Rajiv Nayan replies: The NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) does not prohibit the development of nuclear submarines or the transfer of nuclear materials used as propellants in naval reactors/nuclear submarines. The CTBT (Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty) is not relevant for nuclear submarines or related materials. The NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) guidelines do have restrictions for enriched materials and facilities for the purpose. However, NSG is a control and not a prohibition body.
G. Balachandran replies: With respect to the Indian membership, the NSG members can be grouped under three categories:
1) Those who are satisfied with the NSG conditionalities already accepted by India at the time of the 2008 NSG exemption and are in favour of admitting India without any further concessions from India. This group would probably be the largest of the three groups.
India will have to make a judicious political decision on accepting any additional criteria that the NSG might come up with as a precondition for accepting its membership application.
Given that the NSG may not be able to withhold the India membership question for long, in spite of China’s inconsistent positions, it would be unwise on India’s part to forfeit any advantage it has on the SCS issue.
Membership in the NSG is essential to safeguard future Indian interests in nuclear commerce, even if it is not a necessary condition for India to engage in nuclear exports.
Until the next plenary in Switzerland in 2017 or the interim meeting before the end of 2016, India should actively engage with all members and particularly with those who have expressed doubts or raised queries, including China.
The outcome of the NSG plenary in Seoul is most likely to be the admission of India to the NSG, denial or postponement of a decision on Pakistan’s application, but deferment of both announcements to a later date.
There is no documentary evidence to substantiate the Pakistani claim that Pakistan had entered into any voluntary safeguards agreement with the IAEA in respect of KANUPP.
Has South Africa buckled under Chinese pressure to oppose India’s membership in the NSG? While this cannot yet be confirmed, there are strong indicators that it could be a possibility.
NSG and China’s Grand Strategic Flip-flops: Some Plausible Explanations
Given that the NSG may not be able to withhold the India membership question for long, in spite of China’s inconsistent positions, it would be unwise on India’s part to forfeit any advantage it has on the SCS issue.