Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik, Research Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), delivered a presentation on “Bangladesh’s Forthcoming Election: Who is Going to Win” during the Monday Morning Meeting held on 9 February 2026. Dr. Gulbin Sultana, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA, moderated the session, which was attended by scholars from the Institute.

Executive Summary

The Session examined the political, economic, and foreign policy implications of the forthcoming Bangladesh Election, which was held on 12 February 2026. Dr. Smruti Pattanaik’s presentation critically analysed the political landscape of Bangladesh, ahead of the crucial Election on 12 February, and focused not just on predicting the winner but rather on examining who will electorally dominate that election, shape the political narrative, and expand their political influence. Dr. Pattanaik explained the importance of the election, wherein, alongside electing a new government, voters will also be voting for the Referendum on the July National Charter 2025, which is being held concurrently with the Parliamentary Election, making it a watershed moment in Bangladesh’s history. She further analysed the politics of Bangladesh by emphasising the critical role and influence of Institutions such as student wings, among others, in gaining political support to provide a comprehensive snapshot of the upcoming Election and its impact on the country’s political trajectory, foreign policy and on India-Bangladesh ties. During the discussion, concerns were raised about the legitimacy of the Election without the participation of one of main political parties – the Awami League, whether there would be violence during the polls, the rise of right-wing politics and role of minorities in the electoral politics and the impact on ties with India, among other issues.       

Detailed Report

Dr. Gulbin Sultana began the Session by briefly recapping events in Bangladesh post 2024 July mass uprising that led to the fall of the Sheikh Hasina Government. The 18-month long interim administration led by Mohammed Yunus was marked by violence towards minorities and Awami League (AL) supporters and a slowdown of the country’s GDP (down to 3.7% in FY25 from 4.2 % in FY24). She further highlighted the current political landscape of the forthcoming Election, wherein the AL, is banned from contesting the elections, Sheikh Hasina’s conviction and death sentence on charges of crimes against humanity by the international crimes’ tribunal, the demise of Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) Leader Khaleda Zia in December 2025 and her son Tarique Rahman leading the party and contesting against the coalition of Jamaat e Islami (JeI) and the student led National Citizen Party (NCP). The Interim Government has also proactively engaged with the US, China and even Pakistan, straining ties with India, all of which underscores the importance of the 12 February Election which would see a total of 2,034 candidates contesting the Election, with 71 independent candidates and nominees of 51 political parties, alongside the vote on the July Charter Referendum too.

Following Dr. Sultana’s Introductory Remarks, Dr. Pattanaik gave a detailed presentation on the thirteenth Parliamentary Election in Bangladesh. Dr. Pattnaik straightaway stated that in the upcoming Election, the burning question is not, ‘who will win the elections’? BNP is expected to win the elections but rather it is their victory margin, that would indicate, ‘which party could capitalise on the July uprising’? If the BNP gets a simple majority, it would be tedious to pass the constitutional reform proposal. She further stated that there are attempts by the Jamaat led coalition to limit BNP’s victory margin with some predicting Jamaat to win at least 126 seats. This is a genuinely worrisome scenario for India, because in the context of a new bicameral legislature, if Jamaat does manage to win 126 seats, then they would dominate the new Upper House too. With reference to Upper House Elections, she stated that there is a debate in Bangladesh. The BNP prefers the Election to the Upper House to be based on seats parties win in the Parliamentary Election which is like India or the PR (proportional representation) like Sri Lanka, wherein even if a party does not win any seats in the Lower House, based on the votes polled, it can still get elected to Parliament.

Dr. Pattanaik analysed the forthcoming Parliamentary Election that is BNP’s 10- party coalition and Jamaat’s 11-party coalition, including the NCP and decoded the election symbols, agenda, and taglines of major parties. She also explained the political economy of Elections in Bangladesh by showing a list of the top 10 richest candidates contesting the elections which clearly demonstrated the dominance of businessmen in Bangladesh’s Parliament. She also highlighted the impact of vote transfer applications which were accepted by the Election Commission that helped in strengthening JeI’s chance of winning particular constituencies. She said that in Bangladesh, the students of political parties always try to takeover student halls which help them to exert influence in universities, their takeover of ferry ghats (river terminals) is also a main source of revenue. Many believe that BNP’s student organisations occupation of Hall and ferry ghats created an impression that party is still following old politics.

Further, Dr. Pattanaik gave a brief overview of Bangladesh’s past milestone Elections, in 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2008. She particularly highlighted the 2001 Election, wherein though BNP won 183 seats, their vote share was just 41.07%, while that of AL which won just 62 seats was 40.13%.  Lastly, with regard to the Referendum, Dr. Pattanaik showed the Referendum form with Yes/No options on which citizens would vote, which does not give much options to the people. For example: some may agree with some part of the reforms but not all. Jamaat campaigned for a Yes vote.

Dr. Pattanaik then focused on the implications of this election on India-Bangladesh ties. She compared Jamaat’s manifesto of having peaceful, friendly relations with neighbouring India and the Muslim world, and it did not mention China or Pakistan. BNP’s manifesto said that the Party does not have any masters, rather Bangladesh is an equal, independent partner. It sought resolution on the Teesta River and other water sharing arrangements and border related issues with India. Lastly, Dr. Pattanaik talked about the role of security forces in the Election, wherein a police force of 50,000 and a 1 lakh strong security force have been deployed for 127 million voters.

Questions and Comments

Dr. Ashok Behuria underlined the scale of the election which would see 127 million (12.7 crore) being eligible for voting and noted the election to be an interesting challenge for India which now needs to recalibrate its foreign policy to deal with BNP, the presumptive winner which remains firm on mutual respect and equality to resolve bilateral issues. Dr. Behuria further raised questions – that, what if Jamaat win more than 100 seats, how would this impact domestic stability since Jamaat has substantial street power.

Dr. Anand Kumar in his comments, highlighted the highly competitive nature of the forthcoming election as the gap between BNP and Jamaat voters has decreased. He also pointed out the softening of BNP’s stance towards India and stated this Election to be an opportunity for India to step up and engage with the BNP and other political parties. Dr. Ashish Shukla raised a question regarding the allegations of rigging in the Elections and the concerns raised about the legitimacy of the forthcoming Election.

Dr. Nihar Nayak questioned India’s generally alarmist perception of Jamaat, even though the latter has moderated its position and remains open to engage with India.

Dr. Priyanka Singh asked whether Jamaat can show itself in a different light ahead of the Election. Another scholar asked about the voting preferences of the minorities in the Election.

Responding to these queries, Dr. Pattanaik answered that it is expected that voters will turn up for voting. Responding about the youth perception of Jamaat, she stated that while Jamaat’s student wing ‘Chhatra Shibir’ won the student body elections, it in no way shows that youth or students would vote in similar way for Jamaat. However, Dr. Pattanaik highlighted Jamaat’s ability to survive and camouflage its identity, as Jamaat’s Shibir infiltrated Awami’s Chhatra League and revealed their identity as Jamaat’s Shibir members, only after the fall of the Sheik Hasina regime and therefore, Jamaat should never be underestimated.

Dr. Pattanaik also said women who account for 50% of total voters, may not vote for Jamaat due to its stance on working women and their Ameer’s statement that women should stay at home and focus on the family. Regarding the legitimacy of Elections, Dr. Pattanaik recalled the controversial 2018 Election which was known as the midnight Election for stuffing of the ballots before Election Day therefore AL non-participation does not make it illegal. On whether Yunus could now become the President, Dr. Pattanaik clearly stated that does not seem possible especially with BNP projected to be in power which does not favour Yunus, unlike the Jamaat. She also mentioned the Bangladesh Army’s eagerness for Elections so that it can leave magisterial duties and return to the barracks. With regard to India’s concerns about Jamaat, despite the latter’s recently moderated outlook, Dr. Pattanaik recalled Jamaat’s links with Pakistan, and its efforts to project itself as moderate. She stated that Jamaat is working to rebrand its political image. With regard to the Hindus and other minorities, Dr. Pattanaik said that the BNP currently seems to be the best alternative for the minorities, and it would be easier for India too to work with BNP, which has been relatively open and honest on minority issues.

Lastly, in her Concluding Remarks, Dr. Pattanaik stated that from a Bangladeshi perspective, 1971 remains relevant, even though some parties are trying to give primacy to the 2024 July Uprising. Jamaat who infamously collaborated with the Pakistan Army in 1971, that resulted in 3 million deaths and did not apologise then, is now asking AL to apologise for the deaths leading to the July uprising.

The Report has been prepared by Mr. Himanshu Kulkarni, Intern, South Asia Centre.