As concerns over a potential conflict in the region grow, the pressing issue of what a conflict would mean for the price of international crude oil needs to be addressed urgently.
While 11 of the 12 prescribed sanctions will have little or no effect on India-Russia defence relations, the twelfth, unless waived, has the potential to completely derail the India-US Defence and Strategic Partnership.
An evaluation of the non-negotiable elements of the CISMOA Boilerplate agreement does not show any element that will have any unavoidable security risks for India.
Ever since India and Pakistan conducted their nuclear tests in 1998, it has been the favourite pastime of many analysts writing on nuclear issues to cast the strategic stability in South Asia in dark tones. This urban myth is primarily a Western invention although at times writers in the subcontinent as well have taken some part in it.
While the provisions of the Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) are unlikely to be imposed on India anytime soon, it is nonetheless likely to prove a dampener on an otherwise booming defence relationship between India and the United States.
The time is opportune now for the international community to press for the start of bilateral discussions between the US and North Korea leading to the full participation of the UNSC in the final negotiations.
Removing the Kim regime’s fears about regime change and reducing the insecurity caused by North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests to the US and its allies are the essentials that must be addressed in a UN-led multinational dialogue to forge a negotiated settlement.
No new initiative likely on strategic cooperation front, and complaints on H1B visa issue unlikely to fall on receptive ears since available data does not support the current Indian urban myth.
The formal inclusion of the Munitions List within the SCOMET framework explicitly brings the defence industry under the purview of India’s global commitment to non-proliferation.
India’s current nuclear doctrine does not call for an automatic massive retaliation for Pakistan’s use of TNWs against Indian troops on Pakistan soil. However, this does not mean that such an attack will go unanswered.
The West Asian Crisis and Oil Price Expectations
As concerns over a potential conflict in the region grow, the pressing issue of what a conflict would mean for the price of international crude oil needs to be addressed urgently.