Events

Chairperson: Brig. (Retd.) Rumel Dahiya, SM
Discussants: J N Roy and W Chandrakanth
Internal Discussants: Dr. Rajiv Nayan and Dr. Nihar Nayak

According to Dr. P.V. Ramana, in order to succeed in its revolutionary agenda of the armed overthrow of the state, a Communist group requires three magic weapons – strong Party, strong Army and United Front. The last of these involves the ‘mobilization of people’. His paper focuses exclusively on Maoist Mass Organisations or Front Organisations.

The author explains that the Maoists have several mass organisations, at the State level as well as at the All India level (AIMOS), which are primarily of three types: 1) Underground Revolutionary: these are built clandestinely and conduct secret propaganda. 2) Open or semi-open Revolutionary: these directly serve the people’s war as long as there is room for undertaking open revolutionary activities. 3) Mass organisations not directly linked to CPI (Maoist): these are broad-based, not directly linked to the Maoist parent outfit, and function under cover with a limited set of activities as its mandate. This type can be further subdivided into three broad categories: (a) fractional work, (b) party-formed cover organisations, and (c) legal democratic organisations.

Dr. Ramana elucidates the utilities of Mass Organisations for the Maoists as: One, they spread the ideology of the outfit among the people in the areas of their operation. Two, they serve as a recruiting base, or catchments, for the underground. Three, to watch for the future leadership of the outfit emerge from among the ranks of the Mass Organisations. He quotes the example of Mallojula Koteswara Rao alias Kishenji and Naveen who were leaders of the Radical Students Union in Andhra Pradesh and Delhi, respectively. Four, members of Mass Organisations are drafted into the ‘people’s militia’, or the Base Force. Five, Mass Organisations would enable the Maoists to be ‘heard and seen.’

Dr. Ramana asserts that the availability of a large number of people as members of mass organisations has enabled the Maoists to create vast numbers of cadres for the people’s militia in the rural and tribal hinterland, who have participated in all the large-scale synchronized attacks on multiple targets in different parts of the country in Bihar, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and West Bengal, beginning with the Koraput raid of February 6, 2004, and acquired a new proficiency and vigour in the Jehanabad Jail Break in Bihar on November 13, 2005.

Dr. Ramana points out that the entire work of the Mass Organisations is guided and supervised by a committee appointed by the apex and all-powerful Central Committee. This committee is known as the Sub Committee on Mass Organisations (SUCOMO), formed for the first time in 2001. The purpose of SUCOMO is to provide direction on the issues that need to be taken-up by the Mass Organisations and to provide coordination at the all-India level for State-level Mass Organisations and All India Mass Organisations (AIMOs).

In the next section of the paper, the author cites two cases from Andhra Pradesh where Mass Organisations got defunct after being quite active and popular for a while.

Highlighting the case of Singareni Karmika Samkhya (SIKASA), the author mentions that SIKASA took up various issues that mattered for the people dependent upon the Singareni Collieries. These included mine safety, better working conditions and wages, exploitation of miners, rampant alcoholism, goondaism and exploitation by contractors. To implement its directives, the tool it used was “terror”. However, towards the latter half of the 1990s, the downfall of SIKASA commenced. The reasons included: the collieries accumulated losses of Rs. 1,250 crore and was referred to the BFIR; severe police crackdown commenced; and liberalisation policies came into force.

Highlighting the case of the Andhra Pradesh Radical Students Union (APRSU), Dr. Ramana mentions that in the initial years APRSU went through a prolonged debate on whether its mandate should be to limit itself to addressing students’ problems alone, or to make it a part of the New Democratic Revolution and help build and lead the agrarian revolution in the villages. The latter view prevailed. The various issues taken-up by APRSU during the period of its active functioning, either when it was underground or worked openly, included: opposing detention system in schools, better facilities in welfare hostels, scholarships for students, reservation for the underprivileged in educational institutions, Karamchedu dalit massacre by upper caste landlords, opposing New Education Policy, protest marches against alleged fake encounters, etc.

Nevertheless, towards the beginning of the mid-1990s, the downfall of APRSU commenced and now it is defunct. While the leadership loss contributed significantly to the slow demise of the APRSU, new ‘economic opportunities’ which threw open several avenues for the angry youth also played an important role in failing to attract students towards the Maoist-fold.

According to Dr. Ramana, among all the states in the country, Mass organisations are most active and vibrant in the Bastar region in the central Indian state of Chhattisgarh. In the Dandakaranya region the Mass Organisations in operation are:

DAKMS: The organisation started its activities in 1981 in Khammam district of Andhra Pradesh. A person who is at least 16 years of age and is a resident of the village is eligible to become a member of the particular village unit of DAKMS. However, landlords, lumpen elements and those suspected to be linked to the police are not granted membership of the unit. The objective in forming DAKMS was to protect the self-respect of the tribal (adivasi) populace, declare Dandakaranya as a ‘liberated area’, prevent religious conversions, fight for the rights of the tribal populace over the land, fight against privatization and the entry of multi-national corporations (MNCs), to fight for better wages and working conditions of the labour involved in collecting kendu leaf (similar to beedi leaf), bamboo fellers, and so on.

KAMS: It is one of the most active mass organisations that operates in the Dandakaranya region and fights for the rights of tribal women. All women who are above 16 years of age are eligible to become members of the village unit in which they are resident.

AKCS: It was founded in 1997 to fight for the rights of students and for solving their problems. Some of the issues taken-up by the organisation included effective implementation of mid-day meal scheme in schools, provide text books free of cost, grant scholarships, etc.

KABS: It was founded in 1998, in the Konta and Basuguda areas of Dantewada district (South Bastar). All children between the ages of five and 15 are eligible to become members of KABS. The underlying motive behind forming this organisation seems to be ‘to catch them young’.

Dr. Ramana concluded his presentation by assessing that on a broader national scale, the Maoists do not have a ‘mass base’, contrary to the impression that is created, which is essentially because recurring and frequent acts of ‘violence’ widely dispersed in different parts of the country attract publicity and visibility. The author, nevertheless, warns that it should be noted with concern that even the miniscule support they had built over the years has sufficient ‘nuisance value’ for the Indian state.

Discussion

1. The Maoist movement has tapped into the deep and dangerous undercurrent of alienation, misery and rage amongst millions of people who have been failed by the economic, social and political system.
2. In 2006, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh referred to the Naxalites as the single biggest internal security challenge ever faced by our country. But nothing has been done so far to seriously address the concern.
3. The author’s end assessment that “on a broader national scale the Maoists do not have a mass base” needs further discussion. India now has 223 districts across 20 states that are affected by Maoist activities. This shows that the Maoist potential to penetrate other states, which had hitherto remained outside their grasp, has evolved enormously.
4. Bad governance, lethargic and corrupt administration, inefficient police, and illiteracy among rural populations will ensure that the Maoists keep receiving fresh recruits.
5. Inconsistent public postures of the top central and state leadership shows that even a basic consensual assessment of the Maoist threat is lacking. More detailed assessment at the end together with recommendations, including alternative courses of action, ought to be added to the paper.
6. It is time to recognise that the Maoist movement has grown in the tribal areas because there is a new consciousness among the tribal people about their rights over their resources.
7. Study of Maoists’ linkages to unorganized weapon markets of India, China, Myanmar and Bangladesh would be useful.
8. The decline of labour union power in the country has shored up Maoist support.
9. Maoists can be countered only through a coherent and well thought out strategy.

Report prepared by Dr. Imtiyaz Majid, Research Assistant at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi

Chairperson: Ashok Mehata
Discussants: Arun Sahgal and N.P. Singh
Internal Discussants: Rumel Dahiya and S. Kalayanaraman

Maj. Gen. (Retd.) Ashok Mehta stated at the very outset that India fought its last conventional war in 1971. Since then, it has been fighting only sub-conventional wars. However, the real spurt to sub-conventional wars that India has been fighting came in the 1980s with the surge of Sikh and then Kashmiri militancy. As for the term ‘sub-conventional war’, he said that it simply denotes to anti-terrorist or counter-insurgency operations. He argued that India would continue to fight this mode of warfare for one or two generations more at least. Therefore, he argued, the study done by Col. K. C. Dixit was very relevant from the academic as well as policy points of view.

Colonel K.C. Dixit, a Research Fellow at IDSA, examined in his paper the issue of how to keep soldiers’ (in Army tradition the word ‘soldier’ is generically applied to officers, junior commissioned officers and other ranks) motivation high in the difficult conditions of sub-conventional war. What makes his paper really noteworthy is that it is based on an extensive field trip and personal interviews conducted by him. He went to Jammu and Kashmir in December 2009 and visited army units where he interviewed 880 soldiers. The interviewees were classified in three categories: officers, junior commissioned officers and other ranks. He asked them 36 questions, which were wide ranging and covered the entire gamut of a soldier’s life. On the basis of responses given to his questions, he arrived at certain conclusions.

He began by putting forward a simplified version of the definitional aspects of motivation. Then, he dwelt into the peculiarities of the operational environment in sub-conventional warfare, juxtaposing it with conventional warfare. He then elaborated upon the factors affecting motivation in sub-conventional warfare. He recounted the absence of cooperation from the side of civil authority, media propaganda, lack of intelligence resulting in difficulty in identifying militants, pressing demand for quick reaction, problem with soldiers adapting to a new environment, problem of command and control, insistence on use of minimum force, unsatisfactory living conditions, pressures from human rights organizations, as prominent factors affecting motivation of soldiers in sub-conventional warfare.

After analyzing factors affecting motivation, he brought forward his conclusion that the conditions necessary to keep Indian soldiers motivated are far from being satisfactory. Here, he made some recommendations to improve the level of motivation among soldiers. His recommendations covered areas like training, organizational set up, judicious involvement and participation on the part of soldiers at various levels in decision-making, unit cohesion, making tasks challenging, exciting and meaningful, media management, the handling of junior leadership, delegation of powers, and many others. He finished his presentation by making a passionate plea for improving and sustaining motivation of soldiers in sub-conventional warfare.

The discussants were unanimous on the fact that the study done by Colonel K.C. Dixit was of immense significance and would surely help improve the working conditions of the Indian Armed Forces and increase their efficiency. However, they and other scholars present during the session made some valid methodological points, which needed to be addressed. Col. K.C. Dixit accepted these points and assured that he would accommodate them in the subsequent and final draft.

Report prepared by Dr. Prashant Kumar Singh.

Discussion on the book In Search of Congruence: Perspectives on India-US Relations under the Obama Administration and current state of India-US relations

Climate change is on top of the international and national political and strategic agendas. Post Copenhagen climate conference of December 2009, this was the first event organised by the non-traditional security cluster at IDSA.
Dr. Michael Köberlein, Director, Heinrich Böll Foundation (HBF), India gave a 30-minute presentation on "Future of International Climate Regime" on 15th March. The session was chaired by Dr. Arvind Gupta, Lal Bahadur Shastri Chair at IDSA.

The speaker covered the following topics:
a) Copenhagen Accord: A critical assessment
b) The challenges and processes for 2010 climate negotiations
c) The role and tasks of international institutions (IPCC, UNFCCC, G-20, MEF, IMF)
d) The role and responsibility of the EU
e) The approach of the German government
f) The future: Ways out of the climate trap

Dr. Köberlein gave an overview of the occurrences in Copenhagen and the outcomes of COP 15. On the negative side, he assessed that the Copenhagen meeting was poorly organised by host Denmark, while the UN was found wanting and incapable of moderating the event towards an effective and fair deal. AOSIS states and LDCs were ignored whereas China and the United States played a power game which finally led to the meagre output. The Group of 77 proved to be disunited and non-adept in addressing its negotiation position. Copenhagen did not deliver a legally binding treaty which addresses the comprehensiveness of the climate threat but only a political declaration that has little value. Equity was never an issue in Copenhagen and adaptation was totally neglected. No funding mechanism was introduced and no funds assured so that it is unclear how mitigation and adaptation measures are to be financed. On the positive side, a new grouping BASIC was established which also included the United States. Moreover the 2 degree Celsius benchmark for dangerous climate change was universally accepted, and the ongoing validity of the Bali Action Plan to be finalised in Mexico at COP 16 gives hope for more target-oriented action in 2010.

Dr. Köberlein claimed that climate science is far ahead of climate politics. There is scope and urgency for IPCC to improve and re-establish the faith of people in its work after the inapposite debate on the errors in the glacier study. For achieving this, IPCC requires a better communication strategy, an independent body that monitors and creates an outside expertise for peer-review. The best institution to host climate negotiations is the UN and UNFCC. But it has to define anew its role and strategy. A new president after the resignation of Yvo de Boer as well as a new approach in consensus finding might be the answer. G 20 was used in the last year as an alternate forum for climate negotiations and certain issues were hijacked. Yet, as LCDs and AOSIS states are excluded from G-20, this platform will never be able to address the principles of the climate conventions. Major Economies Forum as well was introduced by the United States to undermine the UN process. But since it does not have any universal support or legitimacy it is only a competing platform to the UN process and hence shall be elided. The EU was sidelined at Copenhagen and there is lack of leadership as compared to earlier COPs. This was mainly due to the global economic and financial crisis and the disparities amongst the 27 member states. Yet, its present approach to reduce 20 per cent of its emission till 2020, increase energy efficiency by 20 per cent and have 20 per cent of renewable energy in its energy mix is still the most ambitious approach to combat climate change. As far as Germany is concerned, it leads in climate policy. German Chancellor Merkel played a leading role when introducing climate change in the G-8 process in Heiligendamm in 2008. It leads in the promotion of renewables and also has the highest ambitions in terms of CO2 emission reduction till 2020 (40 per cent as compared to 1990). Germany can be seen as the initiator of a green market economy which has created more than 250,000 jobs in green technologies. It is also the leader in creating ideas in order to transform its economy to a low carbon economy (Green Deal, Feed-in Tariffs, renewable energy technologies).

The challenges are in reaching consensus in international politics. Hence the first preparatory meeting at Bonn in April 2010 would play a crucial role to overcome the climate impasse. There is a need to build international institutions for finance transfer, a so-called Reserve Bank of Climate Change which gives stimuli and monitors the flow of funds. There is also need for a compliance mechanism which deals with countries violating the climate treaty. In equity matters the speaker felt that there was a need to redefine the principle of equity and spell out the meaning of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’.

It will be necessary to regroup the Annex 1 and Non-Annex 1 countries since there are vast differences between countries such as Bangladesh and South Korea for example which are non-comparable. At the national level also equity needs to be addressed and a concept of vulnerability developed (vulnerability index).

The speaker also introduced three equity approaches by Think Tanks. He handed out a report by the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) titled “Solving the Dilemma: The budget approach” which was released by the German government prior to the Copenhagen meeting, the ‘Greenhouse Development Rights Approach’ which was published by HBF (Dr. Köberlein made the HBS paper of February 2010 on “Failure or Opportunity? A Regional Analysis of Copenhagen Climate Conference and How its Outcome Has Been Perceived” available). Besides, he distributed a report by HBF, India: Emerging Leadership on Climate Change written by Malini Mehra in December 2008.

During the discussion it was brought out that equity and per capita emission rights will remain key issues. India’s contribution is the least and only flows are being highlighted and not the stocks. Impact of mitigation actions by India will be minimal as it is still low in per capita terms. Indian emissions are three times less compared to China’s, which is nearly at par with France on per capita terms. Ethics of over-consumption was also highlighted with the hope that the USA, the biggest polluter, will also be willing to be part of a deal. Issue that might create problems in future will be a compliance mechanism and a universally accepted definition of equity in the climate regime.

Report prepared by P.K. Gautam