Events

MP-IDSA is organising an interaction with Ambassador Michael Pulch, EU’s Coordinator for Coordinated Maritime Presence (CMP) on Monday, 13 February 2023 at 1400 hours in Room No. 005, Ground Floor.

Major General (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, Retd, Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA will chair the session.

Capt. Anurag Bisen (Indian Navy), Member Non-Traditional Security Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses spoke on “India’s G20 Presidency: Opportunity to Resume Engagement in the Arctic” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 6 February 2023. The meeting was moderated by Col. (Dr.) D.P.K. Pillay. Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, (Retd.) and scholars of the Institute participated in the discussion.

Executive Summary

The suspension of the Arctic Council post Russia-Ukraine conflict has resulted in the suspension of all forms of scientific cooperation with Russia. As a result of this suspension, global climate change mitigation efforts are severely impacted. India’s G-20 Presidency offers an opportunity for the G20 to strive for resumption of scientific cooperation in the Arctic.

Detailed Report

Col. (Dr.) D.P.K. Pillay introduced the topic to the audience and highlighted the implications for the Arctic. In his opening remarks, he mentioned that India’s engagements with the Arctic date back to 1920 when the country under British Dominion signed the Spitsbergen Treaty. He highlighted that the environmental transitional occurring in the Arctic has direct implications for Indian monsoons, which have the potential of impacting the country's food security. Col. Pillay then invited Capt. Anurag Bisen (IN) to make his presentation on the topic.

Capt. Anurag Bisen (IN) started his presentation by highlighting that India as Chair of the G20 Presidency could push for re-starting dialogue amongst all the Arctic States. He further highlighted that there is a need for the revival of all form of scientific cooperation within the Arctic Council as well as through all other existing mechanisms of cooperation that currently remain suspended. Capt. Bisen highlighted that post-Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, all the seven Arctic States have suspended their cooperation with Russia in the region. This includes the suspension of the Arctic Council, European Commission and the Barents Euro-Arctic Council. Capt. Bisen, in his presentation further mentioned that Finland and Sweden’s decision to join NATO has further enhanced complexities for regional cooperation in the Arctic. In his talk, he also highlighted major climate tipping points in the Arctic that play a crucial role in regulating global environmental conditions. He asserted that any disruptions in the thresholds of these Arctic tipping points would have grave regional and global implications. He further mentioned that the Arctic remains globally connected and that whatever happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic. Capt. Bisen also emphasized the fact that the Arctic is heating four times faster than other parts of the Earth. He mentioned that this in the near future could have challenges of sea level rise, implications for coastal habitats, soil erosion, impacts on wetlands and loss of fish, birds and other plant life.  He also pointed out that since 40 per cent of the world’s population lives within 100 km of the coastline, rising sea levels are expected to flood hundreds of cities worldwide.

Capt. Bisen  also explained the concept of ‘Arctic amplification’ and the role of methane in further warming the Arctic ice. He then highlighted that since the suspension of the Arctic Council, scientific research of the five Asian Observer States in the Council namely India, China, Japan, South Korea and Singapore have been significantly impacted. Capt. Bisen mentioned that though the world is facing geopolitical tussles due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, it is difficult to neglect Russia in Arctic decision-making. He also mentioned that since Russia accounts for 53 per cent of the Arctic Ocean coastline, ignoring Russia in Arctic scientific research would not serve global scientific interests.

In the final part of his presentation, Capt. Bisen explained that scientific research in the Arctic is of great interest to India. He mentioned the scientific interlinkages between the Arctic, the Antarctic and the Himalayas and explained their importance in shaping Indian and global climatic phenomena. Citing the six pillars of India’s engagement in the Arctic as outlined in the country’s Arctic Policy document, Capt. Bisen mentioned that these clearly justify India’s approach and future intentions in the region. Moreover, he also highlighted that the theme of India’s G20 presidency i.e. Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam- the world is but one family, also finds resonance in India’s Arctic Policy. He, therefore, asserted that India through its G20 Presidency should call for resuming the existing cooperation in the Arctic. He justified his stance by further mentioning that 6 out of the 8 Arctic Council Permanent Member States, and 12 out of the 13 Observer States are part of G20 member countries. In his concluding remarks, Capt. Bisen pointed out that Environment and Climate Sustainability Working Groups in G20 could become key instruments. Lastly, he also recommended that the ‘Sherpa Track’ could also be used to expeditiously revive scientific engagements in the Arctic.

Questions and Comments

Following the presentation, Col. (Dr.) D.P.K. Pillay invited the Deputy Director General and  the participants for their comments and questions.

Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) complimented Capt. Bisen for his presentation and highlighted MP-IDSA’s meeting with the Danish delegation on various Arctic issues in the past. He also mentioned that MP-IDSA has always remained at the forefront of conducting Arctic-related events. He mentioned that the institution recently in collaboration with the Ministry of Earth Sciences and NSCS conducted a one-day seminar on the Arctic. Lastly, he highlighted that the Arctic tipping points remain important for India as these bear inter-linkages with Indian Himalayas, therefore India's scientific collaboration with all the Arctic states remains extremely crucial.

Col. Vivek Chadha (Retd.) asked the speaker regarding his recent visit to Geneva and asked if this idea of restarting Arctic scientific cooperation through G20 found any traction with the representatives of the Member States there.

Ms. Ruchita Beri asked the speaker if this suspension of scientific cooperation with Russia in the Arctic was only as the result of the Ukraine crisis, or was there already developing geopolitical competition between Western Arctic States and Russia, that in the shadow of the Ukraine crisis resulted in the termination of East-West cooperation in the region.

Ms. Mayuri Banerjee made a query regarding the military exercises of States in the Arctic and how these hinder scientific cooperation in the region.

Dr. Adil Rasheed commented on the geopolitics of climate change and questioned the speaker regarding the Western States' responses if India takes a lead on such issues through its G20 Presidency.

Mr. Bipandeep Sharma commented on the issue of suspension of the Arctic Council and termination of all forms of scientific cooperation with Russia. He questioned that if the  existing mechanism of cooperation through the Arctic Council fails to restart any form of cooperation with Russia, how can G20 do it differently?  He further highlighted that Norway, which is going to be the next Chair of the Arctic Council in May 2023, also does not hint at restarting any form of such cooperation with Russia in near future.

Dr. Uttam Sinha complimented the speaker for his presentation and commented on the point of ‘Arctic Exceptionalism’ mentioned by the speaker in his presentation. Dr. Sinha mentioned that the concept does not exist in current times as the world has become largely interconnected. This interconnectedness is further linked to climate change, where any transition occurring in the Arctic has global linkages. Dr. Sinha further mentioned that the Arctic Council till recently remained a successful forum to address various Arctic issues and this ongoing suspension has brought it into a unique conundrum. Dr. Sinha lastly pointed out that the world need not to forget the issues of Arctic indigenous communities that are most vulnerable to climatic transitions occurring in the region.

Capt. Bisen gave a detailed explanation to all these comments and questions asked by the scholars at the Monday Morning Meeting.

Report prepared by Mr. Bipandeep Sharma, Research Analyst, Non-Traditional Security Centre, MP-IDSA.

On 23 January 2023, Ms. Shruti Pandalai, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA, made a presentation on “Key Developments in the Indo-Pacific: Perceptions in South East Asia” at the Monday Morning Meeting. Cmde. Abhay Kumar Singh (Retd.) moderated the session. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General of MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), the Deputy Director General of MP-IDSA and scholars of the Institute were in attendance to enrich the discussion.

Executive Summary

With China's aggressively increasing interest in global leadership, the Indo-Pacific region still serves as the pivot of global geopolitics. Leading powers in the region are expected to demonstrate political will and capability as nations, large and small, try to offset the effects of increasing strategic competition. The quest for chances for practical cooperation, a rethinking of security and a balance between economic and security cooperation with the rise in militarization are some important trends that are apparent from the region's expanding geopolitics. As observed, there are concentrated endeavours to strengthen the capabilities of Indo-Pacific nations in order to provide them with realistic alternatives that go beyond binaries created around ideological and political contestation.

Detailed Report

Cmde. Abhay introduced the topic with a brief overview of the developments concerning Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific in the recent past. Thereafter, he invited Ms. Shruti Pandalai , the speaker, to make a presentation on the subject.

Ms. Pandalai began by noting the continuance of the strategic high tide in the Indo-Pacific, which has been long in the making. Many nations have been working in different combinations and permutations to make sure that a shared foundation for cooperation in the region emerges. She stated that the goal of these efforts is to create an equal, rule-based system in which unilateralism is restrained. Ms. Pandalai highlighted a few broad trends that have emerged with distinguishable features in the Indo-Pacific region.  The first broad trend highlighted by her was “issue-based coalition” which is driven by function. The collaboration of like-minded nations in bilateral, multilateral, and plurilateral forms was the second trend Ms. Pandalai emphasised.  Focused effort on capacity building of Indo-Pacific countries was another broad trend highlighted by Ms. Pandalai.

According to Ms. Pandalai, the conflict in Ukraine, the escalation of the cross-Strait problem, and China's threatening activities in the South China Sea have all helped raise awareness of the Indo-Pacific region and the QUAD's capacity to deliver on both the economic and security fronts.

Further, Ms. Pandalai provided insights regarding key developments in the later part of 2022 vis-à-vis Indo-Pacific. National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023, which was passed into law, is intended to strengthen the strategic depth and material capability of Washington's defence strategy, according to Ms. Pandalai.

Ms. Pandalai observed that the Indo-Pacific region is closely watching Biden’s signature achievements such as Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act. According to Ms. Pandalai, these decisions have created significant friction with US allies in Europe and Asia. This was substantiated by citing articles wherein the EU, South Korea and the Director General of WTO have criticised these legislations. Ms. Pandalai held that these legislations by the US are seen by the countries in the region as “re-shoring” over “friend-shoring”. Ms. Pandalai also discussed various overtures to Southeast Asia which have been offered by the US recently.

Further, Ms. Pandalai highlighted the three transformational security documents that were released by Japan recently. Ms. Pandalai pointed out three reasons for the change in Japan’s attitude which include the recent behaviour and activities of three revisionist powers China, North Korea and Russia. The National Security Strategy, as pointed out by Ms. Pandalai, has received mixed reactions from South Korea and certain Southeast Asian countries. Regarding further bolstering of Japan-US alliance through new agreements and meetings, Ms. Pandalai held that the summits sent out a clear message about bilateral security commitments being of prime importance for both the US and Japan and that this alliance is regarded by both countries as an instrument to project their combined influence to promote stability in the region.

Further, Ms. Pandalai highlighted the increased cooperation between Australia and the US in various domains ranging from security to climate cooperation through ministerial consultations like AUSMIN.  Ms. Pandalai opined that the notion of strategic equilibrium that has been proposed by Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong was necessary as Southeast Asian and Pacific countries have been sceptical in choosing any formal alliance or coalition. Ms. Pandalai also highlighted Australia’s outreach efforts to South Pacific countries like the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu along with the latest overtures to ASEAN.

Ms. Pandalai also highlighted recent changes in the relationship between India and ASEAN as it evolved into a complete strategic alliance. Ms. Pandalai stated that ASEAN and India have decided to strengthen their maritime links and work together to combat cybercrime, transnational crime, and terrorism. Ms. Pandalai emphasised South Korea's ambitious Indo-Pacific strategy, highlighting the country's commitment to enhancing supply chain ties with Southeast Asia and the rise in arms exports to the region.

With regard to the current scenario of the US-China relationship, Ms. Pandalai contended that Southeast Asia is concerned about the guardrails in the relationship between these two giants which is at risk of irreversible damage. Ms. Pandalai held that the Southeast Asian nations will move pragmatically when it comes to sharing benefits with China and would be vigilant at the same time when it comes to asserting their agencies. Ms. Pandalai also cited a report regarding the dwindling of Southeast Asia’s public support to China as compared to the US.

With respect to ASEAN’s perspective on the Taiwan issue, Ms. Pandalai stated that ASEAN holds a “One China Policy”. Ms. Pandalai also highlighted the various approaches of ASEAN countries to the Ukraine situation at the G20 Summit and claimed that ASEAN has consistently refrained from criticising Russia while also showing greater consideration for Russia.

Regarding the South China Sea issue, Ms. Pandalai stated that breakthroughs are unlikely in the negotiations on SCS ‘code of conduct’ this year because currently, Southeast Asia has its own economic priorities. Ms. Pandalai was of the opinion that SCS will continue to face twin dynamics of confrontation and cooperation.

 With regard to the question of Southeast Asia’s cooperation on the Indo-Pacific issue, Ms. Pandalai stated that ASEAN is open to QUAD’s involvement in the region, though in tandem with ASEAN centrality. In concluding remarks of her presentation, Ms. Pandalai held that India and ASEAN can lean on each other as India rejects any bloc kind of security cooperation.

Following the presentation, Cmde. Abhay invited the Director General, Ambassador Chinoy to offer his comments Amb. Chinoy observed that, though late, now the US looks at Southeast Asia in terms of its economic and developmental needs whereas earlier it looked at the region largely from the lens of security.  Amb. Chinoy also highlighted that now China due to its enormous resources has got a strong presence in the region and that Southeast Asia’s likeness to China is greater as compared to the USA. Also, Amb. Chinoy contended that Southeast Asia wants to manage the relationship with both US and China and would not simply bandwagon. While concluding, Amb. Chinoy emphasised further development of relations not only with ASEAN collectively but also at the individual level, with the Southeast Asian countries.

Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) also made observations about the major happenings in the region and contended that these vigorous activities by different stakeholders in the Indo-Pacific mark turbulent times for global geopolitics.

Q & A Session

When the floor was opened for Q&A sessions, a scholar asked a question regarding the relevance of ASEAN centrality and ASEAN’s views of US engagement on economic issues. Responding to these questions, Ms. Pandalai observed that since assuaging of ASEAN’s concerns by QUAD countries, repeated efforts have been made to keep ASEAN at the centre of decision-making vis-à-vis the Indo-Pacific. On the issue of ASEAN’s need for the US, Ms. Pandalai held that the US is vital for the economic development of Southeast Asia as recently most of the ASEAN countries became a signatory of the US’ initiated Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity.

On the question of whether the Ukraine conflict has diverted US attention away from the Indo-Pacific, Ms. Pandalai responded that this hasn’t been the case so far.

This report was prepared by Mr. Mohammed Shoaib Raza, Intern, Southeast Asia and Oceania Centre, MP-IDSA.

The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi organised a discussion on the book “The Russia-Ukraine War: Lessons Learnt” authored by Major General G.D. Bakshi (Retd.) on 11 January 2023. The book discussion was chaired by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA. Commodore Abhay Singh (Retd.) and Dr. Swasti Rao participated from the institute as discussants. The discussion was attended by Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipan Bakshi, Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA. MP-IDSA scholars were present.

Executive Summary

As the war in Ukraine lingers on unexpectedly towards the one-year mark, there are many lessons to be garnered from the disruptions in the post-Soviet sphere. In this context, Major General G.D. Bakshi’s book raises a pressing question: What short-term and long-term lessons can be learned from the conflict and what implications does the conflict have for India?

Detailed Report

In his opening remarks, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy stated that the conflict in Ukraine has lingered on unexpectedly and the Russian special military operation has been met with great resistance and pushback. The reverses on the war front have not pushed back Russia from legislating new geography and a consequent redrawing of the map. The west has backed Ukraine in the form of weapons and intelligence but a question arises as to how long would this endure. There is also the creation of a false narrative that India must take up a side between the two opposing forces. The conflict has broader strategic implications for India. The Chair raised some important points. Firstly, that the treaty alliances are not a pre-requisite for allies to come to one’s aid. Secondly, a military conflict could easily erupt if any redlines are crossed. Thirdly, he questioned the potential for escalation between nuclear states, particularly in the Indian context with two adversarial nuclear states on the border. Fourthly, he brought up the similarity between the two conflicts (Russia-Ukraine, China-Taiwan) particularly in the irredentist aspects. Fifthly, he questioned whether we have entered an era of protracted conflicts where no country can prevail over another. Lastly, he asked with India’s modernisation of its forces and its aim for self-reliance in the defence sector, what lessons can India draw for its own security needs.

The author, at the outset, stated that seventy per cent of India’s military equipment is of Russian origin therefore, the outcome of the conflict is of major interest to India. He feels that Ukraine is acting as a proxy of NATO against Russia. Due to the nuclear standoff, most felt that wars would be short and intense and based on this the ammunition scaling has been limited. As a military analyst, he feels that the war would be extended for a longer period and there are serious implications for international security. He stressed that the world has come full circle, and Russia has altered its strategy by returning to World War II strategies and changing from brigades to divisions. The speaker predicts that there would be some major changes in the war shortly. He stated that the United States pushed Russia to a conflict by violating the redlines through NATO’s endless eastward expansion. He stated that the world is facing a biological war, and brought out information about the presence of thirty-two biological labs being set up in Ukraine.

According to the speaker, the nature of warfare has changed from low-intensity, short-duration to high-intensity, long-duration warfare. He stated that ‘Clausewitz is back in fashion’. The offence-over-defence dynamic has changed to a new equilibrium of defence-over offence. He stated that the Russians' weakest link was the conscripts, which is a prime lesson to be learned for India. Levels of battlefield transparency are simply unprecedented which makes surprise impossible to achieve. The speaker stressed that war is a test of national will and stamina, and it is the most for downsizing of the armed forces. Armies across the world are increasing their sizes and this is not an era of just high-tech but also mass mobilisations. Downsizing a force in the current international scenario could be dangerous.

Concluding his talk, Maj. Gen. G.D. Bakshi (Retd.) brought out some of the lessons to be learned from the conflict. According to him, the lack of armed forces is an issue and increased manpower is a solution. Artillery is a winning factor and introducing it at the fastest possible speed is a necessity. Underutilisation of Airpower should not happen. Nuclear backdrops can happen between two nuclear states. Met factors could cause serious problems if not followed. No blind spots should be present.

Following the presentation, the discussants were invited for comments. Cmde. Abhay K. Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow, Military Affairs Centre, remarked that Clausewitz was never out of fashion. Since the conflict began, various sweeping predictions were made on the future of the war based on the lack of or sketchy information. Russia did plan for a short war, however, after almost a year there is no certainty about where it would sway. He stressed the need for considering necessary deductive inferences both preliminary and tentative. He stated that contrary to the popular image of the tenacious Ukrainians stopping Russian hordes, a more complex picture has emerged.  The propaganda value of the west’s equipment has reduced as the war continued. He praised the author for his efforts but stressed the need for a sharper editorial effort, particularly in the footnoting of important resources. 

Dr. Swasti Rao, Associate Fellow, Europe and Eurasia Centre, in her remarks focused on several points. She stated that the need for a narrative on the experiences of the Eastern Europeans. Though Ukraine is corrupt, they have attempted reforms in every sector. There are loopholes in Russia’s policies towards Eastern Europe. Sanctions have weakened the Russian war machinery. China is having the last laugh and they have not done anything to assist Russia. It is a time for Russia to diversify its fossil fuels export. The war has led to NATO expansion to the Nordics. Germany’s rise as a military power from diversification to missile systems after realising its vulnerabilities is important to watch out for. European diversification efforts are commendable, which would mean less dependence on Russia and more on Europe. India has been more involved in Eurasia and increases its presence. In her conclusion, she stated that a diminished Russia is not the best option for India.

The Chair, Ambassador Sujan. R. Chinoy, in his comments, discussed the economic angle of bearing down and dismantling of the economy during the Soviet Union era and the attempt to replicate it in the current scenario. Amb. Chinoy stated that it is important to also examine the attrition that the United States economy has suffered in the previous decades and the long-term wars against insurgencies that the United States had to fight and the impact. Every war brings about new technology, with technology evolution, the demand for manpower may also reduce therefore, the question is does technology today help in determining what is mass (manpower) in the current context?

During the Q and A session, Col G.S. Gill, Research Fellow, asked the author about the Agniveer scheme. Dr. Rajorshi Roy, Associate Fellow, enquired about Russia’s ability to meet its defence commitments to India given that its priority would be on the replenishment of its reserves. Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha, Senior Fellow, queried about the limited use of sorties against Ukraine. Col. Rajneesh Singh, Research Fellow, asked about the war objectives of the United States in the current conflict.

Responding to comments and remarks, Maj. Gen. G.D. Bakshi (Retd.) stated that he had personal meetings concerning the Agniveer scheme with the upper echelons of the government and requested to make changes to it. With reference to Dr. Rajorshi Roy’s question, whether Russia can meet India’s demand, the author stressed that there would be a reduction and is all the more reason to become Aatmanirbhar. Regarding Dr Sinha’s question, he stated that the overreliance on S-400 has failed and that it has not been able to live up to the hype.

Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, delivered the Vote of Thanks and commented that Russia is a reliable friend, a P-5 member and the only reliable veto partner. With regard to the current situation in Ukraine he stressed that there is no negotiation space and the term ‘win’ is still not defined.

Report was prepared by Dr. Jason Wahlang, Research Analyst, Europe and Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA.