Asia 2030: The Unfolding Future

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About the Book

This book is an effort to understand how the future will unfold in Asia 2030. It is important to examine whether Asian states will continue with the present pace of their economic growth or lose momentum and undo the change occurring today at the regional and systematic level of international politics. This book has addressed issues ranging from air-power, cyber security, climate change, ballistic missile defence to geo-political and regional issues pertaining to East Asia, South East Asia and South Asia. Based primarily on the method of scenario building, this book is an attempt to discuss the future of critical issues related to security and the international relations of Asia in 2030.

The book deals with the “Strategic Futures” in Asia, pertaining to issues of thematic significance, like future of aerospace-power, trends in the technological development of ballistic missiles defences, and the future of the internet. It also provides a vivid future description on matters of geo-political significance like economics, demography, water resources, nuclear issues, climate change and the environment, governance, and state relation. Given its wide expanse and insightful future analysis on issues of significance particularly to Asia, it attempts to fill some of the critical gaps in the domain of future studies in India.

This document is an attempt by a team of IDSA scholars to look at the past and present trends concerning some critical issues which will be of importance to determine the future. Scenario building exercise, within the limits of their understanding of the subject, is attempted to forecast the likely outcomes.

Contents

Forward
Introduction; Ajey Lele, Namrata Goswami and Rumel Dahiya

Strategic Futures

1. Future of Asian Air Power in 2030: Ramesh Padke
2. Ballistic Missile Defences in 2030: Trends in Technology Development: A. Vinod Kumar
3. The Future of the Internet: Cherian Samuel
4. The Future of Climate Change in Asia: Avinash Godbole
5. Envisioning United States Asia Policy in 2030: Sanjeev Kumar Shrivastav

Geo-Political Futures

South Asia
6. India 2030: With History as Guide: Ali Ahmed
7. Pakistan 2030: Possible Scenarios and Options: Harinder Singh
8. Scenarios 2030: A Long Term View of Hydro Politics in South Asia: Medha Bisht
9. Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir: The Future Trajectory: Priyanka Singh
10. Nepal 2030: Nihar Nayak
11. Tibet 2030: P.K. Gautam
12. Illegal Migration into India: Problem and Prospects: Anand Kumar

West Asia, South East Asia and East Asia
13. West Asia 2030: Drivers and Scenarios: S. Samuel C. Rajiv
14. Southeast Asia-2030: Pankaj Jha
15. Japan as a Normal State: Changing Trends and Future Projection: Pranamita Baruah
16. China 2030: Drivers and Scenarios: Gunjan Singh
17. Strategic Trends and Challenges in East Asia: Ishida Yasuyuki

Panorama: Ajey Lele, Namrata Goswami

About the Authors

Air. Cmde. Ramesh Padke is a retired Air Commodore and is associated with the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
Mr. A. Vinod Kumar is an Associate Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
Dr. Cherian Samuel is an Associate Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
Mr. Avinash Godbole is a Researcher at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
Mr. Sanjeev Kumar Shrivastav is a Researcher at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
Col. (Retd.) Ali Ahmed is a Research Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
Col. Harinder Singh is a Research Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
Dr. Medha Bisht is an Associate Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
Dr. Priyanka Singh is an Associate Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
Dr. Nihar Nayak is an Associate Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
Col. (Retd.) P.K. Gautam is a Research Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
Dr. Anand Kumar is an Associate Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
Mr. S. Samuel C. Rajiv is an Associate Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
Dr. Pankaj Jha is an Associate Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
Ms. Pranamita Baruah is a Researcher at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
Ms. Gunjan Singh is a Researcher at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
Dr. Ishida Yasuyuki was a Visiting Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.

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