Summary: The Pacific Island Countries have increasingly become a key area of great power competition between China and the US. China has significantly enhanced its ties with these countries, with 10 out of 14 PICs recognising the ‘One China Policy’. Wang Yi’s visit highlights Beijing’s efforts to further consolidate ties with the region, as it seeks to pursue its ambitious geopolitical agenda. China, though, still has a long way to go before it can effectively counter the influence of traditional powers like the US and Australia.  

Introduction

China's Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi visited eight South Pacific countries—the Solomon Islands, Kiribati, Samoa, Fiji, Tonga, Vanuatu, Timor-Leste and Papua New Guinea, from 26 May to 4 June 2022. Beijing aims to deepen its comprehensive strategic partnership with the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) through mutually beneficial cooperation in various fields.1 China affirms that, in doing so, it gives special emphasis to the promotion of regional peace and security. However, there are concerns that China may seek to enforce non-transparent agreements with Pacific island nations, which could be detrimental to their interest in the long-term.2 This Issue Brief examines growing Chinese influence in the Pacific Islands, the importance of the region for Beijing and the challenges it faces in achieving its geopolitical objectives.

China’s Inroads into the Pacific

In the past few decades, China has steadily expanded its diplomatic, trade and aid activities in the Pacific Islands. Wen Jiabao became the first Chinese Premier to visit Fiji in April 2006. He inaugurated the China–Pacific Economic Development and Cooperation Forum. In November 2014, President Xi Jinping visited Fiji, when the relationship with the PIC was elevated from friendly and cooperative relationship to that of a strategic partnership.3

At international forums such as the United Nations, each Pacific state has a vote. China, therefore, seeks their support on issues such as Hong Kong, the South and East China Seas, Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang and human rights. During Wang Yi's visit, many Pacific leaders vowed to stick to the ‘One China’ policy.4

Kiribati switched its allegiance to China in 2019. A year later, China became one of the only four countries to open an embassy in Kiribati, alongside Australia, New Zealand and Cuba. China was also successful in gaining diplomatic recognition from Solomon Islands, one of Taiwan's closest allies, in 2019.  However, the diplomatic conflict between Taiwan and China is not over yet. In the Pacific, Palau, the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Nauru still recognise Taiwan. In March 2022, these four countries reaffirmed diplomatic relations with Taipei.5

During 1992–2021, total trade volume that China had with the PICs having diplomatic relations with it registered an average annual increase of 13 per cent and expanded by over 30 times.6 China is the largest trading partner of Pacific Island Forum (PIF) countries (excluding Australia and New Zealand). In 2017, China's goods trade with these countries reached US$ 8.2 billion, surpassing Australia's US$ 5 billion and the United States' US$1.6 billion. China is also the top trading partner of the Solomon Islands. Since President Xi's 2014 visit to the region, China has increased its cumulative foreign direct investment in Pacific Island countries by 173 per cent, amounting to US$ 2.8 billion in 2016. While Beijing’s FDI has surpassed US FDI of US$ 2.4 billion, it is still far behind Australia’s FDI in Pacific Island countries, which stood at US$ 12.7 billion in 2016.7

China has also dramatically scaled up its aid efforts. A Lowy Institute study shows that between 2006 and 2017, China provided approximately US$ 1.5 billion in aid to the Pacific Islands region through grants and loans.8 During 2011–17, China contributed 8 per cent of the total foreign aid, making it the third-largest donor in the region, after Australia (45 per cent) and New Zealand 9 (per cent). By increasing its diplomatic and economic profile in the South Pacific, analysts note that China is exercising ‘soft balancing’ behaviour against established powers in the region rather than engaging in ‘hard’ or military competition with them.9

China has signed Belt and Road Cooperation MoUs with 10 PICs—Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu. Chinese businesses have undertaken projects worth over US$ 20 billion. China has provided technical assistance, and concessional loan projects, for building critical infrastructure like roads, bridges, wharfs, hospitals, schools and stadiums.

During his recent visit, Wang Yi stated that his purpose was to consolidate friendship and ‘build platforms of cooperation’.10 Both sides announced the establishment of the China–Pacific Island Countries Demonstration Center for Agricultural Cooperation, Disaster Preparedness and Mitigation Cooperation Center, and the Juncao Technology Demonstration Center, among other initiatives.

The strengthening of Beijing's relations with PICs gives it access to the Pacific region that have a wealth of natural resources and are strategically significant. During World War II, for instance, the South Pacific islands provided vital basing and anchorage for Japanese air and naval forces. China aims to position itself as a responsible strategic partner, at the forefront of ‘South–South cooperation’. Beijing aims to create a China-led regional security architecture, and contends that the US is not an Asian power.11

Military officers from PICs are trained by the PLA.12 In 2016, Papua New Guinea opened its defense attaché office in Beijing to coordinate military activities between the two countries.13 Fiji had opened its defense attaché office in Beijing in 2007. Officers from the four PICs with militaries—Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Tonga and Vanuatu—have bilateral meetings with their PLA counterparts. Furthermore, the PLA hosts a biannual forum for defence officials from the Caribbean and Pacific Islands.14

Military assistance from Beijing has increased in the Pacific Islands region. Papua New Guinea's Defense Force received 62 military vehicles worth US$ 5.5 million from China in November 2017.15 The vehicles included 44 troop carriers, 10 armoured vehicles, four buses, four mobile kitchen vans and spare parts. The PLAN Peace Ark hospital ship visited Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Tonga and Vanuatu in 2014, and provided free medical care to its citizens. The ship visited the region again in 2018.16 Chinese naval ships have made two port calls since 2014, one in Fiji in December 2016 and another in Vanuatu in June 2017.17

Challenges for China’s Pacific Policy

Resistance from the PICs

While Wang Yi was successful in inking multiple ‘win-win’ cooperation pacts in wide-ranging fields, he failed to gain consensus on sensitive areas such as policing, cybersecurity and maritime surveillance. The Chinese Embassy in Fiji attempted to brush off the issue by tweeting that "not every China-Pacific Islands ministerial meeting will necessarily produce outcome documents".18 However, this does demonstrate China's inability to influence the region and fully achieve its geopolitical goals.

Countries like Samoa, for instance, turned down the proposed China-Pacific Island Countries Common Development Vision Agreement, with Samoan Prime Minister Fiame Naomi Mata'afa stating that an agreement cannot be signed without discussing it first among the regional countries.19 Fiji's Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama noted that protection from non-traditional security threats like climate change, Covid-19, unemployment and inflation mattered more to the nation than the ones proposed by Beijing.20 Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) strongly opposed the Common Development Vision agreement, with President David Panuelo calling it "disingenuous".21 FSM fears that the agreement would allow Chinese influence in government and promote control of key industries.

The PICs fear that the proposed Agreement would increase the chances of great power competition and possible conflict between China and Australia, Japan, the US and New Zealand.22 These nations have deferred their decision on the issue till the next Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) meeting, scheduled from 11 to 14 July 2022. A major challenge for China is that the forum includes nations like Australia, New Zealand, Palau, Tuvalu and Nauru, all of which are formal diplomatic allies of Taiwan and not China. There is a possibility that consensus on the agreement may not be reached.

The Republic of Palau, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the FSM, further share a unique bilateral relationship with Washington. Each nation has special agreements called ‘Compacts of Free Association’ that offer the US military exclusive access to the land, sea and air routes of this region.23 In exchange, the US provides financial assistance and other essential services to these countries. Getting these countries out of Washington’s sphere of influence will be an enormous challenge for Beijing. China also encountered other roadblocks along the way. Prior to Wang Yi's arrival in Fiji, Fijian President Bainimarama announced that his country would join the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF)24 , which China opposes.

Following reports that China planned to upgrade a World War II airstrip in Kiribati, which would harm the already stressed fish stock in the country, local public opinion became wary of closer ties with Beijing. The opposition leader warned that not only the country’s democratic system but also its sovereignty was under attack due to the incumbent government’s closer ties with China and highlighted the need for international support to ensure their survival as a democracy.25

Restrictions and prohibitions on the number of foreign journalists and type of questions allowed at the press conferences during Wang Yi’s visit have also raised suspicions amongst the local population at lack of transparency.26 The Media Association of the Solomon Islands asked its members to boycott the press conference to protest Beijing's restrictions on local journalists.27

Other Major Powers in the Region

A report by the US–China Economic and Security Review Commission in June 2018 stated that a Chinese military base or facility in the South Pacific could ‘have implications for U.S. military presence and training in the Indo-Pacific and could pose obstacles to U.S. strategic access in the Pacific Islands’.28 It added that such a facility would also affect Australia, New Zealand, and other key US partners in the Pacific Island region.

The US launched the Indo-Pacific Strategy in February 2022, which outlined Washington’s strategy in the region.29 The strategy highlights US determination to strengthen its long- term position in the region and reaffirms its commitment to the Indo-Pacific. President Donald Trump hosted leaders of three Pacific Island Countries in May 2019—the Republic of Palau, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia. The same year, Mike Pompeo became the first US Secretary of State to visit FSM.

China has a long way to go before it can counter the influence of such traditional players in the region. In the Pacific, Australia, South Korea, Japan and the US have boosted their naval might. Australia provides the most substantial aid to the region. Penny Wong, Australia's Foreign Minister, visited Fiji, Samoa and Tonga in conjunction with Wang Yi's visit. Canberra reaffirmed its commitment to its Pacific Island neighbours.30 In Fiji, Wong reiterated that Australia will remain a critical development partner, especially in dealing with the triple challenge of climate change, Covid-19 and strategic contestations.31 She announced an eight-year partnership with Samoa to help address human development in the Pacific island nation. Additionally, Australia agreed to donate a new patrol boat to Samoa, after the one it donated two years ago ran aground on a reef in August 2021.32

Australia and New Zealand have shown a determination in the recent past to step up their engagement in the neighbourhood out of concern at China’s rising influence. A notable example is Australia’s Pacific Step-up Policy, first announced at the Pacific Island Forum Leaders' Meeting in September 2016. Under this initiative, Australia committed US$ 1.44 billion in development assistance to the Pacific in 2020–21.33 It has undertaken projects such as the Coral Sea Cable system—which provides telecommunications infrastructure to Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea, and the Pacific Labour Mobility Scheme—to provide jobs for Pacific and Timor-Leste workers, among other initiatives.

The Quad released a Joint Statement after the May 2022 Tokyo summit.34 It pledged to further strengthen their cooperation with Pacific Island Countries in order to boost their economic well-being, improve their health infrastructure, strengthen their environmental resilience, protect their maritime security and sustain their fisheries. The Quad agreed to provide sustainable infrastructure, enhance educational opportunities, and mitigate and adapt to climate change, which poses particular challenges to the Pacific Island Countries.

Conclusion

The Pacific Island Countries have increasingly become a key area of great power competition between the US and China. Over the decades, China has made considerable inroads into the island nations, forged greater bilateral relations through enhanced diplomatic and development activities and has successfully got 10 out of 14 countries to recognise the ‘One China Policy’. Analysts note that China’s long-term objective in the region is to establish a military foothold in the South Pacific. For this to materialise, China is making every effort to deepen bilateral ties through developmental aid and high-level visits, and entice Pacific leaders who see political, economic, or personal benefits in allying with Beijing. Wang Yi’s visit highlights Beijing’s efforts to further consolidate ties with the region, as it seeks to pursue its ambitious geopolitical agenda.

• 1. “China’s Position Paper on Mutual Respect and Common Development with Pacific Island Countries”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, 30 May 2022.
• 2. “Department Press Briefing”, U.S. Department of State, 25 May 2022; “Department Press Briefing”, U.S. Department of State, 31 May 2022.
• 3. “Xi Jinping Holds Group Meeting with Leaders of Pacific Island Countries and Delivers a Keynote Speech Building Strategic Partnership of Mutual Respect and Common Development and Together Realizing Dream of Development, Prosperity and Harmony”, Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the Federated States Of Micronesia, 29 December 2014.
• 4. “Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin’s Regular Press Conference”,Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, 26 May 2022.
• 5. “Marshall Islands Says 'Strongly Committed' to Taiwan Ties”, Reuters, 22 March 2022.
• 6. “China’s Position Paper on Mutual Respect and Common Development with Pacific Island Countries”, no. 1.
• 7. Ethan Meick, Michelle Ker and Han May Chan, “China’s Engagement in the Pacific Islands: Implications for the United States”, U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 14 June 2018.
• 8. “Pacific Aid Map”, Lowy Institute.
• 9. Marc Lanteigne, “Water Dragon? China, Power Shifts and Soft Balancing in the South Pacific”, Political Science, Vol. 64, No. 1, 2016, pp. 21–38.
• 10. “Wang Yi: China Stands Ready to Build Six New Platforms for Cooperation with Pacific Island Countries”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China,30 May 2022.
• 11. “The 4th Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) Summit”, Embassy of the People's Republic of China in New Zealand, 21 May 2014.
• 12. “Fiji's Prime Ministers Meets High-powered Chinese Military Delegation”, Papua New Guinea Today, 22 January 2013.
• 13. “PNGDF Opens New Office in China”, Post Courier, 1 November 2016.
• 14. “Fact Sheet: Cooperation between China and Pacific Island Countries”,Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, 24 May 2022.
• 15. Sean Jacobs, “Time to ‘Step Up’ the Tempo:  Australia’s Answer to Beijing in Papua New Guinea” The Centre for Independent Studies, October 2021.
• 16. “The Chinese Navy Hospital Ship Ark Peace Will Visit Tonga in a Couple of Days”, Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the Kingdom of Tonga, 11 August 2018.
• 17. “25th Chinese Naval Escort Taskforce Visits Vanuatu”, Loop Pacific, 29 June 2017.
• 18. Chinese Embassy in Fiji, “Any joint document involves an ongoing process of discussion…”, Twitter, 2 June 2022.
• 19. Kirsty Needham, “Pacific Needs to Meet on Proposed China Pact”, Reuters, 2 June 2022.
• 20. Ryan Young, “Fiji’s Prime Minister Says Climate Change is Island Nation’s Biggest Concern”, The Australian, 28 May 2022.
• 21. Yvette Tan, “Have China's Pacific Ambitions been Thwarted?”BBC News, 2 June 2022.
• 22. Kirsty Needham, “China Seeks Pacific Islands Policing, Security Cooperation”, Reuters, 26 May 2022.
• 23. “Compacts of Free Association”, U.S. Department of the Interior.
• 24. Frank Bainimarama, “Today, I accepted the invitation extended by @POTUS for Fiji to become…”, Twitter, 27 May 2022.
• 25. Barbara Dreaver, “Top Level Chinese Delegation Headed to Kiribati”, 1News, 25 May 2022.
• 26. Kate Lyons, “Outcry as China Stops Pacific Journalists Questioning Wang Yi”, The Guardian, 31 May 2022.
• 27. Pita Ligaiula, “Solomon Islands Media Boycott Chinese Foreign Minister’s Visit to Honiara”, Pacific News Service, 25 May 2022.
• 28. Ethan Meick, Michelle Ker and Han May Chan, “China’s Engagement in the Pacific Islands: Implications for the United States”, U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 14 June 2018.
• 29. “Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States”, The White House, February 2022.
• 30. “Visit to Fiji”, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Australia, 25 May 2022.
• 31. “New Foreign Minister Penny Wong Makes Pitch to Pacific Nations during Visit to Fiji”, ABC News, 27 May 2022.
• 32. Joshua Boscaini, “Penny Wong Announces Eight-year Partnership with Samoa, Donation of New Patrol Boat”, ABC News, 2 June 2022.
• 33. “Stepping-up Australia’s Engagement with our Pacific Family”, Australian Government Department of Foreign Affairs.
• 34. “Quad Joint Leaders’ Statement”, Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, 24 May 2022.

Summary: Far-right extremism, rooted in the Nazi and Fascist ideologies of the 20th century, has gained popularity across first world countries. Among factors that have propelled far-right extremism include Islamist terrorism, the 2008 financial crisis and European Union immigration policies—particularly after the outbreak of the Syrian war. The surge in disinformation, amidst the pandemic, has also made people susceptible to far-right indoctrination. The far-right exploits socio-economic grievances to further its cause. Effective steps must be taken to contain and roll back the far-right threat.

Introduction

Far-right extremism, rooted in the anti-Semitic, White supremacist Nazi and Fascist ideologies of the 20th century, has gained popularity across the first world countries due to a combination of factors. As per the Counter-Terrorism Committee of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), there has been a 320 per cent increase in far-right activities during 2015 and 2020, accounting for 82 per cent of global terrorist deaths.1

The US and European countries have been most affected by this phenomenon. The January 2021 Capitol Hill riots in Washington D.C. killed six and injured at least 150, while the mass shooting in a New York supermarket store in May 2022 killed ten black people while three were wounded. The percentage of far-right prisoners in the United Kingdom during 2018 and 2020, increased from 33 to 44 per cent.2 One of the significant far-right attacks outside of these geographies is the 2019 attack on a Christchurch mosque that killed 51 and injured 40.

Factors Fomenting Far-Right Extremism

Among factors that have fomented far-right extremism and propelled the movement forward is Islamist terrorism, beginning in the 1990s, which fomented fear, backlash and paranoia. The 2008 financial crisis created scepticism about the viability of the Bretton Woods framework. The period between 2015 and 2020 has proved equally consequential for the far-right movement. The immigration policies of the European Union, particularly after the outbreak of the war in Syria, the Paris terror attacks in November 2015, and the beheading of Samuel Paty, a schoolteacher, in October 2020, gave far-right extremists the mileage needed to advance their cause.

The Ukraine–Russia conflict has also brought to the fore issues associated with the threat of the far-right. In 2014 as well as in 2022, thousands of foreign fighters have flocked to Eastern Europe to fight on both sides of the divide. While ideology has presumably acted as the driving force for their temporary migration, the conflict has also provided an opportunity for these individuals to acquire combat and arms training in a real-world scenario.

Until the pandemic and the current phase of the conflict, Kyiv was also host to an annual far-right, hard-metal music festival. The event had long acted as the melting pot for far-right proponents to congregate and forge connections. Reports note that these individuals have also formed an association, called the Pact of Steel.3 A pact with the similar name was signed by Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini in May 1939, formalising the Rome-Berlin Axis Agreement of 1936, which unified Germany and Italy, politically and militarily.

The Covid-19 pandemic has also exacerbated the crisis. The surge in disinformation, as people have become more active on social media and online forums amidst the pandemic lockdowns, has made people susceptible to far-right indoctrination. Anti-vax protestors also are often members of far-right movements, convinced that liberal elites plan to strip them of their freedoms.4 They hold immigrants responsible for spreading the virus worldwide.

Far-Right Ideologies

The growing popularity of far-right propaganda, at least over the past decade, has origins in the virulent rhetoric and theories spouted by extremist ideologies. These include, among others, The Great Replacement Theory, Accelerationism, and Eco-fascism. The Great Replacement Theory was popularised by Renaud Camus in 2011.5 It states that there is a conspiracy hatched by ‘replacist elites’ to replace White Christian societies with multi-religious and multi-ethnic states. These elites are those intentionally bringing in illegal immigrants into predominantly white European countries, thereby replacing the native white Europeans. This has taken on two names—White genocide in North America and ‘EurAbia’ in Europe, i.e., Europe transforming into an Arab-dominated Islamist entity.

Accelerationism is a belief that current liberal governments have become corrupt and inefficient and must be violently overthrown for a White-dominated order to emerge.6. For this to occur, it contends that Jews, liberal elites, ‘race traitors’ (those indulging in inter-racial relationships), and selected civilian and state personnel groups would need to be systematically targeted and eliminated. The Capitol Hill Riots are attributed to this fringe far-right ideology.

The attack on the Tree of Life Synagogue in 2018 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, in which 11 people were killed and seven wounded, including the perpetrator, Robert Bowers, was possibly one of the worst anti-Semitic attacks on American soil. Bowers believed that synagogues brought illegal immigrants from Latin America, and resettled them into the US, altering the country’s demography. A major narrative that supports these conspiracy theories is that George Soros, the influential Jewish businessman, is funding illegal migrant caravans bound for the US.7

Such ideas have inspired American neo-Nazis, such as Dylann Storm Roof, who murdered nine African-American worshippers in a church in Charleston, South Carolina, in June 2015. Roof’s action was allegedly in retaliation for the “persecution” of Whites, especially White women, who he contended were being raped by African-Americans.8 Reports noted that he had prepared 38 bullets to be placed inside his handgun. According to White supremacist literature, 38 is a codeword for Heil (Hail) Hitler.

Eco-fascism links cultural and environmental degradation and is rooted in the belief that immigrants bear the sole responsibility for negative climatic repercussions in predominantly European societies.9 Therefore, they believe that immigration has to be permanently halted and homogenous White communities must be carved out from existing territories. Breton Tarrant, the Christchurch shooter, was inspired by such ideas. It is pertinent to note that the idea of Lebensraum (Breathing Space) was central to Hitler’s expansionist designs and was the pre-World War II version of eco-fascism.

The alleged legitimisation of far-right narratives by people in positions of authority and influence, such as US House of Representatives members Elise Stefanik and Matt Gaetz, Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson, political parties like the AfD in Germany and the National Rally in France, and commentators like Douglas Murray in the UK, have only worsened the situation. Notably, the National Rally increased its vote share from 8 to 89 per cent in the French parliamentary elections held in June 2022.10

Historical and Contemporary Trends

Far-right extremists use violence or threat of violence to advocate, among other things, ethno-White supremacy and violent overthrow of state authorities. They are both anti-feminist and anti-Semitic. Unlike Islamist radicals, far-right extremists generally do not claim responsibility for their actions in the attacks’ aftermath. They want to preserve the secrecy associated with their organisations, thereby preventing authorities from bringing the outfits onto their radar.

These outfits or individuals also prefer to operate in a decentralised manner. Louis Beam, in Essays of a Klansman, advocated for White supremacists to form leaderless and smaller groups, to create an 'intelligence nightmare' for security agencies.11 James Mason, who advocated for the establishment of a successor state to Nazi Germany, called on his supporters (in his collection of newsletters, Siege) to selectively target and eliminate people, while fomenting a White supremacist insurgency against the host state.12

The far-right draws inspiration from martyrdom tactics propounded by ISIS, and generally, while not always, convene online on platforms such as Telegram, Gab, Twitch, Discord, and Facebook. They also rely on social media and on seemingly innocuous posts to further their agenda.

Far-right extremists bestow titles such as ‘saints’ on White perpetrators carrying out acts of mass violence.13 They use channels like Telegram to praise these individuals and encourage others to follow suit. Adulation of mass violence, as indicated by hashtags such as #pleaseletitbewhite on several encrypted Telegram channels every time a shooting occurs, indicates the gravity of the situation. This occurs primarily in countries such as the US, where easy access to guns exacerbates the threat of far-right terrorism.

Such adulation, presumably, also stems from the notion, besides Great Replacement and White genocide, that violence faced by the white community is far more than what African-Americans experience frequently. The latter, referred to in derogatory terms by far-right supremacists, are opportune scapegoats to serve as targets in the impending race war, pitting the ‘superior’ White community against others.

Far-right extremism has emerged as a counter-response to what White supremacists consider acts of attrition against their culture, values, tradition and identity. Far-right ideologies are being rebranded to become more relevant by mainstreaming it worldwide. Some of the fundamental reasons why neo-liberal model has been declining in proportion to far-right’s resonance with ordinary people is due to the re-assertion of nationalist identities, lack of trust in liberal democratic governance and moderate media platforms, and the perceived ineptitude of governments to address worldwide socio-economic and health crises.

What ‘oppressed’ far-right find problematic is the demand for equitable rights by supporters of ‘Jewish Marxist’ elites and the latter’s attempts at replacing them from positions of authority, which they believe rightfully belongs to them. Unsurprisingly, President Barack Obama’s inauguration in 2008 sent a shock wave across the conservative Republicans, several of whom, by January 2021, tilted towards the extreme far-right.

Fictional novels and movies have inspired some deplorable, mass-casualty terrorist attacks. William Luther Pierce’s The Turner Diaries inspired the April 1995 Oklahoma City Bombing, a coordinated attack by Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols on the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building which wounded more than 600, including children at a daycare centre and killed 168 people.14 Until 9/11, this was the deadliest attack on American soil and the first known significant act of violent domestic extremism.

Far-right forces have gradually infiltrated armed forces and police as serving or retired personnel, particularly in the US, Germany and the UK. In the US, Proud Boys and Oath Keepers—far-right, armed militias comprised of former and serving service officials, stormed the Capitol Hill. A grand jury charged several of them with seditious conspiracy in June 2022. Neo-Nazi inclinations within the German army continue to haunt that country’s armed forces. In July 2020, the second company of the Kommando Spezialkräfte (Special Forces Command, KSK) was dissolved.15 The charges against this company included indulging in extreme-right rock music and performing Nazi salutes. The trigger for the unit’s disbandment came when one of its Sergeant Majors, who had served in the company for 20 years, was found to have concealed stolen explosives and ammunition, alongside Nazi mementoes.

Counter-Strategies Adopted by the West

Governments, social media forums, and civil society organisations have adopted several measures to counter the surge in far-right extremism. Initiatives like Verlassen Sie Deutschland or Exit Germany have become successful.16 Since its inception in 2000, it has reported at least 800 successful cases and a mere 3 per cent recidivism rate. It counsels those willing to leave the far-right lifestyle behind. It also provides practical aid to those looking to disengage from extremist movements through measures such as police protection and a new identity.

In 2011, President Barack Obama instituted the Office for Targeted Violence and Terrorism Prevention, with an annual budget of US$ 21 million.17 After the 2016 elections—when Donald Trump took over, the budget of the office was reduced to $3 million, and there was a near-complete shift in focus towards Islamist terrorism.18 Under President Joe Biden, the budget has again increased to US$ 20 million in 2021.19

Additional steps that need to be taken to contain the far-right threat include the need to increase funding for research into such issues. Research centres should be set up to evaluate challenges through policy and academic prisms. There is also a need to create a mutually accessible database for affected countries and their intelligence agencies to draft global strategies to counter the far-right threat, focusing on overall profiles, logos, attacks and threat assessments of various neo-Nazi and neo-fascist groups. It is vital to boost digital literacy to counter misinformation and disinformation stemming from conspiracy theories. Finally, it is paramount to set up rehabilitation programmes based on the German format, tailor-made to suit each country, for those willing to leave such lifestyles behind.

Potential Impact on India

India must keep a close watch on these developments, especially if the far-right elements come to power. Even if they do not form governments, individuals professing such views could occupy important portfolios. The far-right agenda is seeped with protectionist, anti-globalist, and anti-immigration attitudes, which frequently have resulted in violence in these countries. Such worldviews can negatively undermine Indian interests.

India and other Asian countries also must no longer depend on the West, led by the US, to uphold the liberal democratic values that have sustained the post-World War II era. They must seek alternative arrangements to strengthen their guard against far-right ideologies permeating these countries. India is the world’s largest democracy and the most important bastion in regional affairs to lead this task.

Conclusion

The beginnings of the National Socialist Party or the Nazi Party in Germany, while initially appearing as benign, culminated in the horrors of the Holocaust and World War II. Although governments and societies now are cognizant of such nefarious tendencies, they still need to strengthen their efforts to counter this menace. Former German Interior Minister, Horst Seehofer, pointed to mounting evidence of “brutalisation” of German society on account of rising far-right crimes.20 Extremism is a sociological challenge and must be treated as such. The far-right taps into the emotions of people and exploits their socio-economic grievances to further its cause. If not tackled effectively, at the societal and governmental level, such ideologies could lead to the collapse of the liberal and rules-based domestic and international orders.

• 1. Cynthia Miller-Idriss, “Strengthening Democracy is the Key to Preventing Far-Right Extremism”, Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, 30 April 2021.
• 2. Dan Sabbagh, “Number of Far-Right Terrorist Prisoners in Britain Hits Record High”, The Guardian, 17 June 2020.
• 3. Yassin Musharbash, “The Globalization of Far-Right Extremism: An Investigative Report”, CTC Sentinel, Combating Terrorism Centre, July/August 2021.
• 4. “German Call to Ban ‘Jewish Star’ At Covid Demos”, BBC News, 7 May 2021.
• 5. Lara Bullens, “How France’s ‘Great Replacement’ Theory Conquered the Global Far-Right”, France24, 8 November 2021.
• 6. Bruce Hoffman, “A Year after January 6, Is Accelerationism the New Terrorist Threat?”, Council on Foreign Relations, 5 January 2022.
• 7. Alistair Coleman, “Fake Soros Scares Bid to Draw US Voters Ahead of Mid-terms”, BBC News, 2 November 2018.
• 8. Jelani Cobb, “Inside the Trial of Dylann Roof”, The New Yorker, 29 January 2017.
• 9. Alistair Walsh, “Eco Fascism: The Greenwashing of the Far-right”, DW, 19 May 2022.
• 10. Jules Darmanin, “Le Pen’s National Rally Wins Seats, Airtime and Money in French Vote”, Politico, 20 June 2022.
• 11. J.M. Berger, “The Strategy of Violent White Supremacy Is Evolving”, The Atlantic, 7 August 2019.
• 12. Zach Beauchamp, “A Neo-Nazi Idea to Spark a Race War Inspired the Buffalo Killings”, Vox, 16 May 2022.
• 13. Will Carless, “Online, Extremists Turn Shooters into ‘Saints.’ Experts Worry Others Aspire to Join the Ranks”, USA Today, 20 May 2022.
• 14. Aja Romano, “How a Dystopian Neo-Nazi Novel Helped Fuel Decades of White Supremacist Terrorism”, Vox, 28 January 2021; “Oklahoma City Bombing”, Federal Bureau of Investigation, n.d.
• 15. “KSK: German Special Forces Company Dissolved due to Far-right Concerns”, DW, 30 July 2020.
• 16. “EXIT-Germany|We Provide Ways Out Of Extremism”, exit Deutschland, n.d. 
• 17. Eric Rosand and Stevan Weine, “On CVE, the Trump Administration could have been Worse: But it’s Still Not Good Enough”, Brookings, 7 April 2020.
• 18. Peter Beinart, “Trump Shut Programs to Counter Violent Extremism”, The Atlantic, 29 October 2018.
• 19. Jon Schuppe, “DHS has a Program to Fight Domestic Extremism, but Critics Question How Effective It Really Is”, NBC News, 18 May 2022.
• 20. Kate Connolly, “German Society Brutalized as Far-Right Crimes Hit Record Levels”, The Guardian, 4 May 2021.

Myanmar has been in a turmoil since the Tatmadaw (country’s military) ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s government and seized power in February 2021.1 The coup took place hours before the new parliament could convene following the 2020 general elections. The junta has detained her since then and reimposed military rule after running a short experiment under a power-sharing arrangement with the National League for Democracy (NLD).2 There are concerns that Myanmar could morph into another Syria with widespread displacement and hunger, aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic. This commentary explores the sustained crackdown by the junta, the painstaking efforts undertaken by the ousted government to remain relevant domestically and gain legitimacy abroad, how the Tatmadaw is currently fighting a multi-front war in several areas of the borderlands, the adoption of violent tactics by members of the civil disobedience movement and ASEAN’s inability to find a permanent solution to the worsening crisis in Myanmar.

This article deals with the Russian Revisionist Strategy, the redistribution of power and the changes that this policy might bring. Accordingly, it examines whether this hypothesis is correct. NATO’s policy and the wars in Crimea, Georgia, Syria and the current one in Ukraine are the case studies that the article analyses. It discusses how Russia aims to restructure the regional and global system by forming strategic arcs and ‘pincer movements’ from the North Sea to the Middle East via the Caucasus Region. The war in Ukraine is at the epicentre of the Russian revisionist strategy.