Dr. Temjenmeren Ao, Associate Fellow, at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), delivered a presentation on “India-Vietnam Strategic Partnership: Internal and External Dimensions” during the Monday Morning Meeting held on 23 March 2026. Dr. Om Prakash Das, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA, moderated the Session, which was attended by scholars from the Institute.

Executive Summary

The Session reviewed the internal political and external dynamics of the foreign policy of Vietnam, its trajectory and progress of India-Vietnam Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in the last decade (2016-2026) in the light of growing defence cooperation and economic engagement which underpin the multifaceted bilateral relationship between India and Vietnam. Dr. Ao analysed the 14^th Party Congress held in January 2026 which set out revised national and economic priorities and the emergence of Mr. To Lam as Vietnam’s dominant political figure. Linking these internal developments to  foreign policy ramifications, Dr. Ao summarised Vietnamese foreign policy, particularly analysing the foreign policy approach under General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV), Mr. To Lam and also explored Vietnam’s bilateral ties with China and the US, Party to Party ties with China’s CCP, and defence collaboration.     

Detailed Report

In his Opening Remarks, Dr. Om Prakash Das gave a brief historical summary from the late 1970s when full bilateral relationship was established, to upgradation of ties into a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2016, marking 10 years of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between India and Vietnam. The bilateral cooperation among the two countries is multi-faceted and ranges from economic engagement and defence collaboration to energy, space and digital cooperation and the Joint Vision statement of Peace, Prosperity and People, adopted by both the countries in 2020 aims to further strengthen the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. However, Dr. Das also pointed out the asymmetry in trade and economic engagement, with bilateral trade remaining below the target of US$20 billion, among other issues.

Following Dr. Das’s Introductory Remarks, Dr. Temjenmeren Ao presented a detailed account of the India-Vietnam Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and stated that there has been substantial improvement in terms of investments and security cooperation in the last decade, with the India – Vietnam Strategic Partnership being very organic in nature. This was further strengthened by the adoption of the Joint Vision of Peace, Prosperity and People by both the countries in 2020, which emphasised extending co-operation to technology, digitisation, energy, agrarian sectors, and better governance among others. India has extended a Line of Credit (LOC) worth US$500 billion for Vietnam’s defence procurements besides another US $300 million microcredit for maritime security. Moreover, the Joint Vision statement on India-Vietnam Defence Partnership towards 2030, signed in 2022, provides scope to further bolster cooperation on maritime and non-traditional security challenges such as cyber security and terrorism.

Dr. Ao highlighted that bilateral trade from 2014 to 2024 has increased from US$9.2 billion to US$16 billion. India has invested around US$1.9 million in over 460 projects in Vietnam while Vietnam has invested US$14 million, in 16 projects in India. The Vietnamese Conglomerate Vingroup in December 2025 has signed an MOU with the Government of Telangana for a multi-sectoral investment of US$3 billion. Dr. Ao also stated that ASEAN is yet to become a single market which is one of the major causes of India’s widening trade deficit with Vietnam.

Focusing on the internal and external dimensions of this Strategic Partnership, Dr. Ao pointed out that every five years, the Party Congress of the CPV sets out the economic targets and national priorities to be achieved. The 14^th Party Congress held in January 2026, adopted an ambitious target of achieving US$8500 GDP per capita by 2030 and a 10% growth rate starting from this year, in line with making Vietnam a high-income country by 2045. The current GDP of Vietnam is US$4,740, making it the sixth largest country by GDP in Southeast Asia. However, as per the IMF projections, at the current growth rate, by 2030 Vietnam would have a GDP of US$6,320 indicating a gap of over US$2,000 dollars. Besides economic indicators, Dr. Ao also talked about political developments, with Mr. To Lam getting re-elected as the General Secretary of the CPV and emerging as a dominant political figure. Under Mr. To Lam’s leadership, Vietnam is likely to adopt a more decisive and pragmatic approach as it looks to achieve its internal development priorities. Mr. To Lam is placing astronomical growth at the heart of his recipe for success. As the external geopolitical environment becomes more complex on account of further intensification of US-China competition; an unpredictable US trade policy; and the economic fallout of the ongoing war in West Asia, it has prompted a shift in Vietnam’s strategic thinking.

Dr. Ao stated that Vietnam’s foreign policy continues to reflect pragmatic flexibility, with Hanoi seeing Beijing as an important ideological and economic partner considering the close Party to Party ties, while leveraging US to ensure regional balance and curtail China’s assertiveness in the region. Vietnam in the last decade has diversified its partnerships and now has a comprehensive strategic partnership with 14 countries, that includes the United States, China, India, Canada, Australia, and other countries in Southeast Asia. This outreach gives Vietnam the flexibility of not being dependent on a single power, yet ensuring that its national interests and priorities are balanced. Vietnam continues to manage its relations between the US and China, while at the same time diversifying its partnerships, to avoid dependence on any single power. Based on its ‘bamboo diplomacy’ and under Mr To Lam’s pragmatic nationalism, Hanoi is expected to become even more assertive in its expectation from its partners while committing to none. Vietnam is also prioritising defence modernisation that includes restructuring 5,000 of its military units and plans to accelerate its defence industry development. Geo-political uncertainties and security challenges are pushing Vietnam towards deeper international integration through its defence diplomacy with its external partners such as India.

Q &A Session

The presentation was followed by discussion moderated by Dr. O.P. Das. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP- IDSA, observed that while India and Vietnam undoubtedly have good bilateral ties, this cannot be stated as an exceptional partnership, highlighting the absence of any defining breakthrough moments in the last decade, due to structural limitations inherent to Vietnam. One such limitation is Vietnam’s political and strategic orientation towards China, wherein Vietnam’s Party maintains excellent ties with the CCP and hence even in occasional moments of tensions and confrontational disputes in the South China Sea, Vietnam controls such situations, through its Party-to-Party relationship and dialogue. He further noted that Vietnam’s foreign policy anchored in its four NO’s doctrine, a version of non-alignment, infers that Vietnam is unlikely to take overt positions in India’s strategic disputes. He further pointed out that while Vietnam is a partner State, at the same time, it is an economic competitor for India in arenas of global supply chains. Vietnam benefits from trade agreements like RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) among others and is therefore able to attract significant Chinese and Japanese investment. This economic interdependence on China and strong engagement with India’s major partners like Japan, create a structural limit, obstructing further deepening of the India-Vietnam Strategic Partnership.

Other participants raised questions. One query related to the conventional and non-conventional security threats that Vietnam faced. Another question focused on Vietnam’s military modernisation and its border negotiations with China. There were other questions about Vietnam’s perspective on ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ and whether convergence with India in that domain is possible.

Responding to these questions, Dr. Ao stated that conventional threats that Vietnam faces are mainly its borders and securing the disputed islands while it has also faced  the increasing non-conventional threat of terrorism in the last decade. On defence cooperation, Dr. Ao highlighted that 80% of Vietnam’s equipment and military hardware is still based on the Russian platforms which are under sanctions, thereby pushing Vietnam to diversify its partnerships and engage in defence diplomacy, with partners like India. On the Indo-Pacific, he highlighted that while Vietnam did not mention the word prior to 2019 until the ASEAN came out with the AOIP (ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific), it is gradually adopting the term and focusing on it.

In his concluding remarks, Dr Ao emphasised that moving to the next decade, under Mr. To Lam’s pragmatic orientation to achieve vision 2045, Vietnam is seeking diverse external partnerships that would aid it in building these capabilities. Though there are challenges, the India-Vietnam Comprehensive Strategic Partnership has enabled positive developments in their relations, as both sides share strong convergences rooted in achieving their respective national goals.

The Report has been prepared by Mr. Himanshu Kulkarni, Intern, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.