Obama’s signal that the United States seeks to exit in 18 months will be viewed with scepticism by fence sitters in Afghanistan who will identify the victor as the one who endures.
Apart from the reluctance to move beyond viewing the India-US relationship through the prism of US-China or even US-Pakistan ties, the Indian political leadership and the strategic community have so far failed to define India’s role in the growing partnership with the United States.
Linked to the terrorist goal of intimidation of a targeted population, there is an inherent objective to spread fear and undermine the declared values of the targeted political system by pushing a frightened society and government into overreaction. On the other hand, the counter-insurgent state wishes to downplay the impact of the terrorist attack and works towards keeping the morale of the population as well as the security forces intact. In this battle, the media plays an important and influential role.
As a harbinger of change in a conflict ridden country, the Afghan presidential elections being held on August 20 are important for both the people of Afghanistan and the international community. Hamid Karzai’s government is seen as weak, ineffective and corrupt. During the last eight years, progress has not been commensurate with the people’s expectations. With rising insecurity and instability, the international community views a credible election as a key plank in the stabilisation of Afghanistan.
As the Prime Minister and the Union Home Minister emphasized in the Chief Minister's Conference on Internal security in August and again in the Conference of the Director Generals of State Police Forces in September 2009, on the need to modernize the Police force of the country as an anti-dote to the problem of terrorism/ insurgency/ left-wing extremism, the task remains enormous and Herculean.
Despite the instant denial issued by the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) of its involvement in the November 26 Mumbai terrorist attacks, it is clear that the attacks were the latest manifestation of the terrorist grouping's engorged war – the extension of Jihad much beyond its traditional hunting ground of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) to the Indian heartland. Abdullah Ghaznavi, speaking on behalf of the Lashkar, told TV channels in the early hours of November 27: ‘LeT condemns such acts and we have no link with those responsible for such acts’.
An amicable resolution of issues between America and Europe on addressing the Afghan quagmire is unlikely given that the end state is not clearly defined.
The raging Taliban-led insurgency in Afghanistan underlines the limits of the use of military force. The lack of visible progress on the reconstruction activity and prevailing insecurity has alienated the Afghan populace in the remote villages of South and East Afghanistan. Given that the military option alone has limited utility in Counter-insurgency (COIN), there is a need to exercise an 'out-of-the-box' option to address the present stalemate.
Obama’s Afghan Strategy: Surge or Retreat?
Obama’s signal that the United States seeks to exit in 18 months will be viewed with scepticism by fence sitters in Afghanistan who will identify the victor as the one who endures.