Events

Prof. Ishtiaq Ahmed, Professor Emeritus of Political Science, Stockholm University, gave a talk at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi, on 14 June 2023 and shared his perspective on “Evolving Political Situation in Pakistan and Prospects of India-Pakistan Relations”. The Session was chaired by the Director General, MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy. Scholars of the Institute participated.

Executive Summary

Professor Ahmed spoke about the historical context of the creation of Pakistan, relations with India and dynamics of the political situation in Pakistan. Given his scholarship and writings on Pakistan, his views provided insights into how civil-society of Pakistan approaches issues concerning India-Pakistan relations.

The following points emerged during his talk.

Muhammad Ali Jinnah won the case for Pakistan on the basis of “Two Nation Theory.” The theory that Jinnah raised the bogey of a separate state just to increase his bargaining power vis-à-vis Indian National Congress in securing the interests of Muslims within India does not hold in light of documentary evidences. The demand for Pakistan was not a bargaining chip but Jinnah always wanted to be credited for the creation of Pakistan.

After the death of Jinnah, a controversy emerged about the kind of state he wanted Pakistan to be. Some said he wanted a modern state, others believed that he was all for an Islamic state, few thought he was in favour of a secular state. Every group has its own reasons to think that way. The confusion prevails because Jinnah may be quoted in any of the three ways.

There are plenty of evidences to suggest that Jinnah made attempts to bargain out Pakistan’s geostrategic location in lieu of military and financial support from the West. While Pakistan was yet to be a reality, he had already explained to US officials how Pakistan would support America in its efforts to contain Soviet Union’s expansion in South Asia.

Jinnah very much wanted Pakistan as a separate state but he did not think that relations with India would deteriorate. He had his plans to retain his properties in India. The violence in the wake of partition and largescale migration changed the situation on ground. As he realised that Pakistan would be flooded with a large number of refugees, which would be difficult for it to manage, he delivered his famous 11th August speech in the Constituent Assembly of Pakistan where he said that “You are free; you are free to go to your temples, you are free to go to your mosques or to any other place or worship in this State of Pakistan. You may belong to any religion or caste or creed -- that has nothing to do with the business of the State.”

Pakistan has wasted its energy to compete with India and paid a heavy price for its enmity with India. The official narrative in India is that India is an existential threat and enemy number one, which is not based on any objective reality. None of the wars was initiated by India. Right since the beginning, it was the politico-security establishment at the helm which propagated this wrong idea.

People in Pakistan are not against India and Indian people. In fact, they welcome Indian people with open arms. One can ask Hindus and Sikhs visiting Pakistan to confirm this point. They are treated well by the ordinary Pakistanis. The official narrative between the two countries needs to be changed. It will benefit Pakistan more if it shuns its inimical approach towards India. To a question, whether the Muslims of India were treated as warmly in Pakistan, he said, as a communal state the behaviour of Pakistanis would be naturally warm towards them, but what really needed scrutiny is the attitude of the Pakistani Muslims towards non-Muslims from India.

Over the years, Pakistan has emerged as a rentier state. It allows its land and institutions to be used by outside powers for economic and military aid. Throughout the Cold war, United States paid the rent and used the Pakistani state the way it wanted. Now in the changed circumstances, Chinese are doing the same. However, Chinese are tough nuts to crack, as far as economic matters are concerned. They very much focus on recovering their money with profit, he said.

The political situation in present day Pakistan is fragile. There is a division in Pakistan Army, as some insiders are supporting Imran Khan. How deep this division is, nobody knows as of now. It is clear that unlike in the past, Punjab is no longer supporting the Army wholeheartedly. That is a worrying aspect for the Pakistan Army.

Bilawal Bhutto has his eyes on the security establishment. He is trying hard to get close to the establishment for political purposes. This was the reason he made an unceremonious remark against Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He has premiership in his mind. The Army may also back him as the current PML-N leadership is not considered reliable.

In the present circumstances, Imran Khan and his PTI do not seem to be coming back to power again, even if the future does not look certain now. Sharif brothers may have their chance to get hold of power again if they play their cards well. However, it will depend upon what the security establishment will decide in the days to come. Prof. Ishtiaq considered the Army an institution too critical for the survival for Pakistan and held that it still has enough power to shape the future course of politics in the country.

The talk was followed by comments by the Director General, Ambassador Sujan R.  Chinoy, and other scholars.

The report was prepared by Dr. Ashish Shukla, Associate Fellow, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.

The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) organised an Africa Day Roundtable on the theme “India’s G20 Presidency: Furthering India-Africa Ties” on 23 May 2023 between 11:00 to 13:00 hrs IST in MP-IDSA Auditorium as a Think20 (T20) side event. The opening remarks were delivered by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA & T20 Chair for India’s G20 Presidency. The special remarks were delivered by H.E. Mr. Joel Sibusiso Ndebele, High Commissioner of South Africa to India; H.E. Mr. Haymandoyal Dillum, High Commissioner of Mauritius to India and Mr. Sherif Elgammal, Deputy Chief of Mission, Embassy of the Arab Republic of Egypt to India. Ambassador Chinoy chaired the panel discussion. The panellists included Ms. Ruchita Beri, Ambassador Rajiv Bhatia, Mr. S Kuppuswamy, Mr. Tarun Sharma, Ms.Shivali Lawale, Dr. Nivedita Ray. The concluding remarks was delivered by H.E. Mr. Alem Tsehaye Woldemariam, Ambassador of Eritrea to India, Dean of Diplomatic Corps, India. Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA proposed the Vote of Thanks. The roundtable was attended by MP-IDSA scholars, interns, MP-IDSA members and guest attendees, including officials from the Ministry of External Affairs and members of various think tanks and universities.

Executive Summary

The Roundtable brought out perceptive inputs on the theme “India’s G20 Presidency: Furthering India-Africa Ties”. Ambassadors, High Commissioners of African countries to India, eminent scholars, and experts from India were in attendance.  The event emphasised the importance of India-Africa relations and maintaining pan-African interactions. South-South collaboration was highlighted, particularly in clean technology, climate-resilient cultivation, gender equality, and democratising global institutions. The significance of institutionalised mechanisms like the India-Africa Forum Summit (IAFS) and India-Africa Defence Dialogue (IADD) in fostering India-Africa relations was reiterated.

Experts in the panel discussion emphasised Africa's potential, India's consultative partnership, and collaboration in trade, healthcare, infrastructure, and agriculture. They discussed initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable. The panellists proposed strategies to further enhance India-Africa Partnership, including elevating the African Union to a G20 member, hosting the India Africa Forum Summit, and promoting student exchange programs.

The roundtable aimed to strengthen India-Africa ties through collaboration, mutual respect, shared values, inclusive growth, sustainable development, and cooperation in addressing global challenges for a promising future.

Detailed Report

Inaugural Session

The event commenced with opening remarks by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy (Director General, MP-IDSA). At the outset, he acknowledged the distinguished speakers and guests for their presence and warmly welcomed all the participants. He mentioned that MP-IDSA has been organizing the Africa Day Roundtable for last seven years, showcasing its commitment to Africa. Ambassador Chinoy highlighted India's historical ties, maritime connections, and the role of diaspora vis-a-vis the African continent.

He underscored India's G20 Presidency is the presidency of the Global South and recalled Prime Minister Modi's thoughts at the Voice of Global South Summit. He also assessed India's G20 Presidency as the first ever G20 with a human-centric approach to solving global problems. He highlighted the T20's role in connecting institutions and individuals worldwide to share views and suggestions in line with India's G20 theme, "One Earth, One Family, One Future."

Ambassador Chinoy acknowledged the webinar's timely and significant theme, addressing critical issues of the Global South. He highlighted topics such as macroeconomics, development, healthcare, climate change, green transition, and reform of international financial and multilateral institutions. He emphasised the responsibility of developed countries to provide capital and technology for a rapid green transition to combat global warming. Furthermore, he mentioned India's focus on inclusivity and achieving gender equality, aligning with the views of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Amb. Chinoy highlighted the challenges in reaching a consensus due to dispersed power globally. He mentioned the need for revitalizing and democratising multilateral institutions to address global issues. He identified common challenges faced by the Global South, including poverty, climate change, and food and energy insecurity.

He stated that under the dynamic leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has carried out unprecedented outreach and engagement with Africa, including institutionalising the India-Africa Defence Ministers Conclave and launching of India-Africa Security Fellowship Programme at MP-IDSA .

Finally, Amb. Chinoy emphasised that India-Africa partnership is built on equality, mutual respect and mutual benefit. He mentioned India’s expanding defence engagements with several African nations. He was convinced that strong relations between India and Africa would strengthen multipolarity. He hoped the discussion would contribute to a shared effort to create a more promising future.

H.E. Mr. Joel Sibusiso Ndebele (High Commissioner of South Africa to India began his special remarks by underscoring the importance of Africa Day, commemorating the Charter of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) signing on 25 May 1963. It celebrates Africa's liberation from colonialism and apartheid and rejects colonial or imperialist domination. He discussed the establishment of the African Union (AU) in 2002, as well as its predecessor, the OAU, founded in 1963, and described the AU as the fulfillment of the African goal of Pan-Africanism, now commemorating 20 years.

He enumerated South Africa’s structural and socio-economic challenges exacerbated by the COVID-19 Pandemic. However, he iterated the country’s willingness to engage with those committed to shared prosperity and rule-based order. He opined that India's G20 Presidency commitment to "One Earth, One Family" resonates in Africa. The High Commissioner identified four crucial areas of cooperation in which India and Africa could work closely. One, supporting the ideas and vision of Agenda 2063 with special attention to Sustainable Development Goals and green transition. Two, continued support for the G20 partnership with Africa. Three, emphasising the G20's initiatives on industrialisation in Africa. He remarked that the South African administration is looking for multilateral cooperation through BRICS and harnessing inclusive growth for all, as aligned with India's views. Four, need to prioritise women empowerment. In conclusion, he acknowledged that the G20, under India's Presidency, could play a catalytic role in ensuring multilateral rules and conduct for a peaceful and prosperous Africa.

H.E. Mr. Haymandoyal Dillum (High Commissioner of Mauritius to India) began his remarks by appreciating MP-IDSA's multidisciplinary approach to advancing India's G20 vision. He stated that under India's presidency, the G20 had taken a new turn in ensuring more inclusivity and raising concerns about the Global South on the international platform. The rallying point in India-Africa relations is India's continued support for African liberation and the end of racial struggle. He highlighted that since India-Africa relations are rooted in friendship, mutual respect, and cooperation, it has paved the way for a solid political and economic partnership.

He emphasised that the successive India-Africa Summits have fostered enhanced cooperation in various areas such as political engagement, economic collaboration, development initiatives, information technology, and climate change. He praised India for providing African countries with tremendous help during the pandemic through its signature "Vaccine Maitri" campaign and its dedication to obtaining medications, food, and financial aid. He argued that the lack of finance and technology limits Africa's ability to grow and develop, despite the continent's huge landmass, the wealth of raw materials, availability of labour, and vibrant leadership. Thus, he urged for the adoption of a new trade paradigm in the future that is focused on "glocalisation" and regional interests. He added that Mauritius has been instrumental in creating special economic zones to support an integrated commerce chain between India, Mauritius, and Africa. He concluded by quoting, "If you want to go fast, go alone, but if you want to go far, go together".

Mr. Sherif Elgammal (Deputy Chief of Mission, Embassy of the Arab Republic of Egypt to India) began by emphasising that India's G20 Presidency will be successful. He commended India's G20 theme, "One, Earth, One Family, One Future, " which aligns well with Egypt's shared vision in COP27. India and Egypt, two of the oldest civilisations in the world, have a long history of close engagement. Historically, trade cooperation flourished along the banks of the rivers Nile and Indus, creating a strong sense of shared culture and identity. 

He mentioned that India and Egypt elevated their bilateral ties to a strategic partnership in January 2023 to further their relations. Despite global challenges, bilateral trade cooperation and joint investment have soared in the last few years. Mr. Elagammal further highlighted the strong commercial partnership between Egypt and India, with bilateral trade reaching USD 7.26 billion in 2021-22. Indian businesses have significantly invested in Egypt's infrastructure, electricity, and telecommunications. He concluded by outlining the enormous potential for furthering the expansion of economic and commercial ties between the two countries and, subsequently, to the African continent. 

Panel Discussion

The panel discussion was chaired by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy (Director General, MP-IDSA.

Ms. Ruchita Beri (Consultant, Africa, LAC, and UN Centre, MP-IDSA) highlighted the significance of Africa and the potential for strengthening India-Africa ties during India's G20 Presidency. She emphasised four key points: the African Continental Free Trade Area (ACFTA), making Africa the largest free trade zone in the world, Africa's young population as a crucial resource for global economic growth, the continent's vast uncultivated arable land and its impact on global food security, and the abundance of resources needed for the green transition. Ms. Beri acknowledged the challenges faced by African countries but remains optimistic about Africa's future. She further emphasised India's consultative partnership with African nations and how it aligns with the G20 priorities of climate change, inclusive growth, and multilateralism.

Ms Beri also highlighted Africa's efforts in renewable energy innovation and progress in women empowerment, which provide opportunities for collaboration between India and African countries. She underscored the importance of India's G20 Presidency in strengthening relations with Africa, promoting the African Union as the 21st member of the G20, and called for the early hosting of the India Africa Forum Summit. Quoting former Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari, she highlighted historical similarities and potential for a distinct partnership between India and Africa. She expressed hope that India's G20 Presidency would enhance cooperation between the two.

Ambassador Rajiv Bhatia presented a six-point formula for the India-Africa Partnership. He emphasised the historical significance, shared values, and common interests that enrich the relationship. First, implementation of initiatives announced by the Prime Minister at the Voice of the Global South Summit before G20 Summit. He stressed the importance of implementing these initiatives at least 100 days before the Delhi Summit, as they require planning and additional budgetary resources. Second, the Ambassador advocated the elevation of the African Union from a guest to a member of the G20. While expressing support from major leaders and powers, he called for a clear decision on this matter in the Delhi Declaration of the Summit. Third, Ambassador Bhatia highlighted the urgent need for the fourth India Africa Forum Summit. He suggested it should take place after the G20 Summit, within the window of October or November. This would accelerate the positive work done during the previous summits and strengthen bilateral relations. Fourth, the Ambassador called upon the African Union to make a prompt decision to establish diplomatic representation in Delhi. While acknowledging the efforts of African Ambassadors, he stressed the necessity of having a pan-African voice and representation to facilitate discussions on the African continent. Fifth, Ambassador Bhatia expressed his hope for greater representation of African diplomats, businesspeople, students, and tourists in India. He urged African diplomats to visit Indian universities, think tanks, and institutions to address the growing demand for knowledge and information on Africa. Amb. Bhatia concluded by suggesting that India and Africa promote student exchange programmes, emphasising the necessity of expanding the number of African students in India and vice versa.

Mr. S. Kuppuswamy, Advisor, Shapoorji Pallonji Group, provided valuable private-sector perspectives. He highlighted the importance of a concerted approach by India and the G20 Forum in dealing with ongoing projects in Africa, ensuring that loan disbursements are not affected. He underscored that India has taken an integrated development approach for Africa, focusing on the four pillars of the economy: agriculture, infrastructure, housing, and healthcare. Regarding housing, he emphasised that India alone cannot bridge the widening gap in housing demand and supply in Africa, and suggested that all G20 countries pool their resources to find a solution. In healthcare, he stressed the need for multi-speciality hospitals and recommended that India and collaborating countries not only provide equipment and infrastructure but also bridge the gap in working capital for the first five years. This would ensure the hospitals can run without interruption and stabilise their operations. In agriculture, he mentioned India's efforts to assist Africa with irrigation, water treatment equipment, and scaling up the production of various crops. He suggested that G20 countries, including Japan, Korea, and France, could provide additional support. Lastly, he highlighted the importance of infrastructure development in Africa to utilise its raw materials and contribute to the global economy. He proposed the integrated development of Africa as the theme for G20 countries, with India as the fulcrum.

Mr. Tarun Sharma, Deputy Managing Director of the Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank), highlighted several key points in his statement regarding the India-Africa Partnership. He emphasised the significance of the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, co-chaired by the IMF, World Bank, and India, which aims to create mechanisms for debt sustainability and supplement existing frameworks. He discussed the Exim Bank's role in supporting sustainable growth in Africa through lines of credit in various sectors such as connectivity, power generation, manufacturing, agriculture, and water supply. He also mentioned Exim Bank's focus on sustainability, particularly in environmental, social, and governance, and its commitment to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the energy transition. Trade assistance and financing were identified as critical areas, with Exim Bank implementing a program to support incremental trade between African countries and India. He highlighted the importance of both physical and digital connectivity, with projects and initiatives supporting these aspects. Lastly, he mentioned India's support for e-governance and digital services in Africa, drawing from successful experiences in India.

Dr. Nivedita Ray (ICWA Director of Research), in her remarks on Africa Day, highlighted the significance of the year 2023 for both Africa and India. She mentioned that it marks the 60th anniversary of the establishment of the OAU (Organization of African Unity) and the completion of the 10-year implementation plan of Agenda 2063 in Africa. She also highlighted the importance of India's G20 presidency and its role in promoting India-Africa ties through the India-Africa Forum Summit and the G20. Dr. Ray raised two main points: the need for better representation of African priorities and concerns within the G20 and the alignment of G20 priorities with Africa's Agenda 2063. She noted the importance of giving voice to African countries and their aspirations, suggesting that the African Union should become a member of the G20 to ensure a more representative platform. Furthermore, she called for aligning G20 priorities with the projects outlined in Africa's Agenda 2063, such as the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, silencing the guns by 2030, extending the Pan-Africa e-network, and developing the Africa Virtual University. Dr. Ray also emphasised the need for India's technical expertise and support in realising these projects and ensuring their success.  She concluded by underscoring India's active role in advancing Africa's agenda within the G20 and aligning priorities for sustainable development.

Ms. Shivali Lawale (Director, Symbiosis School of International Studies) began her remarks by highlighting the Lifestyle for Environment initiative (LiFE) launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi at COP26 and discussed the need for progress at the grassroots level. She commended the multi-stakeholder approach adopted by the G20 Presidency and emphasised the importance of youth engagement, particularly in countries like India, Nigeria, and Egypt. She underlined the importance of sustainable agriculture, stressing the need to safeguard and sustain indigenous knowledge systems in agriculture from both India and African countries. She suggested using technology to create a repository of oral traditions for future generations.

Ms. Lawale also underlined the significance of sustainable consumption, particularly among the large youth population. They encouraged ethical consumption patterns and highlighted the importance of recycling and upcycling, which have caught the attention of young people globally. Regarding sustainable energy, she cited the example of the Solar Alliance launched by India and France, which includes many African countries. She also suggested focusing on research and development collaborations, dual degree programs, and joint PhDs in sustainable consumption, agriculture, and energy.

During the Q/A session, Ambassador Bhatia and H.E. Mr. Haymandoyal Dillum discussed the potential role of India in engaging with African nations in sustainable development programs through partnerships, knowledge sharing, financial assistance, people-to-people exchanges, regional integration, and research collaboration. By adopting a collaborative approach, India can leverage its expertise, resources, and experiences in sustainable development to support African nations in their development goals. Furthermore, this collaborative model promotes mutual development and strengthens bilateral relations between India and African contries.

Concluding Session

H.E. Mr. Alem Tsehaye Woldemariam (Ambassador of Eritrea to India and Dean of Diplomatic Corps, India) made the concluding remarks. He reiterated that the main aim of South-South cooperation is to provide a framework for collaboration among the countries of the global south in political, economic, social, environmental, and technological areas. In addition to congratulating India on heading the G20, Ambassador Woldemariam emphasised that India's leadership position on the international stage offers humanity a justice-driven approach to addressing persistent problems. He stressed that Africa favoured the proposed global agenda, built on the four R's of respect, response, recognition, and reform. He believed that the G20, led by India, would become the authentic voice for the African continent.

Maj Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA proposed the Vote of Thanks. He underlined that the opportunity for India and Africa to deepen their strategic partnership is enormous, given India's G20 chairmanship. He emphasised that together, India and Africa can overcome obstacles, seize opportunities, and create a better future for their people by combining their different talents and experiences. He concluded by underscoring that the discussion had been beneficial and reflected the ambitions of the Global South as a whole.

The report was prepared by Mr. Mohanasakthivel J, Research Analyst, Africa, LAC, and UN Centre, MP-IDSA and Ms. Sneha M, Research Analyst, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.

Niranjan Oak, Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Analysing the Nuclear Dynamics in East Asia” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 5 June 2023. The session was moderated by Dr. Rajiv Nayan, Senior Research Associate, MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General of MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), the Deputy Director General of MP-IDSA and scholars of the Institute were in attendance.

Executive Summary

Although, numerically the overall nuclear weapons trend appears to be on a downward track, there exist reverse trajectory in East Asia. At a systemic level China is trying to compete with its strategic rival, the United States, vis-à-vis the nuclear domain, both in qualitative (technological advancement and precision missiles) and quantitative terms. At a regional level, the nuclear dynamics will substantially be impacted by the US extended nuclear deterrence. Japan and South Korea remain the threshold states with active deliberation over nuclear weapons introduction in the region. In recent times, they have tried to resolve bilateral disputes in order to align their strategies against a common threat. North Korea, despite rampant provocations, would maintain its regime security by not resorting to a pre-emptive strike on its neighbours. Thus, nuclear dynamism of the region would continue to keep the pot boiling for an unforeseeable future.

Detailed Report

Dr. Rajiv Nayan began the meeting with a synoptical analysis of the nuclear dynamics in the East Asian region and emerging contemporary issues. In his introductory remark, he briefly touched upon the nuclear priorities of governments of Japan and South Korea, and their immediate implication in terms of Chinese response.

Mr. Niranjan Oak began his presentation with the G7 joint statement on Nuclear Disarmament. He further contextualised the Chinese numerical enhancement of nuclear weapons with the overall reduction in nuclear warheads from more than 70,000 in 1986 to approx. 12,500 currently. With the background of North Korean incessant cruise, ballistic and hypersonic missile tests, Mr. Oak gave a comprehensive analysis of the East Asian countries with substantive military and technological capabilities.

As per US Nuclear Posture Review 2022, China is slated to increase the number of nuclear warheads to 1000 by 2030. The estimate is based on 250 missile silos which were discovered in 2021, and are predictably to be filled with Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) missiles. In the midst, a possibility of bluff and ambiguity can also not be ignored. Mr. Oak described the wide range of ballistic, cruise, hypersonic missiles and other weapon delivery systems that China possesses, along with its ambitious modernisation plan juxtaposed with emerging technologies. Contextualising North Korean threats, Mr. Oak detailed North Korea’s military capabilities along with their pronouncements including no pre-emptive strike. Pyongyang is projected to increase its nuclear warheads by the end of this decade. It has further tried to enhance its survivability by diversifying its delivery platforms. Mr. Oak attributed the barrage of missile tests in 2022 and 2023 to potential causes such as acute food shortage impacting the economy, using tests as a bargaining chip to extract economic concessions from the west and preference to regime security.

South Korea President Yoon Suk Yeol’s interest in redeploying the nuclear weapons on its soil reflects increasing frustration with North’s aggression towards South. Mr. Oak attributed the timing to this nuclear utterance by South Korean President to increased provocation by North Korea with its missile tests, its sophistication and declining credibility of United States extended nuclear deterrence. The United States responded with forging ‘the ‘Washington Declaration’ in March 2023. The declaration includes the commitment of ROK to provide full conventional military support to the US nuclear or conventional operations. ROK further expressed its full commitment towards NPT. The United States, on the other hand, committed itself to strengthen the consultation process in nuclear planning and operations through the establishment of the Nuclear Consultative Group. These initiatives ensure that South Korea plays a supporting role in any operation with its conventional forces implying that command and control related to nuclear weapons stay completely with the US.

Mr. Oak further detailed Japan’s security dynamics in the East Asian geopolitical canvass. Japan’s National Security Strategy 2022 lists North Korean missile threats, increased defense budget of China and Taiwan’s quagmire as threats to Japanese security interests. Japan has already included counter-strike capabilities in its security strategies. Within five years, with the support of allies and partners, Japan intends to equip itself to defend its territories in case of foreign invasion. As a part of its ten years goal, Japan intends to disrupt and defeat the invasion much earlier and develop robust long range missile capabilities. Japan has begun changing its pacifist nature and adapting to deal with the changing security environment by increasing the share of ‘defense and other outlays’ spending to upto 2% of the GDP.

Chinese adventurism in Taiwan is bound to have repercussions for both Japan and the United States. In recent times China has increased its provocative activities with more missile launches, more naval activities and more central line crossing over Taiwan Strait, effectively establishing a new normal. To meet China’s challenge, Taiwan’s modest missile stockpile consists of anti-ship cruise missiles and short range ballistic missiles among others.

Mr. Oak concluded that the nuclear dynamics in the region continues to be volatile. This volatility is on account of Chinese rivalry with the United States, North Korea’s increasing missile tests, dwindling credibility of the US extended nuclear deterrence to its East Asian allies and escalating Taiwan crisis.

Dr. Rajiv Nayan commented on the advancement of hypersonic capabilities of China and North Korea at a time when most of the western world is struggling to acquire the capability. On the question of nuclearization of East Asia, he pointed out that Japan possesses enough fissile material to produce approx. 6000 nuclear warheads. He further pointed out that successive governments in Japan have refrained themselves from taking a political decision to acquire nuclear weapons. He further predicted a spiral effect as a result of Japan’s nuclear acquisition. Besides, he alluded to the dithering commitment of the United States to its East Asian allies that induces these countries to look for security in the nuclear option.   

Comment and Questions

The floor was opened for questions and comments. The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), and scholars from the Institute contributed to the discussion. In his remarks, Ambassador Chinoy complimented the presentation for its crisp, precise and usefulness of factual information. Ambassador Chinoy further suggested the need for focussing on Japanese nuclear debate and its implications on South Korea in particular and Korean peninsula in general. The strategic duality reflected in the security alliance between the US and its two East Asian partners, on one hand, and ambition to acquire nuclear weapons both in Seoul and Tokyo on the other, should also be examined. Ambassador Chinoy commented on Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s alignment (or dis-alignment) with nuclear weapons given his ancestral connection with Hiroshima, one of the cities to be bombed by nuclear weapons. He further asked how the NPT provisions explain the transfers of certain kind of fissile material for non-military purposes. He also expressed his desire to understand the Chinese reaction to the AUKUS trilateral agreement for the transfers of nuclear submarines.

Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) highlighted the strong abhorrence to nuclear weapons and nuclear reactors in Japan. Further, he asked about the implications of various missile and defense systems on South Asian security dynamics with special reference to the prospects of Indian Ballistic missile defense systems.

In the question and answer session, issues such as credibility of claims of defense systems and its battle effectiveness, Chinese tactical nuclear weapons, Indian ballistic missile defense system and China’s response to the AUKUS deal were taken up.

Mr. Niranjan Oak pointed out the rhetorical approach of the Chinese with respect to any security alliance or military build-up in East Asian region. He further clarified that AUKUS is not a violation of NPT as it commits the transfer of nuclear propelled submarine and not the nuclear weapon carrying submarine. He also pointed out the South Asian security dynamics in terms of the China-Pakistan nexus and India’s involvement with minilateral groupings like Quad, among others.

The report was prepared by Mr. Abhishek Verma, Research Analyst, Internal Security Centre. MP-IDSA.

Dr. Arnab Dasgupta, Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, spoke on “Takeaways from Prime Minister Modi’s Visits to Japan, Papua New Guinea, and Australia” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 29 May 2023. The Session was moderated by Mr. Om Prakash Das, Research Fellow at MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, Maj Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA and scholars of the Institute were in attendance.

Executive Summary

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's high-power diplomacy at the G-7 summit is to understand the developed world's perspective on global security challenges and the challenges of the Global South to act as a viable interlocutor to address these concerns through India’s G20 Presidency. A key outcome of the Quad Leader Summit is moving beyond the security function to development concerns such as connectivity and space cooperation.  The Prime Minister’s visit to the strategically significant Pacific Island countries and Prime Minister’s announcement of a 12 Point Action Plan to address developmental challenges are of particular significance at the 3rd Forum for India- Pacific Island Cooperation Summit.

Detailed Report

Mr. Om Prakash Das, Moderator, introduced the topic. He spoke about the significance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi attending the G7 Summit.  There were high expectations from the G7 Summit taking place amid the Russia -Ukraine War.  The Prime Minister's participation in the FIPIC Summit is noteworthy and in addressing the concerns of the Global South.  The Prime Minister’s visit to Australia is significant and diaspora plays an important role in strengthening India-Australia relations.

 Dr. Arnab Dasgupta outlined the structure of his presentation by posing key questions. What did Prime Minister Modi achieve with these visits? What are the key diplomatic takeaways, and do they serve India’s goals? What are the major steps needed to further foreign policy objectives?

 Dr Dasgupta discussed the significance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Japan at the invitation of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in the G7 Hiroshima Summit.  The Prime Minister engaged G7 leaders bilaterally and multilaterally. Prime Minister Modi addressed Session 6, where he highlighted the multiple crises confronting the global community as the COVID 19 and Ukraine crises aggravated global food shortages, global health challenges arising from climate change and sustainable development.

Dr. Arnab Dasgupta highlighted the key takeaways of the G7 Summit. First, the inclusion of Global South in the G7 agenda and the call for the reform of the multilateral institutions. These institutions do not cater to the needs of the 21st Century. Dr. Dasgupta emphasised Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the G7 Summit. The Prime Minister assured humanitarian aid to Ukraine and he stated that dialogue and diplomacy are the only way forward to resolve the conflicts.

 Dr. Dasgupta pointed out the key outcomes of the Quad Summit which was held on the sidelines of the Hiroshima Summit on May 20, 2023. The Quad Leaders’ Summit focused on stability and prosperity of the Indo-Pacific. Quad Leaders major initiatives are: first, the agency and   the centrality of the ASEAN, Pacific Islands Forum, and IORA will be preserved. Second, clean energy supply chain will be created for clean economic transition; third, reorientation of Quad vaccine partnership to health security partnership in order to contain the future Pandemics. Fourth, Quad infrastructure fellowship has been announced to create 1800 professionals in infrastructure field. Fifth, Quad leaders emphasized connectivity protecting the undersea cable networks.by creating a partnership for cable connectivity and resilience Sixth, an Open Radio Network is to be established in Palau, Sixth, Quad investment in emerging technologies will be done through various initiatives such as Quad joint partnership in software development and the Space Working Group.

Dr. Arnab   Dasgupta clarified about Quad expansion vs overreach debate. He cited the Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra as saying that the Quad Summit meeting on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Japan and the canceling of the Summit in Australia did not undermine the Quad Summit as it does not have a formal institutional structure like NATO.  Quad exists as long as its members are willing to talk to each other as the Quad.

Dr. Arnab Dasgupta talked about the FIPIC Summit that was held on 22 -23 May 2023 in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea under the leadership of Prime Minister James Marape and Prime Minister Modi. India has deep roots in the region many of the Pacific Islands have special diaspora connections and ancestry traced back to the Indian subcontinent. Dr. Dasgupta mentioned that China's inroads into the Pacific Islands are a cause of concern.  India has good intentions, but China has the money. India’s intangible economic footprint is deeper in the region. India’s outreach is in response to the needs of Pacific Island countries. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the 12 Point Action Plan for infrastructure development. India’s developmental expertise is indispensable in the areas of health, IT, solar and desalination projects, and small and medium enterprises infrastructure.

 Dr. Arnab Dasgupta analysed the last leg of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit which was to Australia. According to him, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Prime Minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese transformed India-Australia bilateral relations. Key outcomes of the visit include a comprehensive economic partnership agreement, future cooperation in the mining of the minerals, the migration and mobility agreement, and agreeing to share expertise in green and clean energy transitions. The mutual security interests of Australia and India are to secure a free and open Indo-Pacific and to address the challenges posed by China. 

Dr. Arnab Dasgupta concluded his presentation by identifying guideposts and significant inflection points with respect to foreign policy moves on Indo Pacific and the Global South, in particular Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s forthcoming visit to the US to comprehend President Biden’s approach to Indo Pacific, and his visit to France in July to ensure the continuation of Indo – French cooperation in the Indo Pacific.  The Prime Minister's  engagement with the world leaders can be understood as exercises to generate goodwill, which in turn would enable the conduct of the G20 Summit in a smooth, cordial, and fruitful manner.

Comments and Questions

Mr. Om Prakash Das invited the Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy to give his comments.

Ambassador Chinoy shared his experience as an Indian Foreign Service officer who served in all three areas- Japan, Marshall Islands, and Australia. Ambassador Chinoy stated that India’s primary focus is on the Indian Ocean region and geographical distance need not be a factor in greater interaction with Pacific Islands.

Ambassador Chinoy expressed that there is ambiguity about whether China is to be considered part of Global South or not, and that whenever Chinese leader Xi Jinping speaks of leadership of developing countries there is a pushback from many developing countries on China’s ‘debt trap diplomacy’. Thus, India is not seeking ownership of Global South. India is the voice of the Global South.

 With regard to the Quad summit that was held on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Japan Ambassador Chinoy pointed out that it was a successful meeting. The contours of Quad have changed from 2017 to 2021. It has raised the expectations of the world. The primary focus of the Quad is preventing supply chain disruption in the Indo-Pacific and preventing economic and military threats to the region. Quad leaders are to work on infrastructure, connectivity, space, undersea cables and are not just looking at the elephant in the room. Quad is looking for creating a new environment for development.

 Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy highlighted that India’s presence in the Pacific Islands is not about matching Chinese capabilities. It is about serving India’s interests and keeping in mind the primary stakeholders, USA, China and Japan in the region. India’s presence is as a pro bono provider of public goods. Ambassador Chinoy shared his observations on India’s successful initiatives such as Information Technology Centers in Africa. Pacific Islands are difficult to visit and therefore, Singapore, which created a dedicated cadre of experts with the rank of Ambassadors who promoted Singapore’s vision abroad, is a worthy model to emulate in the Pacific Islands as well.

Dr. Dasgupta agreed with the views expressed by Ambassador Chinoy.  He further added that area specialists and language experts need to be chosen while engaging with the Pacific Island countries.

 Mr. Das invited the Deputy Director General to make his comments. Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi highlighted the G7 Summit held in Hiroshima. According to him Prime Minister Modi's visit to the Cenotaph and Peace Memorial Park had particular symbolism attached, as the Japanese were the only people hit by nuclear weapons. He also pointed out Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s emphasis on reform of the UN  Security Council.  Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi said the Prime Minister’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reflects India’s emergence on the world stage as a mediator or peacemaker in resolving conflicts.  He emphasised that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's outreach was warranted as Pacific Island countries are very small but significant countries. He stated that the Quad CDS meeting was scheduled but was canceled due to technical reasons.

Dr. Dasgupta responded that the nuclear memorial evokes a visceral understanding of nuclear conflict beyond a logical and intellectual understanding of nuclear security.

Dr. Rajiv Nayan, Senior Research Associate, emphasised that the Pacific Island countries are recognising the cultural capital of India. Different schools of thought, concepts, and ideas on Vishvaguru need to be debated so that they can be better utilized as cultural capital in India’s diplomatic interaction with the rest of the world.

Gp. Capt. Rajiv Kumar Narang VM, (Retd) highlighted the context of Quad investment in strategic technologies. Dr. Dasgupta responded that indigenisation of technology has limits. India's best possible option is the joint development of technology.

Dr. Anand Kumar asked the speaker how Quad interactions create reactionary responses from China. How is it possible to reconcile dilemmas of security and economic engagement with China?

Dr. Dasgupta answered by noting that the key dynamic is not to shut out China, but to figure out how cooperation can be managed.

 After the senior scholars, research analysts, and interns of the institute enriched the discussion with questions and comments, Mr. Om Prakash Das concluded the session. 

Report prepared by Dr. Velpula  Ramanujam,  Research  Analyst, South East Asia  and  Oceania Centre, MP- IDSA.