Events

On 8 May 2023, Dr. Prashant Kumar Singh of the East Asia Centre delivered a talk during the Monday Morning Meeting on “Analysing China's Recent Foreign Engagements in the Context of Xi Jinping's 3 Global Initiatives”. The meeting was moderated by Dr. MS Prathibha, Associate Fellow at MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General of MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), the Deputy Director General of MP-IDSA and scholars of the Institute were in attendance.

Executive summary

As the world emerged from the effects of COVID-19, China announced a new set of global initiatives: the Global Development Initiative (GDI), the Global Security Initiative (GSI) and the Global Civilization Initiative (GCI). These initiatives have different focus areas: the GDI on developmental finance and sustainable development goals, the GSI on security, and the GCI on ‘civilizational exchange’. However, as President Xi Jinping charts a more proactive diplomacy, there are concerns about the nature of China’s intentions in pursuing these initiatives. The talk by Dr. Singh analyses the promises and pitfalls the three global initiatives hold within, and what they mean for China’s neighbourhood and the world. It warns of China’s intentions to revise the world order in its favour, and encourages a reconsideration of India’s policy towards Chinese order-building and its contention for the leadership of the Global South. 

Detailed report

In her opening remarks, Dr. Prathibha introduced the topic by highlighting the flurry of diplomatic visits conducted by China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang in the wake of the decisions taken during the 20th Central Party Congress. The centrepiece of these initiatives are the three Global Initiatives, which include the Global Development Initiative (GDI), the Global Security Initiative (GSI) and the Global Civilization Initiative (GCI). With this introduction, the Dr. Prathibha turned over the floor to Dr. Singh for his lecture.

The speaker began by pointing out that the topic under discussion would focus more broadly on the thought patterns of the Chinese policymaking elite rather than bilateral or multilateral relations. He identified certain developments as evidence of these patterns, as China gradually metamorphoses from a low-profile power to an incipient superpower seeking to achieve its goals in the international arena. China’s alternative diplomacy has been attracting attention from interested parties who are wary of US power and has also managed to gain acceptance from countries in the West. For instance, the AIIB and the SCO are particularly relevant in this context for their continued success in becoming alternative multilateral institutions. These initiatives are accompanied by a consistent push to redefine the global order on China’s terms.

In an effort to pursue these objectives, President Xi Jinping and other high-ranking leaders such as Wang Yi, have articulated the need to promote ‘Chinese wisdom’ on the international stage, a concept which purports to advance ‘Chinese solutions’ to global problems. ‘Chinese wisdom’ is the driving force behind the overarching frame that is articulated as ‘A Community with a Shared Future for Mankind’, and motivates the GDI, GSI and GCI. Dr. Singh argued that these initiatives are taking a comprehensive and holistic view of a new international order premised on the indivisibility of “foreign” and “domestic” in terms of development, and security and also in terms of co-existence of diverse social and political systems.

The Global Developmental Initiative (GDI), introduced in September 2021 at the 76th United Nations General Assembly meeting, is envisaged by China as an implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Under the GDI, there are six objectives, eight focus areas and several deliverables. Thus far, the progress of the GDI has been mostly good, with nearly US$ 4 billion in investment in the Global Development and South-South Cooperation Funds, training and capacity-building programmes, and the membership of around 70 countries in the Group of Friends set up for the initiatives. However, the speaker pointed out that the GDI remained a state-led initiative to bolster the flagging Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), almost certainly devised to rid the latter of its negative image.  He also noted the issues with the GDI, with no tangible timelines, no clarity on funding sources and no tangible large-scale projects in the offing. Many recipient countries, which have benefited from the BRI, too, may not appreciate the change in focus as the big-ticket projects touted by the BRI are replaced by development finance, a more subtle form of economic assistance. As well, the international community is liable to be concerned, as the strategic communication surrounding the GDI touts China’s old lines of ‘development being the master key to every conflict’, conveniently ignoring the other political and geopolitical aspects of conflicts, strong opposition to human rights and liberal democracies and the linkage between the GDI and the Global Security Initiative.

Next, Dr. Singh focused on the GSI, introduced at the Boao Forum on Global Security in April 2022. The GSI has six key concepts, which are derived from China’s traditional diplomatic priorities, such as respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty. Flowing from these six priorities are 20 priority areas, ranging from nuclear security to regional institution building and peacekeeping, which are to be given attention through a host of platforms and mechanisms. The GSI, Dr. Singh argued, primarily serves as a projection of China’s views on security issues and issues that matter to the world. He highlighted China’s activities in the Horn of Africa, South Pacific and the Middle East as signals of a proactive policy, which may in turn herald China’s ‘peace activism at the global stage’, inserting itself into future conflicts as a mediator.  

Finally, the speaker discussed the GCI, the newest and the latest of the three initiatives. Introduced by General Secretary Xi at the World Political Parties Conference on the side-lines of the 20th CPC in March 2023, the GCI primarily revolves around the ‘Four Advocatings’: diversity of humanity and its political systems, the centrality of humanity, the privileging of inheritance and innovation, and people-to-people exchange. Initial reception, according to the speaker, was touted by the Chinese analysts as ‘good’. However, the initiative is yet to gain traction globally as there are only low-key pronouncements in the media and few scattered commentaries.

Dr. Singh argued that despite its best efforts, China has not succeeded in forging a common identity that could be shared with many countries. Chinese culture is a common civilizational identity in a few countries, therefore the difficulty of ensuring that its views would find a large audience remains to be seen. There is also popular resistance in many countries against the BRI, and there are also concerns about China’s irredentism, self-contradictory promotion of ethno-nationalistic policies overseas, and financial troubles regarding the BRI that are posing a challenge for Chinese diplomacy to navigate.

In summary, the speaker noted that Chinese diplomacy might be widely seen as an alternative to the US, but it is still going to experience its own share of successes and failures. He pointed to the need for other countries not only to shift and recalibrate their policies towards the new assertive China, but also to pay attention to its narratives. In the speaker’s view, global initiatives are often a form of strategic communication which signal intent and direction, thus pointing to the importance of understanding the role played by the phrasing used to delineate them.

Comments and questions

Dr. Prathibha opened the floor for comments and questions, which were led by the Director General, Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy. Ambassador Chinoy observed that China’s hostility towards the outside world represents a form of siege mentality which it has been unable to shake for millennia, and that the US has made significant blunders in hindsight by treating China as a country that could be rehabilitated to look like the US. The best example of this is the rules-based order, which China condemns as a Western imposition even as it profits from it. He also noted that China’s opinion in this regard matches India’s, the only difference being that India has been unable to design the alternative institutions that China has been able to carve out of the international order. Amb. Chinoy also noted that Chinese diplomacy now needs to be taken seriously. He also noted that the GDI is a vehicle designed to gain traction through its linkage with the SDGs, and the GSI brings into question the Western concept of ‘absolute security’. He then characterised the GCI, a challenge to the US-led Summit of Democracies, as most worthy of wariness, as it simultaneously justifies Chinese narratives and weakens the liberal order at the same time.

The Deputy Director-General, Maj.Gen. Bipin Bakshi, noted the need for a wary assessment of China’s new foreign policy, where it “plays peacemaker while stepping on its neighbours’ toes”. He pointed in particular to the Solomon Islands’ Security Agreement with China as an example of such a policy.

Commodore Anurag Bisen asked about how Indian policymakers should view the global initiatives, and how to square them with India’s own aspirations for leadership of the Global South. Dr. Singh answered by highlighting the tough choices face by India, as its aspirations, though similar to the ones articulated by China, must nevertheless remain its own; he advocated the continuation of current policy, where areas of commonality are worked on bilaterally, without a broader endorsement of Chinese policies.

The chair asked whether South Asia, especially disputes between India and Pakistan, might be covered by the GSI. Dr. Singh answered in the negative, but added that reinterpretation of the central principles of the GSI might make it so in the future.

The Report has been prepared by Dr. Arnab Dasgupta, Research Analyst, East Asia Centre.

Dr. Ashok K. Behuria, Senior Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Worsening Political Environment in Pakistan” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 01 May 2023. The session was moderated by Dr. Nazir Ahmad Mir, Research Assistant, MP-IDSA.  Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, and scholars of the Institute were in attendance.

Executive Summary

Pakistan’s political climate is deteriorating, yet again. The ouster of Prime Minister Imran Khan in April 2022 prompted a series of events that are driving the nation through multiple crises. The developments during the last 12 months are indicative of the political malaise that has affected Pakistan for the past seven decades. The ongoing row between the government and the judiciary over the issue of holding elections in Punjab in May has intensified the political crisis. The military establishment, which is figuratively referred to as the "umpire" in Pakistani politics, is to blame for this disarray because it has, over the years, undermined other institutions in order to maintain its hegemony in Pakistani power politics. What is worse is the division within various state institutions. The army and judiciary appear divided and are acting in partisan ways. The economy of Pakistan is in a state of free fall. Against this backdrop, Pakistan is in for long-term political instability and a chronic economic crisis.

Detailed Report

In his opening remarks, Dr. Nazir Ahmed Mir offered a brief overview of the current situation in Pakistan. He highlighted that the primary cause of the political unrest in Pakistan is due to the elite capture of state institutions resulting in multiple social and economic crises in the country. The elites are busy perpetuating their vested interests without bothering much about the state of crisis the country has been passing through. Dr. Nazir cited a recent UNDP report that indicated that the wealthiest 20 percent of Pakistanis owned close to 50 percent of the country's income. He emphasised that despite having to cope with numerous political, security, and economic challenges, Pakistan’s priorities have been misplaced.

Dr. Ashok Behuria began his presentation by stating that, the country has muddled its way through repeated economic and political turmoil in the past, defying the popular perception that it would collapse. In South Asia, he explained, Pakistan’s case is unique in the sense that it has an entrenched elite who have exploited different Articles in the 1973 Constitution (especially those amended by military dictators) derailing the process of democracy from time to time. General Zia amended the Constitution at will and introduced elements that are being used by the elites against one another affecting the smooth functioning of democracy in the country.  At the moment, the clauses introduced by Zia in Articles 62 1 f), 63, and Art 184(3) have led Pakistan through the ongoing political turmoil for the last decade. The two former clauses/articles were invoked to disqualify Nawaz Sharif and facilitate the rise of Imran Khan while 184(3) is being invoked by the Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) to turn the tide again in his favor by ensuring early elections. He said that both Imran and the government are sticking to their demands and making reconciliation impossible.

The army led by a new chief, Gen. Asim Munir has lost its control over both media and the judiciary and is not in a position to dictate the course of future politics. He is also not well disposed towards Imran and mutual suspicion characterises their approach towards each other. The tussle between the executive and the judiciary may lead to a constitutional deadlock if both these institutions do not stay within their limits. In such circumstances, Dr. Behuria said it is most likely that Pakistan would continue to be in a state of chronic turmoil. He indicated that the army chief was resorting to anti-India rhetoric which signals that he was trying to strengthen his position within the army and simultaneously it might be his own way of warming up to Imran Khan who is criticising the previous army chief for adopting a soft line on Kashmir. He believed that Imran Khan might win the coming elections and easily secure a majority on his own and given the support he is receiving from the people for his anti-army rhetoric, he might work towards securing civilian supremacy over the army. However, it was also probable that both the army chief and Imran might consider it wiser to strike a bargain and work together.

Comments and Questions

The floor was opened for questions and comments. The Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) pointed out that the anti-army rhetoric widely circulating on the internet today was never permitted earlier. He also questioned whether the present turmoil would prompt a genuine democratic transition in Pakistan. The scholars from the Institute contributed to a fruitful discussion. The discussion focused on an array of perspectives, from India's worries about the escalating disorder in the neighbourhood to the role of regional countries and perceptions of youth across Pakistan.

 

Report prepared by Ms. Sneha M, Research Analyst, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA

Col. Gurinder Pal Singh, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Integrating India’s North East Region in the Backdrop of “Act East Policy” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 24th April 2023. The session was moderated by Col. (Dr.) DPK Pillay,(Retd)., Research Fellow. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General of MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), the Deputy Director General of MP-IDSA and scholars of the Institute were in attendance.

Executive Summary

Act East Policy is a key foreign policy that aims to further strengthen India’s relationship with the South East Asian region through three ‘Cs’- Commerce, Connectivity and Culture. In the process of establishing connect with the South East/Asia Pacific region, integration of India’s North Eastern Region can be understood as both a precondition for the success, as well as a desirable outcome of the said policy. The need is to develop a robust and comprehensive strategy towards this end through an integrated approach. Challenges remain multi-dimensional that include insurgency, Indian Insurgent Group (IIG) camps, arms trade, and other governance and administrative issues. In order to fully utilise the untapped potential of the North Eastern region, strategies and their effective implementation is paramount.

Detailed Report

Col. (Dr.) DPK Pillay (Retd.) began the meeting with a brief introduction about Col. Gurinder Pal Singh.

Col. Gurinder Pal Singh began his presentation by putting forth a brief outline of his presentation that emphasised the challenges faced while incorporating the North Eastern Region within the context of the “Act East Policy”, and to present strategies derived from the ‘Net Assessment Process’ to address these challenges effectively. Col. Singh proceeded by giving a brief historical background and evolution of the physical as well as political composition of North Eastern States. The nomenclature ‘seven sisters’ was eventually evolved to ‘Ashtlakshmi’ with the inclusion of Sikkim within North Eastern fold in 2002. The diverse demographic composition of North Eastern Region is riddled with division on tribal lines and heterogeneity, further complicated by the improper state border demarcation.

The speaker then dwelled on the Act East Policy, announced by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the East Asia Summit in Myanmar in November 2014. The policy not only entails economic or foreign policy orientation rather it exhibits political, strategic and cultural characteristics. It is due to its extreme significance that institutional mechanisms for dialogue and cooperation have been established. All these mechanisms have been directed towards and driven by three overarching C’s- Commerce, Connectivity and Culture.

He further discussed in greater detail six challenges facing the North East Region- Insurgency, Indian Insurgence Group (IIG) camps, illegal arms trade, AFSPA, Peace Accords and other aspects. The government’s action on this entire front has to some extent been encouraging but lots need to be done so as to further the integration process. 

He then took the presentation to a ‘Net Assessment’ phase where he explained in detail the formulation of strategies based on the problem statement emanating from the situation on ground. For instance, in this case, integration of North East Region is the overall objective. To proceed ahead, scanning various internal and external factors impacting the region is required. After the detailed assessment of the region, as well as government’s own strength, suitable strategies have to be crafted out. The strategy must be clearly illustrative of what actually it entails, without any ambiguity. He went on to use this formulation in problem statements from a diverse set of landscape ranging from Governance, Economic, Cultural and Social Development strategies.

Col. Singh concluded the presentation with some of the key recommendations across three different landscapes- Governance, Socio-political and Economic. Under Governance, he emphasised upon inclusive growth model, enhancement of trust, transparency and governance benefits reaching to the grass root level as drivers to integrate the region. In this regard, he recommended streamlining the land laws to overcome the complex traditional system. This will help in land acquisition, encourage private enterprises and resolve ownership aspects involving tribal groups and other stakeholders. One of the important aspects is to increase North East representation in North Eastern Council and Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region.

In socio-political domain, Col, Singh recommended tasking Civil Society organisations, and other local organisations for participative contribution towards project monitoring, executing and implementation of government schemes. Further, he recommended opening higher education institutes and centres of excellence to further hone the much needed bridge between the North East Region and rest of India. In the economic domain, trade induced industrialisation, investment in communication infrastructure, designating NER as a Special Economic Zone can lead to increased investment, export promotion, infrastructure and skill development. Further, enhancing human resources can lead to numerous socio-economic benefits including increased productivity, investment, innovation, social development, social cohesion and sustainable development.

Comments and Questions

Col. (Dr.) DPK Pillay complimented the comprehensive presentation. He agreed to the contention that the number of casualties due to insurgency have significantly gone down due to a certain designed strategy being followed by the Armed Forces and the Police. He illustrated the three pronged strategy followed to deal with North East problem. The strategy entails, end to all inter-state disputes by 2022, no interference in indigenous socio-cultural life of tribals and enhancing economic growth in the region. He further agreed with most of the recommendations made by Col. Singh in his presentation.

The floor was opened for questions and comments. The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), and scholars of the Institute contributed to the discussion. In his remarks, Ambassador Chinoy emphasised on ‘national integration’ which is considered an important ongoing process. He believes that on the integration part India has done quite well, especially in the last few years. The period has witnessed resolution of unresolved boundary disputes between the states, forward movement, dialogues with various underground groups. Connectivity is another milestone achieved in the last few years in terms of construction of roads, highways, feeder connectivity and bridges. On the point of trade led development of the region, Ambassador Chinoy pointed out that trade needs proper transportation which under the “Act East Policy” is a problem as the Kaladan multi-model project, Tamu-Kalewa-Kalemyo project and other similar projects have been languishing for a long time. Airways led commerce is also not an option due to issues related to market connectivity and specific goods related problems.

Ambassador Chinoy further highlighted the need for mental acceptance and integration of North Eastern indigenously developed businesses which at the moment are dominated by West India. Lack of large scale industrialisation is notable too.

Col. Singh agreed with most of the observations brought forth by Amb. Chinoy and attributed most of the positive developments to ‘Political Will’.

Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) highlighted that Bangladesh (more specifically, Chittagong) forms the natural flow of the land. Hence cutting trees, mountains, terrains across north east for developmental purposes is not wholly sustainable. He further emphasised upon better diplomacy in terms of getting critical support from Bangladesh and Bhutan in tackling insurgency issues.

In response to Dr. Gulbin Sultana’s question regarding religious peace in the region, Col. Singh highlighted the Buddhist, Hindu and Christian circuit as an instrument to cater to the religious aspirations of the people.

In response to Dr. Smruti Pattanaik’s question on free movement regimes and free trade, Col. Singh highlighted that a lot more needs to be done to control and regulate the movement across the India-Myanmar Border.

Dr. Pushpita Das highlighted the traditional nature of tribal society as the crux of the problem. She stated that the need is to change the nature of society in order for development initiatives to percolate down to the grass-root level.

Col. Manish Rana pointed out the paradox of mixing economic and cultural integration. According to him, preservation of cultural uniqueness is more important than the resolve over cultural integration.

Mr. Jason Wahlang asked about the prospects of integration in the longer run in light of tribal-non tribal clashes witnessed in the North Eastern Region. Col. Singh asserted that there are multiple socio-political issues which certainly impact the prospects of integration. He cited the example of Citizenship Amendment Act that was misconstrued in North East as targeted against indigenous inhabitants, while a lot of minorities have benefited from the Act on the western borders.

Report prepared by Mr Abhishek Verma, Research Analyst, Internal Security Centre, MP-IDSA

Col. (Dr) Divakaran Padma Kumar Pillay, Research Fellow, Non-Traditional Security Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, spoke on “Sustainable Development Goals: India's Challenges and Accomplishments” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 10 April 2023. The meeting was moderated by Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha, Senior Fellow and Centre Coordinator, NTS Centre, MP-IDSA. Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) and the scholars of the Institute participated in the discussion.

Executive Summary

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted by the United Nations in 2015. The basic objective set forth by these SDGs was to eradicate poverty, protect the planet, and ensure global peace and prosperity by 2030. Nation states are taking desired actions to meet these SDGs as per their national capacities. In the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a significant amount of economic resources have been drained that could have otherwise been used to meet the objectives of global SDGs. India, in comparison to many other states, has done significantly well in achieving its SDGs.

Detailed Report

Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha gave a brief introduction about the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and highlighted that SDGs require collective global action and India in the past has shown remarkable success in achieving some of these, while others still require significant action. After his brief introductory remarks, Dr. Sinha requested Col. Pillay to make his presentation.

Col. DPK Pillay started his presentation by highlighting the need for sustainable development. He mentioned that climate change and the over-exploitation of resources has impacted global food production and has also resulted in global water scarcity. In his presentation, he highlighted various global initiatives on sustainable development including the Stockholm Conference in 1972, the Earth Summit in 1992, the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and the Paris Agreement in 2015. Col Pillay also discussed three key elements of sustainable development i.e. Environmental Sustainability, Social Sustainability and Economic Sustainability. Highlighting the challenges to sustainable development in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he mentioned that the conflict has drained a significant amount of economic resources that could have otherwise been used to meet the objectives of global SDGs. Referring to the emerging global shortages of food, fuel and fertilizer, Col. Pillay mentioned that the conflict in Ukraine has significantly impacted global supply chains.

In assessing India’s SDGs, he highlighted the key roles played by various ministries and organizations, including the NITI Aayog, the Ministry of External Affairs, the Finance Ministry, the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, and the Ministry of Panchayati Raj. Col. Pillay further discussed India’s initiatives such as Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, National Food Security Act, Swachh Bhatart Abhiyan and Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation that marks India’s important contributions in achieving SDGs. Col. Pillay mentioned that despite these positive initiatives there are several challenges that hinder India's pace in achieving its national SDGs. These include financial and budgetary constraints, the issue of overpopulation and technological limitations. Col. Pillay concluded with an optimistic universal prayer highlighting India’s ethos in achieving common global good and SDGs.

Questions and Comments

Post the presentation, Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha invited Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd), for his comments, and then opened the floor to participants for their comments and questions.

Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) highlighted the role of the Urja Ganga Gas distribution pipeline that provided cheaper gas to 20 cities and towns in the hinterland. He mentioned that as we are in the process of moving towards achieving SDGs, this ongoing transition is also leaving carbon footprints. He asked the speaker regarding the possible option that India could take to limit such footprints. 

Mr. Arvind Khare asked the speaker about India’s approach to social security and social justice in achieving SDG targets. He further enquired about India’s approach in building adequate facilities and infrastructure for Divyang Children.

Dr. Swasti Rao asked the speaker to explain and differentiate between SDGs and Paris Agreement goals.

Dr. Adil Rasheed commented on the interlinkages between political structures and their role in SDGs. He also asked the speaker to comment on the role of modern political structures in meeting various challenges of the state’s SDGs.  

Col. DPK Pillay gave extensive and insightful remarks on all the comments and questions raised by the participants.

Report prepared by Bipandeep Sharma, Research Analyst, Non-Traditional Security Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi.