Is Xi Jinping in Control for the Fourth Term? A Reality Check

Xi Jinping has amassed more personal power than any Chinese leader in decades. Since becoming General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 2012, Xi has systematically centralised authority abolishing presidential term limits, installing loyalists and also purging them. This article endeavours to examine the current state of Xi’s control by analysing two competing theories of ‘Xi losing control amid emerging fissures’ and that ‘Xi remains in full control’. Xi’s aggressive purge strategy has indeed concentrated power in his hands, but also set in a deep-seated insecurity at the top leading to internal power dynamics, abolishing informal rule of elders, perceived conflict with PLA on sacking of senior officers. This likely paranoia and various other factors have also led to some social and economic downturn affecting his leadership. A detailed assessment of all such factors led to likely conclusion that Xi is still in full control and shall be re-elected in the 21st CPC, less some black swan event.