban's unwritten and ambiguous 'general amnesty' neither implies Tpolitical integration nor national reconciliation. It's about total control, and about who gets to stay and who gets to come back, and on what terms. In the absence of any credible political opposition, and with more and more Afghans being deported or forced to return to the country, including the exiled members of the previous regime, the Taliban's Contact Commission will remain in business in the foreseeable future. However, reports of violation of 'general amnesty' by the Taliban members, particularly in the case of mid and low ranking former military personnel, have exposed the limitations to the implementation of the amnesty decree across the country.

The Unending Conflict: Dilemmas of Dealing with Sectarianism in Kurram

The monograph focusses on the unending sectarian conflict in the Kurram district in Pakistan. It traces the history of Kurram, the origin Tof the Turi Shias and chronicles major incidents of sectarian conflicts in the district. It argues that sectarian violence in Kurram, Pakistan, between Shias and Sunnis is deeply rooted in historical animosities, exacerbated by the state’s Sunni-Islamist orientation and external influences like the Afghan Jihad and Saudi-Iran rivalry.

India’s Coastal Security Construct – A Holistic Security Perspective

This monograph explores the Coastal Security Construct in a holistic manner. India's economic growth and sustainable development is intrinsically linked to seas and oceans around it. It's leaning on Blue Economy is thus natural. In the maritime domain, development, governance and security are mutually inclusive. Thus, India's maritime surveillance and governance capabilities will decide its future economic growth.

Evolving Military Roles in Cyberspace: A Five Nation Perspective

This monograph explores the varying approaches of the United States, China, Russia, the United Kingdom, and Israel towards military engagements in cyberspace, detailing their initial strategies, underlying expectations, and the resultant outcomes. By examining these diverse national strategies, the study provides insightful analysis into the evolving perspectives and practices regarding military involvement in cyberspace across different states.