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Internal Security Trends in 2013 and a Prognosis

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  • January 24, 2014

    The internal security situation in India reflected a marked improvement in 2012-2013 relative to previous years according to the Ministry of Home Affairs report.1 Infiltration in Kashmir decreased, terrorism in the hinterland was kept under control, the levels of violence in the Naxal affected states showed a decline, and the Northeast of India, while witnessing communal violence, and inflicted by several armed groups, remained by and large peaceful. Steps were taken to strengthen the internal security institutional apparatuses like the National Investigation Agency (NIA), the Multi Agency Centre (MAC), and a Combating Financing Terrorism Cell (CFC) within the MHA established in 2012. With regard to border management, the fencing of the Indo-Bangladesh and Indo-Pakistan border, floodlighting of the borders as well as establishment of several new Integrated Check Posts (ICPs) were a priority for the Department of Border Management along with road-building along the India-China and India-Nepal borders.

    However, certain major challenges remained as in seen from the trend analysis of 2013. The Kashmir valley continued to remain violence prone, Naxalism remained active in the affected areas, the armed groups in the Northeast did not disarm, and communal tensions and terror strikes in vulnerable areas continued. The porous international land borders also continued to suffer from illegal infiltration and arms transfers.

    This Internal Security Issue Brief offers an assessment of the major trends in 2013 for Jammu and Kashmir, the land borders of India, Naxalism, the Northeast, terrorism and radicalism in India. It also offers a prognosis for the year ahead.


    Jammu and Kashmir - S.K. Sharma

    Trends in 2013

    The situation in Jammu and Kashmir (J and K), as of now, is calm. But this calm could always prove deceptive. Right now, there are no agitations, no stone pelting, and no large scale strikes/demonstrations. During 2013, tourists went to Kashmir in good numbers and there were no large scale infiltration. However, Kashmiri youth were particularly angry after Mohammad Afzal Guru was hanged on February 9, 2013 virtually bringing the Kashmir Valley to the standstill. Hence, while these youths may not come on to the streets and protest but they have internalized the anger and that is dangerous. One wrong step by the state could create trouble. Those who monitor the social networking sites can understand how radicalized Kashmiri youth have become. There are reports that Muslim youths from J and K have started joining militant outfits, particularly the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT).

    Both the factions of Hurriyat continued to highlight the human rights violations by the security forces. The faction led by Mirwaiz Umar Farooq observed human rights week from December 5, 2013 during which its supporters organized seminars, exhibitions and documentaries showing how the Indian security forces are engaged in human rights abuses in Kashmir. Earlier, Al Umar Mujahideen chief who has been dormant for a few years made a call to observe October 27, 2013 as a Black Day in Kashmir. Similar calls were issued by both the factions of Hurriyat and Hizbul Mujahideen supremo Syed Salahuddin.

    There were mixed reactions in the Valley on the meeting between the Prime Ministers of India and Pakistan on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in September 2013. While hardliner Hurriyat leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani termed the meeting as a ‘futile diplomatic move’, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq led Hurriyat called it a “bold initiative”. Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) Chairman Yasin Malik said that there was need for sincere efforts in solving the Kashmir issue. He said that reiterating old stands and taking cosmetic measures could not be termed as negotiations. Later he questioned Pakistan about its role in India-Pakistan talks. He wanted to know what Pakistan has done when Kashmiris have been suffering since the last 60 years.

    Four separate delegations led by Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, Syed Geelani, Yasin Malik and Dukhtarain Millat chief Asiya Andrabi met Sartaj Aziz, Adviser on Kashmir Affairs to Pakistan Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif in New Delhi on November 10, 2013. During the meeting with Aziz, the Kashmiri leaders reportedly conveyed their stand that no ready-made solution to Kashmir will be accepted and Kashmiri leadership must be taken on board as the principal party to the dispute. As is usual, Aziz reaffirmed that Pakistan will continue to support Kashmiris morally, diplomatically and politically till its final resolution.

    In a dramatic turn of events in the beginning of year 2014, the Hurriyat led by Mirwaiz suffered another split as Democratic Freedom Party President Shabir Ahmad Shah, National Front Chairman Nayeem Ahmad Khan and Mahaz-e-Azadi chief Azam Inqalibi announced the formation of a third faction of the Hurriyat Conference, calling it the “Real Hurriyat”. The split reportedly came after Mirwaiz had addressed a letter to the Convener of Hurriyat in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK), Yousuf Naseem, asking him not to entertain these leaders as part of Hurriyat.

    State assembly elections are due in J and K in October 2014. Peoples’ Conference has decided to contest elections. It’s Chairman Sajjad Gani Lone while admitting the role of militants in Kashmir said that people in Kashmir want a negotiated settlement. So far Hurriyat has not shown its willingness to join the election fray but a positive statement was made by one of the senior Hurriyat leader, Abdul Gani Bhat, saying that extremism does not play a positive role in the South Asian region as both India and Pakistan are in possession of nuclear weapons. While Congress and National Conference alliance is likely to continue, there are reports that Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) may join hands with BJP after the elections if the latter wins sizeable seats in Jammu region. People in Kashmir are watching the victory of Aam Admi Party (AAP) in Delhi with great enthusiasm. The AAP has also started its membership drive in the state.

    The year 2014 will throw up challenges for Kashmir with the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan. The Taliban’s continuing presence in south-east and eastern parts of Afghanistan and the alliances it has with the Haqqani Network and other terrorist groups in Pakistan pose a serious threat of increased radicalism in Pakistan with a consequent effect on India particularly in Kashmir. The Taliban and its allies can not only launch attacks in India or Indian interests in the region but also spearhead the growth of Salafism in the sub-continent. It may be mentioned that Al Qaeda, the Taliban as also Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have declared their intentions to target India. As the LeT has been closely being watched by the world community after the 26/11 attacks, it is likely that ISI may put Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) to activate jihad in Kashmir. JeM chief Mohammad Azhar who has been keeping a low profile, has been closely associated with Al Qaeda and Taliban. It is in this context the Army Chief, General Bikram Singh has justified the presence of Army personnel in the state on the grounds that there were reports warning of “spillover from Afghanistan in J&K in 2014 after the withdrawal of US troops.” Moreover, 42 training camps including 25 in PoK are still active in Pakistan where 2500 militants belonging to LeT, JeM, HuJI and HM are undergoing training. As of now there are about 200 militants active in Kashmir. According to Director General of Police, J and K Ashok Prasad, these militants have started targeting security forces in the state as part of their changed strategy to increase the violence graph, which has witnessed steep decline in the last four years as only 130 militancy related incidents were reported in 2013.



    Land Borders - Pushpita Das

    Trends in 2013

    Two contradictory trends were observed along the country’s land borders in the year 2013. While on one hand incidences of cross-border firing, infiltrations attempts and intrusions had increased remarkably leading to tensions and insecurity, on the other, cross-border trade registered substantial upsurge both in terms of volume and value. 2013 also witnessed concrete institutional measures being put in place to reduce frictions along India’s land borders as well as to boost cross-border trade.

    As stated above, security situations along India-Pakistan border [both International Boundary (IB) in Jammu and the Line of Control (LoC)], the Line of Actual Control (LoAC) along India-China and India-Myanmar border deteriorated. Along the India-Pakistan border, there were 196 cases of ceasefire violations in 2013 as compared to 93 in 2012. Similarly, the IB recorded 149 cases of trans-border firing by Pakistani Rangers. The LoAC also remained tensed throughout the year with reports of frequent transgressions by the Peoples’ Liberation Army (PLA) into Indian territory. One such transgression by the PLA in Depsang bulge area in Daulet Beg Oldie sector in April resulted in a 21 days standoff between the armies of the two countries. Even the hitherto ‘peaceful’ India-Myanmar border experienced moments of disturbances when in August 2013 Myanmar’s army tried to set up camps inside Indian territory and local people protested against the construction of border fences in Manipur.

    Given the frequent cross-border firings and intrusions, which created huge political and diplomatic unease between India and its neighbours, measures were taken to resolve these issues through interactions and dialogues. Thus, on October 23rd, India and China signed the Border Defence Cooperation Agreement (BDCA) to strengthen peace and stability at the border. The BDCA, inter alia, stipulates periodic meetings at various levels to ensure better flow of information and understandings among the border guarding forces of India and China. Similarly, the institutional mechanism of meeting of the Director Generals of Military Operations (DGsMOs) of India and Pakistan which had lain defunct for 15 years was revived and the DGsMOs of the two countries met on December 24th to discuss the issue of ceasefire violations along the LoC.

    Despite tensions at the borders, cross-border trade-both border trade and overland normal trade registered impressive growth in 2013. The inclusion of 12 additional items to the import list in 2012 resulted in increased border trade across India-China border. While at Nathu La trade increased by 23 per cent, at Shipki La it registered a growth of 380 per cent with a total turnover of Rs. 5.33 crore. Similarly, efficient functioning of the integrated check posts (ICP) at Attari and the opening of the ICP at Agartala in November 2013 boosted overland trade between India-Pakistan and India-Bangladesh considerably. Buoyed by such encouraging trends, Meghalaya and Tripura proposed opening up of more border haats with Bangladesh.

    On the flip side, smuggling of contraband such as cattle, drugs and narcotics have shown increasing trends across all the borders. For instances, along India-Bangladesh border contraband worth Rs. 16234 lakh was confiscated in 2013 compared to Rs. 10329 Lakhs in 2012. The corresponding figures for India-Nepal border were Rs. 10153 lakh and Rs. 3847 lakh respectively.

    Expected Trends in 2014

    • The LoC and the IB in Jammu will witness increasing attempts of infiltration by terrorists fuelled by the proposed withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan and the expected diversion of Jihadis to Kashmir by Pakistan. As a result incidences of ceasefire violations along the LoC and IB will also rise in 2014. The effectiveness of the DGsMOs meetings which has been revived in 2013 will be severely tested under these circumstances.
    • The LoAC will also continue to experience transgressions by the PLA, but these incidents might not result in prolonged standoffs between India and China as witnessed in April 2013 because even though they cannot prevent transgressions, the mechanisms set up under the BACD are expected to resolve such issues at the local levels itself.
    • With the Border Security Force (BSF) taking over the Myanmar border from the Assam Rifles, it is expected that security situation along this international border shall gradually improve in 2014.
    • The construction of fences and roads along the India-Pakistan and India-Bangladesh borders will not be completed in 2014 as expected given that forest clearances and other issues continue to delay the implementation of these projects.
    • Smuggling of contraband and trafficking of drugs, narcotics and arms will continue, but cases of seizures of contraband are expected to go up as well given the strengthening of border guarding along India-Nepal and India-Myanmar borders.
    • Over land trade with Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal is expected to grow considerably in 2014 as new ICPs will be inaugurated and existing ones will continue to function efficiently. However, if the domestic political situation in Bangladesh deteriorates, it would have an adverse effect not only on the peace and tranquillity at the border but also on the bilateral trade.


    Naxalism - P. V. Ramana

    Trends in 2013

    The year past (2013) has reported comparatively fewer fatalities in Naxalite violence than in the past three years (2010-2012), as the following table indicates.

    Parameter

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    Incidents

    2213

    1760

    1415

    1076

    Civilians Killed

    720

    469

    301

    267

    SF Killed

    285

    142

    114

    114

    Naxals Killed

    172

    99

    74

    99

    Total Fatalities

    1177

    710

    489

    480

    Note: Data for 2013 till December 15
    Source: Ministry of Home Affairs, New Delhi

    Thus the total number of fatalities has been 1177 in 2010, 710 in 2011, 489 in 2012 and 480 in 2013. This reduction in the violence profile could be attributed to two factors: increased security force (SF) operations and a tactical retreat by the Naxalites/Maoists. Besides, as the Prime Minister noted at the Annual Conference of Director Generals of Police, on November 23, 2013, the reduction in violence: “… is a result of the combined efforts of the Central and State Governments and is a really encouraging development. It is important that we don’t let up on our efforts to root out the menace of naxalism and continue to build on our successes.”

    Significantly, elections to the Legislative Assembly of Chhattisgarh, the hot-bed of Maoist activities, were conducted rather peacefully and successfully with stray incidents of violence. The polling percentage, too, was quite high. In this context the Prime Minister said: [it] clearly underlines the faith of the local population in processes of our functioning democracy.”

    There have been continued efforts by the Maoists to expand their urban presence and network. For instance, Prashant Rahi, an Electrical Engineer by training, and Hem Mishra, a former student, were arrested in September and August, respectively, in the year past, by Gadchiroli Police, Mahrashtra, for allegedly functioning as couriers between the Maoists and their urban front-men. The police, according to media reports, claimed that “the [two] were involved in expanding Maoists’ urban base”.

    Responding to a question in the Lok Sabha, on August 13, 2013, the Minister of State for Home Affairs maintained that the Maoists said: “… the ‘front organizations’ of the banned CPI (Maoist) party as well as organizations sympathetic to the said outfit have been supporting the cause of the workers employed in factories. Their objective is essentially to exploit the situation to gain a foot-hold among the working class… Briefly stated, the strategy for urban areas of the country includes mobilization and organization of the working classes, building a united front of classes similarly placed to the working classes and military tactics involving sabotage actions and select assassinations by ‘action teams’.” He, however, went on to add: “till now, they have failed to make any significant headway in the urban areas of India”.

    Further, a number of Maoist front organizations are reported to be active in various parts of the country, especially in towns and cities (urban areas). Thus according to a media report of October 7, 2013, the government has identified 128 front organizations. The media report further added that “17 such organizations [are] operating in Jharkhand, 13 in Andhra Pradesh, 12 in Karnataka, 10 each in Bihar and Odisha, nine each in Delhi, Maharashtra and [West] Bengal, eight in Haryana, six in Chhattisgarh, four each in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu and six in Gujarat.”

    A significant development towards the end of the year was the surrender of Gumudavelli Venkata Krishna Prasad @ Gudsa Usendi, a native of Warangal district, Andhra Pradesh, who was the spokesperson of the fiercest guerrilla zone of the Maoists, the Dandakaranya Special Zone (DKSZ). He carried a reward of Rs 20 lakh.

    As the General Elections to the Lok Sabha draw closer in 2014, the Maoists might possibly escalate violence and might execute some spectacular action because it would give them publicity, as they have done in the past. The determination of the various State governments and of the Union government would play a significant role in addressing the Maoist challenge. The security forces would need to not let their guard down in fighting the Maoists. At the same time, as the Prime Minister noted on November 23, 2013: “we also have to improve the quality of governance and the pace of development in the naxal-affected areas. I would also like to emphasize here the need to maintain the centrality of the local police forces in any anti-naxal operation and the need to sensitize the security forces being inducted into any of the naxal-affected areas to the socio-cultural practices of the local people.”



    Northeast India - Namrata Goswami

    Trends in 2013

    Located in the cusp of Bangladesh, Bhutan, China and Myanmar and home to various ethnic communities, Northeast India is one of the most panoramic and strategic landscape of India. The significance of this region has only grown over the years with its land linkages to Southeast Asia, and the 1, 080 km disputed border that it shares with China.

    The year 2013 witnessed some significant developments in this region, which had both regional and strategic implications.

    China-India Border Dispute and Arunachal Pradesh: China claims the northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh as its territory. There are two aspects to this claim. The first is directly connected to the issue of the Tawang monastery which being the second most important monastery has resonance for China’s legitimacy over Tibet. The second is the issue of diverting the river Brahmaputra (Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet), which would stress the people of Northeast India who depend on this river for transport and other livelihood issues. Intrusions by China across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Arunachal Pradesh were reported in 2013. In October 2013, a Border Defence Cooperation Agreement (BDCA) was signed between China and India during the visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to China.2 Both sides agreed to refrain from military offensives at the border and share information on military exercises near the LAC through regular border personnel meetings. It however remains to be seen whether the BDCA would put a stop to intrusions in 2014 given the differing perceptions of the LAC.

    Assam: Talks were held between the Union and Assam governments and the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) in 2013 in which the Union government agreed to address one of the core demands of the outfit, namely the granting of Scheduled Tribe (ST) status to five communities in Assam: Moran, Motok, Chutia, Koch-Rajbongshi and Tai-Ahom. ST status guarantees land rights and reserved seats in the Assam state assembly to these communities. Two other issues that the peace talks generated was the granting of work permits to Bangladeshi immigrants settled in Assam, as well as not granting citizenship to their children by birth. These issues have political and social resonance in Assam as the issue of illegal Bangladeshi migration into Assam is a thorny issue for the state. However, 2013 also witnessed voices raised against the ULFA by the Terror Victim’s Forum (TVF), an organization that showcases the plight of victims of the insurgency. The TVF does not support general amnesty for the ULFA, culpable in crimes that killed their family members. Instead, they want the leaders and cadres to be tried in court and duly punished under the law. 2013 also reflected a growing discontentment within the pro-talk ULFA with middle rung leaders and cadres accusing Rajkhowa of failing to keep the peace talks with the government transparent. This includes leaders of the 28th battalion who have expressed unhappiness with the secrecy maintained by Rajkhowa and the Central Committee about the peace talks with the state. There is also growing demand to extradite Anup Chetia from Bangladesh. The other significant obstacle that the peace talks faced in 2013 was the non-involvement of Paresh Barua and the anti-talk faction of the outfit despite Assam Governor J B Patnaik stating in September 2013 that Paresh Barua should come for talks. This issue will continue to limit the effectiveness and legitimacy of the talks in 2014.

    The Assam-Nagaland border remained tensed in 2013 due to the violent altercations between the ethnic communities living at the border villages. December 2013 witnessed clashes between the Rengma Nagas and the Karbis after 9 decomposed bodies of Karbi men were found near Dimapur, one of whom was a Karbi student leader. The cycle of retaliatory violence appeared to be provoked by the targeting of the Rengma Nagas by Karbi militants in Karbi Anglong district. This is a negative development between two communities that have lived together for decades without violence. This episode will now become a part of ethnic historical memory and could cause more tensions in 2014 unless there is a community approach developed to talk to each other.

    Manipur: Manipur continued to remain violence affected in 2013. In order to address this issue, Memorandum of Understandings (MoUs) was signed between the Manipur state government and three militant groups: Kangleipak Communist Party-Nongdreinkhomba (KCP-N), Kuki National Liberation Front (KNLF) and the Kuki Revolutionary Party (KRP). By signing the MoUs, the three armed groups agreed to give up arms and start peace talks on September 9, 2013. The MoUs were however limited to these three groups and dominant armed groups in Manipur especially the United National Liberation Front of Manipur (UNLF), the People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK), the People’s Liberation Army of Manipur (PLA) and its political wing, the Revolutionary People’s Front (RPF) were not a part of the process. Violent differences continued between the National Socialist Council of Nagalim led by Isak Chisi Sw---NSCN (IM) and the Meitei armed groups, with little meeting ground. The differences between the armed groups, as well as the inability of state forces to incentivize the three dominant Meitei armed groups to come for peace talks will continue to result in violence in Manipur in 2014.

    Nagaland: Peace talks between the NSCN (IM) and the Union government continued in 2013. However, an increasing trend was the growing anger of local Naga populations at the extortion networks ran by the armed groups in Nagaland resulting in a refusal to pay. This saw coercive methods employed by the NSCN (IM), in which two Sumi Naga women were allegedly molested, resulting in the powerful Sumi Hoho cutting off ties with the NSCN (IM). This trend will continue in 2014 only vindicating the fact that state law enforcement agencies need to get their act together and ensure that such extortion networks cannot function with impunity.

    Look East Policy: India’s look east policy and the importance of Northeast got a booster in 2013 when representatives from Southeast Asian nations participated in a two day North East business summit in Dibrugarh in November 2013. The High Commissioner of Brunei, Darussalam and chairman of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Dato Paduka Haji Sidek Ali,) stated in his valedictory address that only connectivity and easy access to markets and investments could bolster the trade and commerce activities in the Northeast. The summit addressed issues of agriculture, management and tourism in which Northeast and ASEAN could successfully collaborate. Land connectivity through Myanmar was stressed and the political reform and re-entry of the United States into Myanmar significantly alters the strategic landscape for Northeast India given the proximity of China to this region and the geo-political competition for influence that the US and China are involved in. This trend towards opening up, speedy development of the tri-lateral highway, and higher levels of trade with continue in 2014. One however has to be mindful of the armed ethnic conflicts in Myanmar, the flow of drugs and arms from there to Northeast India, and the closeness of China to some of the Myanmar armed groups, in order to get a deeper strategic sense of how the opening up may have dual consequences for Northeast, both positive and negative. Enhancing the positives and mitigating the negatives will remain a challenge for India in 2014.



    Terrorism and Radicalisation in India - Anshuman Behera

    Trends in 2013

    A number of trends were witnessed so far terrorism and radicalisation in India are concerned in 2013. Most of the terror strikes in 2013 were carried out by Indian Mujahideen (IM). IM is considered to be the most lethal and one of the biggest threats to the internal security of India. In 2013, the law enforcement agencies were successful in arresting a number of terrorists and there was a sign of international cooperation in regard to counter-terrorism measures of India. Growing communal violence incidents in some parts of India remained a major challenge to the internal security. Taking these developments into consideration, some of the important trends in 2013 are as follows:

    Rise of terror attacks was one of the major trends in 2013. These attacks were mostly carried out by IM. The important attacks included: a bomb blast at Dilsukhnagar area of Hyderabad on February 21, 2013 which killed 17 people and injured over 30 people; a series of bomb blasts in Patna, Bihar during a political rally on October 27, 2013; a series of bomb blasts inside a Buddhist temple in Bodh Gaya, Bihar on July 7, 2013 and a bomb blast outside the office of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on April 17, 2013.

    Home grown terror outfits like IM showed its ideological inclination towards global and larger jihadi projects. A series of bomb blast that the IM engineered inside a Buddhist Temple in Bodh Gaya was in retaliation to the ‘atrocities’ against the Muslims in Myanmar. This was an act of showing solidarity with the Muslims in Myanmar. There are reports indicating that the IM developed links with larger terror outfits such as Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Inter- Services Intelligence (ISI), Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B) and some other insurgent groups like the People’s Liberation Army of Manipur. Apart from its links with other terror groups, the IM also received substantial support from some constituencies in foreign countries such as Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE).

    Rise in Recruitment and radicalisation of youth was witnessed in 2013. Reports indicated that the terror outfits like IM were on a recruitment spree of Muslim youths to join them. The IM developed a number of modules to carry out its terror activities. Some of the important modules responsible for terror strikes in 2013 were Darbhanga module, Ranchi module and Kerala module.

    Apart from terror activities, rise of communal violence was one of the major trends in 2013. Communal violence incidents between the Hindus and Muslims in Kishtwar, Jammu (July-August 2013), and in Muzaffarnagar (August-December 2013) were important to mention. These communal incidents have the potential to polarize the society, ultimately leading to radicalisation and furthering violence.

    So far the counter-terrorism measures of the Government are concerned following trends are important to mention.

    One of the major trends regarding counter-terrorism measures is better coordination among the security agencies. In 2013 the National Investigation Agency (NIA) and various security establishments had been able to arrest over a dozen terrorists who included some of the important kingpins such as Yasin Bhatkal and Asadullah Akhtar of IM on August 28, and Abdul Karim Tunda of LeT on August 17. Effective and positive cooperation from foreign countries was one of the major factors for the above mentioned arrests. Support from Saudi Arabia, UAE and Nepal in this regard proved critical.

    2014

    Following trends can be speculated in 2014:

    • Radicalisation of youth will continue to be a major challenge. Factors such as polarization of society on communal lines will fuel radicalisation.
    • Terror outfits like IM will strive for more assistance and support from foreign countries. Attempts at terror strikes will be made despite the arrest of Yasin Bhatkal. It is believed that Tehsen Akthar (one of the closest aide of Yasin Bhatkal) has been given the responsibilities that Yasin Bhatkal used to look after.
    • Riyaz Bhatkal and Iqbal Bhatkal will continue to plan for terror operations within India from Pakistan.
    • The LeT will spread its tentacles to major parts of India beyond Jammu and Kashmir (J&K).
    • Radical outfits such as Popular Front of India (PFI), Karnataka Forum for Dignity (KFD), etc may play important roles in catering to the needs of IM and LeT.
    • There may rise a need for better cooperation among the South Asian states (especially between India and Pakistan) to curb terrorism post United States withdrawal.

    The authors of this Issue Brief are members of the Internal Security Centre, IDSA.

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