Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, chaired the session. Setting the tone of the session, Amb. Chinoy in his opening remarks outlined a complex geopolitical landscape defined by “8 Ts”: trade, technology, terrorism, territorial disputes, transparency, tenets, trust, and the influence of the Trump administration. He argued that while technology has “imploded” traditional geographic barriers, it has also become a tool for containment and export controls, particularly in the realm of Artificial Intelligence. The DG highlighted India’s leadership in advocating for “AI diffusion” to prevent a new form of “colonisation” of the Global South. On the security front, he observed a shift towards deterrence through strength, with the US seeking to limit China to the “first island chain” and a permanently altered status quo in the South China Sea due to militarisation. Regionally, the DG noted a fractured ASEAN and significant friction between Pakistan and Afghanistan, while positioning India as a “first responder” committed to the stability of maritime neighbours like Sri Lanka and the Maldives. Ultimately, he maintained that in these “parlous and uncertain times,” shared values and principles are becoming as important as geography in defining modern neighbourhoods. which are shaping the present geopolitics today.

The objective of the fifth session was to comprehend geopolitics in an around Indian Ocean region, where five different speakers shared their thoughts.

Dr. Jabin Jacob, Associate Professor, Shiv Nadar University, shared his thoughts on “Sagar to Mahasagar:  China in the way” by emphasising that China assertive foreign policy is driven mainly by the Communist Party for political survival. It discussed China’s cultural and educational investments around the world including language training and archaeological projects and its influence on political parties and governance practices in several countries.

• On the concept of party-state, he underscored that the communist party of China’s sole aim is survival. He outlined that for any country, the standard concerns are: sovereignty and economic growth. But for China, it is about political control, where the Chinese government puts a lot of its effort to control its citizens, expatriates and diaspora through political training and cultural hegemony.
• On Chinese media and cultural hegemony, Prof Jacob highlighted the extensive outreach of the Chinses media and publications in multiple languages and the Chinese government’s control over media content to ensure a sanitised portrayal of China outside.
• On China’s interaction with political parties in other states, Dr. Jacob underlined that the CCP has a dedicated department to deal with political parties in other countries.
• On cultural and historical efforts, China has made extensive investments in language training and cultural promotions in various countries and involved in archaeological projects and rewriting of history in South Asia.
• On China’s global South rhetoric, he said that although China supports the global south in multilateral forums, there is discrepancy between what China states publicly and how it behaves in international organisations. Hence, to understand Chinese influence and intentions better, one needs to critically analyse China claims and actions.

Prof. Shahab Enam Khan, spoke on “Beyond hedging and balancing: Bangladesh geo-economic statecraft in an era of transactional multiporlarity” where he argued that Bangladesh’s evolving foreign policy is a necessary structural adaptation to a transforming international and regional order, driven by “economic necessity” and “regional institutional failure”, rather than its strategic ambition or ideological choice. He posited that Bangladesh was moving towards ‘strategic autonomy’ through transactional relations in a post-liberal, transactional multipolar environment.

• On the shifting global and regional landscape, Prof. Khan underlined the key drivers are: US, China, EU, pursuit of strategic autonomy and the erosion of multilateral institutions like the WTO, IMF, World Bank and the rise of AIIB.
• Several reasons underpinned the reason for the Bangladesh to pursue transregional partnerships. The major factors include paralysis of SAARC, underperformance of BIMSTC, persistent Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) and geographical constraints. Hence, due to institutional failure, it necessitates Bangladesh to pursuit transregional partnerships e.g., RCEP, BRICS, QUAD, and Africa.
• Prof Khan also underscored the factors that Bangladesh economic growth can no longer insulated from security consideration. The three major factors are instability in India’s Northeast, which is compounded by anti-Bangladesh narratives; Myanmar’s prolonged civil conflict and global geo-economics transformation which is mainly fuelled by unilateral imposition of tariffs by the United States.
• On the implication of July Movement 2024, Prof Khan termed it as a ‘watershed’ moment, which ended the fifteen years of authoritarian governance and consequently altered Bangladesh’s political consciousness, fostering a new national narrative centred on strategic autonomy and sovereign decision-making. However, this shift has implication for bilateral relations, especially with India, Pakistan and Myanmar.
• Thus, Bangladesh’s foreign policy recalibration, according to Prof. Khan, is a rational structural adaptation to a post-liberal, transactional multipolar order. Its “development-first” orientation now requires navigating a geo-economic landscape where security and economics are intrinsically intertwined. In fact, the July Movement has reinforced popular demand for sovereign decision-making, ensuring that future relations with all neighbours will be transactional and interest-based, seeking mutual benefit rather than ideological alignment.

Dr. Juvence F. Ramsay, Senior Lecturer, the University of Toamasina in Madagascar, shared his thoughts on Madagascar’s strategic position in the Indian Ocean.

• On Madagascar’s diplomatic strategy and regional involvement, Dr. Ramsay highlighted the conduct of its military and diplomatic strategies since 1970s. The ‘Fiavan’ Principle is an important feature for Madagascar policy which promotes solidarity unity and peace, similar to Indian concept of ‘Vasudeva kutumbakam.
• He also stated that Madagascar maintained a balanced relationship with regional and extra-regional partners like France, US, China and Russia, in different areas of cooperation such as agriculture, education, culture energy and security.
• On challenges and opportunities in Indian Ocean region, he highlighted the importance of deep-sea bed resources and mining where multiple actors are involved. The impact of deep sea, however, cannot be ignored with potential risks to fish and other aquatic species.
• On future prospects, Dr. Ramsay underscored that Madagascar’s geopolitical balancing act is crucial for its energy security and development.

Mr. Muhammad Waffa Kharisma, Centre for Strategic and international Studies, Indonesia, shared his thoughts on diversification of cooperation with reference to India and ASEAN relations in Indo-Pacific, where he underlined that the Indo-Pacific is experiencing growing great power rivalry, leading to fragmentation, overlapping partnerships, and challenges to the strategic autonomy of medium and smaller powers like ASEAN member states. In the backdrop of fragmentation in Indo-Pacific, Mr. Kharisma argued the needs of strategic diversification to achieve strategic autonomy, which involves widening strategic options and reducing over-dependence on any single power.

• On ASEAN–India cooperation, India’s engagement with ASEAN is characterised by a preference for functional, issue-based cooperation over deep institutional embedding, distinguishing it from partners like Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Australia, who invest heavily in ASEAN’s institutional mechanisms.
• On the potential areas of functional cooperation, the key areas includes defence modernisation; maritime security; industrial diversification and energy transition in solar energy, biofuels, small modular reactors, and critical minerals; Digital Public Infrastructure and Cybersecurity and Healthcare and Clinical Research Capacity.
• While cementing cooperation, however, he was cautious that relying too much on functionalism risks shallow cooperation and a fragmented regional architecture if it is not part of a clearer, coherent ASEAN-wide strategy for managing external partnerships. Finally, he said that ASEAN-India relations will be properly situated within their diversification strategy, it can play a meaningful role in sustaining ASEAN’s strategic autonomy amid growing uncertainty in the Indo-Pacific.

Mr. Amara Thiha, Non-resident Fellow, China Program, Stimson Center, spoke on Myanmar’s coastal frontier and Indian Ocean security, where profound strategic transformation in Myanmar’s civil war since the February 2021 military coup, has shifted its center of gravity from traditional highland insurgency zones to the strategically significant coastal regions, particularly Rakhine State and the Tanintharyi Region.

• Following the consolidation of power in Rankine state, the Arakan Army (AA) have established a proto-state, and by early 2026, it controls 14 of Rakhine’s 17 townships and much of its coastline. Thus, in the backdrop strategic transformation, several seaports have become sites for geopolitical competition:

(1). Sittwe: India’s Kaladana Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project gateway, is now encircled by the AA, creating a dilemma for New Delhi that balances its formal recognition of the junta with operational realities of AA control.

(2). Kyaukphyu: China’s maritime gateway for the China–Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), vital for energy security. The AA controls surrounding territory but refrains from direct capture, while China has leveraged Myanmar’s Private Security Services Law (PSSL) 4/2025 to deploy armed foreign (Chinese) private security firms, blurring lines of sovereignty.

(3). Dawei: Russia’s emergent strategic anchor in the Andaman Sea, supported by growing military cooperation, arms transfers, and joint naval exercises (Marumex-2025) aimed at establishing a sustained maritime presence, despite persistent local insurgency.

• Erosion of governance has enabled a rapid expansion of illicit maritime-centered economies. He talked about Methamphetamine ‘Golden Seaway’, and said Myanmar was the global center of synthetic drug production, with increasing reliance on maritime routes through the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea to reach markets in Asia and beyond, driven by sheer volume and weak maritime enforcement. It has also given rise to cyber-scam, where Industrial-scale cyber fraud operations (investment, cryptocurrency scams) have been thrive in remote coastal areas, protected by junta-aligned militias, relying on trafficked labour and generating billions annually while posing severe humanitarian risks.
• On the broader implication from such transformation of strategic shift, he said it has fuelled humanitarian crisis, where millions have been displaced and are in need of assistance, exacerbated by natural disasters, with aid access severely constrained by conflict and fragmented authority. It demands new approaches from regional and international policymakers (India, China, and ASEAN).

Q&A session:

• On China’s debt-trap, its Global Initiatives and emphasis on people-to-people relations, it was stated that on the issue of debt-trap and global initiatives, maintaining accountability was vital. On the other hand, legitimate interaction between people to people was essential to understand each other and this would contribute to cultural and economic development.
• On India-Japan cooperation in ASEAN countries, the potential area to enter cooperation includes oil and gas exploration and critical minerals.
• On potential security cooperation in and around South East Asian Region, cooperation on sea cable hold promise due to the increasing risk of state-sponsored attacks.

Take away Points   

• China’s foreign policy has been shaped by the ‘survival’ needs of the Chinese Communist Party.
• Bangladesh’s evolving foreign policy is a necessary structural adaptation to a transforming international and regional order, driven by “economic necessity” and “regional institutional failure”, rather than strategic ambition or ideological choice.
• Madagascar’s geopolitical balancing act based on the principle of ‘Fiavan’ which promotes solidarity unity and peace is crucial for its strategic energy and development in the Indian Ocean region.
• Consolidation of power by the Arakan Army in the Rankine state of Myanmar has only fuelled geopolitical competition around the seaports in the Indian Ocean region.

Prepared by: Dr. Opangmeren Jamir