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Report on Visit of the Delegation from the National Defence College, UAE | December 11, 2023 | Other |
A delegation from the National Defence College, UAE, led by Brig. Gen. Staff Pilot Khalifa Butti Thani Tarish Al Shamsi visited the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) on 11 December 2023. Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy made a presentation on the structure and role of the Institute and India-West Asia relations. Established in 1965, MP-IDSA is an autonomous body funded by the Ministry of Defence (MoD), Government of India. The scope of research activities undertaken by MP-IDSA broadly includes issues relating to defence, internal and external security and international relations. Its governance is overseen by the Executive Council, traditionally presided over by the Defence Minister of India. Amb. Chinoy highlighted the diverse spectrum of research initiatives undertaken by the Institute's various Centres, shedding light on key issues and areas of research by the scholars. Emphasising MP-IDSA's contributions, he mentioned significant publications, specifying two esteemed peer-reviewed research journals: Strategic Analysis and Journal of Defence Studies. Amb. Chinoy mentioned the training mechanism of the Institute in terms of capacity building through short modules for various stakeholders, including Defence Forces (NDC, DSSC, CDM), OFB, BSF Academy, ITBP, Customs, SSB, NTRO, IFS, State Governments and Young Parliamentarians. MP-IDSA has also served as a knowledge partner of MoD for the India-Africa Defence Dialogue, Aero-India and Defence Expo in Lucknow-2020 and Gandhinagar-2022. The Institute has also undertaken and completed study reports/projects on military equipment, cyber security, border infrastructure, defence cooperation, terror financing, border management and maritime security. Amb. Sujan Chinoy provided a brief overview of India-West Asia relations, highlighting the historical and civilizational links and India’s position as a stakeholder in peace and security in the region. He emphasised that since 2014, high-level engagements have increased remarkably because of the leadership of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Modi adopted the “Think West” policy to deepen engagement in West Asia in economic, defence, security and strategic cooperation. With regard to energy cooperation, Amb. Chinoy stated that the Gulf region is the most reliable energy source, supplying 60 per cent of India’s total oil imports. On a positive note, India is deepening engagement with Gulf countries in the green and renewable energy sector as there is a convergence of interests between India and Gulf nations to reduce carbon emissions. He also highlighted India’s support to West Asian countries during the COVID-19 pandemic by providing Hydroxychloroquine tablets and medical equipment to the West Asian countries. India sent a team of 88 medical and healthcare professionals to the UAE. Amb. Chinoy said that under Prime Minister Modi, defence and security cooperation between India and West Asia has deepened substantially. The number of joint exercises between the Army, Navy and Air Force of India and the West Asian countries has increased. India has invited Gulf countries to invest in ‘Make in India’ defence initiatives. Amb. Chinoy mentioned that ISIS networks in India’s neighbourhood are a matter of concern for India. Hence, India is enhancing cooperation in exchanging information relating to terrorist activities and other security challenges to combat threats. He also underlined piracy as a common threat to India and West Asia. For both, maintaining the safety of Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) is extremely important. Since 2008, India has consistently deployed a naval ship in the Gulf of Aden. The importance of the Joint Defence Cooperation Committee, Ex Desert Flag, Zayed Talwar, IDEX, NAVDEX and space cooperation were also highlighted. India-UAE partnership is multifaceted, and high-level exchange of visits signify the importance of the relationship. The UAE President visited India for the G20 Leadership Summit, and PM Modi visited UAE in December 2023 to participate in the COP28 Summit. The UAE is considered India’s special friend and was invited as a Guest Country for India’s G20 Summit. Both countries have convergence of interest on issues such as trade, connectivity, climate, green energy, terrorism and piracy. The UAE is India’s third largest trading partner, with bilateral trade of around US$ 85 billion. Moreover, both countries signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in February 2022, and bilateral trade has increased by 15 per cent since the CEPA came into force in May 2022. The UAE is the seventh largest investor in India in terms of FDI and the second largest source of LNG and LPG. Remarkably, UAE is India’s second largest export destination, with US$ 31.61 billion in 2022-23. Amb. Chinoy also highlighted India’s connection with the UAE through 3.5 million Indian diaspora working and living in the UAE, contributing to the country’s progress. Notably, in 2022, India received US$ 20 billion from the UAE through diasporic remittances. The UAE is the first international partner to invest in India’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves. Besides, Indian companies have steadily increased their participation in the UAE’s energy sector. Under the mandate of I2U2, the UAE has pledged to invest US$ 2 billion to establish Integrated Food Parks in India. In his remarks, the head of the NDC UAE delegation Brig. Gen. Staff Pilot Khalifa AlShamsi stated that the NDC UAE broadly covers aspects relating to international relations including military, economic, diplomatic and security as primary domains. He specified that NDC UAE, through its Strategic Security Studies Programme, prepares future military and civilian leaders of the highest calibre. He expressed hope for the future of the India-UAE Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and acknowledged India's support to the UAE during the COVID-19 pandemic. Q&A SessionQuestions relating to MP-IDSA’s research on evolving issues, security challenges for India, I2U2, India’s leadership in Global South and Research and Development (R&D) were asked by the members of the NDC UAE delegation. Amb. Chinoy stated that MP-IDSA engages experts/officials from both defence and civilian categories who are experts in different areas. Scholars of MP-IDSA regularly publish books, Op-eds, commentaries, and research papers in journals. Scholars also visit various places across the country and abroad to present papers at conferences. On the issue of security challenges for India, Amb. Chinoy spoke about threats emerging from China, Pakistan and disruptions in maritime security. He described challenges relating to maintaining rapid and inclusive economic growth with peace and tranquillity on the periphery. On the issue of India’s leadership potential in Global South, Amb. Chinoy specified that India has already showcased its capacity to be a leader of the Global South by successfully holding the G20 Presidency. The successful conduct of the Voice of Global South Summit at the beginning and end of India’s G20 Presidency has showcased India’s priorities. India’s proposal to include the African Union in the G20 was highly appreciated and was approved by all members, showing the potential of Indian leadership of the Global South. Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation Programme (ITEC) has been widely appreciated in the Global South as a remarkable capacity-building initiative. With regard to R&D, Amb. Chinoy mentioned that the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), under the Ministry of Defence, Government of India, is committed to empowering the nation with advanced defence technologies. With a mission to attain self-reliance in crucial defence technologies and systems, DRDO aims to provide the armed forces with cutting-edge weaponry and equipment aligned with the specific needs of the three Services. Scholars from MP-IDSA emphasised enhancing collaborative efforts between maritime agencies of India and UAE, considering the adverse impact of climate change is on the rise. Suggestions were also given to deepen the joint counter-terrorism efforts by both countries. (Report prepared by Mr. Abhishek Yadav, Research Analyst, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA) |
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Monday Morning Meeting on “16th BRICS Summit: Paving the Way for a Multipolar World Order?” | November 04, 2024 | Monday Morning Meeting |
Dr. Rajeesh Kumar, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “16th BRICS Summit: Paving the Way for a Multipolar World Order?” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 04 November 2024. The session was chaired by Dr. Prashant K. Singh, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. The scholars of the Institute attended the meeting. Executive SummaryThe session provided a comprehensive analysis of the role of BRICS, a non-western economic group and of the BRICS Summit held in Kazan on 22-23 October 2024. This BRICS Summit was the first summit after its expansion which marked its relevance in the current multipolar world. BRICS as an institution is attractive to many nations due to its financial alternative mechanisms that reduce dependency on the dollar. Despite its limited capacity and capabilities, it promotes economic cooperation, trade and investments among its members and provides a platform to interact with countries like Russia and China. Detailed ReportIn his opening remarks, Dr. Prashant K. Singh discussed the 16th BRICS summit, its significance, and the Kazan Declaration. The declaration acknowledged the BRICS members and partners' efforts to create alternative financial mechanisms. It also emphasised the unacceptable use of unilateral Western sanctions for geopolitical objectives. The declaration called for comprehensive reform of the United Nations and its organs, particularly the Security Council. The summit also successfully issued a consensus declaration on the security situation in Gaza, Lebanon, and Ukraine. Dr. Singh enquired about alternative financial mechanisms and how far BRICS has evolved as a counterbalance to systems that are dominated by the West. In his opening remarks, Dr. Rajeesh Kumar contrasted the headlines of prominent newspapers over the years with those of today. To understand the relevance of BRICS currently, he noted a change in the discourse around the group and thereby the possibility of it offering an alternative to the current world order. He then analysed the symbolic and the actual significance of the summit. Symbolically it was the first meeting after the expansion and Putin successfully hosted the summit despite sanctions against Russia. However, the actual significance of the summit was more nuanced as it issued thirty-one documents including the Kazan Declaration. Dr. Kumar made a comparison of the themes and subthemes of the 2024 summit and the 2023 summit. Compared to the 2023 summit, according to the Kazan Declaration, international financial architectures, including the International Monetary Fund need to be reformed. By preserving the current structures, they hope to democratise them and make them more inclusive of the demands of the countries of the Global South. Other aspects mentioned in the declaration include the BRICS Grain Exchange, BRICS Interbank Cooperation Mechanism, BRICS (Re)Insurance Company, BRICS Integrated Early Warning System for preventing mass infectious diseases risks, and BRICS Partner Country category. Dr. Kumar discussed India's participation in the Kazan Summit and Prime Minister Modi’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit. PM Modi emphasised the need for a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict and emphasised the importance of diplomacy in mitigating the crises in West Asia. He advocated for collaborative efforts to tackle climate change and emphasised the need for comprehensive international regulations related to cybersecurity and artificial intelligence. He also welcomed the proposal for a new BRICS investment platform to provide financial resources for countries in the Global South. The Modi-Xi meeting agreed to use dialogues among Foreign Ministers and officials to stabilise and rebuild bilateral relations. Both leaders emphasised enhancing strategic communication and exploring cooperation for shared development goals. Dr. Kumar discussed the concept of BRICS and the multipolar world order, focusing on the BRICS+ as a political alternative. He argued that BRICS+ aims to reform global systems, advocating for a multipolar world with a stronger Global South perspective. He also highlighted BRICS as an economic alternative, driving global economic growth and demonstrating superiority over G7 economies in certain aspects. Further, he highlighted the importance of economic independence, building a resilient financial ecosystem, and de-dollarization. Dr. Kumar addressed common questions about BRICS, including its potential solutions to global problems, anti-Western attitudes, potential use by China against India, economic integration, dispute resolution, and its potential to be an analogue to the G7. He also discussed BRICS's potential to promote economic cooperation, trade, and investments among its member states. Despite concerns, Dr. Kumar concluded that BRICS remains an attractive idea, and India's relevance to BRICS lies in its strategic autonomy, geopolitical balancing, reformed multilateralism, and leadership in terrorism and climate change policies. Despite perceived disparities, BRICS needs to be seen as an avenue for cooperation. Comments and QuestionsFollowing the presentation, the scholars inquired about the significance of the partner members and what makes BRICS attractive to other countries, such as in Southeast Asia. They also enquired about the alternative financial mechanisms in BRICS and the avenues for the BRICS currency. The discussion also touched upon India’s role and importance in BRICS and the concept of a non-Western approach as opposed to an anti-Western approach when discussing the narratives regarding BRICS. Dr. Rajeesh Kumar responded to the comments and the questions raised by MP-IDSA scholars. The report was prepared by Ms. Alvina A. Almeida, Intern, East Asia Centre, MP-IDSA. |
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The Delhi Defence Dialogue (DDD) | November 12, 2024 to November 13, 2024 | Conference |
The Delhi Defence Dialogue (DDD) is a flagship platform of the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) for addressing the multifaceted challenges of defence and security, in India. As the landscape of warfare becomes increasingly complex, the platform is designed to discuss the evolving landscape of international security and defence strategies, with a focus on India's defence. The dialogue aims to exchange views and foster collaboration among defence experts, policymakers, and military leaders. Further, as India navigates a complex geopolitical landscape, the DDD serves as a critical forum for addressing the need for a robust defence strategy that not only addresses immediate threats but also anticipates future challenges. About DDDThe Delhi Defence Dialogue (DDD), instituted by the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), is a premier platform for addressing the multifaceted challenges of defence and security, in India. The inaugural edition of DDD is scheduled on 12-13 November 2024. In an era defined by geopolitical uncertainty and rapid technological advancement, the landscape of warfare and aspects that facilitate and sustain countries at war are undergoing profound transformations. Traditional notions of war are being reshaped by emerging technologies and evolving strategic partnerships and by constantly shifting organisational dynamics within the armed forces, resulting in newer doctrines and concept of operations. The DDD is envisioned to be a platform to deliberate the complexities of modern defence landscape and intricate layers of contemporary warfare with the aim to formulate strategic approaches that address the challenges of the of security in the evolving Asian and larger global security environment. The DDD aims to delve into critical topics affecting military security, including the emerging threats, evolving character of warfare, supply chain management issues and the role of technology in modern warfare. Issues such as bilateral and multilateral security cooperation, geopolitical shifts, the impact of non-traditional security threats, among others, will find a place on this platform. By fostering an inclusive environment for policymakers, military experts, and scholars the DDD seeks to generate innovative ideas and collaborative strategies to enhance India’s defence posture. Emphasising a comprehensive approach, participants will explore how countries can navigate their defence challenges while promoting stability in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond. The DDD aspires to contribute to India’s strategic vision, emphasising a comprehensive approach and facilitating informed discussions that contribute to regional and international security. Through robust exchanges of ideas, MP-IDSA aims to forge a resilient framework for India’s defence strategy, ensuring that it is prepared to meet both current and future challenges in an interconnected world in close concert with partner nations. CONFERENCE PROGRAMMEProfiles of Participants & Abstracts
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Report of Monday Morning Meeting on “ISIS: An Enduring Threat” | October 28, 2024 | Monday Morning Meeting |
Ms. Saman Ayesha Kidwai, Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) spoke on “ISIS: An Enduring Threat” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 28 October 2024. The session was chaired by Dr. Jason Wahlang, Research Analyst, MP-IDSA. MP-IDSA scholars participated in the discussion. Executive SummaryISIS has remained an enduring security threat due to its adaptability, exploitation of regional and global instability, and media propaganda. Detailed ReportThe session commenced with opening remarks from Dr. Jason Wahlang, who provided an insightful overview of the persistent threat the Islamic State (IS) posed despite its waning influence in recent years. The Islamic State, alongside its various vilayets, continues to leverage instability in regions worldwide, exploiting global security shifts for resurgence. Dr. Wahlang highlighted the worrying escalation of IS activities in previously unaffected areas, including the attack in Azerbaijan’s Qusar district in September 2024 and the assault on a Shia Mosque in Oman. He stressed that the current complex geopolitical climate and the focus of major powers on their security imperatives, especially with the Russia-Ukraine War and the broader West Asian instability, has carved out space for a potential ISIS revival. Ms. Kidwai explained that since its physical defeat in March 2019, ISIS has effectively preserved its global threat profile through the evolution of operational tactics, sustained ideological appeal, and the exploitation of geopolitical conflicts. This adaptability, combined with sophisticated media-driven propaganda, has allowed ISIS to mobilise a diverse array of fighters, including lone wolves, enabled individuals, and trained operatives, all contributing to the perpetuation of the group's agenda. Ms. Kidwai also highlighted how high-profile international sporting events, such as the Paris Olympics and Euro Games, remain vulnerable to exploitation by ISIS, as these “soft targets” provide terrorist groups visibility and an opportunity to inflict substantial impact. Moreover, recent incidents, including the Solingen knife assault and threats against the U.S. Capitol, underscore the ongoing resilience of ISIS and its capacity to execute attacks on a global scale. These trends highlight the urgent need for a comprehensive and coordinated counterterrorism strategy to effectively address this enduring threat. Furthermore, Ms. Kidwai noted that the 2024 Global Terrorism Index (GTI) reaffirms ISIS's status as the world's deadliest terrorist organisation, attributing 470 attacks and 1,636 deaths to the group in the preceding year. Ongoing regional and international conflicts, exacerbated by socio-political disparities, provide fertile ground for ISIS's recruitment and radicalisation efforts. The group’s sustained strategy to inspire violence through multilingual propaganda has ensured that its influence extends beyond physical borders, reinforcing its long-term goals as both an ideological force and a security challenge across nations. Ms. Kidwai explained that ISIS has leveraged various networks across Africa, such as the Maktab Al-Karrar’s global financing network, which oversees regions including the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, and Somalia. This network has played a crucial role in coordinating terror financing and attacks on a global scale, notably funding the 2021 Kabul airport attack perpetrated by Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP). Furthermore, the terrorist group employs both conventional and unconventional financing methods, including hawala networks, cryptocurrency, and extortion schemes through social media platforms like Tinder, specifically targeting South African citizens. These activities have intensified in South Africa, where established economic structures, combined with corruption and complacency, have facilitated ISIS’s financing and logistical operations. According to Ms. Kidwai, globally, ISIS has proven its capacity to strike in unexpected locations, as demonstrated by the first ISIS-claimed assault in Oman on 15 July 2024, where an attack on a Shia Mosque resulted in numerous casualties. In Russia, a resurgence of ISIS activity has been observed, with deadly attacks in Moscow and Dagestan, along with coordinated prison break attempts. In Syria and Iraq, where the group initially established its caliphate, ISIS has exploited the challenges brought by the COVID-19 pandemic and governmental unrest, enabling it to regroup and renew its attacks. Ms. Kidwai underscored that ISIS continues to exploit destabilised and poorly regulated regions, particularly near the Iraq-Syria border and within the Kurdish autonomous region, to smuggle weapons, move fighters, and establish sleeper cells. This threat endures despite repeated joint raids by Iraqi and American forces. In Syria, detention camps like al-Hol have become breeding grounds for new extremism, exacerbated by inadequate oversight, where indoctrination continues unabated. Simultaneously, ISIS's global reach and propaganda mechanisms have evolved, becoming increasingly sophisticated. ISKP has utilised major propaganda outlets like Al-Azaim Foundation to disseminate its extremist ideology and target regimes in Central Asia. ISKP’s media strategies, which include AI-generated content and dissemination of propaganda through platforms such as TikTok and Telegram, have significantly broadened its audience, allowing for the creation of visually compelling propaganda. ISIS has also employed outlets like Al-Naba to denounce other groups, notably branding Hamas as an apostate organisation and accusing Iran of betraying Hamas leaders. Recent developments, such as the arrest of Islamic State in Hind Province’s leader Haris Farooqi and his aide Rehan in India, further illustrate ISIS's attempts to extend its influence in South Asia. However, its reach within India has been limited. During her concluding remarks, Ms. Kidwai added that global conflicts and polarisation have hindered a unified counter-terrorism response to deal with the ISIS threat. Looking forward, ISIS is expected to exploit emerging socio-political grievances and leverage sophisticated propaganda techniques to sustain its presence within global extremist networks. Finally, these developments call for a robust, multifaceted counter-terrorism approach, addressing both the immediate and evolving threats posed by ISIS and its affiliates to ensure a comprehensive global response. Q&A SessionThe presentation was followed by a Q&A Session. Several key dynamics were addressed, revealing the multifaceted nature of contemporary terrorism, the speculation surrounding external influences in ISIS's formation, its digital transition post-territorial loss and its decentralised structure. Ms. Kidwai provided insightful responses to the comments and questions raised. This report was prepared by Ms. Dalvi Sethi, Intern, Europe & Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi. |
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Monday Morning Meeting Report on “Peace Agreements in Assam” | October 14, 2024 | Monday Morning Meeting |
Dr. Pushpita Das, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Peace Agreements in Assam” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 14 October 2024. The session was moderated by Col. DPK Pillay (Retd.), Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. The scholars of the institute were in attendance and participated in the discussion. Executive SummaryThe presentation focused on discussing various peace agreements in Assam, highlighting the significance of recent peace accords between the Indian Government and various insurgent groups in the region. These agreements mark a substantial decline in violence and indicate progress towards lasting peace. Five major peace agreements were signed between 2020 and 2023 with different ethnic insurgent groups in Assam, particularly focusing on the Bodo, Karbi, and Dimasa insurgencies. The agreements aim to balance tribal political aspirations and Assam’s territorial integrity, while also addressing socio-cultural and developmental needs. However, unresolved demands for separate statehood and ethnic tensions among smaller tribes pose ongoing challenges to sustained peace. Detailed ReportCol. DPK Pillay (Retd.) began the meeting with a brief introduction of Dr. Pushpita Das and the topic that she was to present at the meeting. Dr. Pushpita Das began her presentation by setting the context for the peace agreements, which have played a pivotal role in reducing violence in Assam. She explained that the region has long been troubled by insurgent groups with political goals ranging from demands for political autonomy to full secession. These groups, formed by ethnic tribes in Assam, have waged armed struggles over the years, seeking to safeguard their customs, traditions, and territorial rights. She further informed the scholars that the violence associated with these movements has placed Assam in a cycle of despair for decades. However, the last five years have seen a series of peace agreements signed between the Indian Government, both at the state and union levels, and various insurgent factions. Dr. Das noted that these agreements have significantly reduced the frequency of violent incidents, as a growing number of militants have surrendered and chosen to negotiate with the government, bringing a much-needed sense of peace and hope to the people of Assam. Dr. Das proceeded to discuss the timeline of the peace agreements, highlighting five major accords that were signed between 2020 and 2023. The first major peace agreement, signed on 27 January 2020, involved four factions of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB). This tripartite agreement marked a critical moment in the history of Assam’s insurgent movements. The NDFB, one of the most prominent insurgent groups in the region, had been involved in violent activities for decades, primarily in pursuit of a separate Bodo state. Over time, however, the group fractured into several factions: NDFB Progressive, NDFB Dhirendra Bodo, NDFB Ranjan Daimary, and NDFB Saoraigwra. NDFB-P had surrendered as early as 2005, and by January 2020, NDFB-S followed suit. The signing of the agreement led to the disbanding of various Bodo insurgent groups, significantly reducing violence in the region. The second peace agreement was signed on 4 September 2021 and involved various Karbi insurgent groups that had been active in the districts of Karbi Anglong. Dr. Das explained that these groups, like the Bodo factions, had long demanded a separate state. However, after years of armed struggle, over 1,000 Karbi insurgents surrendered following the signing of the peace agreement. This marked another significant step toward peace in Assam, particularly in the Karbi Anglong region, which had been a hotbed of insurgent activity for many years. On 15 September 2022, the third peace agreement was signed between the Union Government and several Adivasi insurgent groups. Dr. Das noted that the Adivasi militants had initially surrendered in 2012, and peace talks with them had begun in 2016. However, it was not until 2022 that a comprehensive agreement was reached. Following the signing of this agreement, more than 1,000 Adivasi militants surrendered. The final peace agreement that Dr. Das discussed was signed between the ULFA (Pro-Talk) faction and the Union Government on 20 December 2023. The United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) had been one of the most prominent and violent insurgent groups in Assam, with its demands centred on the creation of an independent Assam. However, over time, the pro-talk faction of ULFA entered into negotiations with the government, and the December 2023 agreement represented a significant achievement in resolving the ULFA insurgency. The Indian Government agreed to consider the ULFA (Pro-Talk) demands in a time-bound manner, and following the agreement, the militant group was officially disbanded on 23 January 2024. Dr. Das highlighted that these peace agreements, particularly those with the Bodo, Karbi, and Dimasa insurgents, were all rooted in the long-standing demand for separate states. She traced the origins of these movements back to the time of Indian independence when tribal political elites expressed concerns about merging with the Union Government. These elites feared that such a merger would jeopardize their customs, traditions, and land rights. To address these concerns, the Indian Government agreed to establish a decentralised self-governance system, creating Autonomous District Councils (ADCs) in undivided Assam. Two of these councils, Karbi Anglong (established in 1951) and North Cachar Hills (established in 1952), became the focal points of the Karbi and Dimasa movements, respectively. Dr. Das explained that the demand for separate states from the Karbi and Dimasa tribes did not initially gain momentum. However, after the Assam Reorganisation Act was passed in 1971, tribal leaders began to renew their demands for statehood. In 1979, following the Assam Agitation, the demand intensified. In the 1980s and 1990s, this discontent turned into violence, with militant groups like the United People’s Democratic Solidarity (UPDS) in Karbi Anglong and the Dimasa Halam Daogah (DHD) emerging to lead the armed struggle. In 2011, the government signed a peace agreement with the UPDS, and in 2012, a similar agreement was reached with the DHD. These agreements upgraded the district councils into territorial councils, granting them greater powers and financial resources for development. However, dissatisfaction persisted, and in 2021, the remaining insurgent groups surrendered, leading to the peace agreements signed between 2021 and 2023. Dr. Das further asserted that the Bodos, unlike the Karbi and Dimasa tribes, had been demanding a separate state even before India’s independence. Their demands intensified in 1967 when the Assamese language was made the official language of Assam, prompting the Bodos to form two organisations: the Plains Tribal Council of Assam (PTCA) and the All Bodo Student Union (ABSU). In 1993, a tripartite agreement was signed between the Government and the Bodos, granting them a separate autonomous council called the Bodoland Autonomous Council (BAC). However, new militant groups like the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) and the Bodo Liberation Tigers (BLT) emerged in the 1990s, leading to further violence. In 2003, a ceasefire agreement was signed with BLT, and the BAC was upgraded to the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC). However, the NDFB, which had been excluded from the peace talks, continued its insurgent activities until 2020, when all its factions surrendered, culminating in the peace agreement of January 2020. Dr. Das identified several salient features of the peace agreements. First, they ensured the territorial and administrative integrity of Assam, rejecting demands for separate states. Second, the agreements empowered the autonomous councils by increasing legislative seats, transferring additional subjects from the state list to the councils, and providing more financial resources for infrastructure and economic development. Third, the agreements included provisions to protect and promote the socio-cultural identity of the tribes, including the recognition of Bodo, Karbi, and Dimasa languages as official languages in their respective regions. Finally, the agreements laid out measures for the sustainable development of council areas, including the rehabilitation of surrendered militants and the announcement of special economic packages. Despite these successes, Dr. Das warned that several challenges remain. Most notably, the agreements do not address the core demand for separate statehood, which could lead to tensions in future. Moreover, granting autonomous councils to major tribes like the Bodos, Karbis, and Dimasas could lead to similar demands from smaller ethnic groups like the Kukis and Hmars, creating new sources of conflict. Additionally, the inclusion of villages in council areas with predominant populations of major tribes had resulted in ethnic cleansing of non-tribal communities earlier, and therefore, continues to be a source of concern. Questions and CommentsFollowing Dr. Das’s presentation, a lively discussion ensued among the scholars, focusing on the implications of these agreements for Assam and the broader Northeastern region of India. The session underscored both the progress made and the challenges that lie ahead in securing lasting peace in Assam. The report was prepared by Ms. Puspa Kumari, Intern, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA. |
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Monday Morning Meeting Report: ‘The Evolving Development and Security Agenda in the QUAD’ | October 07, 2024 | Monday Morning Meeting |
Ms. Shruti Pandalai, Associate Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis, made a presentation on “The Evolving Development and Security Agenda in the QUAD” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 07 Oct 2024. Dr.. Temjenmeren Ao, Associate Fellow at MP-IDSA, moderated the session. The Director General and scholars of MP-IDSA attended the meeting. Executive SummaryDr. Temjenmeren Ao started with opening remarks and some historical briefs about the Quad. He stated that the revival of Quad in recent years has been associated with a change in its objectives. Quad which brought together four nations in response to the humanitarian crisis in 2004, today is a platform for partnership in diverse areas which is key towards the promotion of a free and open Indo-Pacific region. He also emphasised the successive summits and the key initiatives in new areas from climate change to vaccines under its health partnership, AI and emerging technologies, infrastructure, that reinforce Quad as a global force for good to other countries in the region which is capable of stepping up towards delivering public goods. He emphasised how Quad in advancing deeper bilateral and multilateral cooperation such as AUKUS, SQUAD, IPEF, etc. is shaping the security cooperation network in the Indo-Pacific region. He also emphasised that Quad is not a monolithic group by any means, and there is divergence amongst the Quad members about how they perceive security challenges. However, their shared values, and concerns via-vis China are anchoring the partnership. After that, he requested Ms. Pandalai to make her presentation. Detailed ReportDr. Shruti Pandalai started with an introduction of the Quad and explained why it is valuable in the plethora of key US led initiatives. She expanded on how the Quad which is an assemblage of like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific region, was anchoring cooperation in the important geography, and how it would be worthwhile to analyse the evolution of the Quad, its developments and rebirth, key agendas, prospects, challenges, and the relevance of the Quad. Next, she explained the importance of Quad in maintaining regional stability, deterring economic and maritime coercion, and balancing major power relations amidst the rise of an assertive China. Ms. Pandalai delved into the shaping of the strategic vision of the Quad when it was revived in 2017 and up until 2019 and talked about the expansion and operationalisation of the public goods agenda between 2020 and 2022. One of her key arguments included that while the development and security agenda of the Quad go hand in hand, it would be incorrect to dismiss the security cooperation within the Quad as insignificant. Increasingly the security agenda includes the Indo Pacific Maritime Domain awareness (IPDM), intelligence sharing, joint exercises like Malabar aimed at enhancing interoperability among the Quad nations, countering regional threats through strategic and operational coordination, and strengthening of Quad. She also mentioned the impacts of election cycles on the revival of the Quad, and the developments in the Quad in 2023 and 2024. The Quad’s working groups spanning vaccines to climate change, infrastructure, security initiatives, cybersecurity partnerships, and health security initiatives have become the key markers for the Quad’s socialisation. Ms. Pandalai further discussed recent developments within the Quad, such as joint training, capacity building, 2+2 foreign and security dialogues, collective maritime capacity and capability building, cybersecurity, cooperation on undersea cable connectivity and resilience etc. While talking about the importance of Quad for India, she discussed how it had become the major platform for channelling India’s vision for the Indo-Pacific and outreach on key sectors and initiatives. She argued that it also reflected the transformation of India’s ties with each of the participating nations within the Quad. For India, the agendas overlap in bilateral, trilateral, and multilateral forums with these partner countries and helps building relationships within bureaucracies, military, industries, and technological ecosystems. Ms Pandalai then addressed the criticism of Quad, especially on hard security. She argued that the motivation of the four countries will remain to balance the security and development agenda of the Quad and provide viable alternatives to regional requirements focussed on cutting-edge tech collaboration. Concluding her presentation, she mentioned there is no current interest among the members for the expansion of the Quad, cooperation with other partners will continue on issue based agendas and approaches. Questions and CommentsThe Director General, Amb. Chinoy made insightful comments on the Quad. The scholars at MP-IDSA posed a diverse range of questions, including on the expansion of Quad membership and Quad security cooperation. Ms. Shruti Pandalai appreciated the insights from the attendees and answered the questions posed to her. |
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Monday Morning Meeting on India’s Evaluation by the FATF: Results and Implications | September 30, 2024 | Monday Morning Meeting |
Col. Vivek Chadha (Retd.), Senior Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi spoke on “India’s Evaluation by the FATF: Results and Implications” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 30 September 2024. The session was moderated by Dr. Ashok K. Behuria, Senior Fellow, MP-IDSA. Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General MP-IDSA and scholars attended the meeting. Executive SummaryThe Financial Action Task Force (FATF) is an international body combating money laundering and terror financing. Its mandate has evolved over time, and there is a need for better regulation of new technologies, public information dissemination, and private sector involvement. FATF’s mutual evaluation reports have influenced amendments in India's anti-money laundering and counter-terror measures.India has made strides in strengthening its Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) framework but faces vulnerabilities.Some key themes under consideration include the exploitation of gaming platforms for cyber fraud, the relationship between global economic structures and FATF reports, and the role of cryptocurrencies in terror financing and money laundering activities. Detailed ReportThe session began with the moderator, Dr. Ashok. K. Behuria’s opening remarks, who commented on the historical context and the purpose behind creating the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) as an international watchdog to monitor and assess threats and set global standards regarding issues such as money laundering and terror financing. He emphasised that FATF was primarily set up to reduce the vulnerabilities of the international system, which faces the risk of being exploited by terrorists and criminal networks. Q/A SessionThe Q/A Session broadly delved into themes such as the exploitative use of gaming platforms to carry out cyber fraud, the linkage between a dollar-driven or a G-7-driven economic order and the mutual evaluation reports, and the potential impact of de-dollarisation efforts on future evaluation reports released by FATF. Furthermore, issues such as the role of bitcoin in terror financing and money laundering-related activities, the link between tax evasion and money laundering, reasons behind the international legitimacy granted to FATF reports, India’s involvement in Pakistan being placed on the grey list in 2018, the scope of FATF’s involvement in reviewing non-state actors’ financial dealings, and use of hawala networks to transfer money by expatriates were also discussed. |
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Report of Fellows Seminar on "The Necessity of Military - Civil Fusion (MCF) for Making India a Global Drone Hub@2030" | August 27, 2024 | Fellows' Seminar |
The MP-IDSA Fellow’s Seminar presentation by Gp. Capt. (Dr.) R.K. Narang (Retd.), Senior Fellow, MP-IDSA, on “The Necessity of Military - Civil Fusion (MCF) for Making India a Global Drone Hub@2030” was held on 27 August 2024. It was chaired by Dr. V.K. Saraswat, former Secretary, Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), currently Member NITI Aayog. The External Discussants for the paper were Professor Hari Babu Srivastava, former DG DRDO, currently Professor of Practice at IIT Delhi, and Cmde. Jaideep Maolankar (Retd.) from Newspace Research & Technologies Pvt. Ltd. The Director General, MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Deputy Director General, Gp.Capt. (Dr.) Ajey Lele (Retd.) and scholars of the Institute participated in the Seminar. Executive SummaryThe session deliberated on making India an atmanirbhar (self-reliance) drone hub @2030, emphasising military-civil drone technology development initiatives, challenges and the way forward. Key challenges include reliance on imports, lack of civil drone R&D ecosystem, gaps in defence UAV development programs and reducing import dependence of critical systems. Recommendations by the speaker included military-civil technology fusion (MCTF), designating an existing ministry as a nodal ministry for drone technology, launching civil drone R&D initiatives, fostering design capabilities, building testing infrastructure, creating indigenous content certification mechanism and formulating Indian standards among others, on which further discussion took place. Detailed ReportAmb. Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA opened the session by introducing Dr. V.K. Saraswat, Member of NITI Aayog, as the Chairperson. He highlighted India’s progress towards greater self-reliance, emphasising that this does not equate to self-sufficiency. Self-reliance, he explained, allows ample room for international collaboration. India has actively engaged with countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, France and others. It is negotiating with global partners on the development of aero engines and other technologies. Dr. V.K. Saraswat noted thatIndian industry’s efforts toward aatmanirbharta (self-reliance) in the field of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have been limited, particularly in the development of those with strategic value. However, he acknowledged significant progress in civilian drone technology, with applications ranging from entertainment and agriculture to logistics. The core technology behind drones remains consistent, with variations primarily in payloads and command and control systems. In the civilian sector, however, the understanding of drone technology in India is limited, with only a few companies excelling in this area. Furthermore, Dr. Saraswat underlined that due to lack of focus, the civilian sector has largely depended on import of critical components. There are also distinct differences in the requirements for civilian versus military applications. As future warfare is likely to involve large-scale deployment of unmanned systems, achieving self-reliance in UAV technology requires a mission-driven approach to develop all critical components. Gp. Capt. (Dr.) R.K. Narang (Retd.) began his presentation by highlighting the critical role of the Semi-Conductor Laboratory (SCL) in Chandigarh in hand-holding of the drone startups, aimed at exploring the feasibility of developing chips to enhance security. He noted that his presentation addresses four key areas: military-civil drone policies, technology development, ecosystems and military-civil technology fusion (MCTF). He emphasised the need for significant reforms in the civilian drone sector, as well as some improvements in the defence sector. According to Gp. Capt. Narang, while India has set the ambitious goal of becoming a global drone hub, the definition of what this entails remains unclear. He defines it as a “technology and innovation-driven, high-tech, high-value civil-military drone industry, where India is self-reliant in critical technologies, while also being a global leader in certain niche technologies.” The growth of the Indian drone industry, he explained, will depend on proactive R&D, innovation and the creation of drone technologies. Additionally, the formulation of Indian standards, standardisation and trial-based certifications of emerging and enabling drone technologies will play a crucial role in achieving this vision. With standards for drones still evolving, India must adopt a proactive approach to formulate Indian standards to remain competitive in this sector. Gp. Capt. Narang further elaborated on the contribution of civil drone policy initiatives, beginning with the Drone Rules 2021, which significantly transformed India’s drone sector by addressing operations, certification, training, and Production-Linked Incentives (PLI). He also highlighted certain gaps and limitations in the drone policies. He observed India does not have a policy on certification by a drone technician. The PLI scheme supported drone manufacturing by domestic industry while simultaneously easing the import of drone components, which, in turn, made the industry reliant on imports. Although India has an airworthiness certification mechanism, there is no indication of whether products or components are indigenous. He also called for reforms in certification of drone batteries by citing an example where an Indian company developed innovative batteries, but the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) found it difficult to deviate from predefined standards to give them certification. Gp. Capt. Narang pointed out that policy initiatives were focused on facilitating drone operation and not on development or the validation of indigenous drone technologies. Notably, the Ministry of Civil Aviation lacks policies, structures and mechanisms for atmanirbharta in civil drone technologies. Discussing development challenges, he emphasised the lack of focus of innovation hubs on addressing the technology gaps. Furthermore, civil drone development initiatives by the Department of Science and Technology, MeitY and others are not focused on developing specific drone technologies. Globally, civil aviation entities are leading development of enabling technologies and integration of drones into their national airspace; however, similar initiatives by Ministry of Civil Aviation/Directorate General of Civil Aviation are lacking. Gp. Capt. Narang explained that India must also prioritise building an ecosystem for civilian drone test sites, as some Indian companies are currently forced to test their drones abroad. Accreditation remains a challenge for the Indian drone industry, and there is a pressing need to archive civil drone test data to facilitate the validation of technologies. Currently, drone education in India is limited, with only a few courses like the M.Tech program at IIT Kanpur and a handful of other universities offering specialised education. Strengthening higher education in the drone sector is essential to foster deep research in critical drone technologies within the country. Focusing on the defence UAV sector, Gp. Capt. Narang mentioned that significant policy measures have been implemented, such as the MAKE-1, MAKE-2, and Indigenously Designed, Developed, and Manufactured (IDDM) categories in the Defence Acquisition Procedure (DAP). Initiatives like iDEX and the Mehar Baba Competition have also played a key role in advancing technological development in the drone sector. Additionally, he recommended induction of test pilots and test engineers by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), National Aerospace Laboratories (NAL) and industry to help them in bridging the gap between drone designs and user expectations in UAV programs and the broader development of aviation technologies. On the issue of indigenous content (IC), Gp. Capt. Narang emphasised the need for an expert body dedicated to IC certification, which is currently lacking. India does not have a mechanism to identify indigenous content, and he stressed the importance of creating one. He drew attention towards the need for archiving indigenous designs and content within Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs) and the DRDO. He recommended reforming the Development Cum Production Partner (DcPP) model to a Development Production and User (DPU) model, where the user becomes a partner in the process rather than merely a reviewer of technology. Gp. Capt. Narang also suggested that platforms like GeM should include verticals for iDEX, Mehar Baba, or IDDM to promote indigenous technologies. Also, there is a need to standardise trial methodologies that are universally accepted, which would help reduce challenges faced by startups in the drone industry. Gp. Capt. Narang further highlighted the long-standing lack of interest in developing drone engines, emphasising the urgent need to address this gap. According to him, internal combustion (IC) engines, in particular, remain a weak area for India, with challenges in commercialisation, as well as competing with global Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) in terms of quality and efficiency. Another issue is the increasing acquisition of promising Indian startups and talent by foreign companies and VCs, which calls for concerted efforts to prevent the loss of domestic talent and innovation. Lastly, he proposed introducing an “IC 1” rating, in addition to L1 and T1 criteria, to recognise the highest levels of Indigenous Content in drone technology. Prof. Hari Babu Shrivastava made several observations and recommendations, raising key questions such as what defines a “hub” and how the MCTF initiative would benefit society, industry, and the economy as a whole. He referenced a report by Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, expressing concern that India’s indigenisation process may not keep pace with the country’s projected capabilities by 2030. He also noted that countries like Turkey and Iran have made significant advances in drone exports, emphasising the need for India to accelerate its efforts in this sector to remain competitive on the global stage. Cmde. Jaideep Maolankar (Retd.) expressed concern that specific recommendations may not be effective if the mechanisms and processes for implementation remain unchanged. He also raised concerns on the draft of the Military Airworthiness Bill, pointing out that many issues stem from deep-rooted cultural challenges, such as a risk-averse mindset and siloed working practices. He noted that many countries are already ahead of India in drone technology, and instead of following the same path, India should think ahead and adopt a different approach. For instance, he suggested that India should focus on collaborative robotics rather than UAVs. He emphasised the importance of understanding business models and advised companies to prioritise customer needs over their own preferences, highlighting the necessity of focusing on requirements engineering to align with real market demands. Questions and CommentsAmbassador Chinoy, in his remarks, posed the question of how drone technologies can be developed to meet the specific needs of infantry, particularly in terms of supply delivery and stock management. He also said that regarding engine testing, the Gas Turbine Research Establishment (GTRE) already has robust facilities, such as those used for the Kaveri engine. If India’s private sector develops its own engines, these testing facilities can be made available to support the testing and validation of their designs, encouraging collaboration between public and private sectors. Another issue is India’s reliance on foreign designs, which are re-engineered and manufactured locally, highlighting the need to strengthen domestic design capabilities. Additionally, India should aim to leapfrog technological advancements rather than merely trying to catch up with advanced technologies. Report prepared by Mr. Rohit Kumar Sharma, Research Analyst, North America & Strategic Technologies Centre. |
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Monday Morning Meeting on Presidential Election in Sri Lanka | September 23, 2024 | Monday Morning Meeting |
Dr. Gulbin Sultana, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Presidential Election in Sri Lanka” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 23 September 2024. The session was chaired by Dr. Ashish Shukla, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General of MP-IDSA and the scholars of the Institute attended the meeting. Executive SummaryAnura Kumara Dissanayake won Sri Lanka's 2024 Presidential Election after a historic second round of counting, marking the closest election in the country's history. In the first round, no candidate secured over 50 per cent of the vote required to win the election. Dissanayake received 42.31 per cent and his opponent Sajith Premadasa obtained 32.7 per cent of votes. This was the first election since the 2022 ‘Aragalaya’ - mass protests ousted former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa following a severe economic crisis. Dissanayake's promises of good governance and anti-corruption resonated with voters, leading him to victory. He also pledged to revive the economy by developing the manufacturing, agriculture, and IT sectors while continuing the International Monetary Fund bailout agreement with modification of some of the clauses to provide economic justice to the people. With 17 million eligible voters, the poll was one of the most peaceful in Sri Lankan electoral history. Detailed ReportIn his opening remarks, Dr. Ashish Shukla provided a concise overview of the recent political developments in Sri Lanka. He noted Sri Lanka’s period of economic crisis and widespread protests in 2022, which led President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country. Dr. Shukla also highlighted the positive role of Sri Lanka's leadership in securing an International Monetary Fund bailout to navigate the crisis, and said that this move, nevertheless, generated substantial public resistance. Additionally, he stressed the importance of the 2024 Presidential Election, focusing on voter turnout and the competition among three prominent candidates. He mentioned that for the first time in Sri Lankan history, preference votes were counted to declare the winner. He concluded by emphasising the election's crucial role in shaping the nation's future political landscape. Dr. Gulbin Sultana began her presentation by contextualising Sri Lanka's 2024 Presidential Election within the nation's ongoing economic crisis and public dissatisfaction with traditional leadership. She characterised this election as a pivotal moment in Sri Lankan politics, marked by the emergence of new political dynamics as citizens sought alternatives to the traditional political culture and leadership, reflecting a widespread demand for transformative change. She highlighted the competitive nature of the election, where multiple prominent candidates contended for power amid economic challenges and social unrest. She noted a complex interplay of opinions within the electorate, with differing views on the newly elected leader, Aruna Dissanayake’s ability to lead the country towards economic recovery. Dr. Sultana drew attention to the contrasting perspectives of the elites and masses regarding the leadership’s capacity to navigate both domestic and international political landscapes. She also examined the divided political support among minority communities, noting that while some candidates received their backing, there was a concern about the persistence of existing power structures and the potential for change. Dr. Sultana further analysed the electoral strategies of the leading candidates, noting that while promises of significant policy shifts were made, many candidates' historical affiliations with the existing political establishment raised doubts about their ability to enact meaningful change. She emphasised that the new leadership would need to manage public expectations carefully, particularly in relation to economic recovery and governance reforms, to ensure political stability in the future. Regarding the new President, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Dr. Sultana observed that while he is traditionally seen as aligning with leftist ideology, his party’s (National People’s Power) manifesto is not based on pure Marxist-Leninist principles. Rather the manifesto takes a pragmatic approach to deal with political, economic, social and foreign policy issues. Despite his pragmatism, there is scepticism among a section of electorates about his ability to deliver on election promises. On the issue of devolution of power, Dr. Sultana noted that past administrations have been reluctant to pursue significant changes. Dissanayake, however, has expressed a commitment to decentralising power and granting local communities political and administrative authority by drafting a new constitution. He has acknowledged the need to address Tamil issues and build a unified Sri Lankan nation that respects diversity. She concluded by stressing that Dissanayake's handling of sensitive issues and projects, particularly relations with India, will be critical to his ability to meet the electorate’s expectations. Comments and QuestionsFollowing the presentation, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, DG, MP-IDSA complimented Dr. Sultana for a comprehensive presentation and raised key questions. He inquired about the potential impact of unresolved issues like the Tamil question on Sri Lanka’s internal dynamics and its long-term political cycles. He also questioned how the election outcomes might affect India-Sri Lanka relations, noting the gap between pre-election promises and post-election actions. Furthermore, he sought clarity on Sri Lanka’s debt to China, comparing it to the situations in Bangladesh and Pakistan, and questioned why India's larger financial aid has received little media attention. The scholars inquired about the pragmatic approach needed by the new government in Sri Lanka to maintain diplomatic and economic relations, alongside discussions about Sri Lanka's sensitive stance on foreign influence and internal reforms, including ethnic and land rights issues. The discussion also touched upon China's increasing presence and Sri Lanka’s balancing act between foreign assistance and national autonomy. Dr. Gulbin Sultana responded to the comments made by the Director General and the questions raised by MP-IDSA scholars. Report prepared by Ms. Sneha M, Research Analyst, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA. |
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Monday Morning Meeting on ‘India’s Engagement With Taliban-ruled Afghanistan: Three Years On’ | September 09, 2024 | Monday Morning Meeting |
Mr. Vishal Chandra, Research Fellow, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA, spoke on ‘India’s Engagement With Taliban-ruled Afghanistan: Three Years On’ at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 9 September 2024. The session was moderated by Dr. Priyanka Singh, Associate Fellow, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA. MP-IDSA scholars attended the meeting. Executive SummaryIndia’s approach towards Afghanistan has evolved pragmatically in response to shifting power dynamics in the country over the past decades. India’s commitment to developmental projects and humanitarian assistance has remained consistent, and its people-centric approach continues to foster ties with Afghanistan’s diverse ethnic groups. These long-lasting ties with the Afghan people have endured, with India adapting to another power shift in Kabul in August 2021. Looking ahead, India needs to broaden its engagement, recognising that Afghanistan will remain a critical cog in the broader interplay of geopolitics and geoeconomics around it. Detailed ReportThe session began with moderator Dr. Priyanka Singh highlighting India’s historically fraught relationship with the Taliban, notably influenced by the execution of President Najibullah, who was an ally of India, in 1996, and the hijacking of Indian Airlines flight IC–814 in 1999. India had aligned itself with the Northern Alliance, opposing the Pakistan-backed Taliban’s rise to power in the late 1990s. Dr. Singh stated that these events, among others, have shaped India’s cautious approach towards engaging with the Taliban-led interim government. Over the past two years, diplomatic engagements with the Taliban have occurred, signalling that India is open to dialogue while ensuring that its national interests are safeguarded. Mr. Vishal Chandra’s presentation revolved around India’s evolving approach towards a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan over the past three years. His presentation highlighted India’s continued humanitarian outreach and assistance to the people of Afghanistan; reflected upon the security landscape of Afghanistan, the state of India’s relations with an Islamist Kabul, and the level of bilateral trade; and India’s approach moving forward. The Speaker, Mr. Chandra, began his presentation by quoting Prime Minister Narendra Modi from his address delivered at the inauguration of the India-constructed Afghan Parliament building in Kabul in December 2015, where he emphasised the centuries-old ‘timeless relations’ between the peoples of the two countries. Mr. Chandra was of the opinion that the Prime Minister’s speech aptly captured the spirit of what is termed as “Indo-Afghan”. Elaborating on the point, he stated that “Indo-Afghan” is a much broader historical dynamic, and has its momentum, than the formal state-to-state “India–Afghanistan” relations. It has long guided India’s people-centric approach towards Afghanistan, particularly in times of political uncertainty and instability in the country, and is well-reflected in India’s current policy pronouncements. Reflecting upon the state of relations with Kabul, Mr. Chandra noted that the Taliban regime has variously signalled its interest in building ties with New Delhi. A working understanding of sorts on non-interference and non-threat appears to have been attempted over the past two years. He also referred to visits by Indian delegations to Kabul in June 2022 and March 2024, and the deployment of officials and staff at the Indian mission in Kabul in June 2022 to coordinate the delivery of much-needed humanitarian aid and assistance to the Afghan people. He referred to the people of Afghanistan as India’s longest-standing partner in the country. On the changed security landscape in Afghanistan, Mr. Chandra remarked that from Herat in the west to Peshawar in the east, one finds only Pashtun Sunni Islamist groups—the Afghan Taliban; Haqqani network (both as a distinct entity and as part of the Taliban ‘emirate’); the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), mainly comprising of former elements from Pakistani and Afghan Taliban; and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) or the Pakistani Taliban—collaborating, competing and warring to establish their power dominance and ideological hold in the region. He further noted that the underlying interlinkages, and convergences and divergences among them and their global and regional affiliates, point to a complex maze of resurgent Sunni Jihadist entities seeking to dominate and transform the social and political landscape in the region. Mr. Chandra highlighted India’s pragmatic approach to Afghanistan, adapting to shifts in power and priorities. He pointed out the faultlines within the Taliban and their so-called ‘emirate’, which is marked by competing power centres. The Taliban chief, Hibatullah Akhundzada, governs from Kandahar, where there is an extreme concentration of power, while the Haqqani Network holds sway in Kabul. Additionally, prominent figures like Sirajuddin Haqqani (acting Taliban interior minister and leader of the Haqqani Network) and Mullah Yaqoob (acting Taliban defence minister and son of founder chief Mullah Omar) have questioned some of Akhundzada’s governing policies and decisions, including the restrictions imposed on girls’ education. Mr. Chandra informed that the Taliban have allowed women to work in select sectors, particularly health and education. However, it cannot be regarded as a major policy shift, for the Taliban had allowed women to work in these sectors earlier during their first regime in the late 1990s. Mr. Chandra underscored India’s broad-based role in Afghanistan, spanning two decades of developmental projects and aid delivery. He informed that between 2002 and 2021, India committed USD 3 billion in aid and assistance, making India the largest regional development partner of Afghanistan. India’s reconstruction assistance was multi-sectoral: education, health services, transportation, telecommunications, civil aviation, agriculture, irrigation, power generation & transmission, industry, and rural development. After the power shift in Kabul in August 2021, India quickly resumed humanitarian aid and relief assistance, dispatching 50,000 metric tonnes of wheat, 50 tonnes of essential medicine, and 28 tonnes of disaster relief assistance. India has also supplied 1100 units of female hygiene kits for the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime female rehabilitation centres in Afghanistan. Mr. Chandra added that India continued to annually allocate a budget of Rs. 200 crore for ‘Aid to Afghanistan’ through the financial years 2022–23, 2023–24, and 2024-25. The annual trade between the two countries stood at USD 889.85 million in 2022–23 and USD 997.74 million in 2023–24. As per the World Bank’s latest data, India remains the second-largest export market for Afghan products. He further informed that educational ties continue through initiatives like the 1,000 online annual scholarships for Afghan students in undergraduate and postgraduate courses offered by the Indian Council for Cultural Relations. The New Delhi-based South Asian University, through a South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation initiative, continues to give admission and provide scholarships to Afghan students in postgraduate and doctoral courses. In his concluding observations, Mr. Chandra stated that India must step up its people-centric engagement with Afghanistan to deal with the long-term impact of the changed political and security landscape in the country. He also highlighted the fact that none of India’s projects or diplomatic properties were harmed by the Taliban, underscoring the Taliban’s intent to normalise relations with New Delhi. He argued that the Taliban regime may not come across as a relatable entity or authority, but an independent Taliban is preferable to one exiled and under Pakistan’s tutelage. He noted that India’s development assistance and capacity building programmes facilitated engagement with Afghanistan’s diverse ethnic groups, including Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras, and Pashtuns. This outreach helped counter anti-India propaganda by certain state and non-state actors. India needs to constantly monitor and assess the evolving ground situation in Afghanistan. Looking ahead, Mr. Chandra argued that if the engagement is to expand, then developments in Afghanistan will have to be viewed in its social-political context, which has been upended multiple times over the past five decades, to better deal with its layered complexities. Questions and CommentsThe presentation was followed by comments and questions from the floor, focussing on India’s national interests in Afghanistan; prospects of Indian investment in Afghanistan’s mineral resources and access to Afghan and Central Asian markets; and Taliban’s regional diplomacy. The approach of Central Asian Republics, particularly that of Tajikistan, and China’s growing engagement with the Taliban regime were also discussed. Report prepared by Ms Puspa Kumari, Intern, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA. |