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The objective of the 12th Asian Security Conference 2010 is to explore in some depth key drivers of change in Asia and examine possible trends, scenarios and alternatives, which can affect geopolitics and security environment. The idea is not so much to engage in an exercise to predict the future as it is to scan the emerging geo-political terrain and offer some guide posts to planners, policy makers and those interested in international politics and security.
The conference will have nine inter-related sessions focused on understanding the key drivers of change and imagining alternative scenarios of Asia’s future. While the timeline of 2030 is a useful method indicating a particular frame of reference, it is not expected to be viewed rigidly and scholars could make their projections for Asia’s future covering roughly above the period.
The clutch of inter-related issues identified for the different sessions are: Session I: Economic Growth, Globalisation, Poverty and Equity. Session II : Climate Change, Environment, Energy, Water and Resources. Session III: Demography, Migration and Urbanization. Session IV : Transformational Technologies and their Impact on Society. Session V : Asian Militaries and the Future of War. Session VI : WMD Weapons and International Security. Session VII : Society, Identity, Religion, and Governance. Session VIII : Geo-Politics in Asia: Country Perspectives. Session IX : Asia 2030: Alternative Scenarios. The key questions addressed across the sessions could include among others:
Session I Theme: Economic Growth, Globalization, Poverty and Equity
Under the globalization process, many Asian countries with their liberal economic policies, large domestic savings and substantial private capital inflows have grown rapidly. Although globalization has brought economic dividends, it has also adversely impacted Asian economies. Economic disparities, downturn, and unemployment are a few negative consequences.
Some of the questions that could be addressed during the session are:-
Session II Theme: Climate Change, Environment, Energy, Water and Resources
Climate change is regarded as one of the gravest non-traditional security threats faced by the international community today. Climate change may have profound implications for environment; energy; water resources; human settlements, urbanization, infrastructure and even military operations.
The session is proposed to be devoted to addressing, inter-alia, the following key questions:-
Session III Theme: Demography, Migration and Urbanization In the last few decades, most countries in Asia have experienced a demographic transition more rapid than any other region. Falling mortality and fertility rates, declining youth dependency rate and rising old-age dependency rate, etc. will have potentially serious economic implications for the region’s future. Spatial mobility is predicted to be on the rise in Asia in the coming years, particularly in the spheres of occupational mobility and rural to urban mobility. If such prediction becomes a reality, most of the countries in Asia, including India and China will cease to be rural majority countries in the next 30/40 years. In the long run, all these will eventually have negative impact on food security for the highly populous countries like India and China. The key questions for this session could include:
Session IV: Theme: Transformational Technologies and their Impact on Society The 20th century witnessed many significant technological breakthroughs, particularly in sectors of communication, transportation and medical sciences. The last few decades of that century were dominated by miraculous developments in information technology. From telephones to computers, cars to state-of-the art aircrafts, high altitude balloons to spacecrafts, e-dictionaries to Internet and vaccines to stem cell research dominated the field of technology development. The 21st century began with the birth of aerospace technology and ended up revolutionizing the war doctrines of various militaries. New technologies in the areas of information technology, space, solar power, robotics, nanotechnology, biotechnology, genetic engineering etc. are likely to shape the future of humankind.
The key questions to be addressed in this session could be:-
Session V: Theme: Asian Militaries and the Future of War As the ideological fencing of the Cold War period withered away, primordial fault lines have raised their head in the last two decades giving birth to multiple numbers of non-state actors who have continuously defied the modern nation states. As a result, at present, state centric inter-state conflicts are increasingly being replaced by intra-state cultural, psychological or economic conflicts initiated by non-state actors. The future prospects of security therefore appear uncertain in which both state as a conventional source of security threat, and non-state actors – independently or with the covert support of some states–will play their parts. Since the changes that have been observed in the post-Cold War era are still in the process of unfolding themselves, the future course of wars and the shape of militaries remain valid subjects of study.
The key questions that could be addressed in this session are:-
Session VI: Theme: WMD Weapons and International Security The spread of WMDs-chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) – poses one of the most serious threats to international security because of their capacity for catastrophic destruction through a single attack. A number of nuclear powers (China, India, Pakistan, North Korea) and the world’s most advanced threshold nuclear states (South Korea, Japan and Taiwan) are situated in Asia. Over the years, despite various efforts to check nuclear proliferation, the technological barriers of acquiring nuclear weapons appear to be weakening. In fact, for even weak and isolated countries like North Korea, nuclear weapons have come to be treated as the only strategic ‘equalizer’ available to them to check US influence in the region.
Session VII: Theme: Society, Identity, Religion and Governance While the end of the Cold War diminished the role of ideology in international politics, issues of society, identity, religion and governance have come to the forefront. Cultural fault-lines appear to be growing and religion in particular has acquired centre-stage in the anti-modernity and anti-modern-state discourse. Asian societies are seriously grappling with the challenge of reconciling individual and civil rights and yet developing as a strong state without paying a heavy price for their stability and prosperity.
Key questions for this session could be:-
Session VIII: Theme: Geo-Politics in Asia: Country Perspectives The 21st century is projected to be the Asian century, as future peace and stability in Asia and the world are likely to be determined by the policies to be pursued by five powers (India, China, Japan, Russia and the US), for whom Asia is the meeting ground. The US’s extensive political, economic and security interests, and its overwhelming military presence in Asia makes it an important player in the region’s politics. As a major producer and exporter of critical energy resources, Russia also enjoys a major role in determining Asian security. In recent years, Japan too has begun to play a major role in regional and global affairs commensurate with its economic status. The rise of China and India, and their expanding strategic reach and ambitions on the global stage could result in competition between them over power, influence and energy resources.
Session IX: Theme: Asia 2030: Alternative Scenarios This session will attempt to analyse the key factors/drivers (of change) impinging upon Asia’s future in 2030 based on the discussions on themes of the conference in the previous sessions. The identification of the key factors/drivers will be utilized to project and describe, if not predict, three to four future scenarios for Asia in 2030. These scenarios would have a high degree of uncertainty tagged to them. No matter how refined our methods in social science may become, we cannot escape from the fact that all our knowledge is based on the past and present while all our policy decisions are about the future. Therefore, studying the future is mostly an activity based on conjectures. In this regard, the method of scenario-building could be employed to grasp a whole range of forces, factors, and possibilities that we could take note of while planning for the future of Asia in the next two decades.
Day 1 (11 Feb 2010) 0900h-0930h: Registration
0930h-1115h: Session I Theme : Economic Growth, Globalisation, Poverty & Equity Chair: Mr. K. Subrahmanyam Paper I: Relative Growth of Nations: A View in the Mirror of History: Prof. Nayan Chanda Paper II: Future of Globalization and Neo-Liberal Trade: Mr. Mohan Guruswamy Paper III: State of Poverty, Equity and Perceptions of Justice: Dr. Amita Baviskar Paper IV: State of Critical Infrastructure: Dr. Adrian V. Gheorghe
1115h-1145h: Tea
1145h-1330h: Session II Theme : Climate Change, Environment, Energy, Water and Resources Chair: Amb. C Dasgupta Paper I: Asian Energy Scenarios: 2030: Dr. Anshu Bharadwaj Paper II: Energy Resource Competition: 2030: Mr. Ruth Greenspan Bell Paper II: Climate Change and Implications for Security: Dr. Stephan Harrison Paper III: Water Insecurity and its Implications for Asia: Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha
1330h-1400h: Keynote Address by Hon’ble Defence Minister of India, Shri A. K. Antony
1400h-1500h: Lunch
1500h-1645h: Session III Theme: Demography, Migration & Urbanization Chair: Prof. P R Chari Paper I: The Geopolitical Implications of Global Aging: Prof. Phillip Longman Paper II: Population Movements and Diaspora: Prof. Judith Brown Paper III: Rural Urban Divide and Urbanization: Implications for Security : Mr. Narendra Sisodia and Dr. Sarita Azad Paper IV: Pandemics and its consequences for the Future of Asia: Dr. Ali Karami
1645h: Tea
Day 2 (12 Feb 2010)
0900-1045h: Session IV Theme : Transformational Technologies & their Impact on Society Chair: Mr. K Santhanam Paper I: Technology Scenario in 2030: Dr. Virginia B. Watson Paper II: Cyber Security challenges for Asia in a 2030 time frame: Dr. Roland Heickerö Paper III: Future of Asian Space Powers: Wg Cdr Ajey Lele Paper IV: Renewable Technologies and their Impact on Society : Mr. David E. Fuente
1045h-1115h: Tea
1115h-1315h: Session V Theme : Asian Militaries and the Future of War Chair: Air Comde. (Retd.) Jasjit Singh Paper I: War in 2030: Prof. Martin Van Crevald Paper II: Asian Armies: Dr. Yong-Sup Han Paper III: Asian Air Powers in 2030: Col. John P Geis Paper IV: Asian Navies: Dr. Vijay Sakhuja Paper V: Defence R & D in Asia: Achievements & Future Directions: Ms. Nabnita Krishnan
1315h-1415h: Lunch
1415h-1600h: Session VI Theme : WMD Weapons & International Security Chair: Amb. Satish Chandra Paper I: Relevance of Nuclear Weapons in the 21st century: Prof. Pervez Hoodbhoy Paper II: Asian Security, Chinese and Indian Power, and Nuclear Non-proliferation: Prof. Sumit Ganguly and Prof. David P. Fidler Paper III: Nuclear Terrorism: Mr. Charles P. Blair and Dr. Gary Ackerman Paper IV: CBRN Terrorism: Ms. Angela Woodword
1600h-1630h: Tea
1630h-1815h: Session VII Theme : Society, Identity, Religion and Governance Chair: Prof. Zoya Hasan Paper I: Social Trends of the Future: Prof. T.K. Oomen Paper II: Identity Politics and Nationalism: Prof. Catarina Kinnvall Paper III: Religious Trends in Asia and Extremism: Dr. Bilveer Singh Paper IV: The Future of Terrorism: Dr. Walid Phares
Day 3 (13 Feb 2010)
0900h-1110h: Session VIII Theme : Geo-Politics in Asia: Country Perspectives Chair: Mr. K. Subrahmanyam Paper I: The Geopolitics of Asia in 2030: An American Perspective: Prof. Aaron Friedberg Paper II: China and India: Geopolitical Center of Asia in 2030: Dr. Li Li Paper III: Asia 2030: A View from Japan: Dr. Makoto Iokibe Paper IV: Russia’s Asia policy in 2030: Dr. Stanislav Tkachenko Paper V: Asia 2030: A View from India: Prof. Amitabh Mattoo
1110h-1130h: Tea
1130h-1330h: Session IX Theme: Asia 2030: Alternative Scenarios Chair: Mr. Pradeep Kumar Paper I: Role of Multi-lateral Institutions: Certain Scenarios: Amb. Sudhir T Devare Paper II: The Geo-politics of Asia in 2030 from China’s Perspective and Interest: Dr. Chien-peng Chung Paper III: Hegemony or Balance of Power? Regional Order and Conflict in a Transforming Asia: Prof. John Ikenberry Paper IV: Is Conflict Inevitable in Asia?: Dr. Namrata Goswami Paper V: Asian Futures 2030: Global Strategic Trends – Alternative Scenarios: Cdr. Steve Aiken
1330h-1345h: Closing Remarks
1345h-1400h: Group Photograph
