13th Asian Security Conference on “Towards A New Asian Order”

The onset of the ‘Asian Century’ requires fresh thinking on regional architectures in Asia. Will these be able to deliver on the promise of the future? What needs to be done, and can be done, to enable this? Given the conflictual history attending the rise of powers in Europe, the timely development of pan-Asian frameworks could help in constructing a different future. The conference aims to examine efficacy of existing structures and probe Asian thinking on making the future benign for Asia and the world. The Conference would be a useful step in conceptualising a new pan Asian order, even as it, in the main, surveys existing capacities against possibilities. The aim is to visualise a pan-Asian framework for addressing security challenges and for facilitating cooperation.

The Conference is designed to address both traditional and non-traditional security issues in their political, social and economic dimensions. It does so in five subthemes. The first day will be devoted to geopolitical dynamics and associated traditional security issues. The second day will focus on geo-economics and non-traditional security themes. On the last day, an attempt will be made to ‘discover’ an ‘Asian Way’, drawing on Asian cultures and traditions while keeping world order imperatives in mind. The subthemes are

• Subtheme 1: The Geopolitics of Asia
• Subtheme 2: Traditional Security Challenges
• Subtheme 3: Globalization and the Rise of Asia
• Subtheme 4: Non-traditional Security Challenges
• Subtheme 5: Managing the Challenges

The key questions to form the backdrop of particular sessions are:

• What are the implications of rising powers in Asia for the powers themselves, for external powers and for the region?
• How can the fruits of the economic miracles in Asia be preserved?
• What are the variants if any to the traditional security paradigm?
• Can cooperative security deliver on non-traditional security challenges?
• Is it premature to think of ‘One Asia’?

A detailed look at Asia and its potentiality will be done in five separate sessions.

Subtheme 1: The Geopolitics of Asia
Asian and External powers

Asia, comprising as it does, the regions of West Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, South East Asia and East Asia, is at the centre stage of global events and at the fulcrum of the global power shift. A number of issue require attention: implications of the rise of China and India; enduring conflicts in West Asia; the continuing military entanglements of the US; access and control of resources of Central Asia; expansion of security regimes in Asia-Pacific. The questions for this subtheme are:

• Can the rise of Asian powers continue as ‘benign’ and ‘peaceful’?
• What are the prospects of cooperation and conflict?
• Can the current Asian architectures manage the future?
• What is the status and role of US, Russia and Australia as ‘Asian powers’?
• How can existing faultlines be managed

Subtheme 2: Traditional Security Challenges
Nuclear Proliferation, Terrorism, Maritime Security

The maturing strictures against aggression, nuclear backdrop to conflicts between major powers, lethality and costs of modern weapons, and the spread of globalisation have made military power usable mostly for purposes of deterrence. Threats exist less from direct military confrontations between states than from non-state actors acting either autonomously or under state sponsorship. The traditional security domain has changed. Asia, therefore, needs to take note and reshape its military profile accordingly. The questions for this session are:

• How serious and urgent are traditional ‘threats’?
• What is the scope for cooperative security?
• What are the determinants of ‘freedom of the seas’?
• What is the scope for military diplomacy, engagement and confidence building?
• What are prospects for arms control and disarmament regimes?
• What is the continuing utility and future of nuclear weapons in Asia?

Subtheme 3: Globalization and the Rise of Asia
Asia and the World Economy

Can one visualise a non-realist future for Asia, one based on growing interdependence? The capitalist model of consumption has its perils in being unsustainable, unless tempered by Asian traditions of abnegation. The two continent-sized states, China and India, are justifiably catering to their growing populations. However, they have to face up to the limits of growth. Competition for access to resources and markets in Asia and elsewhere has the potential to disrupt relationships. The recent economic shocks indicate inherent fragility of the global economic order. Can important lessons in growth with equity be learnt from the ‘Asian Tigers’? The session will attempt answer the following:

• How central is China’s economic growth the key to Asia’s economic future?
• What are the roles of the Chinese, Indian and Japanese economies in the Asian and global economic order?
• Can the US-Chinese economic relationship be sustained indefintely?
• What is the role of regional organisations in the evolving Asian economic order?
• How can Asia cope with future economic crises?

Subtheme 4: Non-traditional Security Challenges
The Asian Commons, Water, Energy, Technological Frontiers, Democratisation

Non-traditional security thinking is displacing traditional modes given that these challenges are both ubiquitous and more demanding. They have the potential to both mitigate and aggravate depending on how they are approached. Given population densities, social disparities, expanding urban clusters and the fragility of an environment under assault from economic growth, the future could be very bleak. The opportunity for turning it around through enlightened moderation of aspirations, application of technology, creating responsive policing organisations and by democratisation, is now. The conference will dwell on such issues as:

• How can the Himalayan ecosystem be managed better?
• What are ‘best practices’ in managing water conflicts?
• Is there a pan Asian solution to future energy security?
• What contribution can an Asian regional architecture make?
• How can technology be harnessed for the new Asian century?
• What is the future of democracy and democratisation in Asia?

Subtheme 5: Managing the Challenges
Regional Groupings, Intra- and Inter-Regional Linkages

Visualising a benign future helps in the creation of structures to bring about more cooperation in future. The ‘Asian’ input, relying on a cultural legacy of centuries, needs expansion. The continent currently views itself in multiple ‘regions’ that have regional structures of varying efficacy to integrate and mellow nationalisms. It is an idea only geographically. In such a circumstance, would broaching a pan Asian concept be premature? The following questions will animate this session:

• Is it possible to draw a normative ‘Asian Way’ from Asian cultural streams?
• What can be learnt from the European experience of political, military and economic integration?
• Is there a case for evolving a pan-Asian concept?
• Is a pan Asian political and economic order discernible?
• What are the prospects for greater economic integration across Asia?
• How can existing structures be enhanced?

Day 1
16 February 2011

0915-1000h: Registration

1000-1400h
Session 1: The Geopolitics of Asia

Chairperson – Mr. Siddharth Varadarajan

1000-1100 (First half)

• Vincent Wang – The Rise of China, the Rise of India, and the Changing Geopolitics of Asia
• Masako Ikegami – Challenges of Rising China: A New Cold War or Neo-Imperialism?

1100-1200h Keynote Session

1100h-1105h – Welcome of Hon’ble Minister of Defence, Shri AK Antony
1105-1110h – Welcome address by DG, IDSA, Mr. NS Sisodia
1110-1125h – Inaugural Address by Hon’ble Minister of Defence and President, IDSA, Shri AK Antony
1125-1130h – Vote of Thanks by Dr. Arvind Gupta, Lal Bahadur Shastri Chair, IDSA
1130h-1200h – Tea

1200-1400 Session 1 continues

• Bakhtier Khakimov – Building of a new architecture of security and cooperation in Asia: Russian vision
• Mumin Chen – Realist and Pragmatic Elements in China’s Grand Strategy: Assessments of China’s Relations with Japan, Taiwan, and India
• Prakash Menon – Indo-Pak relations and the Balance of Emotions

1300h-1400h – Discussion/Q&A

1400h-1500h – Lunch

1500h-1730h
Session 2: Traditional Security Challenges

Chairperson – Lt Gen (Retd) S Nambiar

• Paul Salem – Building Cooperation in West Asia (On Skype)
• Joseph Liow – The East Asia Summit and the Security Architecture in the Asia-Pacific
• Tetsuo Kotani – Maritime Security in Asia
• V Gundlupet – Nuclear Threats and Diplomacy: An Analysis of Indian, Pakistani and Chinese Use of Nuclear Threats
• Saleem Shahzad – Lessons from Pakistan’s Counter -terrorism Policy for Asia

1645h-1730h – Discussion/Q&A (Tea will be available in foyer 1630h-1700h)

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Day 2

17 February 2011

0930h-1300h
Session 3: Globalization and the Rise of Asia

Chairperson – Dr. Sanjaya Baru

• Niklas Swanström – Globalization and the rise of Asia
• Sean M. Lynn-Jones – Globalization and Asian Security: Promise or Peril?
• Sumit Ganguly – The Obama Administration and South Asia
• Zhang Zhenjiang – West European Integration and East Asian Regionalism: What we can learn and what we cannot learn?
• Arshin Adib-Moghaddam – Iranian-American relations and the future security architecture in western Asia
• Atul Aneja – Implications of Developments in the Arab World

1130-1145h – Tea

1145-1300h – Discussion/Q&A

1300h-1400h – Lunch

1400h-1715h
Session 4: Non-traditional Security Challenges

Chairperson – Dr. Radha Kumar

• Syed Iqbal Hasnain – The Geopolitics of Himalayan-Tibetan Glacier Melt
• Uttam Sinha – Himalayan Hydrology and the Hydropolitics
• Xia Liping – Energy security and Asian regional architecture
• Tai Ming Cheung – Economics, Security and Technology in Northeast Asia: Maneuvering Between Nationalist and Globalist Forces
• Yaacov Vertzberger – Towards an Architecture of a Global Disaster-Management-Regime A Roadmap
• Iqbal Singh Sevea – ‘Regulating’ Islam in the Asian State

1600-1615h Tea

1615h-1715h – Discussion/Q&A

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Day 3

18 February 2011

0930-1245h
Session 5: Managing the Challenges

Chairperson – Amb. Leela K. Ponappa

• Robert Art – US-China Relations and Implications for India (On Skype)
• William Thompson – Long Term Asian Patterns of Conflict
• Alexander Lukin – Russia and Geopolitics of Asia
• Mustafa Aydin – Developments and changes since the end of the cold war: West Asia and Central Asia
• Arvind Gupta – How India is managing its Asian Challenge

1130h-1145h – Tea
1145h-1255h – Discussion/Q&A

1300h-1330h
Closing Session

Chairperson: N. S. Sisodia
Closing Address – Amb. Shivshankar Menon, NSA
Vote of Thanks
1330h Group Photograph of participants
Lunch