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  • Stridency to Flippancy: Diplomatic wrangle over North Korea at G-8 and G-20

    The issue at stake is the US upholding and expanding its role as the key shaper of geopolitics in Northeast Asia, and China unwilling to be sidelined by the United States.

    July 07, 2010

    Fairy Tale of American Decline and China's Rise

    Has the power and influence of the United States declined in recent years? Does the current global recession, the outcome of the US invasion of Iraq and the resilience of the Taliban in Afghanistan provide adequate rationale to profess waning of US influence? Has China's power and influence grown to an extent that can effortlessly put it on the top of the global hierarchy of power? Is the US–China interdependence equitable enough to work as a deterrent against unbolted conflict?

    July 2010

    A Growing Technological Gap with China?

    The drivers for sustaining the decades-long growth of the Chinese economy are the subject of enduring conjecture, controversy and even wonder. From a US$1 trillion economy in the 1980s, China's GDP has crossed the US$4 trillion mark and is vying with Japan for the status of the number two economy in the world. China has now set itself the task of becoming a major research and development (R&D) power in the medium-term, signalling its ‘arrival’ as a major power.

    July 2010

    India’s strategic advantage over China in Africa

    Focusing on specific sectors, beyond the options much in vogue with offensive emulationists or passive singularists, will help India to clarify its priorities, optimize its policy-making process and infuse its Africa policy with greater strategic depth.

    June 30, 2010

    Sumit Sinha asked: What is the logic for raising of Mountain Strike Corps in the East and how does it affect the Balance of Power given China’s numerical superiority?

    Rumel Dahiya replies:India shares land borders in the North East with Bangladesh, Myanmar, China, Bhutan and Nepal. The terrain is mountainous which requires a higher density of troops for defence. Presently, only six mountain divisions are deployed in the North East. Considering the length of the land border to be defended and the involvement of the Army for internal security duties it was felt that the force levels have to be augmented.

    India does not covet the territory of its neighbours. However, it must be prepared at all times to defend its own territory against any hostile neighbour. Since its formations on the Western borders will take time to redeploy in case of war in the North East, it was assessed that additional formations will have to be raised and located in the North East itself. The formations being raised are neither China specific nor earmarked for an offensive inside China’s territory. However, these could be employed both for defensive and offensive operations depending upon the requirement.

    It is true that China has upgraded its communication and logistic infrastructure in TAR tremendously, which gives it a capability to move a large number of offensive formations to the Indo-Tibet border in a relatively short period and sustain them logistically over a long period. The terrain across the border also facilitates this movement and sustenance. Although relations with China are improving gradually, but the build of Chinese capability and the opacity of its decision making process and rapid pace of military modernisation lead to suspicion about its intentions.

    Looking at the military balance, even after raising the two mountain divisions, the numerical superiority in manpower alone will still be favourable to China by a factor of at least 1:2, if not more. And since the military balance is not a factor of number of troops alone, the overall superiority in combat potential will continue to be enjoyed by China till India upgrades its infrastructure, improves long range fire power, C4I2 capability, its air power and missile capability. It is felt that the two divisions being raised will merely suffice to plug gaps in India’s defensive deployment in the North East for the present.

    Ankur asked: China has been developing area denial capabilities. I want to ask whether this is a long term strategy or a stop gap method for short term gain.

    Ramesh V. Phadke replies: Obviously not. "No Chinese strategy is ever short term and hence area denial is also not short term. In fact, China's westward expansion and its quest to control the whole of South China Sea, has far bigger consequences as they would slowly, gradually but surely severely constrain the elbow space that India has or needs to conduct its foreign relations. India would find itself in what I can only term a 'grid lock'.

    Sanket Telang asked: Why Doesn't India Develop Dual use Port Facilities with countries like Vietnam and Cambodia like China is doing in IOR?

    Udai Bhanu Singh replies: The Indian Navy (IN) has both security and economic interests in seeking out port facilities in countries like Vietnam and Cambodia. IN regularly holds naval exercises (Milan) with other navies (including from Southeast Asian countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore and Thailand). IN ships frequent Vietnamese ports like Ho Chi Minh City and Haiphong; recently, between May 30 and June 2, 2010, INS Ranjit and INS Kulish docked in these ports. India has an arrangement with Vietnam for this purpose. Usually, advance information is sought for berthing facility and logistic supplies. It forms part of IN’s diplomatic exercise in peace time. (Interactions such as these at their basic level may be viewed as a CBM and at their most intense as an alliance partnership). It is assumed that the commitments that nations make for war time eventuality would be of a different order.

    Economic Crises, Currencies and Geopolitical Turning Points

    The serial financial crises have exposed deep fault lines in the international financial system, and have prompted a search for a better and more stable global financial structure.

    June 14, 2010

    The Uyghur Question in Contemporary China

    This article examines the policies the Chinese state has taken towards the Uyghur Muslim community in Xinjiang since the Cultural Revolution and tries to analyse to what extent have these changed with time. The article argues that the Uyghur community has been seen as a threat to the stability of the state, which is why harsh measures have been directed towards this ethnic group. The party has tried to maintain control over these groups by force by attempting to confine all forms of religious activity and by suppressing any independent body.

    May 2010

    China’s String of Pearls and India’s Enduring Tactical Advantage

    Not only would the presence of Chinese vessels present no real existential threat to Indian naval dominance in the region, it would also, paradoxically, provide the Indian Navy with a far greater degree of tactical flexibility in the event of a future conflict with China, be it on land or at sea.

    June 08, 2010

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