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The Domestic Determinants of Iran's Foreign Policy: The Illusion of Consensus October 21, 2010 Mahan Abedin Fellows' Seminar

Chairperson: Shri Rajiv Sikri
Discussants: Cdr. (Retd) M. R. Khan and Prof. Gulshan Dietl

Mr Mahan Abedin, visiting fellow, introduced his paper by highlighting the significance of studying the foreign policy making process in Iran as it is rising as a regional power. He began by mentioning a note of caution that this academic exercise constituted a unique challenge since the Iranian foreign policy is mired in profound ideological, political and institutional complexities.

Describing the Western and Iranian scholars’ approach to study Iran’s foreign policy making process, the presenter pointed out that while the Western scholars contend that all things being equal, Iranian policy is “rational”, in as much as it is the product of a laborious analytical and consultative process. On the other hand, the Iranian scholars are less concerned with the actual policies than with the ideological, political and cultural determinants that shape foreign policy formulation in Iran. However, both approaches yield suboptimal levels of understanding. He stated that both create a distorted panorama of the Iran’s foreign policy vision and aspirations.

Contrary to the Western notion of “consensus”, Mr Abedin argued that the process of foreign policy making process in Iran is considerably more complex; that consensus is either lacking or where it is achieved, it is at an unacceptably high price. Moreover, the actual policies often reflect the tensions and divisions bedevilling the Iranian elite, leading foremost to inadequate implementation. However, he stated that Iran has made huge inroads in relatively non-contentious foreign policy areas, namely in the region where it is steadily emerging as the dominant power. But now it is faced with a hostile global climate, an outcome that is directly tied to the Iran’s antagonistic relationship with the West.

In the second part of the presentation, he spoke about the ideological, political, and institutional construction of Iranian foreign policy making process. Outlining the ideological context of foreign policy, he said that the Islamic Revolution of 1979 dramatically altered the tone and rhetoric of its foreign policy and since then its foreign policy towards many of the countries remained relatively unchanged. He pointed out that faced with the ambitions of a revolutionary Islamic ideology engaged in the relentless pursuit of re-ordering Iran’s relations with the major world powers, Iranian scholars have struggled to embed the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy within a national framework. He added that still, a very small number of scholars have attempted a more innovative approach, namely to weave together the competing and conflicting ideational and ideological strands of foreign policy thinking since the Islamic Revolution.

So far as the efforts to re-define the pan-Islamic aspirations of the post-revolutionary Iranian state is concerned, more than thirty years of the Islamic Revolution, it has failed to adequately define its national interests according to a consensual set of ideological and conceptual norms. He held that the complexity is not merely about the inclusion of pan-Islamic themes that tend to complicate foreign policy thinking but it is also about the attempts to redefine the national interests along revolutionary lines, which necessarily requires a radically new theoretical model for engaging with the major powers, particularly the US. The confusion also prevails among its diplomatic and the wider foreign policy establishment over the nature and extent of the pan-Islamic policies to be pursued.

The author said that although there are over one hundred officially registered political parties in Iran, the party system is very weak. The majority of political parties do not represent any identifiable socio-economic interests. However, three reformist parties i.e. a) the Islamic Iran Participation Front, b) the Mojahedin of the Islamic Revolution, and c) the National Trust Party are in particular recognised as genuine since they represent broad and identifiable political and ideological interests. He held that in the absence of a strong party-based system, factions have filled the political vacuum in Iran. In the sphere of Iran’s foreign policy, three factions i.e. “Principalists”, “Practicalists” and “Reformists” have an impact on Iran’s external conduct.

On the role of the Iranian institutional system in foreign policy making process, Mr Abedin said that the post-revolutionary Iranian foreign, defence and intelligence systems are rich with institutions and these play important role in policy making, particularly in comparison with the pre-revolutionary order. Besides, the leadership (Valiy-e-Faqih), the Supreme National Security Council, the Islamic Consultative Assembly (National Parliament), the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and the State Expediency Discernment Council are the other key institutions which play essential role in foreign policy formulation and implementation processes. He held that the existence of such an elaborate system often leads to the marginalisation of the foreign ministry as the country’s main foreign policy centre. Moreover, the prevailing institutional complexity is partly a product of ideological confusion and the lack of a disciplined party-based political system. Therefore, the profound philosophical and ideological contradictions that go the very heart of the Iranian system have penetrated into every institution, the net result of which is lack of consensus on a broad range of domestic and external issues.

He pointed out that Iran’s foreign policy in the region is very successful in pursuing its national interests in the context of Islamic revolutionary beliefs and values. However, ideology has been a major constraint on its foreign policy outside the region, as evidenced by the volatile relationship with the West. But it is enormously problematic to label Iran’s foreign policy as “Islamic” or even “Ideological”, in the light of the profound sense of expediency and flexibility that informs the decisions of Iran’s rulers and their policy makers. Iran has chosen its ideological conflicts selectively, basing its calculus on issues and determinants that maximise its influence and power in the region. The opposition to Israel is best seen in this context. At the end, he said that any initiative to improve the foreign policy making process in Iran would do well to focus on the ideology, politics and the institutional setup. Finally, he concluded by suggesting that Iranian strategists and policy makers would benefit from the formulation of a clear and comprehensive national security doctrine. In addition, the recognition of the role of the Civil Society in shaping foreign policy will reduce the more harmful effects in foreign policy and will also help to align the country’s political society with the national security establishment.

Cdr (Retd) M. R. Khan, citing various articles of the Iranian constitution, said that the very basis of Iran’s foreign policy consensus is based on its Islamic outlook. In this context, he referred to Article 152 which deals with the rejection of all forms of domination and the preservation of the independence of the country in all respects and its territorial integrity; Article 153 which deals with “no foreign control”; Article 154 which deals with “Independence, Support of Just Struggles” and other such constitutional provisions. This reflects Iran’s regional as well as outside regional foreign policy, Cdr Khan said. Speaking on the geopolitical advantages of Iran and its possession of critical natural resources like Oil and Gas, he said that in the past, Iran faced threats from both West and North and when Soviet Union liquidated, threats from north disappeared. However, it still faces threats from the West. He opined that because of Iran’s demographic and geopolitical advantages, it feels that it should get primacy not only in the region but also outside.

Prof. Gulshan Dietl suggested the presenter to improve the paper by incorporating more sources from books and documents. Prof. Dietl also suggested for using more Persian language in the paper to provide an inclusive Iranian perception of foreign policy making. She said that in a democratic country, factions play important role in shaping foreign policy of the country and these factions should be carefully analysed in the context of Iran. She added that to assess the role of the leader (Valiy-e-Faqih) in Iran’s foreign policy making process, the author need to better analyse and relate the role of the Supreme National Security Council.

Wg Cdr. V. Krishnappa said that Iran is a most important player in the region and it aspiring to play the ideological role. The ideological battle between Iran and other regional actors is going on since a long time in search of playing this role. On nationalism and pursuing national interests, he said that the factions are playing crucial role in Iran in shaping its foreign policy making. He, however, said that differences between various factions and political parties are inherent as the foreign policy making process is inherently a very complex process. In this context, he cited Jawaharlal Nehru’s Non-alignment policy and said that even Nehru’s NAM policy came under criticism. He said that on many of the issues that the author presented such as role of ideology, political actors, institutions etc there is lack of coherence and suggested the author to improve on this. He also suggested of studying Iran’s strategic behaviour for better understanding its foreign policy in the context of its security and ideological dimension.

Mr S. Samuel C. Rajiv said that by framing the three level of analysis for studying Iran’s foreign policy making process the author have done good job. He held that consensus on policy issues always do not lead to rational decision making. However, Iran is very successful in its regional foreign policy where general consensus is built but not at large levels. He suggested that the role of public opinion, think tanks etc. should be involved in the foreign policy making process for more democratisation of policy making process.

Discussion

  • One participant asked Mr Abedin that how he would differentiate between the domestic factors (religion and politics) and international factors (Nuclear, Gulf, and the West) which lead to the articulation of Iran’s foreign policy.
  • Iran views growing power and influence of Israel in the region as a security threat and there is a domestic consensus in Iran on its containment policy towards Israel.
  • One commentator asked for elaboration on how Iran defines its national interests.
  • Another participant wanted to know about the Iran’s perceptions about India’s rising power and its growing role in the West Asia.
  • What is the domestic consensus on Iran’s nuclear energy policy? How do they view the Western perspectives on Iran’s nuclear policy? How they are going to resolve this problem?
  • How different political parties view Iran’s role as a regional actor?
  • There are different points of view in Iran on various domestic factors which influence its policy making process. What are the main domestic determinants of Iran’s foreign policy?

Chairperson’s Remarks

There is insufficient understanding outside Iran on how its foreign policy is made. He appreciated for having a stimulated and spirited discussion on this subject. He said that the author has made a good attempt to explain the political structures in Iran’s foreign policy making process. It is also a clear attempt to look at Iran as first a rationalist and then Islamist state. He stated that Iran has regional aspirations and the real issue at present is the place of Iran in the region as a regional power. After Afghanistan and Iraq war, the West is now after Iran. On its role in Iraq and Afghanistan, dialogue is resuming with the West, particularly with the US. He hoped that there will be some settlement on Iran’s regional role. Finally, he said that Islamic character of Iran is as important as the national character of it and he felt that there is need to do more research on this subject. He concluded by thanking the gatherings for having a constructive engagement.

Report prepared by Dr Saroj Bishoyi, Research Assistant, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi

Africa, Latin America, Caribbean & UN
Assessing China's Behaviour September 06, 2010 1030 hrs Round Table

Venue: Seminar Hall 1, IDSA
Chairperson: Shri K. Subrahmanyam

East Asia
13th Asian Security Conference on "Towards A New Asian Order" February 16, 2011 to February 18, 2011 Conference
Asian Security Conference
The Long View from Delhi August 18, 2010 1000 to 1230 hrs Book Discussion Forum

Venue: Seminar Hall 1, IDSA

PROGRAMME

10.00-10.30 AM: Registration & Coffee

10.30-11.30 AM: BOOK DISCUSSION

Introductory Remarks
Brig Gurmeet Kanwal (Retd), Director, Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS)

Presentation of the book by the authors:
Rear Admiral K Raja Menon (Retd), Distinguished Fellow, IPCS
Dr. Rajiv Kumar, Director & CE, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)

Remarks by the Discussant:
Dr. Sumit Ganguly, Visiting Fellow, IDSA

Comments by Shri K Subrahmanyam, Distinguished Defence Analyst

11.35 AM- 12.30 PM: Q&A

12.30 PM: Dispersal

India's Foreign Policy in the Globalising World August 18, 2010 3:30 PM Round Table

Speaker: Dr. Arvind Virmani
Venue: Room No.005, IDSA

Chinese Oil and Gas Pipelines and Sea Routes October 29, 2010 P. K. Gautam Fellows' Seminar

Col P. K. Gautam (Retd) Research Fellow presented his paper, Chinese Oil and Gas Pipelines and Sea Routes, on 29th October 2010. Dr. Arvind Gupta Chaired the session. Mr. V. Raghuraman and Cdr Agnihotri, IN were external discussants and Miss. Shebonti Ray Dadwal and Cdr. Sarabjeet Parmar, IN were the internal discussants.

Highlights from the paper

Due to its rising economy, China’s imports of hydrocarbons are growing rapidly. Therefore, worried with growing dependence on imports, with a consequence on domestic policies and strategic stability, China is pursuing policies to alleviate the increase in import dependence by diversifying the sources and routes of its overall energy imports. China’s quest for energy routes security has led to its policies on oil and gas routes and pipelines as a reflection of geopolitics and foreign policy of the country. Therefore the core focus of the paper is on the current and future developments in Chinese hydrocarbon pipelines and sea routes strategy.

The paper is based on two assumptions; a) oil and gas will continue to be the affordable fuels of choice b) as oil is import sensitive, the main policy focus in China will be on oil. Col Gautam argued that oil and gas pipelines and routes define geo-economic relationship between countries and regions. The paper attempts to discern the security and strategic discourse in the unfolding of land and sea routes of oil and gas.

With overall increase in energy consumption, share of imports is going to rise from 50percent to 80percent as far as China’s national oil requirement is concerned. China also plans to double the usage of gas as a source of energy by 2015 from the 2008 levels. At present 80 percent of Chinese oil is imported via sea and about 40 percent through Malacca straits. Saudi Arabia (20 percent), Angola (17 percent), Iran (12 percent), Oman (8 percent), Russia (7 percent), Sudan (6 percent), Venezuela (4 percent), Kuwait (3 percent), Kazakhstan (3percent), UAE (3 percent) and others (17 percent) are China’s top crude suppliers. Russia, Australia, Iran and Qatar are the principle suppliers of LNG.

At present, in Myanmar dual pipelines for oil and gas transfers is under construction. Gwadar might become the destination for refining imports from Iran to be sent via pipeline to China but it looks like this only remains an idea and not feasible as such due to terrain and costs. There are various other issues involved. Building the Strategic Oil Reserves capacity of 90 days imports by 2015 is a Chinese aim as it prepares for resource wars scenarios. In addition The Chinese Navy – will become a blue water navy in the next 2 decades and also it will have national tanker fleet- over 50 percent soon due to its good shipbuilding industry. The scenario of arctic meltdown, by which hydrocarbon energy could be sent using new routes has important implications for the future of china’s energy strategy.

Learning from the Chinese strategy, several policy suggestions can be made;
1. Energy diplomacy for diversification of sources,
2. National Carrier Fleet- profit in peacetime,
3. Nodal Ministry for energy security,
4. Clear policy on strategic oil reserves,
5. Development of Arctic capable fleet,
6. Using the maritime advantage for energy trade,
7. Development of efficient technologies to reduce import strain.

Discussion points

  • Coal would remain one of the most important energy resources for India; therefore, along with China and United States, India would continue to scramble for coal resource. However, China with its present governance structure with no political checks and balances has an upper hand in exploiting coal reserves worldwide. Africa is now under the Chinese exploitation umbrella and over 97 percent of rare earth is being made in China only to control the metallurgy industry of the world.
  • China is looking at Caspian reserves this shows not only market economics but also a strategic vision. India must strengthen is capacity not only for ensuring continuous supply of oil during peak oil requirements but also engage in oil diplomacy with a long term vision of future requirements.
  • The potential for conflict exists if sufficient and affordable alternatives to hydrocarbons are not found. In such a situation, the lines of supply will get taut, supply shrink and tensions will rise. Purely from conflict prevention point of view, carbon free energy technologies need to be given a renewed priority, not only to mitigate climate change but violent conflicts.
  • India must also diversify its sources of oil supply and must move from the Straits of Hormuz and build stronger relations with Africa. A strong public-private partnership in India is required to enable efficacious transnational pipeline.
  • Renewable energy sources like ethanol and bio diesel, wind and solar are high on the India’s national agenda. In India, shale deposits are found across the Gangetic plain, Assam, Rajasthan and many coastal areas therefore India must capitalize on this important resource.
  • There wee different viewpoints on role of surface and submarines in interdicting or securing SLOC and an Arctic capability for Indian maritime interests in the long run
  • Cooperation is the key in transboundary energy pipelines and the most workable and practical option.
  • Arctic route for oil supply is not feasible for India because it does not have any commercial or security links in the region.

(Report prepared by Avinash Godbole and S. Sasikumar, Research Assistant, IDSA)

Non-Traditional Security
Developments in Pakistan occupied Kashmir: Options for India August 19, 2010 1000 to 1330 hrs Round Table

Venue: Room No: 005, IDSA

Tentative Programme

1000-1030 hrs
Introduction
Presentation on Developments in PoK

1030-1330 hrs
Current Developments in PoK and Options for India
Chair: Riyaz Punjabi

1330 hrs LUNCH

South Asia https://idsa.in/system/files/Concept_Note_PoK_RT_Final.pdf
Project Management in Border Roads Organisation and related Management Concerns September 10, 2010 Narinder Gupta Fellows' Seminar

Chairperson: Shri Amiya Kumar Ghosh
Discussants: Shri T P Velayudhan and Shri K K Y Mahinderkar

The infrastructure development in border areas is very important to bolster troop mobility and logistics supply. Realising the need for creation of a single entity for development of road network in far flung and backward areas of western and eastern sectors of the country Border Roads Organisation (BRO) was established in 1960 with the Director General Border Roads as the executive head. Since then the BRO has been engaged with the development of new roads, maintenance of existing roads, construction and maintenance of bridges, border fencing, snow clearance operations to keep the airfields, passes and roads open for maximum period of the year to enable the Army to perform their role effectively and unhindered. The contribution provided by the BRO to maintain and create connectivity to keep the mobility is immense. However, in the process of discharging the assigned role BRO faces several management challenges. Cost and time overrun has been identified by the presenter as the most persistent management concern of the BRO.

The factors leading to time and cost overrun issue, according to the speaker include line function set up for construction and supervision; diversification of the services in wide spread areas; lack of technical soundness and correct estimation, execution methodology, incorrect and unrealistic technical approach, loose financial control, underutilization of manpower resources or non utilization of technical manpower; underutilization or non utilization of the costly equipments; lack of airlift support system. Most of these factors are internal to the organization. There are some external factors as well leading to time and cost overrun, such as land acquisition problems, problems of payment of land compensation, delays in wild life clearance, forest clearance, rising cost of construction materials, unfavourable climatic conditions, nature of terrain, extent of rainfall and snowfall, natural calamities like floods and changing course of rivers, extremely hot climate and shifting dunes and dust storms in Rajasthan, rarified atmosphere in high altitude areas, limited working season, insurgency, inhospitable conditions, shortages of hired labour etc. .

According to the speaker the process of preparation of works plan needs improvement. In any planning process at the time of its formulation, the aspects of manpower planning and resource and logistics plan should be given utmost priority. Some of the internal and external factors are controllable by proper project management approach. However, there are some factors which are beyond the control of the organisation. Therefore, there is a need to address both types of concerns by adopting a balanced approach and through proper assessment of external factors before initiating execution of any project. Hence there is a need to review the entire system of plan preparation in BRO. Further the creation of large number of jobs needs to be avoided to devote scarce resources to priority sector job, according to the speaker.

External Discussant

Both the external discussants have agreed that the time and cost overrun is a major problem of the BRO. However, they felt that a holistic approach is required to analyse the factors leading to time and cost overrun problem. Humane and socio-economic issues involved in border road construction are discussed at length. Both the discussants have brought out the fact that agency and deposit work can not be avoided. There is a healthy match between Agency and General Staff work. Though outsourcing is recognized an essential alternative to supplement the limited departmental capability of BRO, the inherent risk factor associated with outsourcing was discussed. One of the external discussants has discussed the organizational complexities and labour problem in length. He has brought out the fact that due to various lucrative schemes available at the state level like NREGA, BRO no longer attracts labour to work in the border areas under extreme condition. He feels inclusion of these complex issues would enrich the paper.

Internal Discussants

Command and control is identified as an important problem by one of the internal discussants. According to him recruitment of technically competent people and proper supervision can reduce cost overrun to a large extent. Structuring aspect of the paper was discussed by the other internal discussant.

General Discussion

It came out very well at the end of the discussion that BRO is working under extreme condition. On the issue of outsourcing when one participant felt that BRO should outsource its work to giants like L&T, another felt that outsourcing is a partial solution to the problem. The system needs be thoroughly reviewed to rectify the weaknesses. The ecological aspect was also touched upon by one participant.

Chair’s Summary

The chair concluded that BRO is challenged by several problems apart from time and cost overrun. BRO regulations are outdated and they need to be re-looked and reviewed.

Report Prepared by Gulbin Sultana, Research Assistant, IDSA

Defence Economics & Industry
Round Table with Ms Michele Flournoy, US Undersecretary of Defence for Policy August 10, 2010 Round Table

US Undersecretary of Defence for Policy, Michele Flournoy today delivered an address at IDSA on India-US strategic partnership and participated in the interactive session that followed with the scholars of the institute and select invitees. In her opening address, she underlined the importance of India in solving both regional and global problems. The depth of the partnership could be gauged from the pace at which the strategic partnership has progressed she added.

She reiterated that the US was committed to a long-term strategic partnership with India as the interests of both nations converged over a wide spectrum. These ranged from Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Indian Ocean region, interests in the global commons, among others. Flournoy asserted that India was an indispensable partner to realising the US’s regional and global strategic objectives. Referring to the concerns expressed in New Delhi on the commitment of the Obama administration to further strengthening the relationship, Ms. Flournoy assured the audience that the present administration is as committed as the previous administrations in furthering the partnership.

Speaking on Afghanistan, Ms. Flournoy clarified that July 2011 was not a withdrawal point for US forces from that country but an ‘inflection point’ which indicated that the ongoing surge of US troops will end. She added that the US will continue to be heavily engaged even beyond that point. In this context, she appreciated India’s constructive role in providing developmental assistance and acknowledged the sacrifices made by Indian personnel while carrying out their activities.

Ms. Flournoy stated that the US was trying to build trust with the Pakistani leadership and that there has been an increased commitment from that leadership to combat extremism which has begun to haunt them as well. She added that the defence equipment the US was providing Pakistan like F-16 aircraft was being used in counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism campaigns.

The Indian Ocean region according to her was an important area of US strategic interest, as noted in the Quadrennial Defence Review 2010. These were also the waterways on which India depended for her energy imports. China in recent past was also evincing a keen interest in the Indian Ocean. On China specifically, Ms. Flournoy stated that the US was watching its rise with great interest. While seeking a positive, cooperative relationship with China, the US was also encouraging it to be more transparent in its strategic goals.

Ms. Flournoy noted that in order to deal with trans-national threats like the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and maritime security, cooperative, multi-lateral approaches would be useful. In this regard, she pointed out the efficacy of such multi-lateral responses like the post-2004 Tsunami rescue efforts. She concluded by emphasising the need for India and the US to capitalise on the remarkable progress made so far in the bilateral relationship. She called for a better understanding of each other’s processes and procedure in the defence field in order to further strengthen defence cooperation. Another aspect could be for both the countries to make operational cooperation procedures to undertake high-seas patrolling for instance.

Concluding her remarks, Ms. Flournoy stated that given that India and the US share a deep commitment to long-term cooperation, both the countries can form an enduring partnership to increase peace and security both regionally and globally.

In the Q&A, members of the audience raised questions about the continuing US arms supplies to Pakistan and the negative effect of such a policy on the security situation in the sub-continent. Ms. Flournoy stated that the US was mindful of such concerns. She however reiterated that US arms were primarily intended to assist that country in dealing with the menace of terrorism.

On Iran, she stated that India and the US shared the same objective on not wanting to see a nuclear-armed country but may be differed on the way to achieve that objective. She reiterated that the prospects of dialogue and negotiation with the Iranian regime were open and that the US was forced to follow the sanctions path given the Iranian intransigence in not fulfilling their international obligations.

She held out the prospects of greater cooperation in the defence realm between India and the US and pointed out that over 90 per cent of license requests from India were approved. She however acknowledged that the US export control system was cumbersome, antiquated and needed to change in order to accommodate the changing US security interests.

Ms. Flournoy informed the audience that the US was aware of ‘seam’ issues between the Central Command and Pacific Command and India’s concerns in the matter. She added that new commanders at both these commands would address the issue actively.

On Afghanistan, Ms. Flournoy stated that the building up of capacities of Afghan security forces was of prime importance. She also reiterated the importance of more representation in governmental structures by all sections of the Afghan society in order to address the root causes of the problem in that country.

In reply to a question, Ms. Flournoy reiterated that the US was concerned about both the intentions as well as capabilities of China, specifically their anti-ship missiles, ASAT weapons, cyber capabilities, among others. She pointed out that the Chinese were indulging in assertive behaviour in the South China Sea, which was unsettling its neighbours.

N.S. Sisodia, Director General, IDSA, introduced Ms. Flournoy and thanked her for sharing her thoughts on the India-US bilateral relations. Amb. Shyam Saran, chaired the session.

Report prepared by S. Samuel C. Rajiv, Associate Fellow, IDSA.

North American
4th South Asia Conference: The Common Challenge of Terrorism in South Asia and Prospect of Regional Cooperation November 02, 2010 to November 03, 2010 Conference
South Asia

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